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Background Psychopathology research is changing focus from group-based “disease models” to a personalized approach inspired by complex systems theories. This approach, which has already produced novel and valuable insights into the complex nature of psychopathology, often relies on repeated self-ratings of individual patients. So far, it has been unknown whether such self-ratings, the presumed observables of the individual patient as a complex system, actually display complex dynamics. We examine this basic assumption of a complex systems approach to psychopathology by testing repeated self-ratings for three markers of complexity: memory , the presence of (time-varying) short- and long-range temporal correlations; regime shifts , transitions between different dynamic regimes; and sensitive dependence on initial conditions , also known as the “butterfly effect,” the divergence of initially similar trajectories. Methods We analyzed repeated self-ratings (1476 time points) from a single patient for the three markers of complexity using Bartels rank test, (partial) autocorrelation functions, time-varying autoregression, a non-stationarity test, change point analysis, and the Sugihara-May algorithm. Results Self-ratings concerning psychological states (e.g., the item “I feel down”) exhibited all complexity markers: time-varying short- and long-term memory, multiple regime shifts, and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Unexpectedly, self-ratings concerning physical sensations (e.g., the item “I am hungry”) exhibited less complex dynamics and their behavior was more similar to random variables. Conclusions Psychological self-ratings display complex dynamics. The presence of complexity in repeated self-ratings means that we have to acknowledge that (1) repeated self-ratings yield a complex pattern of data and not a set of (nearly) independent data points, (2) humans are “moving targets” whose self-ratings display non-stationary change processes including regime shifts, and (3) long-term prediction of individual trajectories may be fundamentally impossible. These findings point to a limitation of popular statistical time series models whose assumptions are violated by the presence of these complexity markers. We conclude that a complex systems approach to mental health should appreciate complexity as a fundamental aspect of psychopathology research by adopting the models and methods of complexity science. Promising first steps in this direction, such as research on real-time process monitoring, short-term prediction, and just-in-time interventions, are discussed.

The modern study of resilience in development is conceptually based on a complex adaptive system ontology in which many (intersystem) factors are involved in the emergence of resilient developmental pathways. However, the methods and models developed to study complex dynamical systems have not been widely adopted, and it has recently been noted this may constitute a problem moving the field forward. In the present paper, I argue that an ontological commitment to complex adaptive systems is not only possible, but highly recommended for the study of resilience in development. Such a commitment, however, also comes with a commitment to a different causal ontology and different research methods. In the first part of the paper, I discuss the extent to which current research on resilience in development conceptually adheres to the complex systems perspective. In the second part, I introduce conceptual tools that may help researchers conceptualize causality in complex systems. The third part discusses idiographic methods that could be used in a research program that embraces the interaction dominant causal ontology and idiosyncratic nature of the dynamics of complex systems. The conclusion is that a strong ontological commitment is warranted, but will require a radical departure from nomothetic science.

Background The past few years have seen a rapid growth in research on early warning signals (EWSs) in the psychopathology domain. Whereas early studies found EWSs to be associated with sudden changes in clinical change trajectories, later findings showed that EWSs may not be general across variables and cases and have low predictive power. These mixed results may be explained by the diverse methods employed in clinical EWS studies, with some of these approaches and practices potentially misaligned with the underlying theory of EWSs. Methods This article employs a variety of methods, such as a narrative review, mathematical derivations, simulations, and visual illustrations, to support our claims, explain specific assumptions, and guide future empirical research. This multitude of methods serves our aim to provide theoretical as well as methodological contributions to the field. Results We identify the following key assumptions for EWS validation studies: the system departs from a point attractor, EWSs appear before the critical transition, and EWS variables align with system destabilization. The literature review shows that the common research practices in the field are often not in line with those assumptions, and we provide specific suggestions corresponding to each of the assumptions. Conclusions More rigorous empirical evidence is needed to better validate the existence of EWSs in clinical sudden changes and fully realize their clinical potential. As theory-based prediction tools, EWSs require stronger alignment between theory and practice to enhance both theoretical understanding and predictive accuracy. Clinical trial number Not applicable.

In modern society, work stress is highly prevalent. Problematically, work stress can cause disease. To help understand the causal relationship between work stress and disease, we present a computational model of this relationship. That is, drawing from allostatic load theory, we captured the link between work stress and disease in a set of mathematical formulas. With simulation studies, we then examined our model’s ability to reproduce key findings from previous empirical research. Specifically, results from Study 1 suggested that our model could accurately reproduce established findings on daily fluctuations in cortisol levels (both on the group level and the individual level). Results from Study 2 suggested that our model could accurately reproduce established findings on the relationship between work stress and cardiovascular disease. Finally, results from Study 3 yielded new predictions about the relationship between workweek configurations (i.e., how working hours are distributed over days) and the subsequent development of disease. Together, our studies suggest a new, computational approach to studying the causal link between work stress and disease. We suggest that this approach is fruitful, as it aids the development of falsifiable theory, and as it opens up new ways of generating predictions about why and when work stress is (un)healthy.

Several competing aetiologies of developmental dyslexia suggest that the problems with acquiring literacy skills are causally entailed by low-level auditory and/or speech perception processes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diverging claims about the specific deficient peceptual processes under conditions of strong inference. Theoretically relevant acoustic features were extracted from a set of artificial speech stimuli that lie on a /bAk/-/dAk/ continuum. The features were tested on their ability to enable a simple classifier (Quadratic Discriminant Analysis) to reproduce the observed classification performance of average and dyslexic readers in a speech perception experiment. The 'classical' features examined were based on component process accounts of developmental dyslexia such as the supposed deficit in Envelope Rise Time detection and the deficit in the detection of rapid changes in the distribution of energy in the frequency spectrum (formant transitions). Studies examining these temporal processing deficit hypotheses do not employ measures that quantify the temporal dynamics of stimuli. It is shown that measures based on quantification of the dynamics of complex, interaction-dominant systems (Recurrence Quantification Analysis and the multifractal spectrum) enable QDA to classify the stimuli almost identically as observed in dyslexic and average reading participants. It seems unlikely that participants used any of the features that are traditionally associated with accounts of (impaired) speech perception. The nature of the variables quantifying the temporal dynamics of the speech stimuli imply that the classification of speech stimuli cannot be regarded as a linear aggregate of component processes that each parse the acoustic signal independent of one another, as is assumed by the 'classical' aetiologies of developmental dyslexia. It is suggested that the results imply that the differences in speech perception performance between average and dyslexic readers represent a scaled continuum rather than being caused by a specific deficient component.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the effects of behaviour change interventions is vital for accumulating valid scientific evidence, and useful to informing practice and policy-making across multiple domains. Traditional approaches to such evaluations have applied study designs and statistical models, which implicitly assume that change is linear, constant and caused by independent influences on behaviour (such as behaviour change techniques). This article illustrates limitations of these standard tools, and considers the benefits of adopting a complex adaptive systems approach to behaviour change research. It (1) outlines the complexity of behaviours and behaviour change interventions; (2) introduces readers to some key features of complex systems and how these relate to human behaviour change; and (3) provides suggestions for how researchers can better account for implications of complexity in analysing change mechanisms. We focus on three common features of complex systems (i.e., interconnectedness, non-ergodicity and non-linearity), and introduce Recurrence Analysis, a method for non-linear time series analysis which is able to quantify complex dynamics. The supplemental website provides exemplifying code and data for practical analysis applications. The complex adaptive systems approach can complement traditional investigations by opening up novel avenues for understanding and theorising about the dynamics of behaviour change.

Objectives Executive functioning (EF) is a key topic in neuropsychology. A multitude of underlying processes and constructs have been suggested to explain EF, which are measured by at least as many different neuropsychological tests. However, these tests often refer to summary statistics to quantify the construct under study, failing to capture the dynamic nature of EF. An alternative to these summary statistics is a time‐series approach that quantifies all the available temporal information. Methods We used recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to quantify the characteristics of any temporal pattern in random number generation data and we compared RQA to the traditional and static analysis of random number sequences. Results The traditional measures yield inconsistent results with increasing sequences length, both for computer‐generated and human‐generated sequences, whereas the RQA measures do not. Conclusion The results suggest that a time‐series approach does a better job at modelling what is happening on different time‐scales, and, therefore, is better at explaining how EF is changing in the course of the random number generation task. We argue that it is likely that these findings also apply to other neuropsychological EF tests, and that a time‐series approach is an important addition to the study of EF.

Background Challenging behaviors like aggression and self-injury are dangerous for clients and staff in residential care. These behaviors are not well understood and therefore often labeled as “complex”. Yet it remains vague what this supposed complexity entails at the individual level. This case-study used a three-step mixed-methods analytical strategy, inspired by complex systems theory. First, we construed a holistic summary of relevant factors in her daily life. Second, we described her challenging behavioral trajectory by identifying stable phases. Third, instability and extraordinary events in her environment were evaluated as potential change-inducing mechanisms between different phases. Case presentation A woman, living at a residential facility, diagnosed with mild intellectual disability and borderline personality disorder, who shows a chronic pattern of aggressive and self-injurious incidents. She used ecological momentary assessments to self-rate challenging behaviors daily for 560 days. Conclusions A qualitative summary of caretaker records revealed many internal and environmental factors relevant to her daily life. Her clinician narrowed these down to 11 staff hypothesized risk- and protective factors, such as reliving trauma, experiencing pain, receiving medical care or compliments. Coercive measures increased the chance of challenging behavior the day after and psychological therapy sessions decreased the chance of self-injury the day after. The majority of contemporaneous and lagged associations between these 11 factors and self-reported challenging behaviors were non-significant, indicating that challenging behaviors are not governed by mono-causal if-then relations, speaking to its complex nature. Despite this complexity there were patterns in the temporal ordering of incidents. Aggression and self-injury occurred on respectively 13% and 50% of the 560 days. On this timeline 11 distinct stable phases were identified that alternated between four unique states: high levels of aggression and self-injury, average aggression and self-injury, low aggression and self-injury, and low aggression with high self-injury. Eight out of ten transitions between phases were triggered by extraordinary events in her environment, or preceded by increased fluctuations in her self-ratings, or a combination of these two. Desirable patterns emerged more often and were less easily malleable, indicating that when she experiences bad times, keeping in mind that better times lie ahead is hopeful and realistic.

Background There has been an increasing interest in the development and prevention of sports injuries from a complex dynamic systems perspective. From this perspective, injuries may occur following critical fluctuations in the psychophysiological state of an athlete. Our objective was to quantify these so-called Early Warning Signals (EWS) as a proof of concept to determine their explanatory performance for injuries. The sample consisted of 23 professional youth football (soccer) players. Self-reports of psychological and physiological factors as well as data from heart rate and GPS sensors were gathered on every training and match day over two competitive seasons, which resulted in an average of 339 observations per player (range = 155–430). We calculated the Dynamic Complexity (DC) index of these data, representing a metric of critical fluctuations. Next, we used this EWS to predict injuries (traumatic and overuse). Results Results showed a significant peak of DC in 30% of the incurred injuries, in the six data points (roughly one and a half weeks) before the injury. The warning signal exhibited a specificity of 95%, that is, correctly classifying non-injury instances. We followed up on this promising result with additional calculations to account for the naturally imbalanced data (fewer injuries than non-injuries). The relatively low F 1 we obtained (0.08) suggests that the model's overall ability to discriminate between injuries and non-injuries is rather poor, due to the high false positive rate. Conclusion By detecting critical fluctuations preceding one-third of the injuries, this study provided support for the complex systems theory of injuries. Furthermore, it suggests that increasing critical fluctuations may be seen as an EWS on which practitioners can intervene. Yet, the relatively high false positive rate on the entire data set, including periods without injuries, suggests critical fluctuations may also precede transitions to other (e.g., stronger) states. Future research should therefore dig deeper into the meaning of critical fluctuations in the psychophysiological states of athletes. Key Points Complex Systems Theory suggests that sports injuries may be preceded by a warning signal characterized by a short window of increased critical fluctuations. Results of the current study showed such increased critical fluctuations before 30% of the injuries. Across the entire data set, we also found a considerable number of critical fluctuations that were not followed by an injury, suggesting that the warning signal may also precede transitions to other (e.g., healthier) states. Increased critical fluctuations may be interpreted as a window of opportunity for the practitioner to launch timely and targeted interventions, and researchers should dig deeper into the meaning of such fluctuations.

In this paper we show that response facilitation in choice reaction tasks achieved by priming the (previously perceived) effect is based on stimulus-response associations rather than on response-effect associations. The reduced key-press response time is not accounted for by earlier established couplings between the key-press movement and its subsequent effect, but instead results from couplings between this effect and the contingent key-release movement. This key-release movement is an intrinsic part of the entire performed response action in each trial of a reaction-time task, and always spontaneously follows the key-press movement. Eliminating the key-release movement from the task leads to the disappearance of the response facilitation, which raises the question whether response-effect associations actually play a role in studies that use the effect-priming paradigm. Together the three experiments presented in the paper cast serious doubts on the claim that action-effect couplings are acquired and utilized by the cognitive system in the service of action selection, and that the priming paradigm by itself can provide convincing evidence for this claim. As a corollary, we question whether the related two-step model for the ideomotor principle holds a satisfying explanation for how anticipation of future states guides action planning. The results presented here may have profound implications for priming studies in other disciplines of psychology as well.