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BackgroundSubstance-related interactions with the criminal justice system are a potential touchpoint to identify people at risk for firearm violence. We used an agent-based model to simulate the change in firearm violence after disqualifying people from owning a firearm given prior alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanors. MethodsWe created a population of 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult New York City population.ResultsDisqualification from purchasing firearms for 5 years after an alcohol-related misdemeanor conviction reduced population-level rates of firearm homicide by 1.0% [95% CI 0.4–1.6%] and suicide by 3.0% [95% CI 1.9–4.0%]. Disqualification based on a drug-related misdemeanor conviction reduced homicide by 1.6% [95% CI 1.1–2.2%] and suicide by 4.6% [95% CI 3.4–5.8%]. Reductions were generally 2 to 8 times larger for agents meeting the disqualification criteria.ConclusionsDenying firearm access based on a history of drug and alcohol misdemeanors may reduce firearm violence among the high-risk group. Enactment of substance use-related firearms denial criteria needs to be balanced against concerns about introducing new sources of disenfranchisement among already vulnerable populations.

Abstract The opioid overdose crisis is driven by an intersecting set of social, structural, and economic forces. Simulation models are a tool to help us understand and address thiscomplex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on simulation models of opioid use and overdose up to September 2019. We extracted modeling types, target populations, interventions, and findings; created a database of model parameters used for model calibration; and evaluated study transparency and reproducibility. Of the 1,398 articles screened, we identified 88 eligible articles. The most frequent types of models were compartmental (36%), Markov (20%), system dynamics (16%), and agent-based models (16%). Intervention cost-effectiveness was evaluated in 40% of the studies, and 39% focused on services for people with opioid use disorder (OUD). In 61% of the eligible articles, authors discussed calibrating their models to empirical data, and in 31%, validation approaches used in the modeling process were discussed. From the 63 studies that provided model parameters, we extracted the data sources on opioid use, OUD, OUD treatment, cessation or relapse, emergency medical services, and death parameters. From this database, potential model inputs can be identified and models can be compared with prior work. Simulation models should be used to tackle key methodological challenges, including the potential for bias in the choice of parameter inputs, investment in model calibration and validation, and transparency in the assumptions and mechanics of simulation models to facilitate reproducibility.

Purpose Mental health disparities between sexual minorities and heterosexuals remain inadequately understood, especially across levels of educational attainment. The purpose of the present study was to test whether education modifies the association between sexual orientation and mental disorder. Methods We compared the odds of past 12-month and lifetime psychiatric disorder prevalence (any Axis-I, any mood, any anxiety, any substance use, and comorbidity) between lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) and heterosexual individuals by educational attainment (those with and without a bachelor’s degree), adjusting for covariates, and tested for interaction between sexual orientation and educational attainment. Data are drawn from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, a nationally representative survey of non-institutionalized US adults ( N  = 34,653; 577 LGB). Results Sexual orientation disparities in mental health are smaller among those with a college education. Specifically, the disparity in those with versus those without a bachelor’s degree was attenuated by 100 % for any current mood disorder, 82 % for any current Axis-I disorder, 76 % for any current anxiety disorder, and 67 % for both any current substance use disorder and any current comorbidity. Further, the interaction between sexual orientation and education was statistically significant for any current Axis-I disorder, any current mood disorder, and any current anxiety disorder. Our findings for lifetime outcomes were similar. Conclusions The attenuated mental health disparity at higher education levels underscores the particular risk for disorder among LGBs with less education. Future studies should consider selection versus causal factors to explain the attenuated disparity we found at higher education levels.

Neurosurgical evacuation in elderly trauma patients is controversial. We analyzed impact of craniotomy for acute subdural hematoma on survival in octogenarians and nonagenarians. Methods The study population included all patients aged ≥ 80 years who presented with acute traumatic SDHs 09/01/15 – 01/01/20, with radiography indicating operative eligibility (i.e. MLS >5 mm and/or overall thickness >10 mm). Of 1054 TBIs aged ≥ 80 years, 104 (9.87%) were surgically indicated. Of these, 35 received craniotomy and 69 received supportive measures due to family/patient wishes or surgeon’s professional decision. We analyzed these data using a Poisson regression adjusted for influence of covariates. Of 35 craniotomies, 21 (60.00%) were deceased at 2 years of follow-up, compared to 48 (69.57%) deceased of 69 non-surgical patients. No significant demographic differences existed between these groups, other than age (craniotomy patients were younger; median age 84 vs 86; p < 0.001). In outcomes, the craniotomy cohort survived longer and in higher proportions (p = 0.028; Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon). When adjusting for covariates, this effect became more pronounced: craniotomy patients died at 41.1% the rate of non-surgical ones. Of all the covariates, only initial GCS significantly impacted the protective effect of craniotomy. In a logarithmic relationship, each point on initial GCS was associated with less benefit from surgery. We also found that patients with GCS< 3 were overall less likely to benefit from surgery. Our conclusions are limited by the impact of patient/surgeon choice on whether or not to operate. It is possible healthier subjects elected for craniotomies. We have attempted to correct for this by including comorbidities as covariates in our regression analyses. Our results indicate a surgical benefit for this elderly cohort, consistent with prior findings of benefit in the setting of severe traumatic aSDH. Patients with worse neurologic impairment, i.e. low GCS, had the greatest survival benefit from surgical intervention. •In 80 + year olds who suffered acute Subdural Hematomas, craniotomy is protective.•The survival advantage is greater in those who have a lower GCS on first exam.•In patients with first GCS of 14 + , the smaller benefit may not justify the risk.•We adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities in our analyses.

BACKGROUND:Despite the temporal increase in cesarean deliveries, the extent to which maternal age, period, and maternal birth cohorts may have contributed to these trends remains unknown. METHODS:We performed an analysis of 123 million singleton deliveries in the US (1979-2010). We estimated rate ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for primary and repeat cesarean deliveries. We examined changes in cesarean rates with weighted Poisson regression models across three time-scalesmaternal age, year of delivery, and birth cohort (motherʼs birth year). RESULTS:The primary cesarean rate increased by 68% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67%, 69%) between 1979 (11.0%) and 2010 (18.5%). Repeat cesarean deliveries increased by 178% (95% CI 176, 179) from 5.2% in 1979 to 14.4% in 2010. Cesarean rates increased with advancing age. Compared to 1979, the RR for the period effect in primary and repeat cesarean deliveries increased up to 1990 fell to a nadir at 1993 and began to rise thereafter. A small birth cohort effect was evident, with women born prior to 1950 at increased risk of primary cesarean; no cohort effect was seen for repeat cesarean deliveries. Adjustment for maternal BMI had a small effect on these findings. Period effects in primary cesarean were explained by a combination of trends in obesity and chronic hypertension as well as demographic shifts over time. CONCLUSIONS:Maternal age and period appear to have important contributions to the temporal increase in the cesarean rates, although the effect of parity on these associations remains undetermined.