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In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is being used worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. The impact of these measures has been inconsistent, with some regions rapidly nearing disease elimination and others seeing delayed peaks or nearly flat epidemic curves. Here we build a stochastic epidemic model to examine the effects of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission network structure on the outcomes of social distancing interventions. Our simulations show that long delays between the adoption of control measures and observed declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occur in many scenarios. We find that the strength of within-household transmission is a critical determinant of success, governing the timing and size of the epidemic peak, the rate of decline, individual risks of infection, and the success of partial relaxation measures. The structure of residual external connections, driven by workforce participation and essential businesses, interacts to determine outcomes. We suggest limited conditions under which the formation of household “bubbles” can be safe. These findings can improve future predictions of the timescale and efficacy of interventions needed to control second waves of COVID-19 as well as other similar outbreaks, and highlight the need for better quantification and control of household transmission.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread 1 – 4 . During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China 5 , 6 . Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking 7 . In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics. Analysis of spatial heterogeneity of crowding in China and Italy, together with COVID-19 case data, show that cities with higher crowding have longer epidemics and higher attack rates after the first epidemic wave.

Massive research efforts are now underway to develop a cure for HIV infection, allowing patients to discontinue lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). New latency-reversing agents (LRAs) may be able to purge the persistent reservoir of latent virus in resting memory CD4⁺ T cells, but the degree of reservoir reduction needed for cure remains unknown. Here we use a stochastic model of infection dynamics to estimate the efficacy of LRA needed to prevent viral rebound after ART interruption. We incorporate clinical data to estimate population-level parameter distributions and outcomes. Our findings suggest that ~2,000-fold reductions are required to permit a majority of patients to interrupt ART for 1 y without rebound and that rebound may occur suddenly after multiple years. Greater than 10,000-fold reductions may be required to prevent rebound altogether. Our results predict large variation in rebound times following LRA therapy, which will complicate clinical management. This model provides benchmarks for moving LRAs from the laboratory to the clinic and can aid in the design and interpretation of clinical trials. These results also apply to other interventions to reduce the latent reservoir and can explain the observed return of viremia after months of apparent cure in recent bone marrow transplant recipients and an immediately-treated neonate.

Antibiotic-resistant infections are a growing threat to human health, but basic features of the eco-evolutionary dynamics remain unexplained. Most prominently, there is no clear mechanism for the long-term coexistence of both drug-sensitive and resistant strains at intermediate levels, a ubiquitous pattern seen in surveillance data. Here we show that accounting for structured or spatially-heterogeneous host populations and variability in antibiotic consumption can lead to persistent coexistence over a wide range of treatment coverages, drug efficacies, costs of resistance, and mixing patterns. Moreover, this mechanism can explain other puzzling spatiotemporal features of drug-resistance epidemiology that have received less attention, such as large differences in the prevalence of resistance between geographical regions with similar antibiotic consumption or that neighbor one another. We find that the same amount of antibiotic use can lead to very different levels of resistance depending on how treatment is distributed in a transmission network. We also identify parameter regimes in which population structure alone cannot support coexistence, suggesting the need for other mechanisms to explain the epidemiology of antibiotic resistance. Our analysis identifies key features of host population structure that can be used to assess resistance risk and highlights the need to include spatial or demographic heterogeneity in models to guide resistance management.

The efficacy of antiretroviral therapy is significantly compromised by medication non-adherence. Long-acting enteral systems that can ease the burden of daily adherence have not yet been developed. Here we describe an oral dosage form composed of distinct drug–polymer matrices which achieved week-long systemic drug levels of the antiretrovirals dolutegravir, rilpivirine and cabotegravir in a pig. Simulations of viral dynamics and patient adherence patterns indicate that such systems would significantly reduce therapeutic failures and epidemiological modelling suggests that using such an intervention prophylactically could avert hundreds of thousands of new HIV cases. In sum, weekly administration of long-acting antiretrovirals via a novel oral dosage form is a promising intervention to help control the HIV epidemic worldwide. Poor adherence to daily antiretrovirals can significantly affect treatment efficacy, but oral long-acting antiretrovirals are currently lacking. Here, the authors develop a once-weekly oral dosage form for anti-HIV drugs, assess its pharmacokinetics in pigs, and model its impact on viral resistance and disease epidemics.

The latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4⁺ T cells is a major barrier to cure. Several lines of evidence suggest that the latent reservoir is maintained through cellular proliferation. Analysis of this proliferative process is complicated by the fact that most infected cells carry defective proviruses. Additional complications are that stimuli that drive T cell proliferation can also induce virus production from latently infected cells and productively infected cells have a short in vivo half-life. In this ex vivo study, we show that latently infected cells containing replication-competent HIV-1 can proliferate in response to T cell receptor agonists or cytokines that are known to induce homeostatic proliferation and that this can occur without virus production. Some cells that have proliferated in response to these stimuli can survive for 7 d while retaining the ability to produce virus. This finding supports the hypothesis that both antigen-driven and cytokine-induced proliferation may contribute to the stability of the latent reservoir. Sequencing of replication-competent proviruses isolated from patients at different time points confirmed the presence of expanded clones and demonstrated that while some clones harboring replication-competent virus persist longitudinally on a scale of years, others wax and wane. A similar pattern is observed in longitudinal sampling of residual viremia in patients. The observed patterns are not consistent with a continuous, cell-autonomous, proliferative process related to the HIV-1 integration site. The fact that the latent reservoir can bemaintained, in part, by cellular proliferation without viral reactivation poses challenges to cure.

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control. Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here, the authors model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical and applied urban settings.

Human populations are arranged in social networks that determine interactions and influence the spread of diseases, behaviours and ideas. We evaluate the spread of long-term emotional states across a social network. We introduce a novel form of the classical susceptible–infected–susceptible disease model which includes the possibility for ‘spontaneous’ (or ‘automatic’) infection, in addition to disease transmission (the SISa model). Using this framework and data from the Framingham Heart Study, we provide formal evidence that positive and negative emotional states behave like infectious diseases spreading across social networks over long periods of time. The probability of becoming content is increased by 0.02 per year for each content contact, and the probability of becoming discontent is increased by 0.04 per year per discontent contact. Our mathematical formalism allows us to derive various quantities from the data, such as the average lifetime of a contentment ‘infection’ (10 years) or discontentment ‘infection’ (5 years). Our results give insight into the transmissive nature of positive and negative emotional states. Determining to what extent particular emotions or behaviours are infectious is a promising direction for further research with important implications for social science, epidemiology and health policy. Our model provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviours, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.

Significance The evolution of drug resistance is a major health threat. In chronic infections with rapidly mutating pathogens—including HIV, tuberculosis, and hepatitis B and C viruses—multidrug resistance can cause even aggressive combination drug treatment to fail. Oftentimes, individual drugs within a combination do not penetrate equally to all infected regions of the body. Here we present a mathematical model suggesting that this imperfect penetration can dramatically increase the chance of treatment failure by creating regions where only one drug from a combination reaches a therapeutic concentration. The resulting single-drug compartments allow the pathogen to evolve resistance to each drug sequentially, rapidly causing multidrug resistance. More broadly, our model provides a quantitative framework for reasoning about trade-offs between aggressive and moderate drug therapies. Infections with rapidly evolving pathogens are often treated using combinations of drugs with different mechanisms of action. One of the major goal of combination therapy is to reduce the risk of drug resistance emerging during a patient’s treatment. Although this strategy generally has significant benefits over monotherapy, it may also select for multidrug-resistant strains, particularly during long-term treatment for chronic infections. Infections with these strains present an important clinical and public health problem. Complicating this issue, for many antimicrobial treatment regimes, individual drugs have imperfect penetration throughout the body, so there may be regions where only one drug reaches an effective concentration. Here we propose that mismatched drug coverage can greatly speed up the evolution of multidrug resistance by allowing mutations to accumulate in a stepwise fashion. We develop a mathematical model of within-host pathogen evolution under spatially heterogeneous drug coverage and demonstrate that even very small single-drug compartments lead to dramatically higher resistance risk. We find that it is often better to use drug combinations with matched penetration profiles, although there may be a trade-off between preventing eventual treatment failure due to resistance in this way and temporarily reducing pathogen levels systemically. Our results show that drugs with the most extensive distribution are likely to be the most vulnerable to resistance. We conclude that optimal combination treatments should be designed to prevent this spatial effective monotherapy. These results are widely applicable to diverse microbial infections including viruses, bacteria, and parasites.

Human behavior plays a crucial role in infectious disease transmission, yet traditional models often overlook or oversimplify this factor, limiting predictions of disease spread and the associated socioeconomic impacts. Here we introduce a feedback-informed epidemiological model that integrates human behavior with disease dynamics in a credible, tractable, and extendable manner. From economics, we incorporate a dynamic decision-making model where individuals assess the trade-off between disease risks and economic consequences, and then link this to a risk-stratified compartmental model of disease spread taken from epidemiology. In the unified framework, heterogeneous individuals make choices based on current and future payoffs, influencing their risk of infection and shaping population-level disease dynamics. As an example, we model disease-decision feedback during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the decision to participate in paid, in-person work was a major determinant of disease risk. Comparing the impacts of stylized policy options representing mandatory, incentivized/compensated, and voluntary work abstention, we find that accounting for disease-behavior feedback has a significant impact on the relative health and economic impacts of policies. Including two crucial dimensions of heterogeneity—health and economic vulnerability—the results highlight how inequities between risk groups can be exacerbated or alleviated by disease control measures. Importantly, we show that a policy of more stringent workplace testing can potentially slow virus spread and, surprisingly, increase labor supply since individuals otherwise inclined to remain at home to avoid infection perceive a safer workplace. In short, our framework permits the exploration of avenues whereby health and wealth need not always be at odds. This flexible and extendable modeling framework offers a powerful tool for understanding the interplay between human behavior and disease spread.