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AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the relation between diagnosis of covid-19 with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (also known as variant of concern 202012/01) and the risk of hospital admission compared with diagnosis with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variants.DesignRetrospective cohort analysis.SettingCommunity based SARS-CoV-2 testing in England, individually linked with hospital admission data.Participants839 278 patients with laboratory confirmed covid-19, of whom 36 233 had been admitted to hospital within 14 days, tested between 23 November 2020 and 31 January 2021 and analysed at a laboratory with an available TaqPath assay that enables assessment of S-gene target failure (SGTF), a proxy test for the B.1.1.7 variant. Patient data were stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, region of residence, and date of positive test.Main outcome measuresHospital admission between one and 14 days after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test.Results27 710 (4.7%) of 592 409 patients with SGTF variants and 8523 (3.5%) of 246 869 patients without SGTF variants had been admitted to hospital within one to 14 days. The stratum adjusted hazard ratio of hospital admission was 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.57) for patients with covid-19 infected with SGTF variants, compared with those infected with non-SGTF variants. The effect was modified by age (P<0.001), with hazard ratios of 0.93-1.21 in patients younger than 20 years with versus without SGTF variants, 1.29 in those aged 20-29, and 1.45-1.65 in those aged ≥30 years. The adjusted absolute risk of hospital admission within 14 days was 4.7% (95% confidence interval 4.6% to 4.7%) for patients with SGTF variants and 3.5% (3.4% to 3.5%) for those with non-SGTF variants.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the risk of hospital admission is higher for people infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease. The higher severity may be specific to adults older than 30 years.

Incidence of lymphogranuloma venereum increased in England during 2018–2019, after a period of decline. Our retrospective analysis of national surveillance data identified a rapid increase in diagnoses among HIV-negative men who have sex with men. These findings indicate a need for sustained surveillance and targeted public health action.

Background The World Health Organization recommends changing the first-line antimicrobial treatment for gonorrhoea when ≥ 5% of Neisseria gonorrhoeae cases fail treatment or are resistant. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option has been decreasing in many countries. We used antimicrobial resistance surveillance data and developed mathematical models to project the time to reach the 5% threshold for resistance to first-line antimicrobials used for N. gonorrhoeae . Methods We used data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales from 2000–2018 about minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime and ceftriaxone and antimicrobial treatment in two groups, heterosexual men and women (HMW) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed two susceptible-infected-susceptible models to fit these data and produce projections of the proportion of resistance until 2030. The single-step model represents the situation in which a single mutation results in antimicrobial resistance. In the multi-step model, the sequential accumulation of resistance mutations is reflected by changes in the MIC distribution. Results The single-step model described resistance to ciprofloxacin well. Both single-step and multi-step models could describe azithromycin and cefixime resistance, with projected resistance levels higher with the multi-step than the single step model. For ceftriaxone, with very few observed cases of full resistance, the multi-step model was needed to describe long-term dynamics of resistance. Extrapolating from the observed upward drift in MIC values, the multi-step model projected ≥ 5% resistance to ceftriaxone could be reached by 2030, based on treatment pressure alone. Ceftriaxone resistance was projected to rise to 13.2% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.7–44.8%) among HMW and 19.6% (95%CrI: 2.6–54.4%) among MSM by 2030. Conclusions New first-line antimicrobials for gonorrhoea treatment are needed. In the meantime, public health authorities should strengthen surveillance for AMR in N. gonorrhoeae and implement strategies for continued antimicrobial stewardship. Our models show the utility of long-term representative surveillance of gonococcal antimicrobial susceptibility data and can be adapted for use in, and for comparison with, other countries.

BackgroundPersons living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are presumed to be at higher risk of adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to increasing age and frailty, but the magnitude of increased risk is not well quantified.MethodsAfter linking demographic and mortality data for cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and January 2021 in England, a random sample of 6000 persons who died and 36 000 who did not die within 28 days of a positive test was obtained from the dataset of 3 020 800 patients. Based on an address-matching process, the residence type of each case was categorised into one of private home and residential or nursing LTCF. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted.ResultsMultivariable analysis showed that an interaction effect between age and residence type determined the outcome. Compared with a 60-year-old person not living in LTCF, the adjusted OR (aOR) for same-aged persons living in residential and nursing LTCFs was 1.77 (95% CI 1.21 to 2.6, p=0.0017) and 3.95 (95% CI 2.77 to 5.64, p<0.0001), respectively. At 90 years of age, aORs were 0.87 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.06, p=0.21) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.9, p=0.001), respectively. The model had an overall accuracy of 94.2% (94.2%) when applied to the full dataset of 2 978 800 patients.ConclusionThis study found that residents of LTCFs in England had higher odds of death up to 80 years of age. Beyond 80 years, there was no difference in the odds of death for LTCF residents compared with those in the wider community.

ObjectivesThe use of antibiotics as pre-exposure or postexposure prophylaxis for sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention (STI prophylaxis) is not currently recommended in the UK, but there is evidence that self-prescribing occurs among those at greatest risk. We present the prevalence and factors associated with STI prophylaxis among a community sample of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users.MethodsThe 2019 online PrEP User Survey ran between 17 May and 1 July. Eligible participants included UK residents reporting HIV PrEP use or having tried to obtain HIV PrEP since January 2017. STI prophylaxis use was defined as reporting buying antibiotics to prevent STIs, either privately or through the internet; this question was only asked to HIV PrEP users. Factors associated with STI prophylaxis use were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.ResultsOverall, 9% (167/1856) of HIV PrEP users reported STI prophylaxis use; 97% were gay or bisexual men, 84% reported white ethnicity, 55% resided in London and 69% were aged ≥35 years. Factors associated with STI prophylaxis included: reporting ≥5 compared with 1–4 condomless sex partners in the past 6 months (12% vs 5.6%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.80; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.64), reporting chemsex drug use compared with no sexualised drug use in the past 12 months (13% vs 6.0%, aOR=1.88; 95% CI 1.20 to 2.93) and reporting an STI diagnosis in the past 12 months (12% vs 6.6%, aOR=1.54; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.18). Variables not significant in multivariable analyses included: ethnicity, age, residence and HIV PrEP sourcing.ConclusionsApproximately 1 in 10 HIV PrEP users from this community sample reported self-prescribed STI prophylaxis. STI prophylaxis was associated with sexual behaviour known to facilitate STI transmission and with a history of recent STIs acquisition. Given the potential risk of antimicrobial resistance, sexual health clinicians should consider asking attendees, especially HIV PrEP users, about the use of antibiotics as STI prophylaxis, to inform appropriate counselling, testing and management.

Of the 58,186 coronavirus deaths among adults in England during March-December 2020, 77% occurred in hospitals, 93% were in patients >60 years, and 91% occurred within 28 days of positive specimen. Cumulative mortality rates were highest among persons of Black, Asian, other, or mixed ethnicities and in socioeconomically deprived areas.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) rapidly replaced Delta (B.1.617.2) to become dominant in England. Our study assessed differences in transmission between Omicron and Delta using two independent data sources and methods. Omicron and Delta cases were identified through genomic sequencing, genotyping and S-gene target failure in England from 5–11 December 2021. Secondary attack rates for named contacts were calculated in household and non-household settings using contact tracing data, while household clustering was identified using national surveillance data. Logistic regression models were applied to control for factors associated with transmission for both methods. For contact tracing data, higher secondary attack rates for Omicron vs. Delta were identified in households (15.0% vs. 10.8%) and non-households (8.2% vs. 3.7%). For both variants, in household settings, onward transmission was reduced from cases and named contacts who had three doses of vaccine compared to two, but this effect was less pronounced for Omicron (adjusted risk ratio, aRR 0.78 and 0.88) than Delta (aRR 0.62 and 0.68). In non-household settings, a similar reduction was observed only in contacts who had three doses vs. two doses for both Delta (aRR 0.51) and Omicron (aRR 0.76). For national surveillance data, the risk of household clustering, was increased 3.5-fold for Omicron compared to Delta (aRR 3.54 (3.29–3.81)). Our study identified increased risk of onward transmission of Omicron, consistent with its successful global displacement of Delta. We identified a reduced effectiveness of vaccination in lowering risk of transmission, a likely contributor for the rapid propagation of Omicron.

ObjectivesQuarterly STI screening is recommended for high-risk gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK, but frequent antibiotic exposure could potentially increase the risk of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) developing in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. We investigated whether repeat diagnosis of gonorrhoea in those attending sexual health services (SHS) was associated with reduced antimicrobial susceptibility.MethodsAntimicrobial susceptibility data relating to the most recent gonorrhoea diagnosis for each individual included in the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (2015–2019) were matched to their historical records in the national GUMCAD STI surveillance data set (2012–2019). The number of gonorrhoea diagnoses in the previous 3 years was calculated for each SHS attendee. Logistic regression was used to examine the associations between the number of diagnoses and reduced susceptibility to ceftriaxone (minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) >0.03 mg/L), cefixime (MIC >0.06 mg/L) and azithromycin (MIC >0.25 mg/L) at the time of the latest diagnosis.ResultsOf 6161 individuals included in the analysis, 3913 (63.5%) were MSM, 1220 (19.8%) were heterosexual men and 814 (13.2%) were women. Among MSM, 2476 (63.3%) had 1 past gonorrhoea diagnosis, 1295 (33.1%) had 2–4, 140 (3.6%) 5–9, and 2 (0.1%) ≥10. Most women and heterosexual men (91.7%) had one past gonorrhoea diagnosis; none had more than four. Reduced ceftriaxone and cefixime susceptibility was more common among MSM with two to four gonorrhoea diagnoses (3.8% and 5.8%, respectively) compared with those with one (2.2% and 3.9%, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounding, this association remained (adjusted OR: 1.59, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.37, p=0.02; adjusted OR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.14, p=0.01). No evidence was found for any other associations.ConclusionsAmong MSM, repeat diagnosis of gonorrhoea may be associated with reduced ceftriaxone and cefixime susceptibility. As these are last-line therapies for gonorrhoea, further research is needed to assess the impact of intensive STI screening on AMR.

IntroductionAs COVID-19 has deepened health inequalities, we examine the COVID-19 experience of MSM as a population disproportionately affected by poor-health.MethodsAn online cross-sectional survey of MSM recruited via social media and dating applications for 3 weeks in November/December 2021. Questions included those on COVID-19 experience addressing: COVID-19 test history; when (if ever) tested positive; self-perception of ever having had COVID-19 and long-COVID. Logistic regression was used to assess sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics associated with these outcomes.ResultsAmong 1,038 participants (median age: 41; 88.1% white ethnicity): most reported ever testing for COVID-19 (95.0%; n=987), while 19.6% (193/987) reported a positive result [8.1% (80/987) testing positive since August 2021]. In those without a prior positive test (n=793) or testing history (n=52), an additional 148 participants reported self-perceived COVID, resulting in 32.8% (341/1038) with a COVID-19 history. In these, one-quarter (25.2%; 86/341) reported long-COVID (8.3%; 86/1038 of all) and 4.1% (14/341) hospitalisation history for COVID-related symptoms (1.8%; 19/1038 of all). COVID-19 history was associated with residence in England (aOR:1.52,95%CI:1.02-2.28), degree-level education (aOR:1.33;95%CI:1.01-1.75), and vaccination status (aOR:2.98,95%CI:1.61-5.53, none/one dose vs. boosted). Long-COVID was associated with hospitalisation history (aOR:3.21;95%CI:1.09-9.45) and degree-level education (aOR:0.56;95%CI:0.36-0.99).ConclusionIn this large community sample, one in five MSM reported testing positive for COVID-19, and one-third had a COVID-19 history. There was no evidence of age or ethnicity-related inequalities, although long-COVID appears to exceed general population estimates. Continued monitoring of long-COVID in MSM is warranted as COVID-19 infections in the UK continue to increase.