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This opinion piece postulates that quantitative environmental research and public health spatial analysts unknowingly tolerate certain spatial statistical model specification errors, whose remedies constitute some of the urgent emerging trends and issues in this subfield (e.g., forecasting disease spreading). Within this context, this paper addresses misspecifications affiliated with omitted variable bias complications arising from ignoring, and hence abandoning, negative spatial autocorrelation latent in georeferenced disease data, and/or being ill-informed about reigning teledependencies (i.e., long-distance spatial correlations). As imperative academic challenges, it advances elegant and convincing arguments to do otherwise. Its two particular themes are positive–negative spatial autocorrelation mixtures, and hierarchical autocorrelation generated by hegemonic urban systems. Comprehensive interpretations and implementations of these two conjectures constitute future research directions. Important conceptualizations for treatments reported in this paper include confounding variables and Moran eigenvector spatial filtering. This paper’s fundamental implication is an advocacy for a prodigious paradigm shift, a marked change in the collective mindsets and applications of spatial epidemiologists when specifying spatial regression equations to describe either environmental health data, or a publicly transparent geographic diffusion of diseases.

Grasses accumulate high concentrations of silicon (Si) in their tissues, with potential benefits including herbivore defense, improved water balance, and reduced leaf construction costs. Although Si is one of the most widely varying leaf constituents among individuals, species, and ecosystems, the environmental forces driving this variation remain elusive and understudied. To understand relationships between environmental factors and grass Si accumulation better, we analyzed foliar chemistry of grasses from 17 globally distributed sites where nutrient inputs and grazing were manipulated. These sites span natural gradients in temperature, precipitation, and underlying soil properties, which allowed us to assess the relative importance of soil moisture and nutrients across variation in climate. Foliar Si concentration did not respond to large mammalian grazer exclusion, but significant variation in herbivore abundance among sites may have precluded the observation of defoliation effects at these sites. However, nutrient addition consistently reduced leaf Si, especially at sites with low soil nitrogen prior to nutrient addition. Additionally, a leaf-level trade-off between Si and carbon (C) existed that was stronger at arid sites than mesic sites. Our results suggest soil nutrient limitation favors investment in Si over C-based leaf construction, and that fixing C is especially costly relative to assimilating Si when water is limiting. Our results demonstrate the importance of soil nutrients and precipitation as key drivers of global grass silicification patterns.

Virtually all remotely sensed data contain spatial autocorrelation, which impacts upon their statistical features of uncertainty through variance inflation, and the compounding of duplicate information. Estimating the nature and degree of this spatial autocorrelation, which is usually positive and very strong, has been hindered by computational intensity associated with the massive number of pixels in realistically-sized remotely-sensed images, a situation that more recently has changed. Recent advances in spatial statistical estimation theory support the extraction of information and the distilling of knowledge from remotely-sensed images in a way that accounts for latent spatial autocorrelation. This paper summarizes an effective methodological approach to achieve this end, illustrating results with a 2002 remotely sensed-image of the Florida Everglades, and simulation experiments. Specifically, uncertainty of spatial autocorrelation parameter in a spatial autoregressive model is modeled with a beta-beta mixture approach and is further investigated with three different sampling strategies: coterminous sampling, random sub-region sampling, and increasing domain sub-regions. The results suggest that uncertainty associated with remotely-sensed data should be cast in consideration of spatial autocorrelation. It emphasizes that one remaining challenge is to better quantify the spatial variability of spatial autocorrelation estimates across geographic landscapes.

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle. Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C 3 and C 4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C 4 species distribution and the contribution of C 4 plants to global photosynthesis.

One of the conference themes for the 2017 American Association of Geographers (AAG) annual meeting was \"Uncertainty and Context in Geography and GIScience.\" It included a triplet of special sessions cosponsored by the Spatial Analysis and Modeling (SAM) and the Health & Medical Geography (HMG) specialty groups. One session dealt with spatial autocorrelation, another featured spatial sampling, and a third focused on public health data. A conceptual framework and overviews of these three sessions emphasize research frontiers and advances in theory, method, and research practice that address challenges of uncertainty and context in geography and GIScience. This article summarizes these three sessions.

The SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein is an abundant RNA-binding protein critical for viral genome packaging, yet the molecular details that underlie this process are poorly understood. Here we combine single-molecule spectroscopy with all-atom simulations to uncover the molecular details that contribute to N protein function. N protein contains three dynamic disordered regions that house putative transiently-helical binding motifs. The two folded domains interact minimally such that full-length N protein is a flexible and multivalent RNA-binding protein. N protein also undergoes liquid-liquid phase separation when mixed with RNA, and polymer theory predicts that the same multivalent interactions that drive phase separation also engender RNA compaction. We offer a simple symmetry-breaking model that provides a plausible route through which single-genome condensation preferentially occurs over phase separation, suggesting that phase separation offers a convenient macroscopic readout of a key nanoscopic interaction. SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein is responsible for viral genome packaging. Here the authors employ single-molecule spectroscopy with all-atom simulations to provide the molecular details of N protein and show that it undergoes phase separation with RNA.

Although spatially varying coefficient (SVC) models have attracted considerable attention in applied science, they have been criticized as being unstable. The objective of this study is to show that capturing the \"spatial scale\" of each data relationship is crucially important to make SVC modeling more stable and, in doing so, adds flexibility. Here, the analytical properties of six SVC models are summarized in terms of their characterization of scale. Models are examined through a series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments to assess the extent to which spatial scale influences model stability and the accuracy of their SVC estimates. The following models are studied: (1) geographically weighted regression (GWR) with a fixed distance or (2) an adaptive distance bandwidth (GWRa); (3) flexible bandwidth GWR (FB-GWR) with fixed distance or (4) adaptive distance bandwidths (FB-GWRa); (5) eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF); and (6) random effects ESF (RE-ESF). Results reveal that the SVC models designed to capture scale dependencies in local relationships (FB-GWR, FB-GWRa, and RE-ESF) most accurately estimate the simulated SVCs, where RE-ESF is the most computationally efficient. Conversely, GWR and ESF, where SVC estimates are naïvely assumed to operate at the same spatial scale for each relationship, perform poorly. Results also confirm that the adaptive bandwidth GWR models (GWRa and FB-GWRa) are superior to their fixed bandwidth counterparts (GWR and FB-GWR). Key Words: flexible bandwidth geographically weighted regression, Monte Carlo simulation, nonstationarity, random effects eigenvector spatial filtering, spatial scale.

For decades, conventional wisdom maintained that binary 0–1 Bernoulli random variables cannot contain extra-binomial variation. Taking an unorthodox stance, Hilbe actively disagreed, especially for correlated observation instances, arguing that the universally adopted diagnostic Pearson or deviance dispersion statistics are insensitive to a variance anomaly in a binary context, and hence simply fail to detect it. However, having the intuition and insight to sense the existence of this departure from standard mathematical statistical theory, but being unable to effectively isolate it, he classified this particular over-/under-dispersion phenomenon as implicit. This paper explicitly exposes his hidden quantity by demonstrating that the variance in/deflation it represents occurs in an underlying predicted beta random variable whose real number values are rounded to their nearest integers to convert to a Bernoulli random variable, with this discretization masking any materialized extra-Bernoulli variation. In doing so, asymptotics linking the beta-binomial and Bernoulli distributions show another conventional wisdom misconception, namely a mislabeling substitution involving the quasi-Bernoulli random variable; this undeniably is not a quasi-likelihood situation. A public bell pepper disease dataset exhibiting conspicuous spatial autocorrelation furnishes empirical examples illustrating various features of this advocated proposition.

Eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is becoming a popular way to address spatial dependence. Recently, a random effects specification of ESF (RE-ESF) is receiving considerable attention because of its usefulness for spatial dependence analysis considering spatial confounding. The objective of this study was to analyze theoretical properties of RE-ESF and extend it to overcome some of its disadvantages. We first compare the properties of RE-ESF and ESF with geostatistical and spatial econometric models. There, we suggest two major disadvantages of RE-ESF: it is specific to its selected spatial connectivity structure, and while the current form of RE-ESF eliminates the spatial dependence component confounding with explanatory variables to stabilize the parameter estimation, the elimination can yield biased estimates. RE-ESF is extended to cope with these two problems. A computationally efficient residual maximum likelihood estimation is developed for the extended model. Effectiveness of the extended RE-ESF is examined by a comparative Monte Carlo simulation. The main findings of this simulation are as follows: Our extension successfully reduces errors in parameter estimates; in many cases, parameter estimates of our RE-ESF are more accurate than other ESF models; the elimination of the spatial component confounding with explanatory variables results in biased parameter estimates; efficiency of an accuracy maximization-based conventional ESF is comparable to RE-ESF in many cases.

Understanding and predicting the relationship between leaf temperature (Tleaf ) and air temperature (Tair ) is essential for projecting responses to a warming climate, as studies suggest that many forests are near thermal thresholds for carbon uptake. Based on leaf measurements, the limited leaf homeothermy hypothesis argues that daytime Tleaf is maintained near photosynthetic temperature optima and below damaging temperature thresholds. Specifically, leaves should cool below Tair at higher temperatures (i.e., > ∼25–30°C) leading to slopes <1 in Tleaf/Tair relationships and substantial carbon uptake when leaves are cooler than air. This hypothesis implies that climate warming will be mitigated by a compensatory leaf cooling response. A key uncertainty is understanding whether such thermoregulatory behavior occurs in natural forest canopies. We present an unprecedented set of growing season canopy-level leaf temperature (Tcan ) data measured with thermal imaging at multiple well-instrumented forest sites in North and Central America. Our data do not support the limited homeothermy hypothesis: canopy leaves are warmer than air during most of the day and only cool below air in mid to late afternoon, leading to Tcan/Tair slopes >1 and hysteretic behavior. We find that the majority of ecosystem photosynthesis occurs when canopy leaves are warmer than air. Using energy balance and physiological modeling, we show that key leaf traits influence leaf-air coupling and ultimately the Tcan/Tair relationship. Canopy structure also plays an important role in Tcan dynamics. Future climate warming is likely to lead to even greater Tcan , with attendant impacts on forest carbon cycling and mortality risk.