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Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease might lead to interventions that combat the tuberculosis epidemic. We aimed to assess whether global gene expression measured in whole blood of healthy people allowed identification of prospective signatures of risk of active tuberculosis disease. In this prospective cohort study, we followed up healthy, South African adolescents aged 12–18 years from the adolescent cohort study (ACS) who were infected with M tuberculosis for 2 years. We collected blood samples from study participants every 6 months and monitored the adolescents for progression to tuberculosis disease. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA sequencing data by comparing participants who developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. Participants of the independent cohorts were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Between July 6, 2005, and April 23, 2007, we enrolled 6363 participants from the ACS study and 4466 from independent South African and Gambian cohorts. 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified in the ACS cohort. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% CI 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA sequencing and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis. The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified people at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union, and the South African Medical Research Council.

Our understanding of mechanisms underlying progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in humans remains limited. To define such mechanisms, we followed M. tuberculosis-infected adolescents longitudinally. Blood samples from forty-four adolescents who ultimately developed tuberculosis disease (“progressors”) were compared with those from 106 matched controls, who remained healthy during two years of follow up. We performed longitudinal whole blood transcriptomic analyses by RNA sequencing and plasma proteome analyses using multiplexed slow off-rate modified DNA aptamers. Tuberculosis progression was associated with sequential modulation of immunological processes. Type I/II interferon signalling and complement cascade were elevated 18 months before tuberculosis disease diagnosis, while changes in myeloid inflammation, lymphoid, monocyte and neutrophil gene modules occurred more proximally to tuberculosis disease. Analysis of gene expression in purified T cells also revealed early suppression of Th17 responses in progressors, relative to M. tuberculosis-infected controls. This was confirmed in an independent adult cohort who received BCG re-vaccination; transcript expression of interferon response genes in blood prior to BCG administration was associated with suppression of IL-17 expression by BCG-specific CD4 T cells 3 weeks post-vaccination. Our findings provide a timeline to the different immunological stages of disease progression which comprise sequential inflammatory dynamics and immune alterations that precede disease manifestations and diagnosis of tuberculosis disease. These findings have important implications for developing diagnostics, vaccination and host-directed therapies for tuberculosis. Clincialtrials.gov, NCT01119521.

BCG vaccination provides incomplete protection against tuberculosis in infants. A new vaccine, modified Vaccinia Ankara virus expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), was designed to enhance the protective efficacy of BCG. We aimed to assess safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of MVA85A against tuberculosis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in infants. In our double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2b trial, we enrolled healthy infants (aged 4–6 months) without HIV infection who had previously received BCG vaccination. We randomly allocated infants (1:1), according to an independently generated sequence with block sizes of four, to receive one intradermal dose of MVA85A or an equal volume of Candida skin test antigen as placebo at a clinical facility in a rural region near Cape Town, South Africa. We actively followed up infants every 3 months for up to 37 months. The primary study outcome was safety (incidence of adverse and serious adverse events) in all vaccinated participants, but we also assessed efficacy in a protocol-defined group of participants who received at least one dose of allocated vaccine. The primary efficacy endpoint was incident tuberculosis incorporating microbiological, radiological, and clinical criteria, and the secondary efficacy endpoint was M tuberculosis infection according to QuantiFERON TB Gold In-tube conversion (Cellestis, Australia). This trial was registered with the South African National Clinical Trials Register (DOH-27-0109-2654) and with ClinicalTrials.gov on July 31, 2009, number NCT00953927 Between July 15, 2009, and May 4, 2011, we enrolled 2797 infants (1399 allocated MVA85A and 1398 allocated placebo). Median follow-up in the per-protocol population was 24·6 months (IQR 19·2–28·1), and did not differ between groups. More infants who received MVA85A than controls had at least one local adverse event (1251 [89%] of 1399 MVA85A recipients and 628 [45%] of 1396 controls who received the allocated intervention) but the numbers of infants with systemic adverse events (1120 [80%] and 1059 [76%]) or serious adverse events (257 [18%] and 258 (18%) did not differ between groups. None of the 648 serious adverse events in these 515 infants was related to MVA85A. 32 (2%) of 1399 MVA85A recipients met the primary efficacy endpoint (tuberculosis incidence of 1·15 per 100 person-years [95% CI 0·79 to 1·62]; with conversion in 178 [13%] of 1398 infants [95% CI 11·0 to 14·6]) as did 39 (3%) of 1395 controls (1·39 per 100 person-years [1·00 to 1·91]; with conversion in 171 [12%] of 1394 infants [10·6 to 14·1]). Efficacy against tuberculosis was 17·3% (95% CI −31·9 to 48·2) and against M tuberculosis infection was −3·8% (–28·1 to 15·9). MVA85A was well tolerated and induced modest cell-mediated immune responses. Reasons for the absence of MVA85A efficacy against tuberculosis or M tuberculosis infection in infants need exploration. Aeras, Wellcome Trust, and Oxford-Emergent Tuberculosis Consortium (OETC).

A nonsputum blood test capable of predicting progression of healthy individuals to active tuberculosis (TB) before clinical symptoms manifest would allow targeted treatment to curb transmission. We aimed to develop a proteomic biomarker of risk of TB progression for ultimate translation into a point-of-care diagnostic. Proteomic TB risk signatures were discovered in a longitudinal cohort of 6,363 Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected, HIV-negative South African adolescents aged 12-18 years (68% female) who participated in the Adolescent Cohort Study (ACS) between July 6, 2005 and April 23, 2007, through either active (every 6 months) or passive follow-up over 2 years. Forty-six individuals developed microbiologically confirmed TB disease within 2 years of follow-up and were selected as progressors; 106 nonprogressors, who remained healthy, were matched to progressors. Over 3,000 human proteins were quantified in plasma with a highly multiplexed proteomic assay (SOMAscan). Three hundred sixty-one proteins of differential abundance between progressors and nonprogressors were identified. A 5-protein signature, TB Risk Model 5 (TRM5), was discovered in the ACS training set and verified by blind prediction in the ACS test set. Poor performance on samples 13-24 months before TB diagnosis motivated discovery of a second 3-protein signature, 3-protein pair-ratio (3PR) developed using an orthogonal strategy on the full ACS subcohort. Prognostic performance of both signatures was validated in an independent cohort of 1,948 HIV-negative household TB contacts from The Gambia (aged 15-60 years, 66% female), longitudinally followed up for 2 years between March 5, 2007 and October 21, 2010, sampled at baseline, month 6, and month 18. Amongst these contacts, 34 individuals progressed to microbiologically confirmed TB disease and were included as progressors, and 115 nonprogressors were included as controls. Prognostic performance of the TRM5 signature in the ACS training set was excellent within 6 months of TB diagnosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.99]) and 6-12 months (AUC 0.76 [0.65-0.87]) before TB diagnosis. TRM5 validated with an AUC of 0.66 (0.56-0.75) within 1 year of TB diagnosis in the Gambian validation cohort. The 3PR signature yielded an AUC of 0.89 (0.84-0.95) within 6 months of TB diagnosis and 0.72 (0.64-0.81) 7-12 months before TB diagnosis in the entire South African discovery cohort and validated with an AUC of 0.65 (0.55-0.75) within 1 year of TB diagnosis in the Gambian validation cohort. Signature validation may have been limited by a systematic shift in signal magnitudes generated by differences between the validation assay when compared to the discovery assay. Further validation, especially in cohorts from non-African countries, is necessary to determine how generalizable signature performance is. Both proteomic TB risk signatures predicted progression to incident TB within a year of diagnosis. To our knowledge, these are the first validated prognostic proteomic signatures. Neither meet the minimum criteria as defined in the WHO Target Product Profile for a progression test. More work is required to develop such a test for practical identification of individuals for investigation of incipient, subclinical, or active TB disease for appropriate treatment and care.

We performed a quantitative analysis of the HLA restriction, antigen and epitope specificity of human pathogen specific responses in healthy individuals infected with M. tuberculosis (Mtb), in a South African cohort as a test case. The results estimate the breadth of T cell responses for the first time in the context of an infection and human population setting. We determined the epitope repertoire of eleven representative Mtb antigens and a large panel of previously defined Mtb epitopes. We estimated that our analytic methods detected 50-75% of the total response in a cohort of 63 individuals. As expected, responses were highly heterogeneous, with responses to a total of 125 epitopes detected. The 66 top epitopes provided 80% coverage of the responses identified in our study. Using a panel of 48 HLA class II-transfected antigen-presenting cells, we determined HLA class II restrictions for 278 epitope/donor recognition events (36% of the total). The majority of epitopes were restricted by multiple HLA alleles, and 380 different epitope/HLA combinations comprised less than 30% of the estimated Mtb-specific response. Our results underline the complexity of human T cell responses at a population level. Efforts to capture and characterize this broad and highly HLA promiscuous Mtb-specific T cell epitope repertoire will require significant peptide multiplexing efforts. We show that a comprehensive \"megapool\" of Mtb peptides captured a large fraction of the Mtb-specific T cells and can be used to characterize this response.

Abstract Rationale Global tuberculosis (TB) control requires effective vaccines in TB-endemic countries, where most adults are infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb). Objectives We sought to define optimal dose and schedule of H56:IC31, an experimental TB vaccine comprising Ag85B, ESAT-6, and Rv2660c, for M.tb-infected and M.tb-uninfected adults. Methods We enrolled 98 healthy, HIV-uninfected, bacillus Calmette-Guérin–vaccinated, South African adults. M.tb infection was defined by QuantiFERON-TB (QFT) assay. QFT-negative participants received two vaccinations of different concentrations of H56 in 500 nmol of IC31 to enable dose selection for further vaccine development. Subsequently, QFT-positive and QFT-negative participants were randomized to receive two or three vaccinations to compare potential schedules. Participants were followed for safety and immunogenicity for 292 days. Measurements and Main Results H56:IC31 showed acceptable reactogenicity profiles irrespective of dose, number of vaccinations, or M.tb infection. No vaccine-related severe or serious adverse events were observed. The three H56 concentrations tested induced equivalent frequencies and functional profiles of antigen-specific CD4 T cells. ESAT-6 was only immunogenic in QFT-negative participants who received three vaccinations. Conclusions Two or three H56:IC31 vaccinations at the lowest dose induced durable antigen-specific CD4 T-cell responses with acceptable safety and tolerability profiles in M.tb-infected and M.tb-uninfected adults. Additional studies should validate applicability of vaccine doses and regimens to both QFT-positive and QFT-negative individuals. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01865487).

This study was conducted in a high tuberculosis (TB) burden area in Worcester, South Africa, with a notified all TB incidence rate of 1,400/100,000. To compare the predictive value of a baseline tuberculin skin test (TST) with that of the QuantiFERON TB Gold (In-tube) assay (QFT) for subsequent microbiologically confirmed TB disease among adolescents. Adolescents aged 12-18 years were recruited from high schools in the study area. At baseline, blood was drawn for QFT and a TST administered. Participants were followed up for up to 3.8 years for incident TB disease (median 2.4 years). After exclusions, 5244 (82.4%) of 6,363 adolescents enrolled, were analysed. The TB incidence rate was 0.60 cases per 100 person years (pyrs) (95% CI 0.43-0.82) for baseline TST positive (≥ 5 mm) participants and 0.64 cases per 100 pyrs (95% CI 0.45-0.87) for baseline QFT positive participants. TB incidence rates were 0.22 per 100 pyrs (0.11-0.39) and 0.22 per 100 pyrs (0.12-0.38) among those with a negative baseline TST and QFT respectively. Sensitivity for incident TB disease was 76.9% for TST and 75.0% for QFT (p = 0.81). Positive predictive value was 1.4% for TST and 1.5% for QFT. Positive TST and QFT tests were moderately sensitive predictors of progression to microbiologically confirmed TB disease. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of these tests for TB disease amongst adolescents in this high burden setting. Therefore, these findings do not support use of QFT in preference to TST to predict the risk of TB disease in this study population.

Persistent antigen stimulation in chronic infections has been associated with antigen-specific T cell dysfunction and upregulation of inhibitory receptors, including programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1). Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease is characterized by high levels of (Mtb), yet the relationship between bacterial load, PD-1 expression, and Mtb-specific T cell function in human TB has not been well-defined. Using peripheral blood samples from adults with LTBI and with pulmonary TB disease, we tested the hypothesis that PD-1 expression is associated with bacterial load and functional capacity of Mtb-specific T cell responses. We found that PD-1 was expressed at significantly higher levels on Th1 cytokine-producing Mtb-specific CD4 T cells from patients with smear-positive TB, compared with smear-negative TB and LTBI, which decreased after completion of anti-TB treatment. By contrast, expression of PD-1 on Mtb-specific CD8 T cells was significantly lower than on Mtb-specific CD4 T cells and did not differ by Mtb infection and disease status. stimulation of PBMC with Mtb antigens demonstrated that PD-1 is induced on proliferating Mtb-specific CD4 T cells and that Th1 cytokine production capacity is preferentially maintained within PD-1 proliferating CD4 T cells, compared with proliferating Mtb-specific CD4 T cells that lack PD-1 expression. Together, these data indicate that expression of PD-1 on Mtb-specific CD4 T cells is indicative of mycobacterial antigen exposure and identifies a population of effector cells with Th1 cytokine production capacity. These studies provide novel insights into the role of the PD-1 pathway in regulating CD4 and CD8 T cell responses in Mtb infection and provide rationale for future studies to evaluate PD-1 expression on antigen-specific CD4 T cells as a potential biomarker for bacterial load and treatment response in human TB.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assesses the perceived impact of health status across life domains. Although research has explored the relationship between specific conditions, including HIV, and HRQoL in low-resource settings, less attention has been paid to the association between multimorbidity and HRQoL. In a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the Vukuzazi (“Wake up and know ourselves” in isiZulu) study, which identified the prevalence and overlap of non-communicable and infectious diseases in the uMkhanyakunde district of KwaZulu-Natal, we (1) evaluated the impact of multimorbidity on HRQoL; (2) determined the relative associations among infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and HRQoL; and (3) examined the effects of controlled versus non-controlled disease on HRQoL. HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-3L, which assesses overall perceived health, five specific domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression), and three levels of problems (no problems, some problems, and extreme problems). Six diseases and disease states were included in this analysis: HIV, diabetes, stroke, heart attack, high blood pressure, and TB. After examining the degree to which number of conditions affects HRQoL, we estimated the effect of joint associations among combinations of diseases, each HRQoL domain, and overall health. Then, in one set of ridge regression models, we assessed the relative impact of HIV, diabetes, stroke, heart attack, high blood pressure, and tuberculosis on the HRQoL domains; in a second set of models, the contribution of treatment (controlled vs. uncontrolled disease) was added. A total of 14,008 individuals were included in this analysis. Having more conditions adversely affected perceived health (r = -0.060, p<0.001, 95% CI: -0.073 to -0.046) and all HRQoL domains. Infectious conditions were related to better perceived health (r = 0.051, p<0.001, 95% CI: 0.037 to 0.064) and better HRQoL, whereas non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were associated with worse perceived health (r = -0.124, p<0.001, -95% CI: 0.137 to -0.110) and lower HRQoL. Particular combinations of NCDs were detrimental to perceived health, whereas HIV, which was characterized by access to care and suppressed viral load in the large majority of those affected, was counterintuitively associated with better perceived health. With respect to disease control, unique combinations of uncontrolled NCDs were significantly related to worse perceived health, and controlled HIV was associated with better perceived health. The presence of controlled and uncontrolled NCDs was associated with poor perceived health and worse HRQoL, whereas the presence of controlled HIV was associated with improved HRQoL. HIV disease control may be critical for HRQoL among people with HIV, and incorporating NCD prevention and attention to multimorbidity into healthcare strategies may improve HRQoL.

Vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) should provide long-term protective immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb). The current TB vaccine, Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), protects against disseminated childhood TB, but protection against lung TB in adolescents and adults is variable and mostly poor. One potential reason for the limited durability of protection may be waning of immunity through gradual attrition of BCG-induced T cells. We determined if a MVA85A viral-vector boost could enhance the durability of mycobacteria-specific T cell responses above those induced by BCG alone. We describe a long-term follow-up study of persons previously vaccinated with MVA85A. We performed a medical history and clinical examination, a tuberculin skin test and measured vaccine-specific T cell responses in persons previously enrolled as adults, adolescents, children or infants into three different Phase II trials, between 2005 and 2011. Of 252 potential participants, 183 (72.6%) consented and completed the study visit. Vaccine-induced Ag85A-specific CD4+ T cell responses were remarkably persistent in healthy, HIV-uninfected adults, adolescents, children and infants, up to 6 years after MVA85A vaccination. Specific CD4+ T cells expressed surface markers consistent with either CD45RA-CCR7+ central memory or CD45RA-CCR7- effector memory T cells. Similarly durable Ag85A-specific CD4+ T cell responses were detected in HIV-infected persons who were on successful antiretroviral therapy when MVA85A was administered. By contrast, Ag85A-specific CD4+ T cell frequencies in untreated MVA85A-vaccinated HIV-infected persons were mostly undetectable 3-5 years after vaccination. MVA85A induces remarkably durable T cell responses in immunocompetent persons. However, results from a recent phase IIb trial of MVA85A, conducted in infants from the same geographic area and study population, showed no vaccine efficacy, suggesting that these durable T cell responses do not enhance BCG-induced protection against TB in infants.