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The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO₂ and CH₄ . Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO₂ of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH₄ to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH₄/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon-climate modeling efforts.

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as “inter-annual climate sensitivity”. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE–T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

The long-term record of atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate shows that the sensitivity of this growth rate to tropical temperature variability has increased by a factor of about two in the past five decades, and was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions, implying that moisture regulates this sensitivity. Sensitivity of tropical carbon flux to temperature Global warming and increasing drought conditions are thought likely to reduce the capacity of the tropical land carbon sink during this century, causing a positive climate feedback, but limited data are available to test the Earth system models making such predictions. This study makes use of long-term records of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to demonstrate that the sensitivity of the tropical terrestrial carbon cycle to temperature fluctuations has increased by a factor of two during the past 50 years — most probably in response to changes in humidity. The analysis also suggests that current models do not capture the observed increase in sensitivity and that a better understanding of the factors driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming is needed. Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback 1 , 2 . But available data 3 , 4 , 5 are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence 6 , 7 , 8 demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas 6 , 9 , 10 . Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change 10 . Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak 9 . We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

We determine the annual timing of spring recovery from spaceborne microwave radiometer observations across northern hemisphere boreal evergreen forests for 1979–2014. We find a trend of advanced spring recovery of carbon uptake for this period, with a total average shift of 8.1 d (2.3 d/decade). We use this trend to estimate the corresponding changes in gross primary production (GPP) by applying in situ carbon flux observations. Micrometeorological CO₂ measurements at four sites in northern Europe and North America indicate that such an advance in spring recovery would have increased the January–June GPP sum by 29 g·C·m−2 [8.4 g·C·m−2 (3.7%)/decade]. We find this sensitivity of the measured springtime GPP to the spring recovery to be in accordance with the corresponding sensitivity derived from simulations with a land ecosystem model coupled to a global circulation model. The model-predicted increase in springtime cumulative GPP was 0.035 Pg/decade [15.5 g·C·m−2 (6.8%)/decade] for Eurasian forests and 0.017 Pg/decade for forests in North America [9.8 g·C·m−2 (4.4%)/decade]. This change in the springtime sum of GPP related to the timing of spring snowmelt is quantified here for boreal evergreen forests.

Measurements of midday vertical atmospheric CO2 distributions reveal annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients that are inconsistent with atmospheric models that estimate a large transfer of terrestrial carbon from tropical to northern latitudes. The three models that most closely reproduce the observed annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients estimate weaker northern uptake of -1.5 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) and weaker tropical emission of +0.1 Pg C year(-1) compared with previous consensus estimates of -2.4 and +1.8 Pg C year(-1), respectively. This suggests that northern terrestrial uptake of industrial CO2 emissions plays a smaller role than previously thought and that, after subtracting land-use emissions, tropical ecosystems may currently be strong sinks for CO2.

We present long-term (5-year) measurements of particulate matter with an upper diameter limit of ∼ 10 µm (PM10), elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) in aerosol filter samples collected at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory in the middle-taiga subzone (Siberia). The data are complemented with carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. Air mass back trajectory analysis and satellite image analysis were used to characterise potential source regions and the transport pathway of haze plumes. Polluted and background periods were selected using a non-parametric statistical approach and analysed separately. In addition, near-pristine air masses were selected based on their EC concentrations being below the detection limit of our thermal–optical instrument. Over the entire sampling campaign, 75 and 48 % of air masses in winter and in summer, respectively, and 42 % in spring and fall are classified as polluted. The observed background concentrations of CO and EC showed a sine-like behaviour with a period of 365 ± 4 days, mostly due to different degrees of dilution and the removal of polluted air masses arriving at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) from remote sources. Our analysis of the near-pristine conditions shows that the longest periods with clean air masses were observed in summer, with a frequency of 17 %, while in wintertime only 1 % can be classified as a clean. Against a background of low concentrations of CO, EC, and OC in the near-pristine summertime, it was possible to identify pollution plumes that most likely came from crude-oil production sites located in the oil-rich regions of Western Siberia. Overall, our analysis indicates that most of the time the Siberian region is impacted by atmospheric pollution arising from biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions. A relatively clean atmosphere can be observed mainly in summer, when polluted species are removed by precipitation and the aerosol burden returns to near-pristine conditions.

Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985-2010) in six European regions. Our aims are to (1) attribute changes in the intensity and frequency of simulated ecosystem productivity extremes (EPEs) to recent changes in climate extremes, CO2 concentration, and land use, and to (2) assess the effect of timing and seasonal interaction on the intensity of EPEs. Evaluating the ensemble simulations reveals that (1) recent trends in EPEs are seasonally contrasting: spring EPEs show consistent trends towards increased carbon uptake, while trends in summer EPEs are predominantly negative in net ecosystem productivity (i.e. higher net carbon release under drought and heat in summer) and close-to-neutral in gross productivity. While changes in climate and its extremes (mainly warming) and changes in CO2 increase spring productivity, changes in climate extremes decrease summer productivity neutralizing positive effects of CO2. Furthermore, we find that (2) drought or heat wave induced carbon losses in summer (i.e. negative EPEs) can be partly compensated by a higher uptake in the preceding spring in temperate regions. Conversely, however, carry-over effects from spring to summer that arise from depleted soil moisture exacerbate the carbon losses caused by climate extremes in summer, and are thus undoing spring compensatory effects. While the spring-compensation effect is increasing over time, the carry-over effect shows no trend between 1985-2010. The ensemble ecosystem model simulations provide a process-based interpretation and generalization for spring-summer interacting carbon cycle effects caused by climate extremes (i.e. compensatory and carry-over effects). In summary, the ensemble ecosystem modelling approach presented in this paper offers a novel route to scrutinize ecosystem responses to changing climate extremes in a probabilistic framework, and to pinpoint the underlying eco-physiological mechanisms.

It has only been recognized relatively recently that biological processes can control and steer the Earth system in a globally significant way. Recent evidence suggests that, on a global scale, terrestrial ecosystems will provide a positive feedback in a warming world, albeit of uncertain magnitude.

Observations of the atmospheric sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the pan-Arctic domain are extremely scarce, limiting our knowledge of carbon turnover in this climatically sensitive environment and the fate of the enormous carbon reservoirs conserved in the permafrost. Especially critical are the gaps in the high latitudes of Siberia, covered by the vast permafrost underlain tundra, where only several atmospheric monitoring sites are operational. This paper presents the first two years (September 2018–January 2021) of accurate continuous observations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 dry mole fractions at the recently deployed tower-based measurement station “DIAMIS” (73.5068° N, 80.5198° E) located on the southwestern coast of the Taimyr Peninsula, Siberia, at the Gulf of the Yenisei River that opens to the Kara Sea (Arctic Ocean). In this paper, we summarized the scientific rationale of the site, examined the seasonal footprint of the station with an analysis of terrestrial vegetation and maritime sector contributing to the captured atmospheric signal, and illustrated temporal patterns of CO2 and CH4 for the daytime mixed atmospheric layer over the continent–sea interface. Along with the temporal variations reflecting a signal caused pan-Arctic and not very much influenced by the local processes, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of the synoptic anomalies representing the atmospheric signatures of regional sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 for the studied high-arctic Siberian domain of ~625 thousand km2, with nearly equal capturing the land surface (54%) and the ocean (46%) throughout the year. Both for CO2 and CH4, we have observed a sea–continent declining trend, presuming a larger depletion of trace gases in the maritime air masses compared to the continental domain. So far, over the Kara Sea, we have not detected any prominent signals of CH4 that might have indicated processes of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of cold seeps–still mainly observed in the eastern Arctic Seas—The Laptev Sea and the East-Siberian Sea.