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This paper discusses the relationships between the “measured” cognitive ability of participants and their behavior as observed during laboratory experiments. Based on such relationships, macroeconomic implications of micro-level “boundedly rational” individual behavior will be discussed. The paper also addresses potential problems that arise when insufficient attention is paid to large differences in the measured cognitive ability of participants across several experimental laboratories, influencing the replicability of existing experimental results but also the interpretation of results from cross-country experimental analyses, and proposes to complement participants’ database with individual characteristics.

Voluntary participation is a central yet understudied aspect of collaboration. Here, we model collaboration as people’s voluntary choices between joining an uncertain public goods provisioning in groups and pursuing a less profitable but certain individual option. First, we find that voluntariness in collaboration increases the likelihood of group success via two pathways, both contributing to form more optimistic groups: pessimistic defectors are filtered out from groups, and some individuals update their beliefs to become cooperative. Second, we reconcile these findings with existing literature that highlights the detrimental effects of an individual option. We argue that the impact of an outside individual option on collaboration depends on the “externality” of loners — the influence that those leaving the group still exert on group endeavors. Theoretically and experimentally, we show that if collaboration allows for flexible group formation, the negative externality of loners remains limited, and the presence of an individual option robustly aids collaborative success. Recent research shows the existence of outside individual options may hinder group collaboration. Here, the authors show that, when group boundaries are not fixed ex-ante, they facilitate collaboration via the formation of more optimistic groups.

We address a concern about the external validity of an experiment conducted with university students related to the representativeness of the sampled population in particular. We do so by conducting large-scale (partly) incentivized online surveys of students at a Japanese university and of a sample of Japanese adults to measure individual characteristics such as cognitive ability, mentalizing skills, preferences for risk and distribution, and personality traits. While significant differences between these two samples are observed in many of these characteristics, the correlational structures among these characteristics are very similar in the two samples.

We contribute to the ongoing debate in the psychological literature on the role of thin slices of observable information in predicting others' social behavior, and its generalizability to cross-cultural interactions. We experimentally assess the degree to which subjects, drawn from culturally dierent populations (France and Japan), are able to predict strangers' trustworthiness based on a set of visual stimuli (mugshot pictures, neutral videos, loaded videos, all recorded in an additional French sample) under varying cultural distance to the target agent in the recording. Our main nding is that cultural distance is not detrimental for predicting trustworthiness in strangers, but that it may aect the perception of dierent components of communication in social interactions.

Expectations of future returns are pivotal for investors’ trading decisions, and are therefore an important determinant of the evolution of actual returns. Evidence from individual choice experiments with exogenously given time series of returns suggests that subjects’ return forecasts are substantially affected by how they are elicited and by the format in which subjects receive information about past asset performance. In order to understand the impact of these effects found at the individual level on market dynamics, we consider a learning to forecast experiment where prices and returns are endogenously determined and depend directly upon subjects’ forecasts. We vary both the variable (prices or returns) subjects observe and the variable (prices or returns) they have to forecast, with the same underlying data generating process for each treatment. Although there is no significant effect of the presentation format of past information, we do find that markets are significantly more unstable when subjects have to forecast returns instead of prices. Our results therefore show that the elicitation format may exacerbate, or even create, bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

We study the problem of cooperative behavior emerging in an environment where individual behaviors and interaction structures coevolve. Players not only learn which strategy to adopt by imitating the strategy of the best-performing player they observe, but also choose with whom they should interact by selectively creating and/or severing ties with other players based on a myopic cost-benefit comparison. We find that scalable cooperation-that is, high levels of cooperation in large populations-can be achieved in sparse networks, assuming that individuals are able to sever ties unilaterally and that new ties can only be created with the mutual consent of both parties. Detailed examination shows that there is an important trade-off between local reinforcement and global expansion in achieving cooperation in dynamic networks. As a result, networks in which ties are costly and local structure is largely absent tend to generate higher levels of cooperation than those in which ties are made easily and friends of friends interact with high probability, where the latter result contrasts strongly with the usual intuition.

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and provide examples and tentative explanations of a number of statistical questions where common sense and statistical science diverge. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

By employing binary committee choice problems, this paper investigates how varying or eliminating feedback about payoffs affects: (1) subjects’ learning about the underlying relationship between their nominal voting weights and their expected payoffs in weighted voting games; (2) the transfer of acquired learning from one committee choice problem to a similar but different problem. In the experiment, subjects choose to join one of two committees (weighted voting games) and obtain a payoff stochastically determined by a voting theory. We found that: (i) subjects learned to choose the committee that generates a higher expected payoff even without feedback about the payoffs they received; (ii) there was statistically significant evidence of “meaningful learning” (transfer of learning) only for the treatment with no payoff-related feedback. This finding calls for re-thinking existing models of learning to incorporate some type of introspection.

To what extent is the observed mispricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty and by confusion? We address this question by comparing subjects’ initial price forecasts in two market environments: one with six human traders and the other with one human and five computer traders. We find that both strategic uncertainty and confusion contribute equally to the median initial forecast deviation from the fundamental value. The effect of strategic uncertainty is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the cognitive reflection test, and it is not significant for those with low scores.