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Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Movement of individuals is a critical factor determining the effectiveness of reserve networks. Marine reserves have historically been used for the management of species that are sedentary as adults, and, therefore, larval dispersal has been a major focus of marine-reserve research. The push to use marine reserves for managing pelagic and demersal species poses significant questions regarding their utility for highly-mobile species. Here, a simple conceptual metapopulation model is developed to provide a rigorous comparison of the functioning of reserve networks for populations with different admixtures of larval dispersal and adult movement in a home range. We find that adult movement produces significantly lower persistence than larval dispersal, all other factors being equal. Furthermore, redistribution of harvest effort previously in reserves to remaining fished areas ('fishery squeeze') and fishing along reserve borders ('fishing-the-line') considerably reduce persistence and harvests for populations mobile as adults, while they only marginally changes results for populations with dispersing larvae. Our results also indicate that adult home-range movement and larval dispersal are not simply additive processes, but rather that populations possessing both modes of movement have lower persistence than equivalent populations having the same amount of 'total movement' (sum of larval and adult movement spatial scales) in either larval dispersal or adult movement alone.

Objective There is a pressing need to develop reliable molecular biomarkers in osteoarthritis. The aim of the study was to identify novel serum biomarkers for osteoarthritis using a metabolomics approach. Methods A two-stage study design was utilised. 123 knee osteoarthritis cases and 299 controls were selected from the TwinsUK cohort as a discovery sample. 76 knee osteoarthritis cases and 100 controls from the Chingford Study were used as replication. Knee osteoarthritis was defined as either radiographic, medically diagnosed or total knee joint replacement due to primary osteoarthritis. All the subjects were unrelated white women. Their serum samples were assessed for targeted metabolite profiling by electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry using the AbsoluteIDQ kit. 163 serum metabolites were assessed and their concentrations obtained. The ratios of metabolite concentrations as proxies for enzymatic reaction rates were calculated and tested for the association with knee osteoarthritis. Significance was assessed after adjustment for multiple testing (Bonferroni method) and potential confounders. Results In the discovery stage, the authors identified 14 ratios significantly associated with knee osteoarthritis with p≤1.9×10−6. Two of these 14 ratios were successfully confirmed in the replication stage—the ratios of valine to histidine and xleucine to histidine, with p=0.002. The significance remained after adjustment for age and body mass index. Conclusion This is the first serum-based metabolomic study of osteoarthritis in humans. The branched-chain amino acids to histidine ratio has potential clinical use as an osteoarthritis biomarker and shows the clinical potential of metabolomics.

Background Prior research on accelerated knee osteoarthritis (AKOA) was primarily confined to the Osteoarthritis Initiative, which was enriched with people with risk factors for knee osteoarthritis (KOA). It is unclear how often AKOA develops in a community-based cohort and whether we can replicate prior findings from the Osteoarthritis Initiative in another cohort. Hence, we determined the incidence and characteristics of AKOA among women in the Chingford Study, which is a prospective community-based cohort. Methods The Chingford Study had 1003 women with quinquennial knee radiographs over 15 years. We divided the 15-year observation period into three consecutive 5-year phases. Within each 5-year phase, we selected 3 groups of participants among women who started a phase without KOA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] < 2): 1) incident AKOA developed KL grade ≥ 3, 2) typical KOA increased radiographic scoring (excluding AKOA), and 3) no KOA had the same KL grade over time. Study staff recorded each participant’s age, body mass index (BMI), and blood pressure at baseline, 5-year, and 10-year study visits. We used multinomial logistic regression models to test the association between groups (outcome) and age, BMI, and blood pressure at the start of each phase. The cumulative incidences and odds ratios (OR) from each phase were pooled using a fixed-effect meta-analysis model. Results The person-based cumulative incidence of AKOA was 3.9% over 5 years (pooled estimate across the three 5-year phases). Among incident cases of KOA, AKOA represented ~ 15% of women with incident KOA. Women with AKOA were older than those with typical (OR = 1.56, 95%CI = 1.16–2.11) or no KOA (OR = 1.84, 95%CI = 1.40–2.43). Women with AKOA had a greater BMI than those without KOA (OR = 1.52, 95%CI = 1.17–1.97). We observed no association between group and blood pressure. Conclusions In a community-based cohort, > 1 in 7 women with incident KOA had AKOA. Like the Osteoarthritis Initiative, people with AKOA were more likely to have greater age and BMI.

An age-structured model is developed for analyzing the effects of marine reserves and other long-term closures on fishery yield, assuming larvae are well-mixed and that exchange of adults between the open and closed areas is negligible. A number of analytic results are derived, including a formula for the gradient of yield with respect to fishing mortality and closure fraction. Increasing the closure fraction at equilibrium spawning stock biomass (SSB), B, will increase yield if and only if s′(B) > 1/b 0 (0), where s′(B) is the slope of the stock–recruitment curve at B and b 0 (0) is SSB per recruit at zero fishing mortality. Conditions for the level of closure required to prevent stock collapse are also derived. Applications of the theory to canary rockfish (Sebastes pinniger) and Georges Bank sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) illustrate that long-term closures increase yield only at low SSB associated with fishing mortalities greater than F MSY and with low closure fractions. The theory presented here gives simple analytic and graphical techniques for predicting the effects of long-term closures on yield and stock persistence.

Studies suggest that inducing gut microbiota changes may alter both muscle physiology and cognitive behaviour. Gut microbiota may play a role in both anabolic resistance of older muscle, and cognition. In this placebo controlled double blinded randomised controlled trial of 36 twin pairs (72 individuals), aged ≥60, each twin pair are block randomised to receive either placebo or prebiotic daily for 12 weeks. Resistance exercise and branched chain amino acid (BCAA) supplementation is prescribed to all participants. Outcomes are physical function and cognition. The trial is carried out remotely using video visits, online questionnaires and cognitive testing, and posting of equipment and biological samples. The prebiotic supplement is well tolerated and results in a changed gut microbiome [e.g., increased relative Bifidobacterium abundance]. There is no significant difference between prebiotic and placebo for the primary outcome of chair rise time (β = 0.579; 95% CI −1.080-2.239 p = 0.494). The prebiotic improves cognition (factor score versus placebo (β = −0.482; 95% CI,−0.813, −0.141; p = 0.014)). Our results demonstrate that cheap and readily available gut microbiome interventions may improve cognition in our ageing population. We illustrate the feasibility of remotely delivered trials for older people, which could reduce under-representation of older people in clinical trials. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04309292. Here, the authors present the results of the PROMOTe trial, reporting improved cognition with prebiotic vs placebo in twins over 60 years old, probing that remote trials are feasible in older adults, and suggesting that the gut microbiota may represent a therapeutic target for age-associated morbidity.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis and a major cause of disability. This study evaluates the association in Caucasian populations of two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mapping to the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region and deriving from a genome wide association scan (GWAS) of knee OA in Japanese populations. The frequencies for rs10947262 were compared in 36,408 controls and 5,749 knee OA cases from European-descent populations. rs7775228 was tested in 32,823 controls and 1,837 knee OA cases of European descent. The risk (major) allele at rs10947262 in Caucasian samples was not significantly associated with an odds ratio (OR)  = 1.07 (95%CI 0.94 -1.21; p = 0.28). For rs7775228 the meta-analysis resulted in OR = 0.94 (95%CI 0.81-1.09; p = 0.42) for the allele associated with risk in the Japanese GWAS. In Japanese individuals these two SNPs are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) (r(2) = 0.86) with the HLA class II haplotype DRB1*1502 DQA1*0103 DQB1*0601 (frequency 8%). In Caucasian and Chinese samples, using imputed data, these SNPs appear not to be in LD with that haplotype (r(2)<0.07). The rs10947262 and rs7775228 variants are not associated with risk of knee OA in European descent populations and they do not appear tag the same HLA class II haplotype as they do in Japanese individuals.

TwinsUK is the largest cohort of community-dwelling adult twins in the UK. The registry comprises over 14,000 volunteer twins (14,838 including mixed, single and triplets); it is predominantly female (82%) and middle-aged (mean age 59). In addition, over 1800 parents and siblings of twins are registered volunteers. During the last 27 years, TwinsUK has collected numerous questionnaire responses, physical/cognitive measures and biological measures on over 8500 subjects. Data were collected alongside four comprehensive phenotyping clinical visits to the Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London. Such collection methods have resulted in very detailed longitudinal clinical, biochemical, behavioral, dietary and socioeconomic cohort characterization; it provides a multidisciplinary platform for the study of complex disease during the adult life course, including the process of healthy aging. The major strength of TwinsUK is the availability of several ‘omic’ technologies for a range of sample types from participants, which includes genomewide scans of single-nucleotide variants, next-generation sequencing, metabolomic profiles, microbiomics, exome sequencing, epigenetic markers, gene expression arrays, RNA sequencing and telomere length measures. TwinsUK facilitates and actively encourages sharing the ‘TwinsUK’ resource with the scientific community — interested researchers may request data via the TwinsUK website ( http://twinsuk.ac.uk/resources-for-researchers/access-our-data/ ) for their own use or future collaboration with the study team. In addition, further cohort data collection is planned via the Wellcome Open Research gateway ( https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/gateways ). The current article presents an up-to-date report on the application of technological advances, new study procedures in the cohort and future direction of TwinsUK.

•Different latent subgroups of 19-year body mass index (BMI) patterns exist in UK postmenopausal women.•BMI of 27-34 over 19-years was bidirectionally related to knee and multi-site pain.•BMI of 33-38 over time was unidirectionally associated with hip and knee pain.•Women with BMI>40 had increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.•Women with BMI 25-27 had no different pain or mortality risk than women with BMI<25. We aimed to study 19-year body mass index (BMI) patterns and their (1) bidirectional relationship with musculoskeletal pain and (2) mortality risk. We used data from the Chingford study and group-based trajectory modelling to define 19-year BMI patterns. We investigated whether baseline back, hand, hip, and knee pain (as single- and multi-site) predicted 19-year BMI trajectory, and whether 19-year BMI patterns predicted pain in year 20. We explored BMI trajectories and mortality risk over 25 years (life expectancy). We included 938 women (mean age: year-1=54, year-20=72) and found seven distinct 19-year BMI trajectories: two normal-weighted (reference), slightly overweight, lower and upper overweight-to-obese, lower and upper obese. BMI patterns capturing the increase overweight-to-obese (BMI 27-34 overtime) were bidirectionally related to knee and multi-site pain. The lower obese pattern (BMI 33-38) was unidirectionally associated with lower limb pain. Women with BMI above 40 had an increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk. For most postmenopausal women, the overweight WHO category was a transition. Two patterns capturing increase overweight-to-obese were mutually related to musculoskeletal pain, i.e., knee and multi-site pain contributed to becoming obese, and trajectories of becoming obese increased the odds of experiencing pain later. [Display omitted]