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Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable. Hydropower generation in the Nile River Basin is vulnerable to climatic changes. Here, the authors assess infrastructure resilience of the Eastern African power pool (EAPP) to the effects of a changing climate and suggest that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations.

Robustness is a key criterion for evaluating alternative decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. However, no systematic, general approach exists for finding robust strategies using the broad range of models and data often available to decision makers. This study demonstrates robust decision making (RDM), an analytic method that helps design robust strategies through an iterative process that first suggests candidate robust strategies, identifies clusters of future states of the world to which they are vulnerable, and then evaluates the trade-offs in hedging against these vulnerabilities. This approach can help decision makers design robust strategies while also systematically generating clusters of key futures interpretable as narrative scenarios. Our study demonstrates the approach by identifying robust, adaptive, near-term pollution-control strategies to help ensure economic growth and environmental quality throughout the 21st century.

The State of Louisiana faces a substantial planning challenge in addressing the joint problems of rapid coastal land loss and storm surge flood risk, exacerbated by rising sea levels and land subsidence. To address these twin challenges, Louisiana has developed a series of coastwide master plans that include substantial investments in coastal restoration and hurricane flood risk reduction, with the most recent update in 2017 that includes about $50 billion in projects to be implemented over 50 years (approximately 2016-2065). This research builds on the integrated modeling analysis conducted in support of Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan. We use the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model to project coastal flood damage over time under different scenarios, either in a future without action or with the master plan implemented according to its intended schedule. Analysis results suggest positive, notable benefits from risk reduction investments over a range of assumptions about future conditions and economic considerations. We estimate a 50-year net economic benefit from master plan risk reduction investments of $39.6 to $59.8 billion (benefit-cost ratios of 3.0 to 4.1) across several future scenarios with a 3% assumed discount rate, for instance. Scenarios with higher sea level rise (SLR) and coastal subsidence rates generally yield greater net economic benefit from flood risk reduction investments. Net benefit from risk reduction investments is negative only with the highest discount rate assumption (7%) and if costs are somewhat higher than initially estimated for structural or nonstructural projects. In general, implementing the master plan could yield considerable net economic benefit from damage reduction investment for coastal Louisiana in many plausible future scenarios if implemented as planned.

A computer-based decision-support tool, called the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) Planning Tool, provided technical analysis that supported the development of Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast through CPRA and community-based deliberations. This document seeks to provide an accessible technical description of the Planning Tool and associated analyses used to develop the Master Plan.

This report presents an economic framework for estimating a water agency's avoided costs and environmental benefits of increasing water-use efficiency. The report demonstrates this framework by evaluating the benefits of Denver Water's efficiency programs and utilizes an exploratory modeling approach to accommodate significant uncertainty. The analysis highlights the importance of considering both long- and short-run costs and benefits.

This report highlights RAND’s contributions to the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority’s Master Plan. Its purpose is to help policymakers in other coastal regions understand the value of a solid technical foundation to support decisionmaking on strategies to reduce flood risk, rebuild or restore coastal environments, and increase the resilience of developed coastal regions.

Groves, D.G. and Sharon, C., 2013. Planning tool to support planning the future of coastal Louisiana. Coastal Louisiana's built and natural environment faces risks from catastrophic tropical storms. Concurrently, the region is experiencing a dramatic conversion of coastal land and associated habitats to open water and a loss of important services provided by such ecosystems. Louisiana's Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) engaged in a detailed modeling, simulation, and analysis exercise, the results of which informed Louisiana's 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. The Master Plan defines a set of coastal risk-reduction and restoration projects to be implemented in the coming decades to reduce hurricane flood risk to coastal communities and restore the Louisiana coast. Risk-reduction and restoration projects were selected to provide the greatest level of risk-reduction and land-building benefits under a given budget constraint while being consistent with other objectives and principles of the Master Plan. A RAND project team, with the guidance of CPRA and other members of the Master Plan Delivery Team, developed a computer-based decision-support tool, called the CPRA Planning Tool. The Planning Tool provided technical analysis that supported the development of the Master Plan through CPRA and community-based deliberations. This article provides a summary of the Planning Tool and its application in supporting the development of Louisiana's Master Plan.

Peyronnin, N.; Green, M.; Richards, C.P.; Owens, A.; Reed, D.; Chamberlain, J.; Groves, D.G.; Rhinehart, W.K., and Belhadjali, K., 2013. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan: overview of a science-based and publicly informed decision-making process. Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km2 since the 1930s. Unless aggressive, large-scale action is taken, Louisiana could lose an additional 4500 km2 in the next 50 years, resulting in a projected increase in annual damages from hurricane storm surge flooding of more than $23 billion. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan is a long-term plan with clear economic, social, and environmental benefits, such as decreasing potential damages from storm surge by $5.3 billion to $18 billion. Implementation of projects in the master plan should result in no net loss of land after 20 years and an annual net gain of land after 30 years. To develop the plan, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) utilized a state-of-the-art systems approach to coastal planning and a science-based decision-making process that resulted in a funding- and resource-constrained plan that makes the greatest progress toward achieving a sustainable coast. A series of integrated, coastwide predictive models were developed to provide data for a new planning tool used to identify the suite of projects that would make the greatest progress toward meeting the master plan objectives while considering uncertainties in future environmental conditions. Recognizing that the success of the plan hinges on stakeholder support, as well as science, the CPRA also implemented a comprehensive outreach plan to obtain input and feedback from key stakeholders and the public. The resulting plan recommends a specific list of restoration and protection projects and has achieved widespread support.

Robustness is a key criterion for evaluating alternative decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. However, no systematic, general approach exists for finding robust strategies using the broad range of models and data often available to decision makers. This study demonstrates robust decision making (RDM), an analytic method that helps design robust strategies through an iterative process that first suggests candidate robust strategies, identifies clusters of future states of the world to which they are vulnerable, and then evaluates the trade-offs in hedging against these vulnerabilities. This approach can help decision makers design robust strategies while also systematically generating clusters of key futures interpretable as narrative scenarios. Our study demonstrates the approach by identifying robust, adaptive, near-term pollution-control strategies to help ensure economic growth and environmental quality throughout the 21st century.

Coastal Louisiana's built and natural environment faces risks from catastrophic tropical storms. Concurrently, the region is experiencing a dramatic conversion of coastal land and associated habitats to open water and a loss of important services provided by such ecosystems. Louisiana's Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) engaged in a detailed modeling, simulation, and analysis exercise, the results of which informed Louisiana's 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. The Master Plan defines a set of coastal risk-reduction and restoration projects to be implemented in the coming decades to reduce hurricane flood risk to coastal communities and restore the Louisiana coast. Risk-reduction and restoration projects were selected to provide the greatest level of risk-reduction and land-building benefits under a given budget constraint while being consistent with other objectives and principles of the Master Plan. A RAND project team, with the guidance of CPRA and other members of the Master Plan Delivery Team, developed a computer-based decision-support tool, called the CPRA Planning Tool. The Planning Tool provided technical analysis that supported the development of the Master Plan through CPRA and community-based deliberations. This article provides a summary of the Planning Tool and its application in supporting the development of Louisiana's Master Plan. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]