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United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

Regional scale habitat suitability models provide finer scale resolution and more focused predictions of where organisms may occur. Previous modelling approaches have focused primarily on local and/or global scales, while regional scale models have been relatively few. In this study, regional scale predictive habitat models are presented for deep-sea corals for the U.S. West Coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Model results are intended to aid in future research or mapping efforts and to assess potential coral habitat suitability both within and outside existing bottom trawl closures (i.e. Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)) and identify suitable habitat within U.S. National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS). Deep-sea coral habitat suitability was modelled at 500 m×500 m spatial resolution using a range of physical, chemical and environmental variables known or thought to influence the distribution of deep-sea corals. Using a spatial partitioning cross-validation approach, maximum entropy models identified slope, temperature, salinity and depth as important predictors for most deep-sea coral taxa. Large areas of highly suitable deep-sea coral habitat were predicted both within and outside of existing bottom trawl closures and NMS boundaries. Predicted habitat suitability over regional scales are not currently able to identify coral areas with pin point accuracy and probably overpredict actual coral distribution due to model limitations and unincorporated variables (i.e. data on distribution of hard substrate) that are known to limit their distribution. Predicted habitat results should be used in conjunction with multibeam bathymetry, geological mapping and other tools to guide future research efforts to areas with the highest probability of harboring deep-sea corals. Field validation of predicted habitat is needed to quantify model accuracy, particularly in areas that have not been sampled.

Predictive habitat models are increasingly being used by conservationists, researchers and governmental bodies to identify vulnerable ecosystems and species' distributions in areas that have not been sampled. However, in the deep sea, several limitations have restricted the widespread utilisation of this approach. These range from issues with the accuracy of species presences, the lack of reliable absence data and the limited spatial resolution of environmental factors known or thought to control deep-sea species' distributions. To address these problems, global habitat suitability models have been generated for five species of framework-forming scleractinian corals by taking the best available data and using a novel approach to generate high resolution maps of seafloor conditions. High-resolution global bathymetry was used to resample gridded data from sources such as World Ocean Atlas to produce continuous 30-arc second (∼1 km(2)) global grids for environmental, chemical and physical data of the world's oceans. The increased area and resolution of the environmental variables resulted in a greater number of coral presence records being incorporated into habitat models and higher accuracy of model predictions. The most important factors in determining cold-water coral habitat suitability were depth, temperature, aragonite saturation state and salinity. Model outputs indicated the majority of suitable coral habitat is likely to occur on the continental shelves and slopes of the Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Oceans. The North Pacific has very little suitable scleractinian coral habitat. Numerous small scale features (i.e., seamounts), which have not been sampled or identified as having a high probability of supporting cold-water coral habitat were identified in all ocean basins. Field validation of newly identified areas is needed to determine the accuracy of model results, assess the utility of modelling efforts to identify vulnerable marine ecosystems for inclusion in future marine protected areas and reduce coral bycatch by commercial fisheries.

The answer to the title question is uncertain, as very few manipulative experiments have been conducted to test how deep-sea scleractinians (stony corals) react to changes in seawater chemistry. Ocean pH and calcium carbonate saturation are decreasing due to an influx of anthropogenic CO2to the atmosphere. Experimental evidence has shown that declining carbonate saturation inhibits the ability of marine organisms to build calcium carbonate skeletons, shells, and tests. Here we put forward a hypothesis suggesting that the global distribution of deep-sea scleractinian corals could be limited in part by the depth of the aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) in the world's oceans. Aragonite is the metastable form of calcium carbonate used by scleractinian corals to build their skeletons and the ASH is the limit between saturated and undersaturated water. The hypothesis is tested by reviewing the distribution of deep-sea, bioherm-forming scleractinian corals with respect to the depth of the ASH. Results indicate that > 95% of 410 coral locations occurred in saturated waters during pre-industrial times. Projections indicate that about 70% of these locations will be in undersaturated waters by 2099. Lab experimentation, in situ experimentation, and monitoring efforts are needed to quantify the effects of changing seawater chemistry on deep-sea coral ecosystems.

The world's coral reefs are in decline, threatening the food security of millions of people. Adopting an ecosystem-scale approach that protects deep as well as shallow reefs would deliver several social and economic benefits.

The existence, sources, distribution, circulation, and physicochemical nature of macroscale oceanic water bodies have long been a focus of oceanographic inquiry. Building on that work, this paper describes an objectively derived and globally comprehensive set of 37 distinct volumetric region units, called ecological marine units (EMUs). They are constructed on a regularly spaced ocean point-mesh grid, from sea surface to seafloor, and attributed with data from the 2013 World Ocean Atlas version 2. The point attribute data are the means of the decadal averages from a 57-year climatology of six physical and chemical environment parameters (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate). The database includes over 52 million points that depict the global ocean in x, y, and z dimensions. The point data were statistically clustered to define the 37 EMUs, which represent physically and chemically distinct water volumes based on spatial variation in the six marine environmental characteristics used. The aspatial clustering to produce the 37 EMUs did not include point location or depth as a determinant, yet strong geographic and vertical separation was observed. Twenty-two of the 37 EMUs are globally or regionally extensive, and account for 99% of the ocean volume, while the remaining 15 are smaller and shallower, and occur around coastal features. We assessed the vertical distribution of EMUs in the water column and placed them into classical depth zones representing epipelagic (0 m to 200 m), mesopelagic (200 m to 1,000 m), bathypelagic (1,000 m to 4,000 m) and abyssopelagic (>4,000 m) layers. The mapping and characterization of the EMUs represent a new spatial framework for organizing and understanding the physical, chemical, and ultimately biological properties and processes of oceanic water bodies. The EMUs are an initial objective partitioning of the ocean using longterm historical average data, and could be extended in the future by adding new classification variables and by introducing functionality to develop time-specific EMU distribution maps. The EMUs are an open-access resource, and as both a standardized geographic framework and a baseline physicochemical characterization of the oceanic environment, they are intended to be useful for disturbance assessments, ecosystem accounting exercises, conservation priority setting, and marine protected area network design, along with other research and management applications.

Aim Three‐quarters of Octocorallia species are found in deep waters. These cold‐water octocoral colonies can form a major constituent of structurally complex habitats. The global distribution and the habitat requirements of deep‐sea octocorals are poorly understood given the expense and difficulties of sampling at depth. Habitat suitability models are useful tools to extrapolate distributions and provide an understanding of ecological requirements. Here, we present global habitat suitability models and distribution maps for seven suborders of Octocorallia: Alcyoniina, Calcaxonia, Holaxonia, Scleraxonia, Sessiliflorae, Stolonifera and Subselliflorae. Location Global. Methods We use maximum entropy modelling to predict octocoral distribution using a database of 12,508 geolocated octocoral specimens and 32 environmental grids resampled to 30 arc‐second (approximately 1 km2) resolution. Additionally, a meta‐analysis determined habitat preferences and niche overlap between the different suborders of octocorals. Results Suborder Sessiliflorae had the widest potential habitat range, but all records for all suborders implied a habitat preference for continental shelves and margins, particularly the North and West Atlantic and Western Pacific Rim. Temperature, salinity, broad scale slope, productivity, oxygen and calcite saturation state were identified as important factors for determining habitat suitability. Less than 3% of octocoral records were found in waters undersaturated for calcite, but this result is affected by a shallow‐water sampling bias. Main conclusions The logistical difficulties, expense and vast areas associated with deep‐sea sampling leads to a gap in the knowledge of faunal distributions that is difficult to fill without predictive modelling. Global distribution estimates are presented, highlighting many suitable areas which have yet to be studied. We suggest that approximately 17% of oceans are suitable for at least one suborder but 3.5% may be suitable for all seven. This is the first global habitat suitability modelling study on the distribution of octocorals and forms a useful resource for researchers, managers and conservationists.

Future reduction in mountain snowpack due to anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to many snow‐adapted species worldwide. Mountain topography exerts a strong control on snowpack not only due to elevation but also through the effect of slope and aspect on the surface energy balance. We develop high‐resolution projections of snowpack in order to provide improved, physically based estimates of the spatial distribution of future snowpack to inform species conservation efforts for the wolverine (Gulo gulo) in two study areas in the Rocky Mountains: one in Montana with known den sites and one in Colorado with recent wolverine activity and potential for reintroduction. Here we assess springtime snowpack loss in actual and potential denning areas under five future climate scenarios for the mid‐21st century. Snowpack in April and May is likely to persist into the mid‐21st century in the upper half of current denning elevations in all but the warmest future climate scenario, while large declines are projected for the lower half of the denning elevations. We gain new insight into the influence of topographical aspect on future snowpack and quantify the potential for enhanced snow persistence on north and east facing slopes under future scenarios that is only revealed in simulations where terrain slopes are resolved. Plain Language Summary Climate change and its effect on snow are a threat to high mountain ecosystems and species worldwide. The future of mountain snowpack is complex, with multiple drivers, and with a strong elevation dependence. What has received much less attention is the dependence on topographical aspect—how will the snowpack on north facing versus south facing slopes respond differently under climate change. In this paper we develop snow projections motivated by a conservation issue for the wolverine: the future of the springtime snowpack at elevations of observed and potential wolverine denning for two study areas in the Rocky Mountains by the mid‐21st century. While there is significant snowpack loss in the lower half of denning elevations, the upper denning elevations retain springtime snowpack, supporting conservation actions through midcentury in these regions. Key Points Early spring snowpack declines sharply in the lower half of wolverine den elevations studied but persists through midcentury higher up Springtime snowpack is less affected by climate change on north and east facing slopes leading to potential for climate refugia High‐resolution modeling that resolves topographical aspect may provide useful information to support conservation decisions

Deep-sea coral reefs off southeast Australia are threatened by climate change and ocean acidification. An immediate priority to conserve these sensitive ecosystems would be the identification and protection of refugia areas. The deep sea hosts some of the world's largest, oldest, and most sensitive ecosystems. Climate change and ocean acidification are likely to have severe implications for many deep-sea ecosystems and communities, but what, if anything, can be done to mitigate these threats is poorly understood. To begin to bridge this gap, we convened a stakeholder workshop to assess and prioritize options for conserving legislatively protected deep-sea coral reefs off southeast Australia that, without management intervention, are likely to be severely degraded within decades as a result of climate change. Seventeen possible options were explored that span biological, engineering and regulatory domains and that differed widely in their perceived costs, benefits, time to implementation, and risks. In the short term, the highest priority identified is the need to urgently locate and protect sites globally that are, or will become, refugia areas for the coral and its associated community as climate change progresses.

We assessed whether CaCO3 concentration of seawater may be relevant to the occurrence of members of Corallimorpharia and Scleractinia, which are very similar except for the possession by scleractinians of a calcareous skeleton. In collections of both the Challenger Deep-sea Expedition 1872–1876 and the US Antarctic (Research) Program, average depth of occurrence was significantly greater for corallimorpharians than for scleractinians. We also compared depth of occurrence relative to the position of the aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) at many localities from which specimens were collected. Nearly 25 and 50% of stations at which scleractinians were collected were below the ASH for the Antarctic and Challenger stations, respectively; 50 and 100% of the Antarctic and Challenger stations at which corallimorpharians were collected were below the ASH, respectively. Statistical analyses of these data to test whether there is a difference in the depth, relative to the ASH, at which scleractinians and corallimorpharians occur indicate a difference for the Challenger but not the Antarctic stations; more data are needed. The scleractinians that tolerate living below the ASH belong to a minority of the genera recorded in the surveys, and do not include species considered important in forming bioherms; those that occur deepest are solitary. Some deep-sea scleractinians may be unaffected by shoaling of the ASH that is predicted across all ocean basins in the near future, some may be confined to water shallower than is now the case, and others may cease producing a skeleton, becoming morphologically indistinguishable from corallimorpharians.