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Findings of large randomised trials have shown that lowering LDL cholesterol with statins reduces vascular morbidity and mortality rapidly, but limited evidence exists about the long-term efficacy and safety of statin treatment. The aim of the extended follow-up of the Heart Protection Study (HPS) is to assess long-term efficacy and safety of lowering LDL cholesterol with statins, and here we report cause-specific mortality and major morbidity in the in-trial and post-trial periods. 20 536 patients at high risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes were allocated either 40 mg simvastatin daily or placebo, using minimised randomisation. Mean in-trial follow-up was 5·3 years (SD 1·2), and post-trial follow-up of surviving patients yielded a mean total duration of 11·0 years (SD 0·6). The primary outcome of the long-term follow-up of HPS was first post-randomisation major vascular event, and analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 48489393. During the in-trial period, allocation to simvastatin yielded an average reduction in LDL cholesterol of 1·0 mmol/L and a proportional decrease in major vascular events of 23% (95% CI 19–28; p<0·0001), with significant divergence each year after the first. During the post-trial period (when statin use and lipid concentrations were similar in both groups), no further significant reductions were noted in either major vascular events (risk ratio [RR] 0·95 [0·89–1·02]) or vascular mortality (0·98 [0·90–1·07]). During the combined in-trial and post-trial periods, no significant differences were recorded in cancer incidence at all sites (0·98 [0·92–1·05]) or any particular site, or in mortality attributed to cancer (1·01 [0·92–1·11]) or to non-vascular causes (0·96 [0·89–1·03]). More prolonged LDL-lowering statin treatment produces larger absolute reductions in vascular events. Moreover, even after study treatment stopped in HPS, benefits persisted for at least 5 years without any evidence of emerging hazards. These findings provide further support for the prompt initiation and long-term continuation of statin treatment. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Merck & Co, Roche Vitamins.

Throughout the usual LDL cholesterol range in Western populations, lower blood concentrations are associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk. In such populations, therefore, reducing LDL cholesterol may reduce the development of vascular disease, largely irrespective of initial cholesterol concentrations. 20,536 UK adults (aged 40-80 years) with coronary disease, other occlusive arterial disease, or diabetes were randomly allocated to receive 40 mg simvastatin daily (average compliance: 85%) or matching placebo (average non-study statin use: 17%). Analyses are of the first occurrence of particular events, and compare all simvastatin-allocated versus all placebo-allocated participants. These \"intention-to-treat\" comparisons assess the effects of about two-thirds (85% minus 17%) taking a statin during the scheduled 5-year treatment period, which yielded an average difference in LDL cholesterol of 1.0 mmol/L (about two-thirds of the effect of actual use of 40 mg simvastatin daily). Primary outcomes were mortality (for overall analyses) and fatal or non-fatal vascular events (for subcategory analyses), with subsidiary assessments of cancer and of other major morbidity. All-cause mortality was significantly reduced (1328 [12.9%] deaths among 10,269 allocated simvastatin versus 1507 [14.7%] among 10,267 allocated placebo; p=0.0003), due to a highly significant 18% (SE 5) proportional reduction in the coronary death rate (587 [5.7%] vs 707 [6.9%]; p=0.0005), a marginally significant reduction in other vascular deaths (194 [1.9%] vs 230 [2.2%]; p=0.07), and a non-significant reduction in non-vascular deaths (547 [5.3%] vs 570 [5.6%]; p=0.4). There were highly significant reductions of about one-quarter in the first event rate for non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death (898 [8.7%] vs 1212 [11.8%]; p<0.0001), for non-fatal or fatal stroke (444 [4.3%] vs 585 [5.7%]; p<0.0001), and for coronary or non-coronary revascularisation (939 [9.1%] vs 1205 [11.7%]; p<0.0001). For the first occurrence of any of these major vascular events, there was a definite 24% (SE 3; 95% CI 19-28) reduction in the event rate (2033 [19.8%] vs 2585 [25.2%] affected individuals; p<0.0001). During the first year the reduction in major vascular events was not significant, but subsequently it was highly significant during each separate year. The proportional reduction in the event rate was similar (and significant) in each subcategory of participant studied, including: those without diagnosed coronary disease who had cerebrovascular disease, or had peripheral artery disease, or had diabetes; men and, separately, women; those aged either under or over 70 years at entry; and--most notably--even those who presented with LDL cholesterol below 3.0 mmol/L (116 mg/dL), or total cholesterol below 5.0 mmol/L (193 mg/dL). The benefits of simvastatin were additional to those of other cardioprotective treatments. The annual excess risk of myopathy with this regimen was about 0.01%. There were no significant adverse effects on cancer incidence or on hospitalisation for any other non-vascular cause. Adding simvastatin to existing treatments safely produces substantial additional benefits for a wide range of high-risk patients, irrespective of their initial cholesterol concentrations. Allocation to 40 mg simvastatin daily reduced the rates of myocardial infarction, of stroke, and of revascularisation by about one-quarter. After making allowance for non-compliance, actual use of this regimen would probably reduce these rates by about one-third. Hence, among the many types of high-risk individual studied, 5 years of simvastatin would prevent about 70-100 people per 1000 from suffering at least one of these major vascular events (and longer treatment should produce further benefit). The size of the 5-year benefit depends chiefly on such individuals' overall risk of major vascular events, rather than on their blood lipid concentrations alone.

Individuals with diabetes are at increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, although typically their plasma concentrations of LDL cholesterol are similar to those in the general population. Previous evidence about the effects of lowering cholesterol in people with diabetes has been limited, and most diabetic patients do not currently receive cholesterol-lowering therapy despite their increased risk. 5963 UK adults (aged 40-80 years) known to have diabetes, and an additional 14 573 with occlusive arterial disease (but no diagnosed diabetes), were randomly allocated to receive 40 mg simvastatin daily or matching placebo. Prespecified analyses in these prior disease subcategories, and other relevant subcategories, were of first major coronary event (ie, non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death) and of first major vascular event (ie, major coronary event, stroke or revascularisation). Analyses were also conducted of subsequent vascular events during the scheduled treatment period. Comparisons are of all simvastatin-allocated versus all placebo-allocated participants (ie, intention to treat), which yielded an average difference in LDL cholesterol of 1·0 mmol/L (39 mg/dL) during the 5-year treatment period. Both among the participants who presented with diabetes and among those who did not, there were highly significant reductions of about a quarter in the first event rate for major coronary events, for strokes, and for re-vascularisations. For the first occurrence of any of these major vascular events among participants with diabetes, there was a definite 22% (95% Cl 13-30) reduction in the event rate (601 [20·2%] simvastatin-allocated vs 748 [25·1%] placebo-allocated, p<0·0001), which was similar to that among the other high-risk individuals studied. There were also highly significant reductions of 33% (95% Cl 17–46, p=0·0003) among the 2912 diabetic participants who did not have any diagnosed occlusive arterial disease at entry, and of 27% (95% Cl 13–40, p=0·0007) among the 2426 diabetic participants whose pretreatment LDL cholesterol concentration was below 3-0 mmol/L (116 mg/dL). The proportional reduction in risk was also about a quarter among various other subcategories of diabetic patient studied, including: those with different duration, type, or control of diabetes; those aged over 65 years at entry or with hypertension; and those with total cholesterol below 5-0 mmol/L (193 mg/dL). In addition, among participants who had a first major vascular event following randomisation, allocation to simvastatin reduced the rate of subsequent events during the scheduled treatment period. The present study provides direct evidence that cholesterol-lowering therapy is beneficial for people with diabetes even if they do not already have manifest coronary disease or high cholesterol concentrations. Allocation to 40 mg simvastatin daily reduced the rate of first major vascular events by about a quarter in a wide range of diabetic patients studied. After making allowance for non-compliance, actual use of this statin regimen would probably reduce these rates by about a third. For example, among the type of diabetic patient studied without occlusive arterial disease, 5 years of treatment would be expected to prevent about 45 people per 1000 from having at least one major vascular event (and, among these 45 people, to prevent about 70 first or subsequent events during this treatment period). Statin therapy should now be considered routinely for all diabetic patients at sufficiently high risk of major vascular events, irrespective of their initial cholesterol concentrations.

It has been suggested that increased intake of various antioxidant vitamins reduces the incidence rates of vascular disease, cancer, and other adverse outcomes. 20 536 UK adults (aged 40–80) with coronary disease, other occlusive arterial disease, or diabetes were randomly allocated to receive antioxidant vitamin supplementation (600 mg vitamin E, 250 mg vitamin C, and 20 mg β-carotene daily) or matching placebo. Intention-to-treat comparisons of outcome were conducted between all vitamin-allocated and all placebo-allocated participants. An average of 83% of participants in each treatment group remained compliant during the scheduled 5-year treatment period. Allocation to this vitamin regimen approximately doubled the plasma concentration of α-tocopherol, increased that of vitamin C by one-third, and quadrupled that of β-carotene. Primary outcomes were major coronary events (for overall analyses) and fatal or non-fatal vascular events (for subcategory analyses), with subsidiary assessments of cancer and of other major morbidity. There were no significant differences in all-cause mortality (1446 [14·1%] vitamin-allocated vs 1389 [13·5%] placebo-allocated), or in deaths due to vascular (878 [8·6%] vs 840 [8·2%]) or non-vascular (568 [5·5%] vs 549 [5·3%]) causes. Nor were there any significant differences in the numbers of participants having non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death (1063 [10·4%] vs 1047 [10·2%]), non-fatal or fatal stroke (511 [5·0%] vs 518 [5·0%]), or coronary or non-coronary revascularisation (1058 [10·3%] vs 1086 [10·6%]). For the first occurrence of any of these “major vascular events”, there were no material differences either overall (2306 [22·5%] vs 2312 [22·5%]; event rate ratio 1·00 [95% CI 0·94–1·06]) or in any of the various subcategories considered. There were no significant effects on cancer incidence or on hospitalisation for any other non-vascular cause. Among the high-risk individuals that were studied, these antioxidant vitamins appeared to be safe. But, although this regimen increased blood vitamin concentrations substantially, it did not produce any significant reductions in the 5-year mortality from, or incidence of, any type of vascular disease, cancer, or other major outcome.

It has been suggested that inflammation status, as assessed by C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, modifies the vascular protective effects of statin therapy. In particular, there have been claims that statins might be more beneficial in people with raised CRP concentrations, and might even be ineffective in people with low concentrations of both CRP and LDL cholesterol. This study aimed to test this hypothesis. In 69 UK hospitals, 20 536 men and women aged 40–80 years at high risk of vascular events were randomly assigned to simvastatin 40 mg daily versus matching placebo for a mean of 5·0 years. Patients were categorised into six baseline CRP groups (<1·25, 1·25–1·99, 2·00–2·99, 3·00–4·99, 5·00–7·99, and ≥8·00 mg/L). The primary endpoint for subgroup analyses was major vascular events, defined as the composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or revascularisation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN48489393. Overall, allocation to simvastatin resulted in a significant 24% (95% CI 19–28) proportional reduction in the incidence of first major vascular event after randomisation (2033 [19·8%] allocated simvastatin vs 2585 [25·2%] allocated placebo). There was no evidence that the proportional reduction in this endpoint, or its components, varied with baseline CRP concentration (trend p=0·41). Even in participants with baseline CRP concentration less than 1·25 mg/L, major vascular events were significantly reduced by 29% (99% CI 12–43, p<0·0001; 239 [14·1%] vs 329 [19·4%]). No significant heterogeneity in the relative risk reduction was recorded between the four subgroups defined by the combination of low or high baseline concentrations of LDL cholesterol and CRP (p=0·72). In particular, there was clear evidence of benefit in those with both low LDL cholesterol and low CRP (27% reduction, 99% CI 11–40, p<0·0001; 295 [15·6%] vs 400 [20·9%]). Evidence from this large-scale randomised trial does not lend support to the hypothesis that baseline CRP concentration modifies the vascular benefits of statin therapy materially. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Merck, Roche Vitamins, and GlaxoSmithKline.

Introduction Populations at increased risk of dementia need to be identified for well‐powered trials of preventive interventions. Weight loss, which often occurs in pre‐clinical dementia, could identify a population at sufficiently high dementia risk. Methods In 12,975 survivors in the Heart Protection Study statin trial of people with, or at high risk of, cardiovascular disease, the association of weight change over 5 years during the trial with post‐trial dementia recorded in electronic hospital admission and death records (n = 784) was assessed, after adjustment for age, sex, treatment allocation, and deprivation measures. Results Among the 60% without substantial weight gain (≤2 kg weight gain), each 1 kg weight loss was associated with a risk ratio for dementia of 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.07). Weight loss ≥4 kg and cognitive function below the mean identified participants aged ≥67 years with a 13% 10‐year dementia risk. Discussion The combination of weight loss and high vascular risk identified individuals at high risk of dementia who could be recruited to dementia prevention trials.

Statin therapy reduces the rates of heart attack, stroke, and revascularisation among a wide range of individuals. Reliable assessment of its cost-effectiveness in different circumstances is needed. 20 536 adults (aged 40–80 years) with vascular disease or diabetes were randomly allocated 40 mg simvastatin daily (10 269) or placebo (10 267) for an average of 5 years. Comparisons were made of hospitalisation and statin costs (2001 UK prices) during the scheduled treatment period between all simvastatin-allocated versus all placebo-allocated participants. Cost-effectiveness was estimated among different categories of participant. Allocation to simvastatin was associated with a highly significant 22% (95% CI 16–27; p<0·0001) proportional reduction in hospitalisation costs for all vascular events, with similar proportional reductions in every subcategory of participant studied. During an average of 5 years, estimated absolute reductions in vascular event costs per person allocated 40 mg simvastatin daily ranged from UK£847 (SE 137) in the highest risk quintile studied to £264 (48) in the lowest. Mean excess cost of statin therapy among participants allocated simvastatin was £1497 (8), with similar absolute increases in every subcategory. Costs of preventing a major vascular event with 40 mg simvastatin daily ranged from £4500 (95% CI 2300–7400) among participants with a 42% 5-year major vascular event rate to £31 100 (22 900–42 500) among those with a 12% rate (corresponding to 5-year major coronary event rates of 22% and 4%, respectively). Statin therapy is cost effective for a wider range of individuals with vascular disease or diabetes than previously recognised (particularly with lower-priced generics). It would be appropriate to consider reducing the estimated level of vascular event risk at which statin therapy is recommended.

Lower blood cholesterol concentrations have consistently been found to be strongly associated with lower risks of coronary disease but not with lower risks of stroke. Despite this observation, previous randomised trials had indicated that cholesterol-lowering statin therapy reduces the risk of stroke, but large-scale prospective confirmation has been needed. 3280 adults with cerebrovascular disease, and an additional 17256 with other occlusive arterial disease or diabetes, were randomly allocated 40 mg simvastatin daily or matching placebo. Subgroup analyses were prespecified of first \"major vascular event\" (ie, non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, stroke of any type, or any revascularisation procedure) in prior disease subcategories. Subsidiary outcomes included any stroke, and stroke sub-type. Comparisons are of all simvastatin-allocated versus all placebo-allocated participants (ie, \"intention-to-treat\"), which yielded an average difference in LDL cholesterol of 1.0 mmol/L (39 mg/dL) during the 5-year treatment period. Overall, there was a highly significant 25% (95% CI 15-34) proportional reduction in the first event rate for stroke (444 [4.3%] simvastatin vs 585 [5.7%] placebo; p<0.0001), reflecting a definite 28% (19-37) reduction in presumed ischaemic strokes (p<0.0001) and no apparent difference in strokes attributed to haemorrhage (51 [0.5%] vs 53 [0.5%]; rate ratio 0.95 [0.65-1.40]; p=0.8). In addition, simvastatin reduced the numbers having transient cerebral ischaemic attacks alone (2.0% vs 2.4%; p=0.02) or requiring carotid endarterectomy or angioplasty (0.4% vs 0.8%; p=0.0003). The reduction in stroke was not significant during the first year, but was already significant (p=0.0004) by the end of the second year. Among patients with pre-existing cerebrovascular disease there was no apparent reduction in the stroke rate, but there was a highly significant 20% (8-29) reduction in the rate of any major vascular event (406 [24.7%] vs 488 [29.8%]; p=0.001). The proportional reductions in stroke were about one-quarter in each of the other subcategories of participant studied, including: those with coronary disease or diabetes; those aged under or over 70 years at entry; and those presenting with different levels of blood pressure or lipids (even when the pretreatment LDL cholesterol was below 3.0 mmol/L [116 mg/dL]). Much larger numbers of people in the present study suffered a stroke than in any previous cholesterol-lowering trial. The results demonstrate that statin therapy rapidly reduces the incidence not only of coronary events but also of ischaemic strokes, with no apparent effect on cerebral haemorrhage, even among individuals who do not have high cholesterol concentrations. Allocation to 40 mg simvastatin daily reduced the rate of ischaemic strokes by about one-quarter and so, after making allowance for non-compliance in the trial, actual use of this regimen would probably reduce the stroke rate by about a third. HPS also provides definitive evidence that statin therapy is beneficial for people with pre-existing cerebrovascular disease, even if they do not already have manifest coronary disease.

Background Simvastatin reduces cardiovascular mortality and morbidity but, as with other HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, can cause significant muscle toxicity and has been associated with elevations of liver transaminases. Methods Muscle and liver adverse effects of simvastatin 40 mg daily were evaluated in a randomized placebo-controlled trial involving 20,536 UK patients with vascular disease or diabetes (in which a substantial reduction of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity has previously been demonstrated). Results The excess incidence of myopathy in the simvastatin group was < 0.1% over the 5 years of the trial, and there were no significant differences between the treatment groups in the incidence of serious hepatobiliary disease. Conclusion Among the many different types of high-risk patient studied (including women, older individuals and those with low cholesterol levels), there was a very low incidence (< 0.1%) of myopathy during 5 years treatment with simvastatin 40 mg daily. The risk of hepatitis, if any, was undetectable even in this very large long-term trial. Routine monitoring of liver function tests during treatment with simvastatin 40 mg is not useful. Trial Registration ISRCTN48489393