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International trends in traditional diabetes complications (cardiovascular, renal, peripheral vascular, ophthalmic, hepatic or neurological diseases) and mortality rates are poorly characterised. An earlier review of studies published up to 2015 demonstrated that most data come from a dozen high-income countries (HICs) in North America, Europe or the Asia–Pacific region and that, in these countries at least, rates of acute glycaemic fluctuations needing medical attention and amputations, myocardial infarction and mortality were all declining over the period. Here, we provide an updated review of published literature on trends in type 2 diabetes complications and mortality in adults since 2015. We also discuss issues related to data collection, analysis and reporting that have influenced global trends in type 2 diabetes and its complications. We found that most data on trends in type 2 diabetes, its complications and mortality come from a small number of HICs with comprehensive surveillance systems, though at least some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from Africa and Latin America are represented in this review. The published data suggest that HICs have experienced declines in cardiovascular complication rates and all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. In parallel, cardiovascular complications and mortality rates in people with diabetes have increased over time in LMICs. However, caution is warranted in interpreting trends from LMICs due to extremely sparse data or data that are not comparable across countries. We noted that approaches to case ascertainment and definitions of complications and mortality (numerators) and type 2 diabetes (the denominator) vary widely and influence the interpretation of international data. We offer four key recommendations to more rigorously document trends in rates of type 2 diabetes complications and mortality, over time and worldwide: (1) increasing investments in data collection systems; (2) standardising case definitions and approaches to ascertainment; (3) strengthening analytical capacity; and (4) developing and implementing structured guidelines for reporting of data.

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study that is now reported in the Journal offers a discouraging reminder that the global obesity epidemic is worsening in most parts of the world and that its implications regarding both physical health and economic health remain ominous. 1 The study, in which researchers assembled data from 195 countries to model trends in overweight and obesity and related morbidity and mortality, showed that the prevalence of obesity has more than doubled since 1980 and is now 5% in children and 12% in adults — findings that mirror similar global trends in type 2 diabetes. Apart . . .

AbstractObjectiveTo assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes.DesignSystematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines.Data sourcesMedline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications.Eligibility criteriaStudies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year.ResultsAmong the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively.ConclusionsThe incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different.Systematic review registrationProspero CRD42018092287.

Aims/hypothesis We examined the association of attainment of diabetes remission in the context of a 12 year intensive lifestyle intervention with subsequent incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and CVD. Methods The Look AHEAD study was a multi-centre RCT comparing the effect of a 12 year intensive lifestyle intervention with that of diabetes support and education on CVD and other long-term health conditions. We compared the incidence of CVD and CKD among 4402 and 4132 participants, respectively, based on achievement and duration of diabetes remission. Participants were 58% female, and had a mean age of 59 years, a duration of diabetes of 6 year and BMI of 35.8 kg/m 2 . We applied an epidemiological definition of remission: taking no diabetes medications and having HbA 1c <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at a single point in time. We defined high-risk or very high-risk CKD based on the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria, and CVD incidence as any occurrence of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction, stroke, admission for angina or CVD death. Results Participants with evidence of any remission during follow-up had a 33% lower rate of CKD (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52, 0.87) and a 40% lower rate of the composite CVD measure (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.47, 0.79) in multivariate analyses adjusting for HbA 1c , BP, lipid levels, CVD history, diabetes duration and intervention arm, compared with participants without remission. The magnitude of risk reduction was greatest for participants with evidence of longer-term remission. Conclusions/interpretation Participants with type 2 diabetes with evidence of remission had a substantially lower incidence of CKD and CVD, respectively, compared with participants who did not achieve remission. This association may be affected by post-baseline improvements in weight, fitness, HbA 1c and LDL-cholesterol. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00017953 Data availability https://repository.niddk.nih.gov/studies/look-ahead/ Graphical Abstract

The incidence of early-onset type 2 diabetes is increasing, with a growing number of cases now occurring in children, adolescents, and young adults. This transition is primarily driven by the rising prevalence of obesity in younger populations, especially in high-income countries. However, the relationship between obesity and early-onset type 2 diabetes varies across ethnic groups, with some populations exhibiting a higher risk at lower BMI thresholds, possibly due to differences in insulin resistance and β-cell function. Socioeconomic factors further shape disease patterns, with early-onset type 2 diabetes disproportionately affecting lower-income populations in high-income settings, whereas in low-income and middle-income countries, economic development and urbanisation have contributed to increasing incidence among more affluent groups. The consequences of this transition to early-onset type 2 diabetes are severe, with accelerated disease progression, heightened risks of microvascular and macrovascular complications, and considerable societal and health-care burdens compared with later-onset disease. Given the continuing rise in childhood and adolescent obesity, the incidence of early-onset type 2 diabetes is expected to increase further, placing mounting pressure on health-care systems worldwide. In the first of three papers in this Series, we examine global trends in the incidence and prevalence of early-onset type 2 diabetes, identify key drivers of this transition to diagnosis at younger ages, and review the evidence for risk factors both at population and individual level.

Despite smaller effect sizes, interventions delivered at population level to prevent non-communicable diseases generally have greater reach, impact and equity than those delivered to high-risk groups. Nevertheless, how to shift population behaviour patterns in this way remains one of the greatest uncertainties for research and policy. Evidence about behaviour change interventions that are easier to evaluate tends to overshadow that for population-wide and system-wide approaches that generate and sustain healthier behaviours. Population health interventions are often implemented as natural experiments, which makes their evaluation more complex and unpredictable than a typical randomised controlled trial (RCT). We discuss the growing importance of evaluating natural experiments and their distinctive contribution to the evidence for public health policy. We contrast the established evidence-based practice pathway, in which RCTs generate ‘definitive’ evidence for particular interventions, with a practice-based evidence pathway in which evaluation can help adjust the compass bearing of existing policy. We propose that intervention studies should focus on reducing critical uncertainties, that non-randomised study designs should be embraced rather than tolerated and that a more nuanced approach to appraising the utility of diverse types of evidence is required. The complex evidence needed to guide public health action is not necessarily the same as that which is needed to provide an unbiased effect size estimate. The practice-based evidence pathway is neither inferior nor merely the best available when all else fails. It is often the only way to generate meaningful evidence to address critical questions about investing in population health interventions.

The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study showed that weight loss in high-risk adults lowered diabetes incidence and cardiovascular disease risk. No prior analyses have aggregated weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes observed in studies implementing DPP interventions in nonresearch settings in the United States. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we pooled data from studies in the United States implementing DPP lifestyle modification programs (focused on modest [5%-7%] weight loss through ≥150 min of moderate physical activity per week and restriction of fat intake) in clinical, community, and online settings. We reported aggregated pre- and post-intervention weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes (fasting blood glucose [FBG], glycosylated hemoglobin [HbA1c], systolic or diastolic blood pressure [SBP/DBP], total [TC] or HDL-cholesterol). We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases from January 1, 2003, to May 1, 2016. Two reviewers independently evaluated article eligibility and extracted data on study designs, populations enrolled, intervention program characteristics (duration, number of core and maintenance sessions), and outcomes. We used a random effects model to calculate summary estimates for each outcome and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). To examine sources of heterogeneity, results were stratified according to the presence of maintenance sessions, risk level of participants (prediabetes or other), and intervention delivery personnel (lay or professional). Forty-four studies that enrolled 8,995 participants met eligibility criteria. Participants had an average age of 50.8 years and body mass index (BMI) of 34.8 kg/m2, and 25.2% were male. On average, study follow-up was 9.3 mo (median 12.0) with a range of 1.5 to 36 months; programs offered a mean of 12.6 sessions, with mean participant attendance of 11.0 core sessions. Sixty percent of programs offered some form of post-core maintenance (either email or in person). Mean absolute changes observed were: weight -3.77 kg (95% CI: -4.55; -2.99), HbA1c -0.21% (-0.29; -0.13), FBG -2.40 mg/dL (-3.59; -1.21), SBP -4.29 mmHg (-5.73, -2.84), DBP -2.56 mmHg (-3.40, 1.71), HDL +0.85 mg/dL (-0.10, 1.60), and TC -5.34 mg/dL (-9.72, -0.97). Programs with a maintenance component achieved greater reductions in weight (additional -1.66kg) and FBG (additional -3.14 mg/dl). Findings are subject to incomplete reporting and heterogeneity of studies included, and confounding because most included studies used pre-post study designs. DPP lifestyle modification programs achieved clinically meaningful weight and cardiometabolic health improvements. Together, these data suggest that additional value is gained from these programs, reinforcing that they are likely very cost-effective.

Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of \"no diabetes\" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

Structured lifestyle interventions can reduce diabetes incidence and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among persons with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), but it is unclear whether they should be implemented among persons without IGT. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions on CVD risk among adults without IGT or diabetes. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and PsychInfo databases, from inception to May 4, 2016. We selected randomized controlled trials of lifestyle interventions, involving physical activity (PA), dietary (D), or combined strategies (PA+D) with follow-up duration ≥12 months. We excluded all studies that included individuals with IGT, confirmed by 2-hours oral glucose tolerance test (75g), but included all other studies recruiting populations with different glycemic levels. We stratified studies by baseline glycemic levels: (1) low-range group with mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) <5.5mmol/L or glycated hemoglobin (A1C) <5.5%, and (2) high-range group with FPG ≥5.5mmol/L or A1C ≥5.5%, and synthesized data using random-effects models. Primary outcomes in this review included systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG). Totally 79 studies met inclusion criteria. Compared to usual care (UC), lifestyle interventions achieved significant improvements in SBP (-2.16mmHg[95%CI, -2.93, -1.39]), DBP (-1.83mmHg[-2.34, -1.31]), TC (-0.10mmol/L[-0.15, -0.05]), LDL-C (-0.09mmol/L[-0.13, -0.04]), HDL-C (0.03mmol/L[0.01, 0.04]), and TG (-0.08mmol/L[-0.14, -0.03]). Similar effects were observed among both low-and high-range study groups except for TC and TG. Similar effects also appeared in SBP and DBP categories regardless of follow-up duration. PA+D interventions had larger improvement effects on CVD risk factors than PA alone interventions. In adults without IGT or diabetes, lifestyle interventions resulted in significant improvements in SBP, DBP, TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG, and might further reduce CVD risk.

Intensive lifestyle interventions can reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes in people with impaired glucose tolerance, but how long these benefits extend beyond the period of active intervention, and whether such interventions reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, is unclear. We aimed to assess whether intensive lifestyle interventions have a long-term effect on the risk of diabetes, diabetes-related macrovascular and microvascular complications, and mortality. In 1986, 577 adults with impaired glucose tolerance from 33 clinics in China were randomly assigned to either the control group or to one of three lifestyle intervention groups (diet, exercise, or diet plus exercise). Active intervention took place over 6 years until 1992. In 2006, study participants were followed-up to assess the long-term effect of the interventions. The primary outcomes were diabetes incidence, CVD incidence and mortality, and all-cause mortality. Compared with control participants, those in the combined lifestyle intervention groups had a 51% lower incidence of diabetes (hazard rate ratio [HRR] 0·49; 95% CI 0·33–0·73) during the active intervention period and a 43% lower incidence (0·57; 0·41–0·81) over the 20 year period, controlled for age and clustering by clinic. The average annual incidence of diabetes was 7% for intervention participants versus 11% in control participants, with 20-year cumulative incidence of 80% in the intervention groups and 93% in the control group. Participants in the intervention group spent an average of 3·6 fewer years with diabetes than those in the control group. There was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups in the rate of first CVD events (HRR 0·98; 95% CI 0·71–1·37), CVD mortality (0·83; 0·48–1·40), and all-cause mortality (0·96; 0·65–1·41), but our study had limited statistical power to detect differences for these outcomes. Group-based lifestyle interventions over 6 years can prevent or delay diabetes for up to 14 years after the active intervention. However, whether lifestyle intervention also leads to reduced CVD and mortality remains unclear. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO, the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, and Da Qing First Hospital.