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An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important research instrument for supporting the scientific justification for the Minamata Convention and monitoring of the implementation of targets of this convention, as well as the EU Mercury Strategy. This project provided the state of the art with regard to the development of the latest emission inventories for mercury, future emission scenarios, dispersion modelling of atmospheric mercury on a global and regional scale, and source–receptor techniques for mercury emission apportionment on a global scale.

The Multi-Compartment Hg (mercury) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) is an international multimodel research initiative intended to simulate and analyze the geospatial distributions and temporal trends of environmental Hg to inform effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs): the Minamata Convention on Mercury (MC) and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). This MCHgMAP overview paper presents its science objectives, background, and rationale; experimental design (multimodel ensemble (MME) architecture, inputs and evaluation data, simulations, and reporting framework); and methodologies for the evaluation and analysis of simulated environmental Hg levels. The primary goals of the project are to facilitate detection and attribution of recent (observed) and future (projected) spatial patterns and temporal trends of global environmental Hg levels and identification of key knowledge gaps in Hg science and modeling to improve future effectiveness evaluation cycles of the MEAs. The current advances and challenges of Hg models, emission inventories, and observational data are examined, and an optimized multimodel experimental design is introduced to address the key policy questions of the MEAs. A common set of emissions, environmental conditions, and observation datasets is proposed (where possible) to enhance the MME comparability. A novel harmonized simulation approach between atmospheric, land, oceanic, and multimedia models is proposed to account for the short- and long-term changes in secondary Hg exchanges and to achieve mechanistic consistency of Hg levels across environmental matrices. A comprehensive set of model experiments is proposed and prioritized to ensure systematic analysis and participation of a variety of models from the scientific community.

A new generation of satellites for Earth observation and telecommunications are being designed and built with off the shelf components. This is driving down costs and permitting the launch of large satellite swarms with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. On-orbit maneuvers are commonly performed using ion thrusters. Mercury is one of the cheapest and easiest to store propellants for electric propulsion. While some mercury released in Low Earth Orbit may escape Earth’s gravitational field, mercury emissions originating from many common orbital maneuvers will return to Earth. The environmental and human health implications of such releases have not been evaluated. Using an atmospheric chemical transport model, we simulate global deposition of mercury released from satellite propulsion systems. We estimate that 75% of the mercury falling back to Earth will be deposited in the world’s oceans, with potentially negative implications for commercial fish and other marine life. Understanding the scale of this novel mercury source in a post-Minamata Convention world is necessary to limit ecosystem exposure to mercury contamination.

Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury requires all parties to “control, and where feasible, reduce” mercury (Hg) emissions from a convention-specified set of sources. However, the convention does not specify the extent of the measures to be adopted, which may only be analysed by decision-makers using modelled scenarios. Currently, the numerical models available to study the Hg atmospheric cycle require significant expertise and high-end hardware, with results which are generally available on a time frame of days to weeks. In this work we present HERMES, a statistical emulator built on the output of a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) for Hg (ECHMERIT), to simulate changes in anthropogenic Hg (Hganthr) deposition fluxes in a source-receptor framework, due to perturbations to Hganthr emissions and the associated statistical significance of the changes. The HERMES emulator enables stakeholders to evaluate the implementation of different Hganthr emission scenarios in an interactive and real-time manner, simulating the application of the different Best Available Technologies. HERMES provides the scientific soundness of a full CTM numerical framework in an interactive and user-friendly spreadsheet, without the necessity for specific training or formation and is a first step towards a more comprehensive, and integrated, decision support system to aid decision-makers in the implementation of the Minamata Convention.

Establishing mercury (Hg) source-receptor (SR) relationship matrices provides a tool to improve the understanding of the geographic relationship between regions of Hg release and its eventual deposition. SR relationship matrices are therefore a useful starting point for the development of policies aimed at reducing the impact of Hg emissions from anthropogenic activities (Hganthr) on sensitive ecosystems and areas potentially at risk of Hg contamination. A global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) has been used to simulate the emission, transport and fate of Hganthr from 12 source regions, considering a range of uncertainty in the modelled chemical and physical processes. This ensemble of simulations gives an estimate of the Hg deposition which derives from each source region, as well as an estimate of the uncertainty of the calculated deposition flux. The uncertainty has been calculated using the bootstrap method to estimate this uncertainty in terms of the normalised confidence interval amplitude of the mean (NCIAM). Within the calculated confidence ranges, for almost all regions the contribution to the Hg deposition flux from remote sources is greater than that from domestic sources. Europe and South Asia, where the contributions are statistically indistinguishable, are exceptions, as is East Asia, with local sources dominating the Hg deposition flux. East Asia is the single most important remote source region for most receptor regions. The results yield such high uncertainties in the deposition flux for many receptor regions that the results are unlikely to be taken into consideration by policy makers. This uncertainty is particularly relevant when considering the “domestic” contribution to regional deposition, highlighting the need for more studies to resolve remaining uncertainties in the atmospheric Hg cycle, and Hganthr emission inventories.

The scaling properties of turbulent flows are well established in the inertial sub-range. However, those of the synoptic-scale motions are less known, also because of the difficult analysis of data presenting nonstationary and periodic features. Extensive analysis of experimental wind speed data, collected at the Mauna Loa Observatory of Hawaii, is performed using different methods. Empirical Mode Decomposition, interoccurrence times statistics, and arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis allow to eliminate effects of large-scale modulations, and provide scaling properties of the field fluctuations (Hurst exponent, interoccurrence distribution, and intermittency correction). The obtained results suggest that the mesoscale wind dynamics owns features which are typical of the inertial sub-range turbulence, thus extending the validity of the turbulent cascade phenomenology to scales larger than observed before.

Air–sea exchange of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) is a major component of the global mercury (Hg) biogeochemical cycle but remains poorly understood due to sparse in situ measurements. Here, we used long-term atmospheric Hg0 (Hgair0) observations combined with air mass back trajectories at four ground-based monitoring sites to study Hg0 air–sea exchange. The trajectories showed that all four sites sample mainly marine air masses. At all sites, we observed a gradual increase in mean Hgair0 concentration with air mass recent residence time in the marine boundary layer (MBL), followed by a steady state. The pattern is consistent with the thin-film gas exchange model, which predicts net Hg0 emissions from the surface ocean until the Hgair0 concentration normalised by Henry's law constant matches the surface ocean dissolved Hg0 (Hgaq0) concentration. This provides strong evidence that ocean Hg0 emissions directly influence Hgair0 concentrations at these sites. Using the observed relationship between Hgair0 concentrations and air mass recent MBL residence time, we estimated mean surface ocean Hgaq0 concentrations of 4–7 pg L−1 for the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans (AA) and 4 pg L−1 for the Southern, South Atlantic and south Indian oceans (SSI). Estimated ocean Hg0 emission fluxes ranged between 0.57–0.86 and 0.60–0.87 ngm-2h-1 for the AA and SSI, respectively, with a global extrapolated mean flux of around 2270 t yr−1 (1600–2900 t yr−1). This study demonstrates the applicability of long-term, ground-based Hgair0 observations in constraining Hg0 air–sea exchange.

Current understanding of mercury (Hg) behavior in the atmosphere contains significant gaps. Some key characteristics of Hg processes, including anthropogenic and geogenic emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air–surface exchange, are still poorly known. This study provides a complex analysis of processes governing Hg fate in the atmosphere involving both measured data from ground-based sites and simulation results from chemical transport models. A variety of long-term measurements of gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) and reactive Hg (RM) concentration as well as Hg wet deposition flux have been compiled from different global and regional monitoring networks. Four contemporary global-scale transport models for Hg were used, both in their state-of-the-art configurations and for a number of numerical experiments to evaluate particular processes. Results of the model simulations were evaluated against measurements. As follows from the analysis, the interhemispheric GEM gradient is largely formed by the prevailing spatial distribution of anthropogenic emissions in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of natural and secondary emissions enhance the south-to-north gradient, but their effect is less significant. Atmospheric chemistry has a limited effect on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of GEM concentration in surface air. In contrast, RM air concentration and wet deposition are largely defined by oxidation chemistry. The Br oxidation mechanism can reproduce successfully the observed seasonal variation of the RM ∕ GEM ratio in the near-surface layer, but it predicts a wet deposition maximum in spring instead of in summer as observed at monitoring sites in North America and Europe. Model runs with OH chemistry correctly simulate both the periods of maximum and minimum values and the amplitude of observed seasonal variation but shift the maximum RM ∕ GEM ratios from spring to summer. O3 chemistry does not predict significant seasonal variation of Hg oxidation. Hence, the performance of the Hg oxidation mechanisms under study differs in the extent to which they can reproduce the various observed parameters. This variation implies possibility of more complex chemistry and multiple Hg oxidation pathways occurring concurrently in various parts of the atmosphere.

Mercury (Hg) is a worldwide contaminant that can cause adverse health effects to wildlife and humans. While atmospheric modeling traces the link from emissions to deposition of Hg onto environmental surfaces, large uncertainties arise from our incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes (oxidation pathways, deposition, and re-emission). Atmospheric Hg reactivity is exacerbated in high latitudes and there is still much to be learned from polar regions in terms of atmospheric processes. This paper provides a synthesis of the atmospheric Hg monitoring data available in recent years (2011–2015) in the Arctic and in Antarctica along with a comparison of these observations with numerical simulations using four cutting-edge global models. The cycle of atmospheric Hg in the Arctic and in Antarctica presents both similarities and differences. Coastal sites in the two regions are both influenced by springtime atmospheric Hg depletion events and by summertime snowpack re-emission and oceanic evasion of Hg. The cycle of atmospheric Hg differs between the two regions primarily because of their different geography. While Arctic sites are significantly influenced by northern hemispheric Hg emissions especially in winter, coastal Antarctic sites are significantly influenced by the reactivity observed on the East Antarctic ice sheet due to katabatic winds. Based on the comparison of multi-model simulations with observations, this paper discusses whether the processes that affect atmospheric Hg seasonality and interannual variability are appropriately represented in the models and identifies research gaps in our understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycling in high latitudes.

A new generation of satellites for Earth observation and telecommunications are being designed and built with off the shelf components. This is driving down costs and permitting the launch of large satellite swarms with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage. On-orbit maneuvers are commonly performed using ion thrusters. Mercury is one of the cheapest and easiest to store propellants for electric propulsion. While some mercury released in Low Earth Orbit may escape Earth's gravitational field, mercury emissions originating from many common orbital maneuvers will return to Earth. The environmental and human health implications of such releases have not been evaluated. Using an atmospheric chemical transport model, we simulate global deposition of mercury released from satellite propulsion systems. We estimate that 75% of the mercury falling back to Earth will be deposited in the world's oceans, with potentially negative implications for commercial fish and other marine life. Understanding the scale of this novel mercury source in a post-Minamata Convention world is necessary to limit ecosystem exposure to mercury contamination.