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We tested the hypothesis that six toxic risk factors from the TIGAR-O classification system are equally important for risk of chronic pancreatitis, at the level of the individual patient and in the general population. 108,438 women and men aged 20–100 years participating in the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2003 to 2015 were included. Associations of smoking, alcohol intake, waist/hip ratio, kidney function, plasma triglycerides, plasma Ca 2+ , and diseases within the causal pathway with risk of chronic pancreatitis, and corresponding population attributable risks were estimated. Information on chronic pancreatitis was from national Danish health registries. During median 9 years (range: 0–15) of follow-up, 313 individuals had a first diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis; the incidence of chronic pancreatitis per 10,000 person-years were 3.1 overall, 2.8 in women, and 3.5 in men. Of the six toxic risk factors and relative to individuals with low values, individuals in the top 5% had hazard ratios for chronic pancreatitis of 3.1(95% CI 2.1–4.5) for pack-years smoked, 2.5(1.5–4.0) for alcohol intake, and 1.6(1.1–2.6) for plasma triglycerides. Corresponding values versus those without the baseline disease were 12.6 (7.9–20.2) for acute pancreatitis, 1.9 (1.2–2.8) for gallstone disease, and 1.9 (1.3–2.7) for diabetes mellitus. The highest population attributable fractions were for women (1) ever smoking (31%), (2) gallstone disease (5%), and (3) diabetes mellitus (4%), and for men (1) ever smoking (38%), (2) acute pancreatitis (7%)/high alcohol intake (7%), and (3) high plasma triglycerides (5%). Smoking is the most important risk factor for chronic pancreatitis in the general population.

How mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia (2-10 mmol/L; 177-886 mg/dL) potentially causes acute pancreatitis is unknown; however, cellular studies indicate that inflammation might be a driver of disease progression. We tested the hypotheses that ( ) mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia is associated with low-grade inflammation and that ( ) the association between mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia and risk of acute pancreatitis depends on low-grade inflammation. From the Copenhagen General Population Study and the Copenhagen City Heart Study, 117865 men and women 20-100+ years of age with measurements of nonfasting plasma triglycerides at baseline were followed prospectively for development of acute pancreatitis. After multivariable adjustment, a 1 mmol/L (89 mg/dL) higher nonfasting triglyceride concentration was associated with 17% (95% CI, 16%-18%, = 3 × 10 ) higher plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and a 4.2% (4.0%-4.4%, = 6 × 10 ) higher blood leukocyte count. Higher concentrations of nonfasting triglycerides were associated almost linearly with higher risk of acute pancreatitis ( for trend = 5 × 10 ), with hazard ratios of 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9-2.5), 2.0 (95% CI, 1.1-3.6), 2.2 (95% CI, 1.0-4.7), 4.2 (95% CI, 1.6-11.5), and 7.7 (95% CI, 3.0-19.8) in individuals with nonfasting triglycerides of 1.00-1.99 mmol/L (89-176 mg/dL; 46% of the population), 2.00-2.99 mmol/L (177-265 mg/dL; 17%), 3.00-3.99 mmol/L (266-353 mg/dL; 6%), 4.00-4.99 mmol/L (354-442 mg/dL; 2%), and ≥5mmol/L(443 mg/dL; 2%), respectively, vs individuals with <1 mmol/L (89 mg/dL; 27%). The association with risk of acute pancreatitis appeared more pronounced in individuals with CRP of ≥1.39 mg/L ( for trend = 0.001) and leukocytes of ≥7 × 10 /L ( = 2 × 10 ) than in those with CRP <1.39 mg/L ( = 0.03) and leukocytes <7 × 10 /L ( = 0.04); however, there was no formal evidence of statistical interaction ( = 0.38 for CRP and = 0.41 for leukocytes). Mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia is associated with low-grade inflammation and higher risk of acute pancreatitis. The association between mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia and risk of acute pancreatitis is possibly partly mediated by low-grade inflammation.

Background: The movement extent of mammals is influenced by human-modified areas, which can affect population demographics. Understanding how human infrastructure influences movement at different life stages is important for wildlife management. This is true especially for large carnivores, due to their substantial space requirements and potential for conflict with humans. Methods: We investigated human impact on movement and habitat selection by GPS-collared male brown bears (Ursus arctos) in two life stages (residents and dispersers) in central Sweden. We identified dispersers visually based on their GPS locations and used hidden Markov models to delineate dispersal events. We used integrated step selection analysis (iSSA) to infer movement and habitat selection at a local scale (availability defined by hourly relocations), and resource selection functions (RSFs) to infer habitat selection at a landscape scale (availability defined by the study area extent). Results: Movement of residents on a local scale was facilitated by small forestry roads as they moved faster and selected areas closer to forestry roads, and they avoided areas closer to larger public roads and buildings on both scales. Dispersers were more ambivalent in their response to human infrastructure. Dispersers increased their speed closer to small forestry roads and larger public roads, did not exhibit selection for or against any road class, and avoided areas closer to buildings only at local scale. Dispersers did not select for any features on the landscape, which is likely explained by the novelty of the landscape or their naivety towards it. Conclusion: Our results show that movement in male brown bears is life stage-dependent and indicate that connectivity maps derived from movement data of dispersing animals may provide more numerous and more realistic pathways than those derived from resident animal data alone. This suggests that data from dispersing animals provide more realistic models for reconnecting populations and maintaining connectivity than if data were derived from resident animals alone.

Tropical cyclones generate extreme hazards along coastlines, often leading to losses of life and property. Although coral reefs exist in cyclone‐prone regions globally, few studies have measured the hydrodynamic conditions and morphological responses of reef‐fringed coastlines to tropical cyclones. Here, we examine the impact of Tropical Cyclone Olwyn on a section of Australia's largest fringing reef (Ningaloo Reef) using in situ wave and water level observations, topographic surveys, and numerical modeling. Despite forereef significant wave heights reaching 6 m and local winds of 140 km h−1, average beach volume change was only −3 m3 m−1. The results indicate that this erosion was due to locally generated wind waves within the lagoon rather than the offshore waves that were dissipated on the reef crest. A comparison of these volume changes to observations of tropical cyclone impacts along exposed sandy beaches quantitatively demonstrates the substantial coastal protection reefs can provide against extreme storms.

Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model \"20th-century\" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

I suggest that a ‘scientific reticence’ is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue.

Four years of beach elevation surveys at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, are used to extend an existing equilibrium shoreline change model, previously calibrated with fine sand and moderate energy waves, to medium sand and higher‐energy waves. The shoreline, characterized as the cross‐shore location of the mean high water contour, varied seasonally by between 30 and 60 m, depending on the alongshore location. The equilibrium shoreline change model relates the rate of horizontal shoreline displacement to the hourly wave energy E and the wave energy disequilibrium, the difference between E and the equilibrium wave energy that would cause no change in the present shoreline location. Values for the model shoreline response coefficients are tuned to fit the observations in 500 m alongshore segments and averaged over segments where the model has good skill and the estimated effects of neglected alongshore sediment transport are relatively small. Using these representative response coefficients for 0.3 mm sand from Ocean Beach and driving the model with much lower‐energy winter waves observed at San Onofre Beach (also 0.3 mm sand) in southern California, qualitatively reproduces the small seasonal shoreline fluctuations at San Onofre. This consistency suggests that the shoreline model response coefficients depend on grain size and may be constant, and thus transportable, between sites with similar grain size and different wave climates. The calibrated model response coefficients predict that for equal fluctuations in wave energy, changes in shoreline location on a medium‐grained (0.3 mm) beach are much smaller than on a previously studied fine‐grained (0.2 mm) beach.

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole‐atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS‐E2‐R) and HYCOM (GISS‐E2‐H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5°C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low‐forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2‐R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Key Points: Global warming ranges from 1 to 4.5°C by 2100 Atlantic overturning circulation decreases by 2100 There is a collapse of the overturning in RCP8.5 in E2‐R models

Incidences of pancreatic cancer and acute and chronic pancreatitis are rising globally, and often no curative treatment is available at the time of diagnosis. We tested the hypothesis that low and high plasma concentrations of pancreatic amylase are associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer, acute pancreatitis, and chronic pancreatitis in the general population. We included 101,765 individuals (55% women) aged 20–100 years from the Copenhagen General Population Study with baseline measurements of plasma pancreatic amylase. After recruitment in 2004–2015 during a median 9 years of follow-up (range 0–15), we collected information about diagnoses of pancreatic cancer, acute pancreatitis, and chronic pancreatitis from the national Danish Patient Registry, the national Danish Cancer Registry, and the national Danish Causes of Death Registry. The median age was 58 years (interquartile range: 48–67) and the median plasma pancreatic amylase 32 U/L (26–40). During follow-up, 442 individuals were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, 282 with chronic pancreatitis, and 401 with acute pancreatitis. Compared to individuals with pancreatic amylase levels in the 41st–60th percentiles, those with extreme low (1st–2.5th percentiles) and extreme high (97.5th–100th percentiles) pancreatic amylase had hazard ratios of 2.4 (95% confidence interval; 1.6–3.6) and 2.2 (1.4–3.7) for pancreatic cancer, of 1.8 (1.1–3.3) and 3.2 (1.8–5.6) for chronic pancreatitis, and of 1.1 (0.6–1.8) and 1.5 (0.8–2.7) for acute pancreatitis, respectively. In apparently healthy individuals from the general population, extreme low and extreme high plasma pancreatic amylase were associated with 2–threefold higher risk of both pancreatic cancer and chronic pancreatitis.

The 145 year old rural case building presented in this paper has undergone a deep renovation including internal insulation of the external walls to reduce the heat loss and improve the indoor thermal comfort. The internal insulation was a PUR-based insulation with channels of calcium silicate, experiencing to some extent capillary active behaviour. Sensors were installed between the existing wall and the internal insulation to monitor the development of hygrothermal conditions. The external façade was later hydrophobized with a water repellent agent to minimize the wind driven rain load. Measurements show that it takes time to get rid of the built-in moisture due to the application of internal insulation, however the moisture content expressed in relative humidity is slowly decreasing, although still high about two years after hydrophobizing the wall. Simulations show that the order of hydrophobizing the wall and applying internal insulation is important to promote drying of the wall.