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"Grier, Robin M"
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The long process of development : building markets and states in pre-industrial England, Spain, and their colonies
\"Douglass North once emphasized that development takes centuries, but he did not have a theory of how and why change occurs. This groundbreaking book advances such a theory by examining in detail why England and Spain developed so slowly from 1000 to 1800. A colonial legacy must go back centuries before settlement, and this book points to key events in England and Spain in the 1260s to explain why Mexico lagged behind the United States economically in the twentieth century. Based on the integration of North's institutional approach with Mancur Olson's collective action theory, Max Weber's theory of value change, and North's focus on dominant coalitions based on rent and military in In the Shadow of Violence, this theory of change leads to exciting new historical interpretations, including the crucial role of the merchant-navy alliance in England and the key role of George Washington's control of the military in 1787\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Colonial Legacies and Economic Growth
Much of the work on colonialism has been theoretical or anecdotal. In this paper, I close the gap between the literature on development and new growth theory by testing the effect of colonization on subsequent growth and development. In a sample of 63 ex-colonial states from 1961-1990, I find that colonies that were held for longer periods of time than other countries tend to perform better, on average, after independence. Finally, I show that the level of education at the time of independence can help to explain much of the development gap between the former British and French colonies in Africa.
Journal Article
On the Interaction of Human and Physical Capital in Latin America
This article investigates the causal relationship between the accumulation of human and physical capital. There is a theoretical literature on this topic in which the main emphasis is on how the level of human capital affects the incentives to accumulate physical capital. However, some recent work studies the reverse causal argument that the level of physical capital influences human capital decisions. There is currently little empirical work on this important topic, and in the existing work, no one models and tests for the joint endogeneity of human and physical capital. Using a panel of 18 Latin American countries covering the period 1965-90, human and physical capital in a simultaneous system is modeled using lagged measures of political instability, regime type, government spending, income inequality, ethnolinguistic diversity, trade openness, and climate as exogenous explanatory variables.
Journal Article
Exchange rate regimes and the cross-country distribution of the 1997 financial crisis
We study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries. We use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures. Our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators.
Journal Article
Political Cycles in Nontraditional Settings: Theory and Evidence from the Case of Mexico
We create a rotating bandit model of executive turnover in politics with autocratic presidents, large and centralized governments, and limited reelection. The model is an extension of McGuire and Olson's 1996 work. We apply our model by studying the relationship between electoral cycles and economic growth and inflation uncertainty in Mexico, a country with a highly centralized and powerful government, no reelection, and until recently, little political competition. We find a significant postelection economic collapse but no preelection boom, which is contrary to the predictions of the traditional political business cycle model. We also find evidence that elections create, rather than resolve, inflation uncertainty, which contradicts the predictions of the rational partisan model. While our rotating bandit model is largely consistent with the results we find, more work is needed on the real effects of politics in the developing world.
Journal Article
Exchange rate regimes and the cross-country distribution of the 1997 financial crisis
We study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries. We use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures. Our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators.
Journal Article
