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The 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia triggered a significant energy crisis in the EU27 (27 EU member countries) and UK (hereafter EU27&UK), leading to profound changes in their natural gas supply, transmission, and consumption dynamics. To analyze those pattern shifts, we first update our natural gas supply dataset, EUGasSC, with daily country- and sector-specific supply sources. We then provide a newly constructed daily intra-EU (European Union) natural gas transmission dataset, EUGasNet, with specified supply sources utilizing the ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) and EUGasSC data. To further understand the economic and climatic impacts, we finally developed EUGasImpact, a daily dataset with sector-specific driving factors of consumption changes based on change attribution models using multiple open datasets. Those datasets are available on the Zenodo platform: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11175364 (Zhou et al., 2024). On the supply side, Russian gas supply to the EU27&UK was cut by 87.8 % (976.8 TW h per winter) during the post-invasion winters compared to the previous winters. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports became the largest gas supply source, rising from 20.7 % to 37.5 % of the total gas supply. Our intra-EU gas transmission analysis showed that the gas transmission network was adjusted to mitigate the large gas shortfalls in Germany and distribute LNG arrivals. Total gas consumption fell by 19.0 %, which was driven by (1) consumer behavioral changes in household heating (contributed to 29 % of the total reduction; the following numbers are also percentage contributions to the total reduction); (2) drops in industrial production (25 %); (3) heating drops due to the warmer winter temperatures (11 %); (4) shifts towards renewable electricity including wind, solar, and hydro (10 %); (5) a decline in gas-powered electricity generation (9 %); (6) adoption of energy-efficient heat pumps for industrial gas heating (4 %); (7) shifts towards non-renewable electricity including coal, oil, and nuclear (1 %); and (8) other unmodeled factors (11 %). We evaluated the benefits and costs associated with these pattern changes and discussed whether these changes would potentially lead to long-term structural changes in the EU energy dynamics. Our datasets and these insights can provide valuable perspectives for understanding the consequences of this energy crisis and the challenges to future energy security in the EU.

Russia is the largest natural gas supplier to the European Union (EU). The invasion of Ukraine was followed by a cutoff of gas supplies from Russia to many EU countries, and the EU is planning to ban or drastically reduce its dependence on Russia. We provide a dataset of daily gas consumption in five sectors (household and public building heating, power, industry, and other sectors) with supply source shares in the EU27 (27 EU member countries) and UK from 2016 to 2022. The datasets are available at Zenodo platform: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7549233 (Zhou et al., 2022). The dataset separates the contributions of Russian imports, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and other supply sources to both direct supply and storage supply for gas consumption estimations. The dataset was developed with a gas network flow simulation model based on mass flow balance by combining data from multiple datasets including daily ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) pipeline gas transport and storage, ENTSOE (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) daily power production from gas, and Eurostat monthly gas consumption statistics per sector. The annual consumption data were validated against the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and Eurostat datasets. We secondly analyzed the share of gas supplied by Russia in each country to quantify the “gap” that would result from a cessation of all Russian exports to Europe. Thirdly, we collected multiple data sources to assess how national gaps could be alleviated by (1) reducing the demand for heating in a plausible way using the lower envelope of gas empirical consumption – temperature functions, (2) increasing power generation from sources other than gas, (3) transferring gas savings from countries with surplus to those with deficits, and (4) increasing imports from other countries like Norway, the USA, Australia, and northern African countries from either pipelines or LNG imports, accounting for existing capacities. Our results indicate that it should be theoretically possible for the EU to collectively make up for a sudden shortfall of Russian gas by combining the four solutions together, provided a perfect collaboration between EU countries and the UK to redistribute gas from countries with surplus to those with deficits. Further analyses are required to investigate the implications with respect to the costs, including social, economic, and institutional dimensions; political barriers; and negative impacts on climate policies, with inevitable increases in CO2 emissions if the use of coal is ramped up in the power sector.

A differentiated natural gas market is emerging as a key mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across global natural gas supply chains. Trust in such voluntary markets across civil society, industry and governments depends on a transparent framework for reporting independently verifiable and accurate emissions data.