Explore the vast range of titles available.

Sharp fronts and eddies that are ubiquitous in the world ocean, as well as features such as shelf seas and under-ice-shelf cavities, are not captured in climate projections. Such small-scale processes can play a key role in how the large-scale ocean and cryosphere evolve under climate change, posing a challenge to climate models.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) HighResMIP is a new experimental design for global climate model simulations that aims to assess the impact of model horizontal resolution on climate simulation fidelity. We describe a hierarchy of global coupled model resolutions based on the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 – Global Coupled vn 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) model that ranges from an atmosphere–ocean resolution of 130 km–1∘ to 25 km–1/12∘, all using the same forcings and initial conditions. In order to make such high-resolution simulations possible, the experiments have a short 30-year spinup, followed by at least century-long simulations with constant forcing to assess drift.We assess the change in model biases as a function of both atmosphere and ocean resolution, together with the effectiveness and robustness of this new experimental design. We find reductions in the biases in top-of-atmosphere radiation components and cloud forcing. There are significant reductions in some common surface climate model biases as resolution is increased, particularly in the Atlantic for sea surface temperature and precipitation, primarily driven by increased ocean resolution. There is also a reduction in drift from the initial conditions both at the surface and in the deeper ocean at higher resolution. Using an eddy-present and eddy-rich ocean resolution enhances the strength of the North Atlantic ocean circulation (boundary currents, overturning circulation and heat transport), while an eddy-present ocean resolution has a considerably reduced Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength. All models have a reasonable representation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In general, the biases present after 30 years of simulations do not change character markedly over longer timescales, justifying the experimental design.

Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application.The extent to which sea level will rise under climate change is uncertain, with some of this uncertainty being quantifiable and some unquantifiable. This Review discusses past and present presentations of this uncertainty in IPCC and regional assessments, as well as their influence on users' interpretations.

The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections. The Southern Ocean is critically important for global climate yet poorly represented by climate models. Here the authors trace sea surface temperature biases in this region to cloud-related errors in atmospheric-model simulated surface heat fluxes and provide a pathway to improve the models.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO2-emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Purpose of Review Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.

Versions 6 and 7 of the UK Global Ocean configuration (known as GO6 and GO7) will form the ocean components of the Met Office GC3.1 coupled model and UKESM1 earth system model to be used in CMIP6Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. The label “GO6” refers to a traceable hierarchy of three model configurations at nominal 1, 1/4 and 1/12∘ resolutions. The GO6 configurations are described in detail with particular focus on aspects which have been updated since the previous version (GO5). Results of 30-year forced ocean-ice integrations with the 1/4∘ model are presented, in which GO6 is coupled to the GSI8.1 sea ice configuration and forced with CORE2Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments Phase 2 fluxes. GO6-GSI8.1 shows an overall improved simulation compared to GO5-GSI5.0, especially in the Southern Ocean where there are more realistic summertime mixed layer depths, a reduced near-surface warm and saline biases, and an improved simulation of sea ice. The main drivers of the improvements in the Southern Ocean simulation are tuning of the vertical and isopycnal mixing parameters. Selected results from the full hierarchy of three resolutions are shown. Although the same forcing is applied, the three models show large-scale differences in the near-surface circulation and in the short-term adjustment of the overturning circulation. The GO7 configuration is identical to the GO6 1/4∘ configuration except that the cavities under the ice shelves are opened. Opening the ice shelf cavities has a local impact on temperature and salinity biases on the Antarctic shelf with some improvement in the biases in the Weddell Sea.

We present a framework for developing storylines of UK sea level rise to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. Our approach builds on the UK national climate projections (UKCP18) and maintains the same physically consistent methods that preserve component correlations and traceability between global mean sea level (GMSL) and local relative sea level (RSL). Five example storylines are presented that represent singular trajectories of future sea level rise drawn from the underlying large Monte Carlo simulations. The first three storylines span the total range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) likely range GMSL projections across the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The final two storylines are based upon recent high-end storylines of GMSL presented in AR6 and the recent literature. Our results suggest that even the most optimistic sea level rise outcomes for the UK will require adaptation of up to 1 m of sea level rise for large sections of coastline by 2300. For the storyline most consistent with current international greenhouse gas emissions pledges and a moderate sea level rise response, UK capital cities will experience between about 1 and 2 m of sea level rise by 2300, with continued rise beyond 2300. The storyline based on the upper end of the AR6 likely range sea level projections yields much larger values for UK capital cities that range between about 3 and 4 m at 2300. The two high-end scenarios, which are based on a recent study that showed accelerated sea level rise associated with ice sheet instability feedbacks, lead to sea level rise for UK capital cities at 2300 that range between about 8 m and 17 m. These magnitudes of rise would pose enormous challenges for UK coastal communities and are likely to be beyond the limits of adaptation at some locations.

The early spinup of the HadGEM3 coupled model displays large-scale biases in the Southern Ocean at an eddy-permitting ocean resolution: the subpolar gyres and Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) are too active, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport is too weak, and there are large-scale water mass biases on the Antarctic shelf and in the open ocean. Most of the biases persist for at least 100 years of the model spinup. This set of biases is largely absent with a non-eddying ocean model and reduced with an eddy-rich ocean model. We show that damping the gyres and the ASC in the eddy-permitting model, either by introducing a parameterization of baroclinic instability or by changing the lateral momentum boundary condition to increase bathymetric drag, acts to alleviate all the biases. This suggests that the fundamental issue in the eddy-permitting model may be to do with unresolved eddy processes and/or the representation of bathymetric drag on the flow. We investigate the structure of the biases in more detail and show that the eddy-permitting model has steep isopycnals near the Antarctic shelf slope, consistently with a strong ASC and reduced transport of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the shelf. However, across the region of the ACC jets, the eddy-permitting model has shallower isopycnal slopes than the other models, consistently with a weaker ACC transport and warm near-surface biases in the open ocean.

A new climate model, HadGEM3 N96ORCA1, is presented that is part of the GC3.1 configuration of HadGEM3. N96ORCA1 has a horizontal resolution of ~135 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean and requires an order of magnitude less computing power than its medium‐resolution counterpart, N216ORCA025, while retaining a high degree of performance traceability. Scientific performance is compared to both observations and the N216ORCA025 model. N96ORCA1 reproduces observed climate mean and variability almost as well as N216ORCA025. Patterns of biases are similar across the two models. In the northwest Atlantic, N96ORCA1 shows a cold surface bias of up to 6 K, typical of ocean models of this resolution. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (16 to 17 Sv) matches observations. In the Southern Ocean, a warm surface bias (up to 2 K) is smaller than in N216ORCA025 and linked to improved ocean circulation. Model El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are close to observations. Both the cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere (N96ORCA1) and the warm bias in the Southern Hemisphere (N216ORCA025) develop in the first few decades of the simulations. As in many comparable climate models, simulated interhemispheric gradients of top‐of‐atmosphere radiation are larger than observations suggest, with contributions from both hemispheres. HadGEM3 GC3.1 N96ORCA1 constitutes the physical core of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and will be used extensively in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), both as part of the UK Earth System Model and as a stand‐alone coupled climate model. Plain Language Summary In this article, a new version of the climate model currently used in the United Kingdom (HadGEM3) is presented and analyzed. The circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans is simulated on a relatively coarse spatial grid with a grid cell size of about 120 km. The advantage of using a coarse spatial grid is that less computing power (on a supercomputer) is needed compared to using a finer grid. This gives an opportunity to do many more simulations of the ways in which Earth's climate may evolve in the decades and centuries ahead. We have carefully compared a simulation of the climate around the year 2000 with climate observations from that time and with a simulation from the same model with a finer spatial grid. Our results show that our new, coarse‐grid version is representing the current climate reasonably well, for instance, with regards to climate variability in the tropics and major ocean currents. However, there are clear differences between the two models. In the coarse‐grid model, the ocean surface is too cold in the northwest Atlantic, while in the fine‐grid version it is too warm in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. We look into explanations for these inaccuracies. Key Points A low‐resolution, traceable version of the current Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM3 GC3.1 is presented The scientific performance is comparable to the medium‐resolution version, while requiring much less computational resources In the low‐resolution version the Southern Ocean warm bias is reduced, linked with a more realistic ocean circulation