Explore the vast range of titles available.

\"The Earth's climate system depends entirely on the Sun for its energy. Solar radiation warms the atmosphere and is fundamental to atmospheric composition, while the distribution of solar heating across the planet produces global wind patterns and contributes to the formation of clouds, storms, and rainfall. The Sun's Influence on Climate provides an unparalleled introduction to this vitally important relationship.This accessible primer covers the basic properties of the Earth's climate system, the structure and behavior of the Sun, and the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere. It explains how solar activity varies and how these variations affect the Earth's environment, from long-term paleoclimate effects to century timescales in the context of human-induced climate change, and from signals of the 11-year sunspot cycle to the impacts of solar emissions on space weather in our planet's upper atmosphere.Written by two of the leading authorities on the subject, The Sun's Influence on Climate is an essential primer for students and nonspecialists alike\"-- Provided by publisher.

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections.

There is ongoing interest in the global entropy production rate as a climate diagnostic and predictor, but progress has been limited by ambiguities in its definition; different conceptual boundaries of the climate system give rise to different internal production rates. Three viable options are described, estimated, and investigated here, two—the material and the total radiative (here “planetary”) entropy production rates—that are well established and a third that has only recently been considered but appears very promising. This new option is labeled the “transfer” entropy production rate and includes all irreversible processes that transfer heat within the climate, radiative, and material, but not those involved in the exchange of radiation with space. Estimates in three model climates put the material rate in the range 27–48 mW m −2 K −1 , the transfer rate at 67–76 mW m −2 K −1 , and the planetary rate at 1279–1312 mW m −2 K −1 . The climate relevance of each rate is probed by calculating their responses to climate changes in a simple radiative–convective model. An increased greenhouse effect causes a significant increase in the material and transfer entropy production rates but has no direct impact on the planetary rate. When the same surface temperature increase is forced by changing the albedo instead, the material and transfer entropy production rates increase less dramatically and the planetary rate also registers an increase. This is pertinent to solar radiation management as it demonstrates the difficulty of reversing greenhouse gas–mediated climate changes by albedo alterations. It is argued that the transfer perspective has particular significance in the climate system and warrants increased prominence.

Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective \"ozone layer\" around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60degS and 60degN outside the polar regions (60-90deg). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60degS and 60degN has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60degS and 60degN. We find that total column ozone between 60degS and 60degN appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

The Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) fluctuates on interannual and multidecadal timescales under the influence of internal variability and external forcings. Here, we provide observational evidence that the 11-y solar cycle (SC) affects the PWC on decadal timescales. We observe a robust reduction of east–west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following 1–2 y. This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific paired with an eastward shift of convective precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. We show that this is initiated by a thermodynamical response of the global hydrological cycle to surface warming, further amplified by atmosphere–ocean coupling, leading to larger positive ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific than expected from simple radiative forcing considerations. The observed solar modulation of the PWC is supported by a set of coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model simulations forced only by SC irradiance variations. We highlight the importance of a muted hydrology mechanism that acts to weaken the PWC. Demonstration of this mechanism acting on the 11-y SC timescale adds confidence in model predictions that the same mechanism also weakens the PWC under increasing greenhouse gas forcing.

An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested. Simulations with a climate model driven by satellite measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance show an atmospheric response to the solar minimum that resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables 1 . Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle 2 , 3 , 4 . With some possible exceptions 5 , 6 , it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal 7 , 8 . Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought 9 . Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions.

Solar spectrum variation and climate Current understanding suggests that radiative forcings over the course of an 11-year solar cycle are in phase with related influences on climate. Recent satellite data have revealed, however, that there seems to be a surprising spectral component to solar variability, at least in the declining phase of the current solar cycle: UV radiation decreases strongly while visible radiation increases. Joanna Haigh and colleagues now show that these spectral variations — when incorporated into a radiative-photochemical model — lead to decreases in ozone below 45 kilometres and increases above. As a consequence of the ozone changes, radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. This finding, although based on a short record from a potentially anomalous solar cycle, suggests that a major revision to our current understanding of solar forcing of climate may be in order. Radiative forcing over an '11-year' solar cycle is thought to be in phase with related influences on climate, but recent satellite data reveal a surprising spectral component in solar variability. These authors show that these spectral variations lead to decreases in ozone below 45 km and increases above. As a consequence, radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity, suggesting that a major revision of our current understanding of solar forcing of climate may be required. The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions—specifically those producing stratospheric ozone—and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth’s surface 1 . Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum 2 . Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2 µm and 2.4 µm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite 3 since April 2004, have revealed 4 that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45 km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.

Variations in solar activity, at least as observed in numbers of sunspots, have been apparent since ancient times but to what extent solar variability may affect global climate has been far more controversial. The subject had been in and out of fashion for at least two centuries but the current need to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change has brought it again to the forefront of meteorological research. The absolute radiometers carried by satellites since the late 1970s have produced indisputable evidence that total solar irradiance varies systematically over the 11-year sunspot cycle, relegating to history the term “solar constant”, but it is difficult to explain how the apparent response to the Sun, seen in many climate records, can be brought about by these rather small changes in radiation. This article reviews some of the evidence for a solar influence on the lower atmosphere and discusses some of the mechanisms whereby the Sun may produce more significant impacts than might be surmised from a consideration only of variations in total solar irradiance.

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

Many modelling studies suggest that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in interaction with the tropical Pacific background climate, will change with rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Solar geoengineering (reducing the solar flux from outer space) has been proposed as a means to counteract anthropogenic climate change. However, the effectiveness of solar geoengineering concerning a variety of aspects of Earth's climate is uncertain. Robust results are particularly challenging to obtain for ENSO because existing geoengineering simulations are too short (typically ∼ 50 years) to detect statistically significant changes in the highly variable tropical Pacific background climate. We here present results from a 1000-year-long solar-geoengineering simulation, G1, carried out with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3L. In agreement with previous studies, reducing the solar irradiance (4 %) to offset global mean surface warming in the model more than compensates the warming in the tropical Pacific that develops in the 4 × CO2 scenario. We see an overcooling of 0.3 ∘C and a 0.23 mm d−1 (5 %) reduction in mean rainfall over the tropical Pacific relative to preindustrial conditions in the G1 simulation, owing to the different latitudinal distributions of the shortwave (solar) and longwave (CO2) forcings. The location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Pacific, which moved 7.5∘ southwards under 4 × CO2, is restored to its preindustrial position. However, other aspects of the tropical Pacific mean climate are not reset as effectively. Relative to preindustrial conditions, in G1 the time-averaged zonal wind stress, zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and meridional SST gradient are each statistically significantly reduced by around 10 %, and the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is consistently weakened, resulting in conditions conducive to increased frequency of El Niño events. The overall amplitude of ENSO strengthens by 9 %–10 % in G1, but there is a 65 % reduction in the asymmetry between cold and warm events: cold events intensify more than warm events. Notably, the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events increases by ca. 60 % and 30 %, respectively, while the total number of El Niño events increases by around 10 %. All of these changes are statistically significant at either 95 or 99 % confidence level. Somewhat paradoxically, while the number of total and extreme events increases, the extreme El Niño events become weaker relative to the preindustrial state, while the extreme La Niña events become even stronger. That is, such extreme El Niño events in G1 become less intense than under preindustrial conditions but also more frequent. In contrast, extreme La Niña events become stronger in G1, which is in agreement with the general overcooling of the tropical Pacific in G1 relative to preindustrial conditions.