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"Haywood, J"
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Reduced Winter‐Time Clear Air Turbulence in the Trans‐Atlantic Region Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
by
Barnes, K. L.
,
Jones, A. C.
,
Williams, P. D.
in
Aerosols
,
Atmospheric forcing
,
Atmospheric turbulence
2025
Clear air turbulence (CAT) is a safety threat within the aviation sector and is projected to worsen under global warming. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that aims to ameliorate climate change by artificially cooling Earth. Climate model simulations have found a side‐effect of SAI would be a strengthening of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This links to a stronger North Atlantic jet stream and suggests enhanced CAT in the region. Here, we analyze simulations from the UKESM1 climate model to evaluate the impact of a realistic SAI application on winter‐time trans‐Atlantic CAT. We find a 23% decrease in severe CAT frequency under SAI when compared to a baseline high‐end global warming scenario. Our results indicate that the amelioration of global warming under SAI has a more dominant impact on CAT over the North Atlantic than residual impacts to the NAO. Plain Language Summary Stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed to reduce climate change by cooling the planet in a similar way to volcanic eruptions. Previous research has shown that SAI may strengthen the North Atlantic jet stream, potentially enhancing Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) in this region, with impacts to the aviation sector. We use a climate model to simulate climate under global warming and SAI to evaluate impacts on CAT in the North Atlantic region in the northern hemisphere winter. We find a significant reduction in CAT events under SAI relative to high‐end global warming, suggesting that the North Atlantic jet stream changes under SAI have a small impact on CAT compared to the impact of global cooling. Key Points Winter‐time severe North Atlantic Clear Air Turbulence under high‐end global warming increases by 225% from now to the end of the century We simulate Stratospheric Aerosol Injection where temperature is reduced from high‐end global warming to a moderate global warming SAI counteracts CAT enhancements due to global warming, resulting in CAT levels being closer to that from a moderate global warming scenario
Journal Article
Modulation of Syndecan-1 Shedding after Hemorrhagic Shock and Resuscitation
by
Menge, Tyler
,
Holcomb, John B.
,
Haywood-Watson, Ricky J.
in
Adult
,
Antigens, CD - metabolism
,
Biological response modifiers
2011
The early use of fresh frozen plasma as a resuscitative agent after hemorrhagic shock has been associated with improved survival, but the mechanism of protection is unknown. Hemorrhagic shock causes endothelial cell dysfunction and we hypothesized that fresh frozen plasma would restore endothelial integrity and reduce syndecan-1 shedding after hemorrhagic shock. A prospective, observational study in severely injured patients in hemorrhagic shock demonstrated significantly elevated levels of syndecan-1 (554±93 ng/ml) after injury, which decreased with resuscitation (187±36 ng/ml) but was elevated compared to normal donors (27±1 ng/ml). Three pro-inflammatory cytokines, interferon-γ, fractalkine, and interleukin-1β, negatively correlated while one anti-inflammatory cytokine, IL-10, positively correlated with shed syndecan-1. These cytokines all play an important role in maintaining endothelial integrity. An in vitro model of endothelial injury then specifically examined endothelial permeability after treatment with fresh frozen plasma orlactated Ringers. Shock or endothelial injury disrupted junctional integrity and increased permeability, which was improved with fresh frozen plasma, but not lactated Ringers. Changes in endothelial cell permeability correlated with syndecan-1 shedding. These data suggest that plasma based resuscitation preserved endothelial syndecan-1 and maintained endothelial integrity, and may help to explain the protective effects of fresh frozen plasma after hemorrhagic shock.
Journal Article
Sea-spray geoengineering in the HadGEM2-ES earth-system model: radiative impact and climate response
2012
The radiative impact and climate effects of geoengineering using sea-spray aerosols have been investigated in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using a fully prognostic treatment of the sea-spray aerosols and also including their direct radiative effect. Two different emission patterns were considered, one to maximise the direct effect in clear skies, the other to maximise the indirect effects of the sea-spray on low clouds; in both cases the emissions were limited to 10% of the ocean area. While the direct effect was found to be significant, the indirect effects on clouds were much more effective in reducing global mean temperature as well as having less of an impact on global mean precipitation per unit temperature reduction. The impact on the distribution of precipitation was found to be similar in character, but less in degree, to that simulated by a previous study using a much simpler treatment of this geoengineering process.
Journal Article
How do CMIP6 Models Represent the Vertical Structure and Chemical Properties of Biomass‐Burning Aerosols Emitted in Central Africa?
2026
CMIP6 climate models have difficulties representing the strong absorption properties of biomass‐burning aerosols (BBA) over the Southeast Atlantic and the associated direct forcing. This study takes advantage of unique in situ and remote sensing observations to evaluate the vertical profile and chemical composition of BBA, which are key properties for modeling radiative interactions. Over land, CMIP6 models show a sharper vertical decrease in carbonaceous aerosol concentration than observed, indicating insufficient vertical mixing. Over the ocean, most models transport BBA lower, between 1 and 1.5 km, than observed. This could be due to both excessive subsidence and lack of self‐lofting of BBA. In addition, the ratio between black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations is underestimated by about 0.1 compared to observations. These biases limit the ability of models to capture the absorption above clouds in this region, which could have implications for the regional radiative and climatic impact of African BBA.
Journal Article
Biomass burning related ozone damage on vegetation over the Amazon forest: a model sensitivity study
2015
The HadGEM2 earth system climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation, under present-day climate conditions. Here we consider biomass burning emissions from wildfires, deforestation fires, agricultural forest burning, and residential and commercial combustion. Simulated surface ozone concentration is evaluated against observations taken at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon forest for years 2010 to 2012. The model is able to reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface ozone mixing ratio at the two sites, but overestimates the magnitude of the monthly averaged hourly measurements by 5–15 ppb for each available month at one of the sites. We vary biomass burning emissions over South America by ±20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% to quantify the modelled impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations and ozone damage on vegetation productivity over the Amazon forest. We used the ozone damage scheme in the \"high\" sensitivity mode to give an upper limit for this effect. Decreasing South American biomass burning emissions by 100% (i.e. to zero) reduces surface ozone concentrations (by about 15 ppb during the biomass burning season) and suggests a 15% increase in monthly mean net primary productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local increases up to 60%. The simulated impact of ozone damage from present-day biomass burning on vegetation productivity is about 230 TgC yr−1. Taking into account that uncertainty in these estimates is substantial, this ozone damage impact over the Amazon forest is of the same order of magnitude as the release of carbon dioxide due to fire in South America; in effect it potentially doubles the impact of biomass burning on the carbon cycle.
Journal Article
Ground-based aerosol characterization during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) field experiment
2014
This paper investigates the physical and chemical characteristics of aerosols at ground level at a site heavily impacted by biomass burning. The site is located near Porto Velho, Rondônia, in the southwestern part of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, and was selected for the deployment of a large suite of instruments, among them an Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor. Our measurements were made during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) field experiment, which consisted of a combination of aircraft and ground-based measurements over Brazil, aimed to investigate the impacts of biomass burning emissions on climate, air quality, and numerical weather prediction over South America. The campaign took place during the dry season and the transition to the wet season in September/October 2012. During most of the campaign, the site was impacted by regional biomass burning pollution (average CO mixing ratio of 0.6 ppm), occasionally superimposed by intense (up to 2 ppm of CO), freshly emitted biomass burning plumes. Aerosol number concentrations ranged from ~1000 cm−3 to peaks of up to 35 000 cm−3 (during biomass burning (BB) events, corresponding to an average submicron mass mean concentrations of 13.7 μg m−3 and peak concentrations close to 100 μg m−3. Organic aerosol strongly dominated the submicron non-refractory composition, with an average concentration of 11.4 μg m−3. The inorganic species, NH4, SO4, NO3, and Cl, were observed, on average, at concentrations of 0.44, 0.34, 0.19, and 0.01 μg m−3, respectively. Equivalent black carbon (BCe) ranged from 0.2 to 5.5 μg m−3, with an average concentration of 1.3 μg m−3. During BB peaks, organics accounted for over 90% of total mass (submicron non-refractory plus BCe), among the highest values described in the literature. We examined the ageing of biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA) using the changes in the H : C and O : C ratios, and found that throughout most of the aerosol processing (O : C ≅ 0.25 to O : C ≅ 0.6), no remarkable change is observed in the H : C ratio (~1.35). Such a result contrasts strongly with previous observations of chemical ageing of both urban and Amazonian biogenic aerosols. At higher levels of processing (O : C > 0.6), the H : C ratio changes with a H : C / O : C slope of −0.5, possibly due to the development of a combination of BB (H : C / O : C slope = 0) and biogenic (H : C /O :C slope =−1) organic aerosol (OA). An analysis of the ΔOA /ΔCO mass ratios yields very little enhancement in the OA loading with atmospheric processing, consistent with previous observations. These results indicate that negligible secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation occurs throughout the observed BB plume processing, or that SOA formation is almost entirely balanced by OA volatilization. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) of the organic aerosol spectra resulted in three factors: fresh BBOA, aged BBOA, and low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol (LV-OOA). Analysis of the diurnal patterns and correlation with external markers indicates that during the first part of the campaign, OA concentrations are impacted by local fire plumes with some chemical processing occurring in the near-surface layer. During the second part of the campaign, long-range transport of BB plumes above the surface layer, as well as potential SOAs formed aloft, dominates OA concentrations at our ground-based sampling site. This manuscript describes the first ground-based deployment of the aerosol mass spectrometry at a site heavily impacted by biomass burning in the Amazon region, allowing a deeper understanding of aerosol life cycle in this important ecosystem.
Journal Article
Sociality reduces the probability of eradication success of arthropod pests
by
Lester, P. J.
,
Haywood, J.
,
Howse, M. W. F.
in
Animal reproduction
,
arthropods
,
Biomedical and Life Sciences
2023
Social insects are successful and globally significant invaders. Compared to ongoing suppression, eradication is seen as an ideal solution and cost effective in the long term. The success of eradication attempts is not guaranteed and identifying key factors that could influence the success of such management programs would be beneficial. In this study, 239 eradication attempts were compiled and analysed to identify why eradication attempts fail, with a focus on how eusociality of the target species impacts eradication success. All else remaining constant, the odds of successful eradication were 79% lower when targeting social species compared to non-social insects. Eradication success was shown to increase when comparing more recent attempts to earlier ones but was found to decrease as the duration of the attempt went on. Eradication attempts that occurred on islands, and those that targeted species with a broader host range, were also associated with increased success. A review of cited reasons for eradication failure highlighted the importance of employing effective control treatments, management, and monitoring systems, as well as garnering adequate social and political support. This study indicates how social insects are particularly challenging to eradicate; it also notes the importance of considering both logistical and biological aspects of any eradication, before initiating eradication attempts.
Journal Article
Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations
by
Devenish, B. J.
,
Mattis, I.
,
Dacre, H. F.
in
Atmospheric sciences
,
dispersion
,
distal fine ash fraction
2011
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud‐free skies allowed ground‐based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric‐dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles. Key Points Quantitative prediction of volcanic ash concentrations Estimation of distal fine ash fraction Reconstruction of volcano plume height time series
Journal Article
Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009
by
Spracklen, D. V.
,
Carslaw, K. S.
,
Turnock, S. T.
in
Aerosol chemistry
,
Aerosol concentrations
,
Aerosol effects
2015
Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period 1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998), PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF = −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF = −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF = −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of −42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of −11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990–2009 (\"brightening\") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.
Journal Article