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Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

The effects of global and local environmental changes are transmitted through networks of interacting organisms to shape the structure of communities and the dynamics of ecosystems. We tested the impact of elevated temperature on the top-down and bottom-up forces structuring experimental freshwater pond food webs in western Canada over 16 months. Experimental warming was crossed with treatments manipulating the presence of planktivorous fish and eutrophication through enhanced nutrient supply. We found that higher temperatures produced top-heavy food webs with lower biomass of benthic and pelagic producers, equivalent biomass of zooplankton, zoobenthos and pelagic bacteria, and more pelagic viruses. Eutrophication increased the biomass of all organisms studied, while fish had cascading positive effects on periphyton, phytoplankton and bacteria, and reduced biomass of invertebrates. Surprisingly, virus biomass was reduced in the presence of fish, suggesting the possibility for complex mechanisms of top-down control of the lytic cycle. Warming reduced the effects of eutrophication on periphyton, and magnified the already strong effects of fish on phytoplankton and bacteria. Warming, fish and nutrients all increased whole-system rates of net production despite their distinct impacts on the distribution of biomass between producers and consumers, plankton and benthos, and microbes and macrobes. Our results indicate that warming exerts a host of indirect effects on aquatic food webs mediated through shifts in the magnitudes of top-down and bottom-up forcing.

Climate warming is occurring in concert with other anthropogenic changes to ecosystems. However, it is unknown whether and how warming alters the importance of top-down vs. bottom-up control over community productivity and variability. We performed a 16-month factorial experimental manipulation of warming, nutrient enrichment, and predator presence in replicated freshwater pond mesocosms to test their independent and interactive impacts. Warming strengthened trophic cascades from fish to primary producers, and it decreased the impact of eutrophication on the mean and temporal variation of phytoplankton biomass. These impacts varied seasonally, with higher temperatures leading to stronger trophic cascades in winter and weaker algae blooms under eutrophication in summer. Our results suggest that higher temperatures may shift the control of primary production in freshwater ponds toward stronger top-down and weaker bottom-up effects. The dampened temporal variability of algal biomass under eutrophication at higher temperatures suggests that warming may stabilize some ecosystem processes.

Biodiversity in running waters is threatened by an increased severity and incidence of low-flow extremes resulting from global climate change and a growing human demand for freshwater resources. Although it is unknown how and to what extent riverine communities will change in the face of these threats, considerable insight will be gained from efforts aimed at quantifying habitat size-related controls on the trophic relationships among taxa in streams experiencing extreme flow loss. Here we report on a detailed space-for-time survey of replicate stream food webs sampled along the perennialto-drying continuum in each of fourteen different intermittent South Island, New Zealand streams. We quantified several structural attributes of food webs at fifty-eight sites, including two taxonomically-based metrics (web size, predator:prey ratio) and three stable isotope-based metrics (food chain length [FCL], trophic area, δ13C range); we also quantified habitat size-, disturbance-, and resource-related covariates at each site. Food web structure varied widely across sample sites within and across study streams and much of this variation was explained by habitat size. Consistent with our predictions, we found that food webs became smaller (ca 30 to ca 15 taxa, ca 20-fold reduction in stable isotope-based trophic area) and shorter (maximum trophic position [FCL] from 4.1 to 2.0, 25% reduction in predator:prey ratio) as we moved from the largest to smaller habitats. These results, and a comparison of our findings with those from a similar assessment conducted in perennial streams, suggest that there are perturbation thresholds which may trigger food web collapse when exceeded, and further imply that food webs may ultimately be ‘sized’ to minimum flows rather than average flow conditions. Our work provides a basis for making general predictions about how habitat contraction, and flow loss in particular, may affect communities and additionally provides insight on mechanisms warranting further attention.

Climate-driven species range shifts and expansions are changing community composition, yet the functional consequences in natural systems are mostly unknown. By combining a 30-year survey of subalpine pond larval caddisfly assemblages with species-specific functional traits (nitrogen and phosphorus excretion, and detritus processing rates), we tested how three upslope range expansions affected species’ relative contributions to caddisfly-driven nutrient supply and detritus processing. A subdominant resident species ( Ag. deflata ) consistently made large relative contributions to caddisfly-driven nitrogen supply throughout all range expansions, thus “regulating” the caddisfly-driven nitrogen supply. Whereas, phosphorus supply and detritus processing were regulated by the dominant resident species ( L. externus ) until the third range expansion (by N. hostilis ). Since the third range expansion, N. hostilis ’s relative contribution to caddisfly-driven phosphorus supply increased, displacing L. externus ’s role in regulating caddisfly-driven phosphorus supply. Meanwhile, detritus processing contributions became similar among the dominant resident, subdominant residents, and range expanding species. Total ecosystem process rates did not change throughout any of the range expansions. Thus, shifts in species’ relative functional roles may occur before shifts in total ecosystem process rates, and changes in species’ functional roles may stabilize processes in ecosystems undergoing change. A long-term dataset of caddisfly abundances in a mountain pond system reveals the biotic impact of species range expansions.

Consensus has emerged in the literature that increased biodiversity enhances the capacity of ecosystems to perform multiple functions. However, most biodiversity/ecosystem function studies focus on a single ecosystem, or on landscapes of homogenous ecosystems. Here, we investigate how increased landscape-level environmental dissimilarity may affect the relationship between different metrics of diversity (α, β, or γ) and ecosystem function. We produced a suite of simulated landscapes, each of which contained four experimental outdoor aquatic mesocosms. Differences in temperature and nutrient conditions of the mesocosms allowed us to simulate landscapes containing a range of within-landscape environmental heterogeneities. We found that the variation in ecosystem functions was primarily controlled by environmental conditions, with diversity metrics accounting for a smaller (but significant) amount of variation in function. When landscapes were more homogeneous, α, β, and γ diversity was not associated with differences in primary production, and only γ was associated with changes in decomposition. In these homogeneous landscapes, differences in these two ecosystem functions were most strongly related to nutrient and temperature conditions in the ecosystems. However, as landscape-level environmental dissimilarity increased, the relationship between α, β, or γ and ecosystem functions strengthened, with β being a greater predictor of variation in decomposition at the highest levels of environmental dissimilarity than α or γ. We propose that when all ecosystems in a landscape have similar environmental conditions, species sorting is likely to generate a single community composition that is well suited to those environmental conditions, β is low, and the efficiency of diversity-ecosystem function couplings is similar across communities. Under this low β, the effect of abiotic conditions on ecosystem function will be most apparent. However, when environmental conditions vary among ecosystems, species sorting pressures are different among ecosystems, producing different communities among locations in a landscape. These conditions lead to stronger relationships between β and the magnitude of ecosystem functions. Our results illustrate that abiotic conditions and the homogeneity of communities influence ecosystem function expressed at the landscape scale.

Indirect effects of predators on basal resources in allochthonous-based food webs are poorly understood. We investigated indirect effects of predatory brown trout (Salmo trutta) on detritus dynamics in southern beech (Nothofagus spp.) forest streams in New Zealand through predation on the obligate detritivore, Zelandopsyche ingens (Trichoptera, Oeconesidae). Trout presence/absence and Z. ingens density were manipulated in flow-through tanks to investigate the lethal and sub-lethal effects of trout on litter processing by Z. ingens. An experiment that allowed trout access to Z. ingens showed trout predation reduced densities of Z. ingens resulting in slower breakdown of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) and reduced production of fine particulate organic matter (FPOM). A second experiment that prevented trout access to Z. ingens, but allowed the transmission of trout cues, resulted in no change in litter processing rates in the presence of trout. Litter processing rates were higher in high Z. ingens density treatments compared to low density treatments. Thus, trout effects on litter processing were due to reduced Z. ingens densities, not trout-induced modifications to Z. ingens feeding behaviour. Field assays of litter processing rates using artificial leaf packs in natural streams showed significant reductions in CPOM loss in trout streams compared to fishless streams. Z. ingens dominated biomass in fishless stream leaf packs, but a facultative shredder, Olinga feredayi, dominated trout stream leaf packs. Thus, the absence of Z. ingens drove differences in processing rates between trout and fishless streams and the indirect effects of trout on litter processing observed in mesocosms were evident in complex, natural food webs. Overall our study provides evidence that predators can influence resource dynamics in donor-controlled food webs through their effects on consumers.

Mechanisms linked to demographic, biogeographic, and food-web processes thought to underpin community stability could be affected by habitat size, but the effects of habitat size on community stability remain relatively unknown. We investigated whether those habitat-size-dependent properties influenced community instability and vulnerability to perturbations caused by disturbance. This is particularly important given that human exploitation is contracting ecosystems, and abiotic perturbations are becoming more severe and frequent. We used a perturbation experiment in which 10 streams, spanning three orders of magnitude in habitat size, were subjected to simulated bed movement akin to a major flood disturbance event. We measured the resistance, resilience, and variability of basal resources, and population and community-level responses across the stream habitat-size gradient immediately before, and at 0.5, 5, 10, 20, and 40 d post-disturbance. Resistance to disturbance consistently increased with stream size in all response variables. In contrast, resilience was significantly higher in smaller streams for some response variables. However, this higher resilience of small ecosystems was insufficient to compensate for their lower resistance, and communities of smaller streams were thus more variable over time than those of larger streams. Compensatory dynamics of populations, especially for predators, stabilized some aspects of communities, but these mechanisms were unrelated to habitat size. Together, our results provide compelling evidence for the links between habitat size and community stability, and should motivate ecologists and managers to consider how changes in the size of habitats will alter the vulnerability of ecosystems to perturbations caused by environmental disturbance.

Polymorphisms are maintained over time by trade-offs that alternatively favor morphs over space or time. In a polyphenic population of amphibians (Arizona tiger salamander; Ambystoma mavortium nebulosum ), two morphs—paedomorphs and metamorphs—exhibit a trade-off in dispersal capacity. Larvae select between two discrete ontogenetic pathways based on environmental cues—adult paedomorphs remain in their permanent, natal pond, while adult metamorphs disperse between ponds of varying hydroperiods and overwinter in the terrestrial environment. This polyphenism is maintained in part by sex-specific reproductive advantages within each morph, with paedomorphic males achieving more reproductive opportunities and metamorphic females achieving higher egg production. In this study, we examined the role of a high-quality, primary prey taxon (fairy shrimp)—which is accessible to metamorphs only—in balancing the sex-specific component of this dispersal trade-off. Among the 95 metamorphs for which we evaluated diet and body condition, we found that most of the high-condition individuals were females that contained predominantly fairy shrimp in their stomachs. In addition, females specialized on fairy shrimp at much lower fairy shrimp densities than males, indicating that the consumption of this prey taxon may have differential fitness benefits across metamorph sexes. Our findings align with the expectations of parental investment theory, in which female reproductive success is most limited by the energetic resources necessary for egg production, while male reproductive success is limited predominantly by access to females. Significance statement Polymorphisms are a common source of phenotypic diversity in animal populations that are often maintained over time by trade-offs among morphs. In a subalpine amphibian population that exhibits a dispersal polyphenism, the dispersing morph (metamorph) can leave natal ponds and access a high-quality, ephemeral food resource (fairy shrimp) in ponds of nonpermanent hydroperiods. In this study, we quantify the spatiotemporal availability of this focal prey taxon and examine whether sex-specific foraging behavior among metamorphs could contribute to the persistence of this polyphenism. Our results suggest that fairy shrimp consumption allows metamorphs to realize benefits of the dispersal trade-off through high female fecundity. These findings emphasize the importance of considering intrapopulation variation in functional responses and how the behavior can contribute to the maintenance of polymorphisms.

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.