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Multimorbidity increases the risk of all-cause mortality, and along with age, is an independent risk factor for severe disease and mortality from COVID-19. Inequities in the social determinants of health contributed to increased mortality from COVID-19 among disadvantaged populations. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of multimorbid conditions and associations with the social determinants of health in the US prior to the pandemic. Methods Data from the 2017–18 cycle of NHANES were used to determine the prevalence of 13 chronic conditions, and the prevalence of having 0, 1, or 2 or more of those conditions, among the US adult population aged ≥ 20 years. Multimorbidity was defined as having 2 or more of these conditions. Data were stratified according to demographic, socioeconomic and indicators of health access, and analyses including logistic regression, performed to determine the factors associated with multimorbidity. Results The prevalence of multimorbidity was 58.4% (95% CI 55.2 to 61.7). Multimorbidity was strongly associated with age and was highly prevalent among those aged 20–29 years at 22.2% (95% CI 16.9 to 27.6) and continued to increase with older age. The prevalence of multimorbidity was highest in those defined as Other or multiple races (66.9%), followed in decreasing frequency by rates among non-Hispanic Whites (61.2%), non-Hispanic Blacks (57.4%), Hispanic (52.0%) and Asian (41.3%) groups. Logistic regression showed a statistically significant relationship between multimorbidity and age, as expected. Asian race was associated with a reduced likelihood of 2 or more chronic conditions (OR 0.4; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.57; P  < 0.0001). Socioeconomic factors were related to multimorbidity. Being above the poverty level (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.46 to 0.91, p  = 0.013); and a lack of regular access to health care (OR 0.61 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.88, p  = 0.008) were both associated with a reduced likelihood of multimorbidity. Furthermore, there was a borderline association between not having health insurance and reduced likelihood of multimorbidity (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40 to 1.0; p  = 0.053). Conclusions There are high levels of multimorbidity in the US adult population, evident from young adulthood and increasing with age. Cardiometabolic causes of multimorbidity were highly prevalent, especially obesity, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes; conditions subsequently found to be associated with severe disease and death from COVID-19. A lack of access to care was paradoxically associated with reduced likelihood of comorbidity, likely linked to underdiagnosis of chronic conditions. Obesity, poverty, and lack of access to healthcare are factors related to multimorbidity and were also relevant to the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, that must be addressed through comprehensive social and public policy measures. More research is needed on the etiology and determinants of multimorbidity, on those affected, patterns of co-morbidity, and implications for individual health and impact on health systems and society to promote optimal outcomes. Comprehensive public health policies are needed to tackle multimorbidity and reduce disparities in the social determinants of health, as well as to provide universal access to healthcare.

Globally, the majority of persons born with sickle cell disease do not have access to hydroxyurea or more expensive interventions. The objectives were to estimate the survival in homozygous sickle cell disease, unbiased by symptomatic selection and to ascertain the causes of death in a pre-hydroxyurea population. The utility of early life biomarkers and genetically determined phenotypes to predict survival was assessed. A cohort study based on neonatal diagnosis was undertaken at the Sickle Cell Unit, a specialist clinic delivering care to persons with sickle cell disease in Jamaica. Screening of 100,000 deliveries detected 315 babies with homozygous sickle cell disease of whom 311 have been followed from birth for periods up to 43 years. Pneumococcal prophylaxis and teaching mothers splenic palpation were important, inexpensive interventions. Anticipatory guidance, routine care and out-patient acute care were provided. Each participant was classified as alive, dead, or defaulted (usually emigration). Causes of death were ascertained from clinical records and/or post-mortem reports. Survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier function. Sex-adjusted Cox semi-parametric proportional hazards and Weibull modelling were used to assess the effects on survival of biomarkers. Survival to 40 years was 55.5% (95% CI 48.7% to 61.7%). Acute Chest Syndrome (n = 31) and septicemia (n = 14) were significant causes of death at all ages. Acute splenic sequestration (n = 12) was the most common cause of early deaths. Survival was significantly shorter in those with lower hemoglobin at 1 year, high total nucleated count at 1 year, and a history of dactylitis ever. In these hydroxyurea naïve patients, survival into midlife was common. Causes of death were often age specific and some may be preventable. Early life biomarkers predictive of decreased survival in SS disease identify a patient group likely to benefit from close clinical supervision and potentially high risk therapies.

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is crucial for effective prevention and resource allocation. However, few CVD risk estimation tools consider social determinants of health (SDoH), despite their known impact on CVD risk. We aimed to estimate 10-year CVD risk in the Eastern Caribbean Health Outcomes Research Network Cohort Study (ECS) across multiple risk estimation instruments and assess the association between SDoH and CVD risk. Five widely used CVD risk estimation tools (Framingham and WHO laboratory, both laboratory and non-laboratory-based, and ASCVD) were applied using data from ECS participants aged 40-74 without a history of CVD. SDoH variables included educational attainment, occupational status, household food security, and perceived social status. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare differences in the association between selected SDoH and high CVD risk according to the five instruments. Among 1,777 adult participants, estimated 10-year CVD risk varied substantially across tools. Framingham non-lab and ASCVD demonstrated strong agreement in categorizing participants as high risk. Framingham non-lab categorized the greatest percentage as high risk, followed by Framingham lab, ASCVD, WHO lab, and WHO non-lab. Fifteen times more people were classified as high risk by Framingham non-lab compared with WHO non-lab (31% vs 2%). Mean estimated 10-year risk in the sample was over 2.5 times higher using Framingham non-lab vs WHO non-lab (17.3% vs 6.6%). We found associations between food insecurity, those with the lowest level compared to the highest level of education, and non-professional occupation and increased estimated CVD risk. Our findings highlight significant discrepancies in CVD risk estimation across tools and underscore the potential impact of incorporating SDoH into risk assessment. Further research is needed to validate and refine existing risk tools, particularly in ethnically diverse populations and resource-constrained settings, and to develop race- and ethnicity-free risk estimation models that consider SDoH.

Background Depressive disorder is the largest contributor to years lived with disability in the Caribbean, adding 948 per 100,000 in 2013. Depression is also a major risk factor for suicidal behaviour. Social inequalities influence the occurrence of depression, yet little is known about the social inequalities of this condition in the Caribbean. In support of the 2011 Rio Political Declaration on addressing health inequities, this article presents a systematic review of the role of social determinants on depression and its suicidal behaviours in the Caribbean. Methods Eight databases were searched for observational studies reporting associations between social determinants and depression frequency, severity, or outcomes. Based on the PROGRESS-plus checklist, we considered 9 social determinant groups (of 15 endpoints) for 6 depression endpoints, totalling 90 possible ways (‘relationship groups’) to explore the role of social determinants on depression. Studies with ≥50 participants conducted in Caribbean territories between 2004 and 2014 were eligible. The review was conducted according to STROBE and PRISMA guidelines. Results were planned as a narrative synthesis, with meta-analysis if possible. Results From 3951 citations, 55 articles from 45 studies were included. Most were classified as serious risk of bias. Fifty-seven relationship groups were reported by the 55 included articles, leaving 33 relationship groups (37%) without an evidence base. Most associations were reported for gender, age, residence, marital status, and education. Depression, its severity, and its outcomes were more common among females (except suicide which was more common among males), early and middle adolescents (among youth), and those with lower levels of education. Marriage emerged as both a risk and protective factor for depression score and prevalence, while several inequality relationships in Haiti were in contrast to typical trends. Conclusion The risk of bias and few numbers of studies within relationship groups restricted the synthesis of Caribbean evidence on social inequalities of depression. Along with more research focusing on regional social inequalities, attempts at standardizing reporting guidelines for observational studies of inequality and studies examining depression is necessitated. This review offers as a benchmark to prioritize future research into the social determinants of depression frequency and outcomes in the Caribbean.

Background High sodium diets with inadequate potassium and high sodium-to-potassium ratios are a known determinant of hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The Caribbean island of Barbados has a high prevalence of hypertension and mortality from CVD. Our objectives were to estimate sodium and potassium excretion, to compare estimated levels with recommended intakes and to identify the main food sources of sodium in Barbadian adults. Methods A sub-sample ( n  = 364; 25–64 years) was randomly selected from the representative population-based Health of the Nation cross-sectional study ( n  = 1234), in 2012–13. A single 24-h urine sample was collected from each participant, following a strictly applied protocol designed to reject incomplete samples, for the measurement of sodium and potassium excretion (in mg), which were used as proxy estimates of dietary intake. In addition, sensitivity analyses based on estimated completeness of urine collection from urine creatinine values were undertaken. Multiple linear regression was used to examine differences in sodium and potassium excretion, and the sodium-to-potassium ratio, by age, sex and educational level. Two 24-h recalls were used to identify the main dietary sources of sodium. All analyses were weighted for the survey design. Results Mean sodium excretion was 2656 (2488–2824) mg/day, with 67% (62–73%) exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended limit of 2000 mg/d. Mean potassium excretion was 1469 (1395–1542) mg/d; < 0.5% met recommended minimum intake levels. Mean sodium-to-potassium ratio was 2.0 (1.9–2.1); not one participant had a ratio that met WHO recommendations. Higher potassium intake and lower sodium-to-potassium ratio were independently associated with age and tertiary education. Sensitivity analyses based on urine creatinine values did not notably alter these findings. Conclusions In this first nationally representative study with objective assessment of sodium and potassium excretion in a Caribbean population in over 20 years, levels of sodium intake were high, and potassium intake was low. Younger age and lower educational level were associated with the highest sodium-to-potassium ratios. These findings provide baseline values for planning future policy interventions for non-communicable disease prevention.

A surge in severe cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in children would present unique challenges for hospitals and public health preparedness efforts in the United States. To provide evidence-based estimates of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and projected cumulative numbers of severely ill pediatric COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalization during the US 2020 pandemic. Empirical case projection study. Adjusted pediatric severity proportions and adjusted pediatric criticality proportions were derived from clinical and spatiotemporal modeling studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China for the period January-February 2020. Estimates of total children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States through April 6, 2020, were calculated using US pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) cases and the adjusted pediatric criticality proportion. Projected numbers of severely and critically ill children with COVID-19 were derived by applying the adjusted severity and criticality proportions to US population data, under several scenarios of cumulative pediatric infection proportion (CPIP). By April 6, 2020, there were 74 children who had been reported admitted to PICUs in 19 states, reflecting an estimated 176 190 children nationwide infected with SARS-CoV-2 (52 381 infants and toddlers younger than 2 years, 42 857 children aged 2-11 years, and 80 952 children aged 12-17 years). Under a CPIP scenario of 5%, there would be 3.7 million children infected with SARS-CoV-2, 9907 severely ill children requiring hospitalization, and 1086 critically ill children requiring PICU admission. Under a CPIP scenario of 50%, 10 865 children would require PICU admission, 99 073 would require hospitalization for severe pneumonia, and 37.0 million would be infected with SARS-CoV-2. Because there are 74.0 million children 0 to 17 years old in the United States, the projected numbers of severe cases could overextend available pediatric hospital care resources under several moderate CPIP scenarios for 2020 despite lower severity of COVID-19 in children than in adults.

Data on disparities in mortality within low and middle income countries are limited, with little published data from the Caribbean or Central America. Our aim was to investigate disparities in overall and cause specific premature adult mortality in the multi-ethnic middle income country of Belize. Mortality data from Belize 2008-2010 classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10 and the 2010 census stratified by age and ethnicity were used to calculate age, sex, and ethnic specific mortality rates for those 15-59 years, and life table analysis was used to estimate the probability of death between the ages of 15 and 59 (45q15). The probability of death among those aged 15 to 59 years was 18.1% (women 13.5%, men 22.7%). Creole and Garifuna ethnic groups have three times the 45q15 probability of death compared to Mayan and Mestizo groups (Creole 31.2%, Garifuna 31.1%, Mayan 10.2%, Mestizo 12.0%). This pattern of ethnic disparity existed in both sexes but was greater in men. The probability of death from injuries was 14.8% among Creole men, more than twice the rate of other ethnicities and peaks among young Creole men. These deaths are dominated by homicides and unspecified deaths involving firearms. Marked disparities in mortality between ethnic groups exist in this Central American/Caribbean country, from rates that are typical of high-income countries to those of low-income countries. The pattern of these extreme differences likely suggests that they reflect underlying social determinants rooted in the country's colonial past.

Since 2009, seven countries in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines, have been utilizing a laboratory referral service for HIV-1 viral load (VL) offered by The Ladymeade Reference Unit (LRU) Laboratory, Barbados. The objective of this study was to evaluate 5 year VL trends in the six larger OECS countries participating in this regional referral service. Blood samples were collected in source countries and transported to Barbados as frozen plasma according to a standardized protocol. Plasma specimens were amplified by RT PCR on a Roche TaqMan 48 analyser (Roche Diagnostics, Panama City, Panama). VL was considered optimally suppressed below a threshold level of < 200 HIV-1 copies/mL of blood. The same threshold was used as a binary indicator in an analysis of the secular change in VL suppression. Montserrat was excluded due to insufficient number of samples. A steady rise in VL referrals from OECS countries was recorded, rising from 312 samples in 2009 to 1,060 samples in 2013. A total of 3,543 samples were tested, with a sample rejection rate (9.2%) mostly due to breaks in the cold chain. Aggregate VL data showed the odds of VL suppression in the Eastern Caribbean improved by 66% for each additional year after 2009 (Odds Ratio 1.66 [95% CI 1.46 to 1.88]; p<0.001). We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a regional laboratory referral service for HIV VL monitoring in the Eastern Caribbean. Aggregate VL trends showed a significant year-on-year improvement in VL suppression, implying public health benefits through treatment as prevention in the OECS. VL provides a powerful monitoring & evaluation tool for strengthening HIV programs at country level among the small island states participating in this regional referral network.

Background Transitions in medical education are emotionally and socially dynamic; this may affect learning. Students transitioning from preclinical to clinical training may experience negative consequences. Less is understood about students’ experiences during transitions within clinical training and influential factors. Methods The authors used organizational socialization theory to explore a transition within the clinical years. Final-year medical students experienced a nine-week internal medicine clerkship; willing students participated. Students ( n  = 101; 97 %) completed a questionnaire with open-ended questions at the beginning and end of the clerkship and participated in six consecutive focus groups, until data saturation occurred ( n  = 37). Data were thematically analyzed. Results Socialization was challenging. Many students experienced difficulty developing relationships with team members. Students with a positive attitude experienced a smoother transition. Many students were uncertain of their roles, concerned about the workload and desired guidance to meet clerkship demands. This transition resulted in varied outcomes from enjoyment, increased confidence and student development through to disinterest. Conclusion Transitions within clinical training are complex. Faculty should focus on adequate socialization in a new clerkship as this may facilitate a smoother transition. This may necessitate orientations, staff training, and formal student support. Further research is needed on the impact of these recommendations on learning and well-being.

Background Current understanding of population physical activity (PA) levels and sedentary behaviour in developing countries is limited, and based primarily on self-report. We described PA levels using objective and self-report methods in a developing country population. Methods PA was assessed in a cross-sectional, representative sample of the population of Barbados (25–54 years), using a validated questionnaire (RPAQ) and individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing monitors. The RPAQ collects information on recalled activity in 4 domains: home, work, transport, and leisure. Physical inactivity was defined according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines; sedentary lifestyle was defined as being sedentary for 8 h or more daily; PA overestimation was defined as perceiving activity to be sufficient, when classified as ‘inactive’ by objective measurement. Results According to objective estimates, 90.5 % (95 % CI: 83.3,94.7) of women and 58.9 % (48.4,68.7) of men did not accumulate sufficient activity to meet WHO minimum recommendations. Overall, 50.7 % (43.3,58.1) of the population was sedentary for 8 h or more each day, and 60.1 % (52.8,66.9) overestimated their activity levels. The prevalence of inactivity was underestimated by self-report in both genders by 28 percentage points (95 % CI: 18,38), but the accuracy of reporting differed by age group, education level, occupational grade, and overweight/obesity status. Low PA was greater in more socially privileged groups: higher educational level and higher occupational grade were both associated with less objectively measured PA and more sedentary time. Variation in domain-specific self-reported physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) by educational attainment was observed: higher education level was associated with more leisure activity and less occupational activity. Occupational PA was the main driver of PAEE for women and men according to self-report, contributing 57 % (95 % CI: 52,61). The most popular leisure activities for both genders were walking and gardening. Conclusions The use of both objective and self-report methods to assess PA and sedentary behaviour provides important complementary information to guide public health programmes. Our results emphasize the urgent need to increase PA and reduce sedentary time in this developing country population. Women and those with higher social economic position are particularly at risk from low levels of physical activity.