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Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is an arbovirus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges that has recently emerged in Europe. Here, the basic reproduction ratio (R0) was used to quantify the transmission of EHDV and its dependence on temperature for cattle and deer. Using data from the published literature the parameters needed to calculate R0 were estimated with Bayesian methods to incorporate uncertainty in the calculations. The Sobol method of sensitivity analysis was used to determine the parameters having the greatest influence on R0 and, hence, to identify important data gaps. Depending on the strain, the maximum R0 for EHDV varied from 0.7 to 2.5 in cattle and 1.3 to 4.3 in deer. The maximum R0 occurred at temperatures between 22 and 25°C, while the lowest temperature at which R0 exceeded one was between 16 and 20°C. The sensitivity analysis identified the threshold temperature for virus replication, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector- to- host ratio as the most important parameters influencing R0. Furthermore, there are only limited data on EHDV in European deer species and on transmission in wildlife and at the livestock/wildlife interface. These data gaps should be the focus of future research.

The primary transmission route for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, is by direct contact with infected animals. Yet indirect methods of transmission, such as via the airborne route, have been shown to play an important role in the spread of the disease. Airborne transmission of FMD is referred to as a low probability- high consequence event as a specific set of factors need to coincide to facilitate airborne spread. When conditions are favourable, airborne virus may spread rapidly and cause disease beyond the imposed quarantine zones, thus complicating control measures. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within aerosols; how aerosols are generated, viral load, how far aerosols could travel and survive under different conditions. Various studies have investigated emissions from infected animals under laboratory conditions, while others have incorporated experimental data in mathematical models to predict and trace outbreaks of FMD. However, much of the existing literature focussing on FMDV in aerosols describe work which was undertaken over 40 years ago. The aim of this review is to revisit existing knowledge and investigate how modern instrumentation and modelling approaches can improve our understanding of airborne transmission of FMD.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a neglected vector-borne disease which is endemic in many countries across Africa and has seen recent geographical expansions into the Arabian Peninsula. RVF can cause severe infections in both animals and humans. RVF infections in livestock can lead to mass fatalities. In humans, the symptoms are nonspecific and can often lead to misdiagnosis. However, a small proportion progresses to haemorrhagic infection with a significantly higher mortality rate. The culmination of this can cause severe socioeconomic impacts. This review aims to identify the main socioeconomic impacts caused by RVF outbreaks as well as existing knowledge gaps. Ninety-three academic and grey papers were selected, covering 19 countries and 10 methodological approaches. A variety of socioeconomic impacts were found across all levels of society: Livestock trade disruptions consequently impacted local food security, local and national economies. Most livestock farmers in endemic countries are subsistence farmers and so rely on their livestock for sustenance and income. RVF outbreaks resulted in a variety of socioeconomic impacts, e.g., the inability to pay for school fees. Main barriers to vaccine uptake in communities were lack of access, funds, interest along with other social aspects. The occupational risks for women (and pregnant women) are largely unknown. To our knowledge, this is the first review on RVF to highlight the clear knowledge gap surrounding the potential gender differences on risks of RVF exposure, as well as differences on occupational health risk in pastoral communities. Further work is required to fill the gaps identified in this review and inform control policies.

Epidemiological parameters for livestock diseases are often inferred from transmission experiments. However, there are several limitations inherent to the design of such experiments that limits the precision of parameter estimates. In particular, infection times and latent periods cannot be directly observed and infectious periods may also be censored. We present a Bayesian framework accounting for these features directly and employ Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to provide robust inferences and quantify the uncertainty in our estimates. We describe the transmission dynamics using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed compartmental model, with gamma-distributed transition times. We then fit the model to published data from transmission experiments for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV). Where the previous analyses of these data made various assumptions on the unobserved processes in order to draw inferences, our Bayesian approach includes the unobserved infection times and latent periods and quantifies them along with all other model parameters. Drawing inferences about infection times helps identify who infected whom and can also provide insights into transmission mechanisms. Furthermore, we are able to use our models to measure the difference between the latent periods of inoculated and contact-challenged animals and to quantify the effect vaccination has on transmission.

BACKGROUND: The rate at which viruses replicate and disseminate in competent arthropod vectors is limited by the temperature of their environment, and this can be an important determinant of geographical and seasonal limits to their transmission by arthropods in temperate regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we present a novel statistical methodology for estimating the relationship between temperature and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and apply it to both published and novel data on virus replication for three internationally important orbiviruses (African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)) in their Culicoides vectors. Our analyses show that there can be differences in vector competence for different orbiviruses in the same vector species and for the same orbivirus in different vector species. Both the rate of virus replication (approximately 0.017-0.021 per degree-day) and the minimum temperature required for replication (11-13 C), however, were generally consistent for different orbiviruses and across different Culicoides vector species. The estimates obtained in the present study suggest that previous publications have underestimated the replication rate and threshold temperature because the statistical methods they used included an implicit assumption that all negative vectors were infected. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Robust estimates of the temperature dependence of arbovirus replication are essential for building accurate models of transmission and for informing policy decisions about seasonal relaxations to movement restrictions. The methodology developed in this study provides the required robustness and is superior to methods used previously. Importantly, the methods are generic and can readily be applied to other arbovirus-vector systems, as long as the assumptions described in the text are valid.

The role of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) carrier cattle in causing new outbreaks is still a matter of debate and it is important to find out these carrier animals by post-outbreak serosurveillance to declare freedom from FMDV infection. In this study we explore the differences in viral shedding between carrier and non-carrier animals, quantify the transmission rate of FMDV infection from carriers to susceptible animals and identify potential viral determinants of viral persistence. We collected nasal and saliva samples from 32 vaccinated and 7 unvaccinated FMDV carrier cattle and 48 vaccinated and 13 unvaccinated non-carrier cattle (total n=100) during the acute phase of infection (up to 28 days post-challenge) and then from limited number of animals up to a maximum 168 days post-challenge. We demonstrate that unvaccinated cattle excrete significantly higher levels of virus for longer periods compared with vaccinated cattle and this is independent of whether or not they subsequently become carriers. By introducing naïve cattle in to the FMDV carrier population we show the risk of new outbreaks is clearly very low in controlled conditions, although there could still be a potential threat of these carrier animals causing new outbreaks in the field situation. Finally, we compared the complete genome sequences of viruses from carrier cattle with the challenge virus and found no evidence for viral determinants of the carrier state.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus that causes severe disease in livestock and humans. The virus has caused recurrent outbreaks in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula since its discovery in 1931. This review sought to evaluate RVFV seroprevalence across the African continent in livestock, wildlife and humans in order to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of RVFV seroprevalence and to identify knowledge gaps and areas requiring further research. Risk factors associated with seropositivity were identified and study designs evaluated to understand the validity of their results. The Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to produce a protocol to systematically search for RVFV seroprevalence studies in PubMed and Web of Science databases. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement guided the evaluation of study design and analyses. A total of 174 RVFV seroprevalence studies in 126 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. RVFV seroprevalence was recorded in 31 African countries from 1968 to 2016 and varied by time, species and country. RVFV seroprevalence articles including either livestock and humans or livestock and wildlife seroprevalence records were limited in number (8/126). No articles considered wildlife, livestock and human seroprevalence concurrently, nor wildlife and humans alone. Many studies did not account for study design bias or the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests. Future research should focus on conducting seroprevalence studies at the wildlife, livestock and human interface to better understand the nature of cross-species transmission of RVFV. Reporting should be more transparent and biases accounted for in future seroprevalence research to understand the true burden of disease on the African continent.

Background Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are biological vectors of livestock arboviruses that cause diseases with significant economic, social and welfare impacts. Within temperate regions, livestock movement during arbovirus outbreaks can be facilitated by declaring a ‘seasonal vector-free period’ (SVFP) during winter when adult Culicoides are not active. In this study we carry out long-term monitoring of Culicoides adult emergence from larval development habitats at two farms in the UK to validate current definitions of the SVFP and to provide novel bionomic data for known vector species. Methods Standard emergence traps were used to collect emerging adult Culicoides from dung heaps at two cattle farms in the south-east of England from June to November 2016 and March 2017 to May 2018. Culicoides were morphologically identified to species or complex level and count data were analysed using a simple population dynamic model for pre-adult Culicoides that included meteorological components. Results More than 96,000 Culicoides were identified from 267 emergence trapping events across 2 years, revealing clear evidence of bivoltinism from peaks of male populations of Culicoides obsoletus emerging from dung heaps. This pattern was also reflected in the emergence of adult female Obsoletus complex populations, which dominated the collections (64.4% of total catch) and emerged throughout the adult active period. Adult male C. obsoletus were observed emerging earlier than females (protandry) and emergence of both sexes occurred throughout the year. Culicoides chiopterus and Culicoides scoticus were also identified in spring emergence collections, providing the first evidence for the overwintering of larvae in dung heaps for these species. Conclusions This study demonstrates continual and highly variable rates of emergence of Culicoides throughout the year. A lack of evidence for mass emergence in spring along with the ability to observe male generations highlights the need for complementary surveillance techniques in addition to light-trap data when investigating seasonality and phenology. Evidence was found of other vector species, C. chiopterus and C. scoticus , utilising cattle dung heaps as an overwintering habitat, further highlighting the importance of these habitats on farms. Graphical Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the mechanisms of transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 26 (BTV-26) in goats. A previous study, which investigated the pathogenicity and infection kinetics of BTV-26 in goats, unexpectedly revealed that one control goat may have been infected through a direct contact transmission route. To investigate the transmission mechanisms of BTV-26 in more detail an experimental infection study was carried out in which three goats were infected with BTV-26, three goats were kept uninfected, but were housed in direct contact with the infected goats, and an additional four goats were kept in indirect contact separated from infected goats by metal gates. This barrier allowed the goats to have occasional face-to-face contact in the same airspace, but feeding, watering, sampling and environmental cleaning was carried out separately. The three experimentally infected goats did not show clinical signs of BTV, however high levels of viral RNA were detected and virus was isolated from their blood. At 21 dpi viral RNA was detected in, and virus was isolated from the blood of the three direct contact goats, which also seroconverted. The four indirect barrier contact goats remained uninfected throughout the duration of the experiment. In order to assess replication in a laboratory model species of Culicoides biting midge, more than 300 Culicoides sonorensis were fed a BTV-26 spiked blood meal and incubated for 7 days. The dissemination of BTV-26 in individual C. sonorensis was inferred from the quantity of virus RNA and indicated that none of the insects processed at day 7 possessed transmissible infections. This study shows that BTV-26 is easily transmitted through direct contact transmission between goats, and the strain does not seem to replicate in C. sonorensis midges using standard incubation conditions.

The recent unprecedented emergence of arboviruses transmitted by Culicoides biting midges in northern Europe has necessitated the development of techniques to differentiate competent vector species. At present these techniques are entirely reliant upon interpretation of semi-quantitative RT-PCR (sqPCR) data in the form of Cq values used to infer the presence of viral RNA in samples. This study investigates the advantages and limitations of sqPCR in this role by comparing infection and dissemination rates of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in two colony lines of Culicoides. Through the use of these behaviorally malleable lines we provide tools for demarcating arbovirus infection and dissemination rates in Culicoides which to date have prevented clear implication of primary vector species in northern Europe. The study demonstrates biological transmission of SBV in an arthropod vector, supporting the conclusions from field-caught Culicoides and provides a general framework for future assessment of vector competence of Culicoides for arboviruses using sqPCR. When adopting novel diagnostic technologies, correctly implicating vectors of arboviral pathogens requires a coherent laboratory framework to fully understand the implications of results produced in the field. This study illustrates these difficulties and provides a full examination of sqPCR in this role for the Culicoides-arbovirus system.