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AimsWe examine whether inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled retinal vasculometry (RV) improves existing risk algorithms for incident stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and circulatory mortality.MethodsAI-enabled retinal vessel image analysis processed images from 88 052 UK Biobank (UKB) participants (aged 40–69 years at image capture) and 7411 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk participants (aged 48–92). Retinal arteriolar and venular width, tortuosity and area were extracted. Prediction models were developed in UKB using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for circulatory mortality, incident stroke and MI, and externally validated in EPIC-Norfolk. Model performance was assessed using optimism adjusted calibration, C-statistics and R2 statistics. Performance of Framingham risk scores (FRS) for incident stroke and incident MI, with addition of RV to FRS, were compared with a simpler model based on RV, age, smoking status and medical history (antihypertensive/cholesterol lowering medication, diabetes, prevalent stroke/MI).ResultsUKB prognostic models were developed on 65 144 participants (mean age 56.8; median follow-up 7.7 years) and validated in 5862 EPIC-Norfolk participants (67.6, 9.1 years, respectively). Prediction models for circulatory mortality in men and women had optimism adjusted C-statistics and R2 statistics between 0.75–0.77 and 0.33–0.44, respectively. For incident stroke and MI, addition of RV to FRS did not improve model performance in either cohort. However, the simpler RV model performed equally or better than FRS.ConclusionRV offers an alternative predictive biomarker to traditional risk-scores for vascular health, without the need for blood sampling or blood pressure measurement. Further work is needed to examine RV in population screening to triage individuals at high-risk.

Despite several studies demonstrating an independent and inverse association between cognition and mortality, the nature of this association still remains unclear. To examine the association of cognition and mortality after accounting for sociodemographic, health and lifestyle factors and to explore both test and population characteristics influencing this relationship. In a population based cohort of 8585 men and women aged 48-92 years, who had cognitive assessments in 2006-2011 and were followed up till 2016 for mortality, we examined the relationship between individual cognitive tests as well as a global cognition score to compare their ability in predicting mortality and whether these differed by population characteristics. Risk of death was estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models including sociodemographic, lifestyle and health variables, and self-reported comorbidities, as covariates in the models. Poor cognitive performance (bottom quartile of combined cognition score) was associated with higher risk of mortality, Hazard Ratio = 1.32 (95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.60); individual cognitive tests varied in their mortality associations and also performed differently in middle-age and older age groups. Poor cognitive performance is independently associated with higher mortality. This association is observed for global cognition and for specific cognitive abilities. Associations vary depending on the cognitive test (and domain) as well as population characteristics, namely age and education.

Background Improving data access, sharing, and linkage across local authorities and other agencies can contribute to improvements in population health. Whilst progress is being made to achieve linkage and integration of health and social care data, issues still exist in creating such a system. As part of wider work to create the Cambridge Child Health Informatics and Linked Data (Cam-CHILD) database, we wanted to examine barriers to the access, linkage, and use of local authority data. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted of scientific databases and the grey literature. Any publications reporting original research related to barriers or enablers of data linkage of or with local authority data in the United Kingdom were included. Barriers relating to the following issues were extracted from each paper: funding, fragmentation, legal and ethical frameworks, cultural issues, geographical boundaries, technical capability, capacity, data quality, security, and patient and public trust. Results Twenty eight articles were identified for inclusion in this review. Issues relating to technical capacity and data quality were cited most often. This was followed by those relating to legal and ethical frameworks. Issue relating to public and patient trust were cited the least, however, there is considerable overlap between this topic and issues relating to legal and ethical frameworks. Conclusions This rapid review is the first step to an in-depth exploration of the barriers to data access, linkage and use; a better understanding of which can aid in creating and implementing effective solutions. These barriers are not novel although they pose specific challenges in the context of local authority data.

Cognition covers a range of abilities, such as memory, response time and language, with tests assessing either specific or generic aspects. However differences between measures may be observed within the same individuals. To investigate the cross-sectional association of cognitive performance and socio-demographic factors using different assessment tools across a range of abilities in a British cohort study. Participants of the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) in Norfolk Study, aged 48-92 years, underwent a cognitive assessment between 2006 and 2011 (piloted between 2004 and 2006) and were investigated over a different domains using a range of cognitive tests. Cognitive measures were available on 8584 men and women. Though age, sex, education and social class were all independently associated with cognitive performance in multivariable analysis, different associations were observed for different cognitive tests. Increasing age was associated with increased risk of a poor performance score in all of the tests, except for the National Adult Reading Test (NART), an assessment of crystallized intelligence. Compared to women, men were more likely to have had poor performance for verbal episodic memory, Odds Ratio, OR = 1.99 (95% Confidence Interval, 95% CI 1.72, 2.31), attention OR = 1.62, (95% CI 1.39, 1.88) and prospective memory OR = 1.46, (95% CI 1.29, 1.64); however, no sex difference was observed for global cognition, OR = 1.07 (95%CI 0.93, 1.24). The association with education was strongest for NART, and weakest for processing speed. Age, sex, education and social class were all independently associated with performance on cognitive tests assessing a range of different domains. However, the magnitude of associations of these factors with different cognitive tests differed. The varying relationships seen across different tests may help explain discrepancies in results reported in the current literature, and provides insights into influences on cognitive performance in later life.

ObjectivesTo evaluate the characteristics of individuals recorded as having a dementia diagnosis in different routinely collected records and to examine the extent of overlap of dementia coding across data sources. Also, to present comparisons of secondary and primary care records providing value for researchers using routinely collected records for dementia outcome capture.Study designA prospective cohort study.Setting and participantsA cohort of 25 639 men and women in Norfolk, aged 40–79 years at recruitment (1993–1997) followed until 2018 linked to routinely collected to identify dementia cases. Data sources include mortality from death certification and National Health Service (NHS) hospital or secondary care records. Primary care records for a subset of the cohort were also reviewed.Primary outcome measureDiagnosis of dementia (any-cause).ResultsOver 2000 participants (n=2635 individuals) were found to have a dementia diagnosis recorded in one or more of the data sources examined. Limited concordance was observed across the secondary care data sources. We also observed discrepancies with primary care records for the subset and report on potential linkage-related selection bias.ConclusionsUse of different types of record linkage from varying parts of the UK’s health system reveals differences in recorded dementia diagnosis, indicating that dementia can be identified to varying extents in different parts of the NHS system. However, there is considerable variation, and limited overlap in those identified. We present potential selection biases that might occur depending on whether cause of death, or primary and secondary care data sources are used. With the expansion of using routinely collected health data, researchers must be aware of these potential biases and inaccuracies, reporting carefully on the likely extent of limitations and challenges of the data sources they use.

Background While physical activity interventions have been reported to reduce hospital stays, it is not clear if, in the general population, usual physical activity patterns may be associated with subsequent hospital use independently of other lifestyle factors. Objective We examined the relationship between reported usual physical activity and subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital for 11,228 men and 13,786 women aged 40–79 years in the general population. Methods Participants from a British prospective population-based cohort study were followed for 20 years (1999–2019) using record linkage to document hospital usage. Total physical activity was estimated by combining workplace and leisure time activity reported in a baseline lifestyle questionnaire and repeated in a subset at a second time point approximately 12 years later. Results Compared to those reporting no physical activity, participants who were the most active had a lower likelihood of spending more than 20 days in hospital odds ratio (OR) 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81–0.96) over the next 20 years after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Participants reporting any activity had a mean of 0.42 fewer hospital days per year between 1999 and 2009 compared to inactive participants, an estimated potential saving to the National Health Service (NHS) of £247 per person per year, or approximately 7% of UK health expenditure. Participants who remained physically active or became active 12 years later had lower risk of subsequent hospital usage than those who remained inactive or became inactive, p-trend < 0.001. Conclusion Usual physical activity in this middle-aged and older population predicts lower future hospitalisations - time spent in hospital and number of admissions independently of behavioural and sociodemographic factors. Small feasible differences in usual physical activity in the general population may potentially have a substantial impact on hospital usage and costs.

Purpose To examine the relationship between visual acuity (VA) and self-reported vision (SRV) in relation to falls in 8317 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk Eye study. Methods All participants completed a health questionnaire that included a question regarding SRV and questions regarding the number of falls in the past year. Distance VA was measured using a logMAR chart for each eye. Poor SRV was defined as those reporting fair or poor distance vision. The relationship between VA and SRV and self-rated falls was analysed by logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, chronic disease, medication use and grip strength. Results Of 8317 participants, 26.7% (95% CI 25.7% to 27.7%) had fallen in the past 12 months. Worse VA and poorer SRV were associated with one or more falls in multivariable analysis (OR for falls=1.31, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.66 and OR=1.32, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.61, respectively). Poorer SRV was significantly associated with falls even after adjusting for VA (OR=1.28, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.57). Conclusions SRV was associated with falls independently of VA and could be used as a simple proxy measure for other aspects of visual function to detect people requiring vision-related falls interventions.

BackgroundThe ageing population and prevalence of long-term disorders with multimorbidity are a major health challenge worldwide. The associations between comorbid conditions and mortality risk are well established; however, few prospective community-based studies have reported on prior risk factors for incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity. We aimed to explore the independent associations for a range of demographic, lifestyle and physiological determinants and the likelihood of subsequent hospital incident multimorbidity.MethodsWe examined incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in 25 014 men and women aged 40–79 in a British prospective population-based study recruited in 1993–1997 and followed up until 2019. The determinants of incident multimorbidity, defined as Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models for the 10-year period 1999–2009 and repeated with independent measurements in a second 10-year period 2009–2019.ResultsBetween 1999 and 2009, 18 179 participants (73% of the population) had a hospital admission. Baseline 5-year and 10-year incident multimorbidities were observed in 6% and 12% of participants, respectively. Age per 10-year increase (OR 2.19, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.33) and male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47) predicted incident multimorbidity over 10 years. In the subset free of the most serious diseases at baseline, current smoking (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.15), body mass index >30 kg/m² (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.70) and physical inactivity (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29) were positively associated and plasma vitamin C (a biomarker of plant food intake) per SD increase (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.91) inversely associated with incident 10-year multimorbidity after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, social class, education, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Results were similar when re-examined for a further time period in 2009–2019.ConclusionAge, male sex and potentially modifiable lifestyle behaviours including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity and low fruit and vegetable intake were associated with increased risk of future incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity.

ObjectivesTo investigate whether residential area deprivation index predicts subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital independently of individual social class and lifestyle factors.DesignProspective population-based study.SettingThe European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study.Participants11 214 men and 13 763 women in the general population, aged 40–79 years at recruitment (1993–1997), alive in 1999.Main outcome measureTotal admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital during a 19-year time period (1999–2018).ResultsCompared to those with residential Townsend Area Deprivation Index lower than the average for England and Wales, those with a higher than average deprivation index had a higher likelihood of spending >20 days in hospital multivariable adjusted OR 1.18 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.29) and having 7 or more admissions OR 1.11 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.22) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Occupational social class and educational attainment modified the association between area deprivation and hospitalisation; those with manual social class and lower education level were at greater risk of hospitalisation when living in an area with higher deprivation index (p-interaction=0.025 and 0.020, respectively), while the risk for non-manual and more highly educated participants did not vary greatly by area of residence.ConclusionResidential area deprivation predicts future hospitalisations, time spent in hospital and number of admissions, independently of individual social class and education level and other behavioural factors. There are significant interactions such that residential area deprivation has greater impact in those with low education level or manual social class. Conversely, higher education level and social class mitigated the association of area deprivation with hospital usage.

Heavy drinkers of alcohol are reported to use hospitals more than non-drinkers, but it is unclear whether light-to-moderate drinkers use hospitals more than non-drinkers. We examined the relationship between alcohol consumption in 10,883 men and 12,857 women aged 40-79 years in the general population and subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital. Participants from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based study were followed for ten years (1999-2009) using record linkage. Compared to current non-drinkers, men who reported any alcohol drinking had a lower risk of spending more than twenty days in hospital multivariable adjusted OR 0.80 (95%CI 0.68-0.94) after adjusting for age, smoking status, education, social class, body mass index and prevalent diseases. Women who were current drinkers were less likely to have any hospital admissions multivariable adjusted OR 0.84 (95%CI 0.74-0.95), seven or more admissions OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.88) or more than twenty hospital days OR 0.70 (95%CI 0.62-0.80). However, compared to lifelong abstainers, men who were former drinkers had higher risk of any hospital admissions multivariable adjusted OR 2.22 (95%CI 1.51-3.28) and women former drinkers had higher risk of seven or more admissions OR 1.30 (95%CI 1.01-1.67). Current alcohol consumption was associated with lower risk of future hospital usage compared with non-drinkers in this middle aged and older population. In men, this association may in part be due to whether former drinkers are included in the non-drinker reference group but in women, the association was consistent irrespective of the choice of reference group. In addition, there were few participants in this cohort with very high current alcohol intake. The measurement of past drinking, the separation of non-drinkers into former drinkers and lifelong abstainers and the choice of reference group are all influential in interpreting the risk of alcohol consumption on future hospitalisation.