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Protein kinases are molecular machines with rich sequence variation that distinguishes the two main evolutionary branches – tyrosine kinases (TKs) from serine/threonine kinases (STKs). Using a sequence co-variation Potts statistical energy model we previously concluded that TK catalytic domains are more likely than STKs to adopt an inactive conformation with the activation loop in an autoinhibitory folded conformation, due to intrinsic sequence effects. Here we investigate the structural basis for this phenomenon by integrating the sequence-based model with structure-based molecular dynamics (MD) to determine the effects of mutations on the free energy difference between active and inactive conformations, using a thermodynamic cycle involving many (n = 108) protein-mutation free energy perturbation (FEP) simulations in the active and inactive conformations. The sequence and structure-based results are consistent and support the hypothesis that the inactive conformation DFG-out Activation Loop Folded, is a functional regulatory state that has been stabilized in TKs relative to STKs over the course of their evolution via the accumulation of residue substitutions in the activation loop and catalytic loop that facilitate distinct substrate binding modes in trans and additional modes of regulation in cis for TKs. In this study, the authors identify a mechanism for the distinct conformational preferences of tyrosine kinases vs serine/threonine kinases and suggest that the evolution of tyrosine kinase function can explain these conformational differences.

Potts models and variational autoencoders (VAEs) have recently gained popularity as generative protein sequence models (GPSMs) to explore fitness landscapes and predict mutation effects. Despite encouraging results, current model evaluation metrics leave unclear whether GPSMs faithfully reproduce the complex multi-residue mutational patterns observed in natural sequences due to epistasis. Here, we develop a set of sequence statistics to assess the “generative capacity” of three current GPSMs: the pairwise Potts Hamiltonian, the VAE, and the site-independent model. We show that the Potts model’s generative capacity is largest, as the higher-order mutational statistics generated by the model agree with those observed for natural sequences, while the VAE’s lies between the Potts and site-independent models. Importantly, our work provides a new framework for evaluating and interpreting GPSM accuracy which emphasizes the role of higher-order covariation and epistasis, with broader implications for probabilistic sequence models in general. Generative models have become increasingly popular in protein design, yet rigorous metrics that allow the comparison of these models are lacking. Here, the authors propose a set of such metrics and use them to compare three popular models.

The rapid evolution of HIV is constrained by interactions between mutations which affect viral fitness. In this work, we explore the role of epistasis in determining the mutational fitness landscape of HIV for multiple drug target proteins, including Protease, Reverse Transcriptase, and Integrase. Epistatic interactions between residues modulate the mutation patterns involved in drug resistance, with unambiguous signatures of epistasis best seen in the comparison of the Potts model predicted and experimental HIV sequence “prevalences” expressed as higher-order marginals (beyond triplets) of the sequence probability distribution. In contrast, experimental measures of fitness such as viral replicative capacities generally probe fitness effects of point mutations in a single background, providing weak evidence for epistasis in viral systems. The detectable effects of epistasis are obscured by higher evolutionary conservation at sites. While double mutant cycles in principle, provide one of the best ways to probe epistatic interactions experimentally without reference to a particular background, we show that the analysis is complicated by the small dynamic range of measurements. Overall, we show that global pairwise interaction Potts models are necessary for predicting the mutational landscape of viral proteins.

Inactive conformations of protein kinase catalytic domains where the DFG motif has a “DFG-out” orientation and the activation loop is folded present a druggable binding pocket that is targeted by FDA-approved ‘type-II inhibitors’ in the treatment of cancers. Tyrosine kinases (TKs) typically show strong binding affinity with a wide spectrum of type-II inhibitors while serine/threonine kinases (STKs) usually bind more weakly which we suggest here is due to differences in the folded to extended conformational equilibrium of the activation loop between TKs vs. STKs. To investigate this, we use sequence covariation analysis with a Potts Hamiltonian statistical energy model to guide absolute binding free-energy molecular dynamics simulations of 74 protein-ligand complexes. Using the calculated binding free energies together with experimental values, we estimated free-energy costs for the large-scale (~17–20 Å) conformational change of the activation loop by an indirect approach, circumventing the very challenging problem of simulating the conformational change directly. We also used the Potts statistical potential to thread large sequence ensembles over active and inactive kinase states. The structure-based and sequence-based analyses are consistent; together they suggest TKs evolved to have free-energy penalties for the classical ‘folded activation loop’ DFG-out conformation relative to the active conformation, that is, on average, 4–6 kcal/mol smaller than the corresponding values for STKs. Potts statistical energy analysis suggests a molecular basis for this observation, wherein the activation loops of TKs are more weakly ‘anchored’ against the catalytic loop motif in the active conformation and form more stable substrate-mimicking interactions in the inactive conformation. These results provide insights into the molecular basis for the divergent functional properties of TKs and STKs, and have pharmacological implications for the target selectivity of type-II inhibitors.

The development of drug resistance in HIV is the result of primary mutations whose effects on viral fitness depend on the entire genetic background, a phenomenon called ‘epistasis’. Based on protein sequences derived from drug-experienced patients in the Stanford HIV database, we use a co-evolutionary (Potts) Hamiltonian model to provide direct confirmation of epistasis involving many simultaneous mutations. Building on earlier work, we show that primary mutations leading to drug resistance can become highly favored (or entrenched) by the complex mutation patterns arising in response to drug therapy despite being disfavored in the wild-type background, and provide the first confirmation of entrenchment for all three drug-target proteins: protease, reverse transcriptase, and integrase; a comparative analysis reveals that NNRTI-induced mutations behave differently from the others. We further show that the likelihood of resistance mutations can vary widely in patient populations, and from the population average compared to specific molecular clones.

Phenotypic states and evolutionary trajectories available to cell populations are ultimately dictated by complex interactions among DNA, RNA, proteins, and other molecular species. Here we study how evolution of gene regulation in a single-cell eukaryote S. cerevisiae is affected by interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and their cognate DNA sites. Our study is informed by a comprehensive collection of genomic binding sites and high-throughput in vitro measurements of TF-DNA binding interactions. Using an evolutionary model for monomorphic populations evolving on a fitness landscape, we infer fitness as a function of TF-DNA binding to show that the shape of the inferred fitness functions is in broad agreement with a simple functional form inspired by a thermodynamic model of two-state TF-DNA binding. However, the effective parameters of the model are not always consistent with physical values, indicating selection pressures beyond the biophysical constraints imposed by TF-DNA interactions. We find little statistical support for the fitness landscape in which each position in the binding site evolves independently, indicating that epistasis is common in the evolution of gene regulation. Finally, by correlating TF-DNA binding energies with biological properties of the sites or the genes they regulate, we are able to rule out several scenarios of site-specific selection, under which binding sites of the same TF would experience different selection pressures depending on their position in the genome. These findings support the existence of universal fitness landscapes which shape evolution of all sites for a given TF, and whose properties are determined in part by the physics of protein-DNA interactions.

Polycystin-1 (PC1) is the protein product of the PKD1 gene whose mutation causes autosomal dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD). PC1 is an atypical G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) with an autocatalytic GAIN domain that cleaves PC1 into extracellular N-terminal and membrane-embedded C-terminal (CTF) fragments. Recently, activation of PC1 CTF signaling was shown to be regulated by a stalk tethered agonist (TA), resembling the mechanism observed for adhesion GPCRs. Here, synthetic peptides of the first 9- (p9), 17- (p17), and 21-residues (p21) of the PC1 stalk TA were shown to re-activate signaling by a stalkless CTF mutant in human cell culture assays. Novel Peptide Gaussian accelerated molecular dynamics (Pep-GaMD) simulations elucidated binding conformations of p9, p17, and p21 and revealed multiple specific binding regions to the stalkless CTF. Peptide agonists binding to the TOP domain of PC1 induced close TOP-putative pore loop interactions, a characteristic feature of stalk TA-mediated PC1 CTF activation. Additional sequence coevolution analyses showed the peptide binding regions were consistent with covarying residue pairs identified between the TOP domain and the stalk TA. These insights into the structural dynamic mechanism of PC1 activation by TA peptide agonists provide an in-depth understanding that will facilitate the development of therapeutics targeting PC1 for ADPKD treatment.

Array programming provides a powerful, compact and expressive syntax for accessing, manipulating and operating on data in vectors, matrices and higher-dimensional arrays. NumPy is the primary array programming library for the Python language. It has an essential role in research analysis pipelines in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, astronomy, geoscience, biology, psychology, materials science, engineering, finance and economics. For example, in astronomy, NumPy was an important part of the software stack used in the discovery of gravitational waves 1 and in the first imaging of a black hole 2 . Here we review how a few fundamental array concepts lead to a simple and powerful programming paradigm for organizing, exploring and analysing scientific data. NumPy is the foundation upon which the scientific Python ecosystem is constructed. It is so pervasive that several projects, targeting audiences with specialized needs, have developed their own NumPy-like interfaces and array objects. Owing to its central position in the ecosystem, NumPy increasingly acts as an interoperability layer between such array computation libraries and, together with its application programming interface (API), provides a flexible framework to support the next decade of scientific and industrial analysis. NumPy is the primary array programming library for Python; here its fundamental concepts are reviewed and its evolution into a flexible interoperability layer between increasingly specialized computational libraries is discussed.

Understanding the complex mutation patterns that give rise to drug resistant viral strains provides a foundation for developing more effective treatment strategies for HIV/AIDS. Multiple sequence alignments of drug-experienced HIV-1 protease sequences contain networks of many pair correlations which can be used to build a (Potts) Hamiltonian model of these mutation patterns. Using this Hamiltonian model, we translate HIV-1 protease sequence covariation data into quantitative predictions for the probability of observing specific mutation patterns which are in agreement with the observed sequence statistics. We find that the statistical energies of the Potts model are correlated with the fitness of individual proteins containing therapy-associated mutations as estimated by in vitro measurements of protein stability and viral infectivity. We show that the penalty for acquiring primary resistance mutations depends on the epistatic interactions with the sequence background. Primary mutations which lead to drug resistance can become highly advantageous (or entrenched) by the complex mutation patterns which arise in response to drug therapy despite being destabilizing in the wildtype background. Anticipating epistatic effects is important for the design of future protease inhibitor therapies.

Polycystin-1 (PC1) is the protein product of the PKD1 gene whose mutation causes autosomal dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD). PC1 is an atypical G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) with an autocatalytic GAIN domain that cleaves PC1 into extracellular N-terminal and membrane-embedded C-terminal (CTF) fragments. Recently, activation of PC1 CTF signaling was shown to be regulated by a stalk tethered agonist (TA), resembling the mechanism observed for adhesion GPCRs. Here, synthetic peptides of the first 9- (p9), 17- (p17), and 21-residues (p21) of the PC1 stalk TA were shown to re-activate signaling by a stalkless CTF mutant in human cell culture assays. Novel Peptide Gaussian accelerated molecular dynamics (Pep-GaMD) simulations elucidated binding conformations of p9, p17, and p21 and revealed multiple specific binding regions to the stalkless CTF. Peptide agonists binding to the TOP domain of PC1 induced close TOP-putative pore loop interactions, a characteristic feature of stalk TA-mediated PC1 CTF activation. Additional sequence coevolution analyses showed the peptide binding regions were consistent with covarying residue pairs identified between the TOP domain and the stalk TA. These insights into the structural dynamic mechanism of PC1 activation by TA peptide agonists provide an in-depth understanding that will facilitate the development of therapeutics targeting PC1 for ADPKD treatment.