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"Greiving, Stefan"
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European climate vulnerabilities and adaptation : a spatial planning perspective
\"Provides a comprehensive analysis of the impacts climate change might have on European regions and their local economies\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Systemic criticality—a new assessment concept improving the evidence basis for CI protection
With high certainty, extreme weather events will intensify in their impact within the next 10 years due to climate change-induced increases in hazard probability of occurrence and simultaneous increases in socio-economic vulnerability. Data from previous mega-disasters show that losses from disruptions of critical services surpass the value of direct damages in the exposed areas because critical infrastructures [CI] are increasingly (inter-) dependent. Local events may have global impacts. Systemic criticality, which describes the relevance of a critical infrastructure due to its positioning within the system, needs to be addressed to reduce the likelihood of cascading effects. This paper presents novel approaches to operationalise and assess systemic criticality. Firstly, the paper introduces systemic cascade potential as a measurement of systemic criticality. It takes the relevance of a sector and the relevance of its interdependencies into account to generate a relative value of systemic importance for a CI sector. Secondly, an exemplary sectoral assessment of the road network allows reflecting the spatial manifestation of the first level of cascading effects. It analyses the impact of traffic interruptions on the accessibility of critical facilities to point out the systemically most critical segments of the municipal road network. To further operationalise the spatial dimension of criticality, a normative assertion determining the worthiness of protection of system components is required. A nationwide spatial flood protection plan incorporates this aspect in Germany for the first time. Its formal approval process was initiated in February 2020.
Journal Article
Framework for collaborative local climate adaptation scenario development- nexus between climate resilience, public health service and spatial planning
PurposeThe interaction between urban development and climate change significantly impacts local public health services. Unfortunately, cities and involved institutions often fail to prioritize and integrate spatial planning when dealing with these unprecedented future challenges. This study aims to offer Health Integrative Climate Resilience and Adaptation Future (HICRAF), an innovative planning framework that systematically operationalizes future climate risks and their impact on local public health services.Design/methodology/approachHICRAF is developed based on the intermix of explorative and normative scenario planning approaches. Mixed methods of quantitative and qualitative techniques were applied to develop and operationalize the local climate adaptation scenarios through stakeholder participation. The framework demonstrates how different methods and scales (spatial and temporal) can be linked to exhibit climate risk outcomes of different future pathways.FindingsThe practicality of HICRAF was demonstrated in Khon Kaen city, where it bridged the gaps between global climate trajectories and local climate adaptation scenarios. It also highlights the need to consider intertwining spatial and systemic risks in local infrastructure operations. Although HICRAF has gained political buy-in and fostered the establishment of stakeholder discourse on climate-resilient futures, further research is needed to enhance its robustness and replicability.Originality/valueThis paper proposes a novel planning framework, HICRAF, that can systematically operationalize the future challenges of unprecedented climate change and urban development changes for the local public health service. The demonstration of HICRAF in Khon Kaen city provides empirical evidence of its implementability and upscaling potential.
Journal Article
Flood Risk Mitigation by Spatial Planning—Lessons Learned From Municipal Consultation
ABSTRACT
The paper investigates which information on flood risk is needed for local land‐use planning and how a risk‐based planning approach can be implemented. The article is based on the results of a municipal consultation meeting at which German municipalities presented their planning cases in flood‐prone areas. These cases included the conversion of existing settlements and buildings and new developments on previously undeveloped land. The team of researchers conducted pluvial and fluvial flood risk assessments based on water depth and flow velocities and analyzed the planning documents. On this basis, we advised the municipalities regarding risk‐based planning. The flood event that hit the German states of Rhineland‐Palatinate and North Rhine‐Westphalia in mid‐July 2021 increased municipal awareness for flood‐sensitive planning. The consultation has confirmed that the biggest challenge is managing flood risk in existing built‐up areas. The extreme event changed the flood statistics and thus the assessment basis, but municipalities seek legal certainty for decision‐making. Currently, the lack of a clear planning basis creates uncertainty but also poses opportunities for change. In this context, we recommend, with reference to good examples from other European countries, an orientation towards the precautionary principle and the consideration of extreme flood scenarios.
Journal Article
The Rhenish Coal-Mining Area—Assessing the Transformational Talents and Challenges of a Region in Fundamental Structural Change
This paper addresses the extensive structural changes of the Rhenish coal-mining area in Germany. Coal mining was and still is a relevant economic activity throughout Europe and is the focus of many political and societal debates, as well as research activities in the Rhenish coal-mining area. The project DAZWISCHEN followed the concept of evidence-based planning and therefore identified, by means of a GIS-based analysis, the structural changes within the Rhenish coal-mining area for the conflicting thematic clusters for settlement development and open space. Moreover, we investigated the complex multi-level governance that the region is characterized by. The results suggest an increased pressure on blue and green infrastructure by new urban development, especially in the northern part of the Rhenish coal-mining area. On the other hand, the southern part of the Rhenish coal-mining area will be more likely to undergo a process towards an increase in green infrastructure. Thus, the future development of the whole area is segregated in two different development trends in the north and south parts. The complex governance structure in the Rhenish coal-mining area requires an in-depth view of the ongoing working processes in the development of ideas and visions for regional mission statements of different planning areas, levels, and network partners in a real-life laboratory.
Journal Article
Climate Impact Assessment for Sustainable Structural Change in the Rhenish Lignite Mining Region
The Rhenish lignite mining region is facing enormous structural changes due to the withdrawal from opencast mining. The current planning of the regional transformation process, however, has so far only insufficiently considered the local impacts of climate change and thus also existing needs for action as well as opportunities in the context of sustainable regional development. However, the integrated consideration of these challenges is probably one of the biggest strategic challenges for this region. The aim of our study was therefore to apply a method for the integrated analysis of structural and climatic changes in the context of a climate impact assessment. We follow a parallel spatial modelling approach and use scenario corridors to describe the bandwidth of potential future conditions. The results clearly show the influence of other drivers such as changes in population and land use, and thus the adaptation options within the context of a sustainable transformation process. Structural changes should be considered in the context of climate impact analyses, as well as climate changes in the management of structural change.
Journal Article
Service of General Interest in the Rhenish Coal-Mining Area in Context of Structural Change
Territorial cohesion is of main interest in the EU and its member state Germany. It should lead to a reduction of disparities between different stats of development and is closely related to the accessibility to Service of General (SGI) in different areas. The investigated area in this article is characterized by the end of coal fired power generation by the Coal-Phase-out act. In this article the accessibility to SGI is discussed. Additionally, the accessibility to specific SGI is investigated with a special view to the southern rural parts of the Rhenish coal-mining area. It is outlined that the provision to SGIs is high near to agglomerations and decreases in rural parts. This can also be observed for broadband expansion, while the access to internet allows a higher accessibility to SGIs for different analysed indicators. This research is used to establish a regional development strategy to maintain equal living conditions for the entire region.
Journal Article
Advanced Operationalization Framework for Climate-Resilient Urban Public Health Care Services: Composite Indicators-Based Scenario Assessment of Khon Kaen City, Thailand
Conventional local public health planning and monitoring are insufficiently addressing the conjugated impact of urban development change and climate change in the future. The existing checklist and index often ignore the spatial-network interaction determining urban public health services in forward-looking aspects. This study offers and demonstrates a climate-resilient operationalization framework for urban public health services considering the interaction between urban development change and climate change across scales. A combination of collaborative scenario planning and tailor-made composite indicators were applied based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)’s climate risk concept to adhere to local realities and diverse sets of scenarios. The framework was contested in a medium-sized city with a universal health care coverage setting, Khon Kaen city, Thailand. The results show that the coupling of collaborative scenario planning and composite indicators allows local public health care to operationalize their potential impact and climate-resilient targets in the future(s) in multiple service operation aspects. The scenarios assessment outcomes prove that although public health devotion can be fail-safe, achieving climate-resilient targets requires sectoral integration with urban development and health determining domains. Further exploration and disputation of the framework with a wider scale and diversified settings are recommended to enhance their robustness and universality.
Journal Article
Disconnected policies and actors and the missing role of spatial planning throughout the risk management cycle
The present work addresses the problem of lack of coordination between policies and actors with joint competence for risk management, i.e., civil protection, spatial planning, and sectoral planning (e.g., forest policy in the case of forest fire risk). Spatial planning in particular is assigned a minor or no role at all though it might perfectly operate as the coordinating policy platform; the reason is that spatially relevant analysis and policy guidance is an omnipresent component of the risk management cycle. However, disconnected risk relevant policies turning a blind eye to spatial planning might cause several adverse repercussions: Breaks in the response-preparedness-prevention-remediation chain (which should function as a continuum), minimal attention to prevention, risk expansion and growth instead of mitigation, lack of synergies between involved actors as well as duplicated or even diverging measures and funding. The authors bear witness to the above suggestions by examining three cases of European (regional and local) risk management systems faced with failures when confronting natural hazards (floods and forest fires). These three systems are embedded in different types of political-administrative structures, namely those of the city of Dortmund (Germany) facing floods, Eastern Attica region (Greece), and Lazio Region (Italy) facing forest fires.
Journal Article