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Ebullitive methane (CH4) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river‐lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water‐level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km2 and non‐hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir‐wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two‐fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non‐linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full‐pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area. Plain Language Summary Reservoirs can emit methane through several pathways, including bubbling from sediments which occurs most often in shallow zones. Different methods for estimating the area of this zone and disagreements in waterbody data sets results in uncertainty for large‐scale estimates of waterbody characteristics and methane emissions. Water detection algorithms applied to historical satellite imagery show that smaller reservoirs and those used for non‐hydroelectric purposes tend to have the highest variability in relative surface area. The high seasonal variability in both surface area and measured methane emissions, which contributes to uncertainty in the overall reservoir GHG footprint, is illustrated using data collected from Douglas Reservoir, in East Tennessee, USA. Key Points Estimates of total surface area and littoral area of US reservoirs vary three‐to four‐fold depending on the source of data and depth threshold used to delineate littoral area Relative to their maximum extent, the area of larger and hydroelectric reservoirs fluctuates less than small and nonhydroelectric reservoirs; interannual and seasonal recurrence of water is also more consistent in large reservoirs Estimates of reservoir GHG emissions based on field‐measured methane and carbon dioxide should account for fluctuations in lake levels and surface area

The United States hydropower fleet has faced increasing environmental and regulatory pressures over the last half century, potentially constraining total generation. Here we show that annual capacity factor has declined at four fifths of United States hydropower plants since 1980, with two thirds of decreasing trends significant at p < 0.05. Results are based on an analysis of annual energy generation totals and nameplate capacities for 610 plants (>5 megawatt), representing 87% of total conventional hydropower capacity in the United States. On aggregate, changes in capacity factor imply a fleetwide, cumulative generation decrease of 23% since 1980 before factoring in capacity upgrades—akin to retiring a Hoover Dam once every two to three years. Changes in water availability explain energy decline in only 21% of plants, highlighting the importance of non-climatic drivers of generation, including deterioration of plant equipment as well as changes to dam operations in support of nonpower objectives. The US hydropower fleet has faced environmental and regulatory changes that could have eroded generation over decades. Turner et al. (2024) analyze 43 years of plant output, revealing long-term decline in capacity factor at 80% of plants.

This study demonstrates a number of methods for using field sampling and observed lake characteristics and patterns to improve techniques for development of algae remote sensing models and applications. As satellite and airborne sensors improve and their data are more readily available, applications of models to estimate water quality via remote sensing are becoming more practical for local water quality monitoring, particularly of surface algal conditions. Despite the increasing number of applications, there are significant concerns associated with remote sensing model development and application, several of which are addressed in this study. These concerns include: (1) selecting sensors which are suitable for the spatial and temporal variability in the water body; (2) determining appropriate uses of near-coincident data in empirical model calibration; and (3) recognizing potential limitations of remote sensing measurements which are biased toward surface and near-surface conditions. We address these issues in three lakes in the Great Salt Lake surface water system (namely the Great Salt Lake, Farmington Bay, and Utah Lake) through sampling at scales that are representative of commonly used sensors, repeated sampling, and sampling at both near-surface depths and throughout the water column. The variability across distances representative of the spatial resolutions of Landsat, SENTINEL-2 and MODIS sensors suggests that these sensors are appropriate for this lake system. We also use observed temporal variability in the system to evaluate sensors. These relationships proved to be complex, and observed temporal variability indicates the revisit time of Landsat may be problematic for detecting short events in some lakes, while it may be sufficient for other areas of the system with lower short-term variability. Temporal variability patterns in these lakes are also used to assess near-coincident data in empirical model development. Finally, relationships between the surface and water column conditions illustrate potential issues with near-surface remote sensing, particularly when there are events that cause mixing in the water column.

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), understanding controls on methane emissions from reservoirs is an important goal. Yet, reservoirs are complex ecosystems, and mechanisms by which reservoir operations influence methane emissions are poorly understood. In part, this is because emissions occur in ‘hot spots’ and ‘hot moments’. In this study, we address three research questions, ‘What are the causal pathways through which reservoir operations and resulting water level fluctuations (WLF) influence methane emissions?’; ‘How do influences from WLF differ for seasonal drawdown and diurnal hydropeaking operations?’; and ‘How does understanding causal pathways inform practical options for mitigation?’. A graphical conceptual model is presented that links WLF in reservoirs to methane emissions via four causal pathways: (1) water-column mixing (2) drying–rewetting cycles, (3) sediment delivery and redistribution, and (4) littoral vegetation. We review what is known about linkages for WLF at seasonal and diurnal resolutions generate research questions, and hypothesize strategies for moderating methane emissions by interrupting each causal pathway. Those related to flow management involve basin-scale management of tributary flows, seasonal timing of hydropeaking (pathway #1), timing and rates of drawdown (pathway #2). In addition, we describe how sediment (pathway #3) and vegetation management (pathway #4) could interrupt linkages between WLF and emissions. We demonstrate the strength of conceptual modeling as a tool for generating plausible hypotheses and suggesting mitigation strategies. Future research is needed to develop simpler models at appropriate timescales that can be validated and used to manage flow releases from reservoirs.

First published in 2022, the RectifHyd dataset provides hydrologically consistent estimates of monthly net generation for approximately 1,500 hydropower plants in the United States, addressing a gap in industrial surveys that have collected monthly generation data from only ~10% of plants post-2003. Here we present RectifHydPlus—an extended and enhanced dataset that improves on both the proxy information and temporal downscaling methodology adopted in RectifHyd. In addition to providing updated estimates of historical monthly generation for 590 plants with >10 MW nameplate capacity from 1980 through 2019, RectifHydPlus adds a hydrological control dataset that isolates the influence of historical water availability on generation. The new hydrological control dataset is suited to applications seeking to represent the capabilities of the contemporary fleet subject to historical interannual variability in climate. RectifHydPlus also includes a forty-year, daily-resolution, spill-adjusted water release time series for each dam, allowing users to aggregate generation estimates to the desired temporal resolution.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from reservoirs have most often been evaluated on a global extent through areal scaling or linear-regression models. These models typically rely on a limited number of characteristics such as age, size, and average temperature to estimate per reservoir or areal flux. Such approaches may not be sufficient for describing conditions at all types of reservoirs. Emissions from hydropower reservoirs have received increasing attention as industry and policy makers seek to better understand the role of hydropower in sustainable energy solutions. In the United States (US), hydropower reservoirs span a wide range of climate regions and have diverse design and operational characteristics compared to those most heavily represented in model literature (i.e., large, tropical reservoirs). It is not clear whether estimates based on measurements and modeling of other subsets of reservoirs describe the diverse types of hydropower reservoirs in the US. We applied the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (G‐res) emissions model to 28 hydropower reservoirs located in a variety of ecological, hydrological, and climate settings that represent the range of sizes and types of facilities within the US hydropower fleet. The dominant pathways for resulting GHG emissions estimates in the case-study reservoirs were diffusion of carbon dioxide, followed by methane ebullition. Among these case-study reservoirs, total post-impoundment areal flux of carbon ranges from 84 to 767 mgCm −2 d −1 , which is less variable than what has been reported through measurements at other US and global reservoirs. The net GHG reservoir footprint was less variable and towards the lower end of the range observed from modeling larger global reservoirs, with a range of 138 to 1,052 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 , while the global study reported a range of 115 to 145,472 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 . High variation in emissions normalized with respect to area and generation highlights the need to be cautious when using area or generation in predicting or communicating emissions footprints for reservoirs relative to those of other energy sources, especially given that many of the hydropower reservoirs in the US serve multiple purposes beyond power generation.

Sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management depends on quantifying the impacts of supply and demand dynamics on system infrastructure reliability and vulnerability. Systems modeling can replicate the interactions but extensive parameterization, high complexity, and long development cycles present barriers to widespread adoption. To address these challenges, we develop the Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) – a novel application of data-driven modeling for MWS management. We apply the ML-WSM framework to the Salt Lake City, Utah water system, where we benchmark prediction performance on the seasonal response of reservoir levels, groundwater withdrawal, and imported water requests to climate anomalies at a daily resolution against an existing systems model. The ML-WSM accurately predicts the seasonal dynamics of all components; especially during supply-limiting conditions (KGE > 0.88, PBias < ±3%). Extreme wet conditions challenged model skill but the ML-WSM communicated the appropriate seasonal trends and relationships to component thresholds (e.g., reservoir dead pool). The model correctly classified nearly all instances of vulnerability (83%) and peak severity (100%), encouraging its use as a guidance tool that complements systems models for evaluating the influences of climate on MWS performance.

Spectral images from remote sensing platforms are extensively used to estimate chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations for water quality studies. Empirical models used for estimation are often based on physical principles related to light absorption and emission properties of chl-a and generally relying on spectral bands in the green, blue, and near-infrared bands. Because the physical characteristics, constituents, and algae populations vary widely from lake to lake, it can be difficult to estimate coefficients for these models. Many studies select a model form that is a function of these bands, determine model coefficients by correlating remotely-measured surface reflectance data and coincidentally measured in-situ chl-a concentrations, and then apply the model to estimate chl-a concentrations for the entire water body. Recent work has demonstrated an alternative approach using simple statistical learning methods (Multiple Linear Stepwise Regression (MLSR)) which uses historical, non-coincident field data to develop sub-seasonal remote sensing chl-a models. We extend this previous work by comparing this method against models from literature, and explore model performance for a region of lakes in Central Utah with varying optical complexity, including two relatively clear intermountain reservoirs (Deer Creek and Jordanelle) and a highly turbid, shallow lake (Utah Lake). This study evaluates the suitability of these different methods for model parameterization for this area and whether a sub-seasonal approach improves performance of standard model forms from literature. We found that while some of the common spectral bands used in literature are selected by the data-driven MLSR method for the lakes in the study region, there are also other spectral bands and band interactions that are often more significant for these lakes. Comparison of model fit shows an improvement in model fit using the data-driven parameterization method over the more traditional physics-based modeling approaches from literature. This suggests that the sub-seasonal approach and exploitation of information contained in other bands helps account for lake-specific optical characteristics, such as suspended solids and other constituents contributing to water color, as well as unique (and season-specific) algae populations, which contribute to the spectral signature of the lake surface, rather than only relying on a generalized optical signature of chl-a. Consideration of these other bands is important for development of models for long-term and entire growing season applications in optically diverse water bodies.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from reservoirs have most often been evaluated on a global extent through areal scaling or linear-regression models. These models typically rely on a limited number of characteristics such as age, size, and average temperature to estimate per reservoir or areal flux. Such approaches may not be sufficient for describing conditions at all types of reservoirs. Emissions from hydropower reservoirs have received increasing attention as industry and policy makers seek to better understand the role of hydropower in sustainable energy solutions. In the United States (US), hydropower reservoirs span a wide range of climate regions and have diverse design and operational characteristics compared to those most heavily represented in model literature (i.e., large, tropical reservoirs). It is not clear whether estimates based on measurements and modeling of other subsets of reservoirs describe the diverse types of hydropower reservoirs in the US. We applied the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (G-res) emissions model to 28 hydropower reservoirs located in a variety of ecological, hydrological, and climate settings that represent the range of sizes and types of facilities within the US hydropower fleet. The dominant pathways for resulting GHG emissions estimates in the case-study reservoirs were diffusion of carbon dioxide, followed by methane ebullition. Among these case-study reservoirs, total post-impoundment areal flux of carbon ranges from 84 to 767 mgCm–2d–1, which is less variable than what has been reported through measurements at other US and global reservoirs. The net GHG reservoir footprint was less variable and towards the lower end of the range observed from modeling larger global reservoirs, with a range of 138 to 1,052 g CO2 eq m–2 y–1, while the global study reported a range of 115 to 145,472 g CO2 eq m–2 y–1. High variation in emissions normalized with respect to area and generation highlights the need to be cautious when using area or generation in predicting or communicating emissions footprints for reservoirs relative to those of other energy sources, especially given that many of the hydropower reservoirs in the US serve multiple purposes beyond power generation.

Various processes and factors contribute to the occurrence, timing, magnitude, and extent of algal blooms in the Great Salt Lake (GSL) system (including the Great Salt Lake, Farmington Bay, and Utah Lake). While this system is recognized for its role in local and global ecosystems, recreation, and industry, the practices of monitoring, assessing, and planning for changing water quality conditions are severely limited in their ability to describe relationships between the many contributing factors and algal bloom conditions. The aim of this work is to use traditional field sampling and remotely sensed records to explore patterns and trends and identify some of the key factors that influence or contribute to algal bloom conditions in the lakes of the GSL system. Factors explored in this study include local weather, seasonal climate, and hydrologic variables, which have particular relevance to the nearby developing urban area that is experiencing uncertain and changing climate conditions. The study is divided into three distinct bodies, which enables a more complete examination of historical algal bloom patterns, the processes that influence them, and uses this information to guide monitoring and management practices in the future. This research brings together a wide breadth of data types and sources to gain a more holistic view of the complex lake system. The three major objectives of this dissertation are to: 1) evaluate historical patterns and trends using remotely sensed estimates of algal biomass; 2) describe the complex relationships between climate and hydrologic variables and algal blooms through a data-driven modeling and analysis approach; 3) use these relationships to develop a decision support framework that can be used to forecast conditions within the lake system. Primary impacts of this work include an improved understanding of historical water quality conditions, context for evaluating ongoing conditions, knowledge of how external factors contribute to and influence these conditions, and tools for better planning and monitoring practices in the future.