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Achieving sustainability in the Anthropocene requires radical changes to how human societies operate. The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SOGA) project has identified a diverse set of existing initiatives, called “seeds,” that have the potential to catalyze transformations toward more sustainable pathways. However, the empirical investigation of factors and conditions that enable successful sustainability transformations across multiple cases has been scarce. Building on a review of existing theoretical and empirical research, we developed a theoretical framework for assessing three features identified as important to transformative potential of innovative social-ecological initiatives: (1) learning practices, (2) empowerment, and (3) networking. We applied this framework to a set of African-led and Africa-related initiatives that we selected from the SOGA database that were divided into initiatives with more or less transformative potential. We coded the presence or absence of features relating to the theoretical framework using secondary data, and then compared the initiatives using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This analysis revealed that of the three features tested, Networking emerged as the most important feature for transformative potential when compared amongst cases. By developing and testing a framework for the comparison of cases we provide a basis for future comparative work to further identify and test properties of cases that enable transformation.

A recent paper by Diaz et al. (2018a) presented \"nature's contributions to people,\" a conceptual framework developed within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The authors wrote that it could nurture a paradigm shift from the concept of ecosystem services. The paper has sparked quick reactions including a critical editorial response in the journal Ecosystem Services (Braat 2018) and several Science eLetters responses. Diaz et al. (2018a) and the responses generally disagree on whether the paradigm shift suggested by the original contribution is justified and whether the nature's contributions to people framework represents a scientific advance that is broadly useful in contexts other than IPBES. In this contribution, we call for a recognition of pluralism and the need for a richer process of articulation, translation, and discussion among many different perspectives on people's relationship with nature.

Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being 1 , 2 , addressing the global biodiversity crisis 3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever 4 . Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) 5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals 6 , predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature 7 . Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change 8 , pandemic emergence 9 and socio-environmental injustices 10 . On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions 7 , 11 . Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures. Following a wide-ranging review of studies, reports and policies about nature’s multiple values, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation of nature, address barriers to uptake in decision-making, and make transformative changes towards more just and sustainable futures.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) relies on future scenarios in its assessments of global social-ecological systems. Scenarios explicitly or implicitly embed normative positions (e.g., values for nature, nature’s contributions to people, good quality of life). Such scenario values shape how scenario narratives evolve, e.g. through driving forces, framings, or ways how decisions are legitimized within a given scenario. Initial research in futures studies has examined how scenario values depend on whose voices are included in scenario co-design. However, less attention has been paid so far to explicitly assessing the extent to which scenario values are associated with different types of scenario co-designers. Our paper expands this knowledge with a set of novel analyses building on the comprehensive review of scenarios in the IPBES values assessment. To this end, we conducted a formal archetype analysis of 257 scenarios assessed in the IPBES values assessment to identify re-appearing archetypal configurations of values and their link to the actors involved as scenario co-designers. The results show that scenarios valuing nature for itself and its benefits to societal well-being were co-designed by experts and academics less frequently than expected under the assumption of stochastic independence; on the contrary, such scenarios were co-designed more frequently than expected by governmental and community actors. The paper illustrates how archetype analysis can contribute to the validation and further development of scientific knowledge feeding into science-policy assessments. The findings are important to acknowledge how scenarios express and possibly re-enforce peoples’ normative positions, and what role values might play when scenarios get translated into real-world decisions and actions.

Modern environmental thought has always involved normative claims about the values needed for sustainability. This has often played out in debates between proponents of anthropocentric and ecocentric ways of valuing nature. More recently, there has been a flourishing of interest in relational and pluricentric ways of valuing nature, coinciding with a “turn to values” in the sustainability literature. In this paper we explore the meaning and use of the term “sustainability-aligned values.” Following the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment we consider these as values that are crucial for shaping decisions that will help bring about sustainability. Our characterization of sustainably-aligned values assumes inherent pluralism because of diverse interpretations of sustainability and of pathways toward it. Nevertheless, a review of three bodies of literature suggests that there is considerable agreement about the kinds of values that align with sustainability. In particular, the nurturing of certain relational values is now widely seen as supportive of sustainability, including values regarding what matters in human interactions with nature (such as stewardship), and values regarding relationships between humans (such as collectivism). We proceed to pose critical questions about the proposition that certain values support sustainability. We ask whether this emerging body of thought is consistent with pluralist requirements to foster values diversity, whether an agenda to nurture values aligned with sustainability is actionable, and how mobilizing sustainability-aligned values entails addressing power imbalances.

People depend on functioning ecosystems, which provide benefits that support human existence and wellbeing. The relationship between people and nature has been experienced and conceptualized in multiple ways. Recently, ecosystem services (ES) concepts have permeated science, government policies, multi-national environmental agreements, and science–policy interfaces. In 2017, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) introduced a new and closely related concept – Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP). The introduction of NCP has sparked some lively discussion and confusion about the distinguishing characteristics between ES and NCP. In order to clarify their conceptual relation, we identify eleven specific claims about novel elements from the latest NCP literature and analyze how far ES research has already contributed to these corresponding conceptual claims in the existing ES literature. We find a mixed-picture, where on six specific conceptual claims (culture, social sciences and humanities, indigenous and local knowledge, negative contributions of nature, generalizing perspective, non-instrumental values and valuation) NCP does not differ greatly from past ES research, but we also find five conceptual claims (diverse worldviews, context-specific perspective, relational values, fuzzy and fluid reporting categories and groups, inclusive language and framing) where NCP provides novel conceptualizations of people and nature relations.

Non-technical summaryAchieving sustainability on the ground poses a challenge in decoding globally defined goals, such as sustainable development goals, and aligning them with local perspectives and realities. This decoding necessitates the understanding of the multifaceted dimensions of the sustainability challenges in a given context, including their underlying causes. In case studies from Brazilian drylands, we illustrate how an enhanced multiscale participatory method, combined with systems thinking tools, can shed light on systemic structures that currently entrench unsustainable development trajectories. This method offers insights into co-designing potential pathways toward sustainable futures and unlocking transformative capacities of the local population.Technical summaryTranslating United Nations global sustainable development goals (SDGs) into actions that address local realities and aspirations is an urgent challenge. It requires new thinking and approaches that foster the discussion about the main challenges to implementing the SDGs at multiple levels. This paper presents a novel multiscale participatory approach that combines the popular Three Horizons diagram with the formalism of causal loop diagrams in systems thinking. We present results from six multi-stakeholder dialogues held across drylands in Brazil with a focus on desired futures aligned with SDGs. Focusing on identifying the root causes and systemic structures of unsustainability, participants identified lock-ins, leverage points, and interventions for how these could be changed. The core lock-ins are the discontinuity of public policies, and the historical land and power concentration reinforced by the current expansion of large-scale agricultural, mining, and energy projects. The proposed interventions are structural and – if implemented – would contribute to achieving SDGs in an integrated manner. The unique approach developed in this study can provide leverage as it bridges the inclusivity of participatory visioning with the change potential of systems thinking tools to tackle root causes and unleash societal transformations.Social media summaryWe are not achieving SDGs. Understanding root causes of unsustainability is critical to move toward sustainable and just futures.

Projecting the distribution of population is critical in supporting analysis of the impacts and risks associated with climate change. In this paper, we apply a computational algorithm parameterised for the UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (UK-SSP) narratives to create 1-km gridded urban land use and population projections for the UK to the end of the twenty-first century. Using a unimodal neighbourhood function, we model heterogeneity in urban sprawl patterns. The urban land use maps are used as weights to create downscaled population projections. We undertake a model uncertainty analysis using 500 simulations with varying parameter settings per UK-SSP. Results illustrate how sprawl can emerge from scenario conditions even when population numbers decline, and irrespective of socio-economic wellbeing. To avoid negative environmental externalities associated with uncontrolled sprawl, such as in UK-SSP5 and UK-SSP3, planning policies will be vital. Uncertainties about future population development in the UK are higher in rural areas than in urban areas. This has an effect on the competition for land and influences confidence in projections of broader land system change.

Ecosystem services, defined as benefits provided by ecosystem functioning to society, are essential to human well-being. Due to global environmental change and related anthropogenic drivers, ecosystems are often degraded, which hinders the delivery of ecosystem services. This study aims to quantify the impacts of land use and climate change on two regulating ecosystem services-carbon sequestration and water purification in terms of nitrogen retention in the Czech Republic. While employing approaches of scenarios and modeling, we illustrate current and potential future status of these ecosystem services. Our results show that among the ecosystem change drivers, one of the dominant domestic land-use change of (Business-As-Might-Be-Usual) scenario is change of arable land and grassland to forest area that increases by 4.5% in 2080 compared to 2000. The results of ecosystem service modeling based on scenario for the years 2050 and 2080 indicate that the highest yearly carbon sequestration rate occurred in 2000-2050, reaching 640 GgC·yr −1 , 2000-2080 shows decline in this regulating service by 16%. Average nitrogen leaching to water streams reached 0.75 kgN·ha −1 ·yr −1 for in 2050 scenario and 0.80 kgN·ha −1 ·yr −1 for in 2080 scenario as a result of decreasing nitrogen load, which suggested a decrease in nitrogen pollution compared to 2000. Since ecosystem services have not been extensively mainstreamed into research and policies in eastern European countries, we aim to contribute to improvement of knowledge on current status and potential future pathways of the provision of regulating ecosystem services in the Czech Republic.