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Excess adiposity is a risk factor for several cancers of the gastrointestinal system, specifically oesophageal adenocarcinoma and colorectal, small intestine, pancreatic, liver, gallbladder and stomach cancers. With the increasing prevalence of obesity in nearly all regions of the world, this relationship could represent a growing source of cancers of the digestive system. Experimental and molecular epidemiological studies indicate important roles for alterations in insulin signalling, adipose tissue-derived inflammation and sex hormone pathways in mediating the association between adiposity and gastrointestinal cancer. The intestinal microbiome, gut hormones and non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) also have possible roles. However, important gaps remain in our knowledge. For instance, our understanding of how adiposity throughout the life course is related to the risk of gastrointestinal cancer development and of how obesity influences gastrointestinal cancer prognosis and survival is limited. Nonetheless, the increasing use of state-of-the-art analytical methods (such as omics technologies, Mendelian randomization and MRI) in large-scale epidemiological studies offers exciting opportunities to advance our understanding of the complex relationship between adiposity and gastrointestinal cancers. Here, we examine the epidemiology of associations between obesity and gastrointestinal cancer, explore potential mechanisms underlying these relationships and highlight important unanswered research questions.

Objective To evaluate the strength and validity of the evidence for the association between adiposity and risk of developing or dying from cancer.Design Umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and manual screening of retrieved references.Eligibility criteria Systematic reviews or meta-analyses of observational studies that evaluated the association between indices of adiposity and risk of developing or dying from cancer.Data synthesis Primary analysis focused on cohort studies exploring associations for continuous measures of adiposity. The evidence was graded into strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak after applying criteria that included the statistical significance of the random effects summary estimate and of the largest study in a meta-analysis, the number of cancer cases, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction intervals, small study effects, excess significance bias, and sensitivity analysis with credibility ceilings.Results 204 meta-analyses investigated associations between seven indices of adiposity and developing or dying from 36 primary cancers and their subtypes. Of the 95 meta-analyses that included cohort studies and used a continuous scale to measure adiposity, only 12 (13%) associations for nine cancers were supported by strong evidence. An increase in body mass index was associated with a higher risk of developing oesophageal adenocarcinoma; colon and rectal cancer in men; biliary tract system and pancreatic cancer; endometrial cancer in premenopausal women; kidney cancer; and multiple myeloma. Weight gain and waist to hip circumference ratio were associated with higher risks of postmenopausal breast cancer in women who have never used hormone replacement therapy and endometrial cancer, respectively. The increase in the risk of developing cancer for every 5 kg/m2 increase in body mass index ranged from 9% (relative risk 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.13) for rectal cancer among men to 56% (1.56, 1.34 to 1.81) for biliary tract system cancer. The risk of postmenopausal breast cancer among women who have never used HRT increased by 11% for each 5 kg of weight gain in adulthood (1.11, 1.09 to 1.13), and the risk of endometrial cancer increased by 21% for each 0.1 increase in waist to hip ratio (1.21, 1.13 to 1.29). Five additional associations were supported by strong evidence when categorical measures of adiposity were included: weight gain with colorectal cancer; body mass index with gallbladder, gastric cardia, and ovarian cancer; and multiple myeloma mortality.Conclusions Although the association of adiposity with cancer risk has been extensively studied, associations for only 11 cancers (oesophageal adenocarcinoma, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the gastric cardia, colon, rectum, biliary tract system, pancreas, breast, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) were supported by strong evidence. Other associations could be genuine, but substantial uncertainty remains. Obesity is becoming one of the biggest problems in public health; evidence on the strength of the associated risks may allow finer selection of those at higher risk of cancer, who could be targeted for personalised prevention strategies.

Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2, mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Background Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Conclusion Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

There is evidence that diet and nutrition are modifiable risk factors for several cancers, but associations may be flawed due to inherent biases. Nutritional epidemiology studies have largely relied on a single assessment of diet using food frequency questionnaires. We conduct an umbrella review of meta-analyses of observational studies to evaluate the strength and validity of the evidence for the association between food/nutrient intake and risk of developing or dying from 11 primary cancers. It is estimated that only few single food/nutrient and cancer associations are supported by strong or highly suggestive meta-analytic evidence, and future similar research is unlikely to change this evidence. Alcohol consumption is positively associated with risk of postmenopausal breast, colorectal, esophageal, head & neck and liver cancer. Consumption of dairy products, milk, calcium and wholegrains are inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Coffee consumption is inversely associated with risk of liver cancer and skin basal cell carcinoma. Diet and food intake have been associated with a risk of developing different types of cancer but individual nutritional epidemiology studies are prone to inherent bias. Here, the authors perform an umbrella review of meta-analyses of observational studies and show the level of evidence for associating food and nutrients to cancer risk.

Background Adiposity is a known risk factor for certain cancers; however, it is not clear whether the risk of cancer differs between individuals with high adiposity but different metabolic health status. The aim of this systematic literature review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was to evaluate associations between metabolic obesity phenotypes and overall and site-specific cancer risk. Methods PubMed and Embase databases were used to identify relevant cohort studies up to the 6th of June 2023. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks (SRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between metabolic obesity phenotypes and cancer risk. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Cochrane methods and the GRADE tool. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42024549511. Results A total of 15,556 records were screened, and 31 publications covering 15 unique cohort studies were included in this analysis. Of these studies, 22 were evaluated as being at low risk of bias and 9 at moderate risk of bias. Compared to metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy overweight/obese (MUOW/OB) individuals had a higher risk of overall (SRR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.02–1.44, n  = 3 studies, high certainty) and obesity-related cancers (SRR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.15–1.74, n  = 3, very low certainty). Specifically, MUOW/OB individuals were at higher risk of cancers of the postmenopausal breast (SRR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.17–1.48, n  = 7, low certainty), colorectum (SRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.16–1.31, n  = 6, moderate certainty), endometrium (SRR = 2.31, 95% CI = 2.08–2.57, n  = 4, high certainty), thyroid (SRR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.29–1.57, n  = 4, moderate certainty), kidney (SRR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.40–2.10, n  = 3, low certainty), pancreas (SRR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.24–1.47, n  = 3, high certainty), liver (SRR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.36–2.42, n  = 2, moderate certainty), gallbladder (SRR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.17–1.73, n  = 2, high certainty), bladder (SRR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.19–1.56, n  = 2, moderate certainty), and stomach (SRR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.12–2.01, n  = 2, high certainty). In addition, we found elevated risks of most of these cancers among individuals classified as MUNW and MHOW/OB phenotypes compared to those with MHNW phenotype. Our stratified analyses according to metabolic obesity phenotypes suggested that the elevated risks of some cancers were stronger in individuals with MUOW/OB versus those with MHOW/OB or MUNW phenotypes. Conclusion These findings suggest that both higher adiposity and metabolic dysfunction were independently associated with increased risk of several cancers, with the strongest associations generally observed among those with both metabolic dysfunction and obesity.

Uncertainty remains regarding the role of diet in colorectal cancer development. We examined associations of 97 dietary factors with colorectal cancer risk in 542,778 Million Women Study participants (12,251 incident cases over 16.6 years), and conducted a targeted genetic analysis in the ColoRectal Transdisciplinary Study, Colon Cancer Family Registry, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Alcohol (relative risk per 20 g/day=1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.20) and calcium (per 300 mg/day=0.83, 0.77–0.89) intakes had the strongest associations, followed by six dairy-related factors associated with calcium. We showed a positive association with red and processed meat intake and weaker inverse associations with breakfast cereal, fruit, wholegrains, carbohydrates, fibre, total sugars, folate, and vitamin C. Genetically predicted milk consumption was inversely associated with risk of colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers. We conclude that dairy products help protect against colorectal cancer, and that this is driven largely or wholly by calcium. Colorectal cancer has been linked to multiple environmental factors, however, the role of diet remains incompletely understood. Here, the authors complete a diet-wide association study and identify a potentially protective role of dairy intake in colorectal cancer incidence, driven largely by calcium.

Obesity has been positively associated with upper gastrointestinal cancers, but prospective data by subtype/subsite are limited. Obesity influences hormonal factors, which may play a role in these cancers. We examined anthropometry, body fat and reproductive factors in relation to oesophageal and gastric cancer by subtype/subsite in the UK Biobank cohort. Among 458,713 UK Biobank participants, 339 oesophageal adenocarcinomas, 124 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 137 gastric cardia and 92 gastric non-cardia cancers were diagnosed during a mean of 6.5 years follow-up. Cox models estimated multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Body mass index (BMI), hip circumference, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, total body fat and trunk fat were positively associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (highest vs lowest category: HR = 2.33, 95%-CI:1.65-3.28; HR = 1.56, 95%-CI:1.15-2.13; HR = 2.30, 95%-CI:1.47-3.57; HR = 1.71, 95%-CI:1.01-2.90; HR = 2.87, 95%-CI:1.88-4.38; HR = 1.96, 95%-CI:1.30-2.96; HR = 2.34, 95%-CI:1.70-3.22, respectively). Although there were no statistically significant associations in combined sex analyses, BMI (HR = 1.83, 95%-CI:1.00-3.37), waist circumference (HR = 2.21, 95%-CI:1.27-3.84) and waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.92, 95%-CI:1.11-3.29) were associated with gastric cardia cancer in men; however, mutual adjustment attenuated the associations for BMI and waist-to-hip ratio. For oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, statistically significant inverse associations were observed among women for BMI, hip circumference, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, total body fat and trunk fat, although they were based on small numbers. In addition, older age at first (HR = 0.44, 95%-CI:0.22-0.88) and last live birth (HR = 0.44, 95%-CI:0.22-0.87) were inversely associated with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and having a stillbirth/miscarriage/termination was positively associated (HR = 1.84, 95%-CI:1.10-3.07). Obesity and abdominal obesity specifically may be a risk factor for oesophageal adenocarcinoma and gastric cardia cancer in men. Some reproductive factors may be associated with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in women.

Colorectal cancer prognosis is dependent on stage, and measures to improve early detection are urgently needed. Using prospectively collected plasma samples from the population-based Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study, we evaluated protein biomarkers in relation to colorectal cancer risk. Applying a two-tiered approach, we analyzed 160 proteins in matched sequential samples from 58 incident colorectal cancer case–control pairs. Twenty-one proteins selected from both this discovery phase and the literature were then analyzed in a validation set of 450 case–control pairs. Odds ratios were estimated by conditional logistic regression. LASSO regression and ROC analysis were used for multi-marker analyses. In the main validation analysis, no proteins retained statistical significance. However, exploratory subgroup analyses showed associations between FGF-21 and colon cancer risk (multivariable OR per 1 SD: 1.23 95% CI 1.03–1.47) as well as between PPY and rectal cancer risk (multivariable OR per 1 SD: 1.47 95% CI 1.12–1.92). Adding protein markers to basic risk predictive models increased performance modestly. Our results highlight the challenge of developing biomarkers that are effective in the asymptomatic, prediagnostic window of opportunity for early detection of colorectal cancer. Distinguishing between cancer subtypes may improve prediction accuracy. However, single biomarkers or small panels may not be sufficient for effective precision screening.

We have previously shown that body mass index attenuates a positive association of platelet count (PLT) and inverse of mean platelet volume (MPV) with lung cancer risk in men. It is unclear whether fat mass, lean mass, or liver function tests (LFTs) show similar attenuations. Using bioelectrical impedance measurements (UK Biobank cohort) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we examined the associations of allometric fat-mass index (AFI, fat mass adjusted for height), allometric lean-mass index (ALI, fat-free mass adjusted for height and fat mass), and LFTs with lung cancer risk and their multiplicative and additive interactions with platelet parameters. Based on 1573 lung cancer cases in men and 1473 in women with body composition measurements (1541 in men; 1428 in women with biomarker measurements), AFI in women, ALI in both sexes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin in men were inversely associated, while gamma-glutamyl transferase in men and alkaline phosphatase in both sexes were positively associated with lung cancer risk. Only AFI and ALT interacted inversely with PLT and positively with MPV in men. The attenuation of the associations of platelet parameters with lung cancer risk by high-AFI and high-ALT in men suggests that adiposity-related factors hinder lung-cancer-related platelet associations.