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Projecting regional change
How accurate are regional projections of climate change derived from downscaling global climate model results? Techniques to downscale global climate model (GCM) output and produce high-resolution climate change projections have emerged over the past two decades. GCM projections of future climate change, with typical resolutions of about 100 km, are now routinely downscaled to resolutions as high as hundreds of meters. Pressure to use these techniques to produce policy-relevant information is enormous. To prevent bad decisions, the climate science community must identify downscaling's strengths and limitations and develop best practices. A starting point for this discussion is to acknowledge that downscaled climate signals arising from warming are more credible than those arising from circulation changes.
Journal Article
100 things to know about : numbers, computers & coding
When was the webcam invented and why? Do imaginary numbers exist? What is fuzzy logic? Find the answers these questions about the amazing world of numbers, computers and coding, along with loads of other curious, amazing and mind-boggling facts, in this eye-catching book that is absolutely bursting with information.
BOOK
On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback
Snow-albedo feedback (SAF) is examined in 25 climate change simulations participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). SAF behavior is compared to the feedback’s behavior in the previous (CMIP3) generation of global models. SAF strength exhibits a fivefold spread across CMIP5 models, ranging from 0.03 to 0.16 W m
−2
K
−1
(ensemble-mean = 0.08 W m
−2
K
−1
). This accounts for much of the spread in 21st century warming of Northern Hemisphere land masses, and is very similar to the spread found in CMIP3 models. As with the CMIP3 models, there is a high degree of correspondence between the magnitudes of seasonal cycle and climate change versions of the feedback. Here we also show that their geographical footprint is similar. The ensemble-mean SAF strength is close to an observed estimate of the real climate’s seasonal cycle feedback strength. SAF strength is strongly correlated with the climatological surface albedo when the ground is covered by snow. The inter-model variation in this quantity is surprisingly large, ranging from 0.39 to 0.75. Models with large surface albedo when these regions are snow-covered will also have a large surface albedo contrast between snow-covered and snow-free regions, and therefore a correspondingly large SAF. Widely-varying treatments of vegetation masking of snow-covered surfaces are probably responsible for the spread in surface albedo where snow occurs, and the persistent spread in SAF in global climate models.
Journal Article
Fitness benefits to bacteria of carrying prophages and prophage-encoded antibiotic-resistance genes peak in different environments
Understanding the role of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in adaptation is a key challenge in evolutionary biology. In microbes, an important mechanism of HGT is prophage acquisition (phage genomes integrated into bacterial chromosomes). Prophages can influence bacterial fitness via the transfer of beneficial genes (including antibiotic-resistance genes, ARGs), protection from superinfecting phages, or switching to a lytic lifecycle that releases free phages infectious to competitors. We expect these effects to depend on environmental conditions because of, for example, environment-dependent induction of the lytic lifecycle. However, it remains unclear how costs/benefits of prophages vary across environments. Here, studying prophages with/without ARGs in Escherichia coli, we disentangled the effects of prophages alone and adaptive genes they carry. In competition with prophage-free strains, benefits from prophages and ARGs peaked in different environments. Prophages were most beneficial when induction of the lytic lifecycle was common, whereas ARGs were more beneficial upon antibiotic exposure and with reduced prophage induction. Acquisition of prophage-encoded ARGs by competing strains was most common when prophage induction, and therefore free phages, were common. Thus, selection on prophages and adaptive genes they carry varies independently across environments, which is important for predicting the spread of mobile/integrating genetic elements and their role in evolution.
Journal Article
Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming
A key indicator of climate change is the greater frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes across much of the globe. In fact, several studies have already documented increased regional precipitation extremes over recent decades. Future projections of these changes, however, vary widely across climate models. Using two generations of models, here we demonstrate an emergent relationship between the future increased occurrence of precipitation extremes aggregated over the globe and the observable change in their frequency over recent decades. This relationship is robust in constraining frequency changes in precipitation extremes in two separate ensembles and under two future emissions pathways (reducing intermodel spread by 20–40%). Moreover, this relationship is also apparent when the analysis is limited to near-global land regions. These constraints suggest that historical global precipitation extremes will occur roughly 32 ± 8% more often than at present by 2100 under a medium-emissions pathway (and 55 ± 13% more often under high emissions).Climate change is causing more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, yet the changes are difficult to project. Here, climate models are used to develop an emergent constraint; applying this suggests a 32% increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes by the end of the century.
Journal Article
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California
Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.
Journal Article
Resident microbial communities inhibit growth and antibiotic-resistance evolution of Escherichia coli in human gut microbiome samples
Countering the rise of antibiotic-resistant pathogens requires improved understanding of how resistance emerges and spreads in individual species, which are often embedded in complex microbial communities such as the human gut microbiome. Interactions with other microorganisms in such communities might suppress growth and resistance evolution of individual species (e.g., via resource competition) but could also potentially accelerate resistance evolution via horizontal transfer of resistance genes. It remains unclear how these different effects balance out, partly because it is difficult to observe them directly. Here, we used a gut microcosm approach to quantify the effect of three human gut microbiome communities on growth and resistance evolution of a focal strain of Escherichia coli. We found the resident microbial communities not only suppressed growth and colonisation by focal E. coli but also prevented it from evolving antibiotic resistance upon exposure to a beta-lactam antibiotic. With samples from all three human donors, our focal E. coli strain only evolved antibiotic resistance in the absence of the resident microbial community, even though we found resistance genes, including a highly effective resistance plasmid, in resident microbial communities. We identified physical constraints on plasmid transfer that can explain why our focal strain failed to acquire some of these beneficial resistance genes, and we found some chromosomal resistance mutations were only beneficial in the absence of the resident microbiota. This suggests, depending on in situ gene transfer dynamics, interactions with resident microbiota can inhibit antibiotic-resistance evolution of individual species.
Journal Article
Exposure to lysed bacteria can promote or inhibit growth of neighboring live bacteria depending on local abiotic conditions
Abstract
Microbial death is extremely common in nature, yet the ecological role of dead bacteria is unclear. Dead cells are assumed to provide nutrients to surrounding microbes, but may also affect them in other ways. We found that adding lysate prepared from dead bacteria to cultures of Escherichia coli in nutrient-rich conditions suppressed their final population density. This is in stark contrast with the notion that the primary role of dead cells is nutritional, although we also observed this type of effect when we added dead bacteria to cultures that were not supplied with other nutrients. We only observed the growth-suppressive effect of our dead-bacteria treatment after they had undergone significant lysis, suggesting a key role for cellular contents released during lysis. Transcriptomic analysis indicated changes in gene expression in response to dead cells in growing populations, particularly in genes involved in motility. This was supported by experiments with genetic knockouts and copy-number manipulation. Because lysis is commonplace in natural and clinical settings, the growth-suppressive effect of dead cells we describe here may be a widespread and previously unrecognized constraint on bacterial population growth.
Dead bacterial cells can both support and inhibit growth of other bacteria around them based on how they died, and the local abiotic environment.
Journal Article