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High-efficacy therapies in multiple sclerosis are traditionally used after unsuccessful treatment with first-line disease modifying therapies. We hypothesised that early commencement of high-efficacy therapy would be associated with reduced long-term disability. We therefore aimed to compare long-term disability outcomes between patients who started high-efficacy therapies within 2 years of disease onset with those who started 4–6 years after disease onset. In this retrospective international observational study, we obtained data from the MSBase registry and the Swedish MS registry, which prospectively collect patient data that are specific to multiple sclerosis as part of routine clinical care. We identified adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with at least 6 years of follow-up since disease onset, and who started the high-efficacy therapy (rituximab, ocrelizumab, mitoxantrone, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab) either 0–2 years (early) or 4–6 years (late) after clinical disease onset. We matched patients in the early and late groups using propensity scores calculated on the basis of their baseline clinical and demographic data. The primary outcome was disability, measured with the Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS; an ordinal scale of 0–10, with higher scores indicating increased disability), at 6–10 years after disease onset, assessed with a linear mixed-effects model. We identified 6149 patients in the MSBase registry who had been given high-efficacy therapy, with data collected between Jan 1, 1975, and April 13, 2017, and 2626 patients in the Swedish MS Registry, with data collected between Dec 10, 1997, and Sept 16, 2019. Of whom, 308 in the MSBase registry and 236 in the Swedish MS registry were eligible for inclusion. 277 (51%) of 544 patients commenced therapy early and 267 (49%) commenced therapy late. For the primary analysis, we matched 213 patients in the early treatment group with 253 in the late treatment group. At baseline, the mean EDSS score was 2·2 (SD 1·2) in the early group and 2·1 (SD 1·2) in the late group. Median follow-up time for matched patients was 7·8 years (IQR 6·7–8·9). In the sixth year after disease onset, the mean EDSS score was 2·2 (SD 1·6) in the early group compared with 2·9 (SD 1·8) in the late group (p<0·0001). This difference persisted throughout each year of follow-up until the tenth year after disease onset (mean EDSS score 2·3 [SD 1·8] vs 3·5 [SD 2·1]; p<0·0001), with a difference between groups of −0·98 (95% CI −1·51 to −0·45; p<0·0001, adjusted for proportion of time on any disease-modifying therapy) across the 6–10 year follow-up period. High-efficacy therapy commenced within 2 years of disease onset is associated with less disability after 6–10 years than when commenced later in the disease course. This finding can inform decisions regarding optimal sequence and timing of multiple sclerosis therapy. National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and MS Society UK.

Key Points The repertoire of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has broadened greatly in the past decade Evidence-based recommendations from randomized clinical trials are insufficient to guide choices between most available MS drugs The combination of increasing worldwide availability of and access to large MS registries and databases and the growing ability to share and analyse large datasets is enabling real-world observational studies to be conducted Observational real-world studies are providing insights into predictors of MS treatment response, comparative effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies, and long-term treatment effectiveness that is useful for directing daily clinical practice Several new statistical methods are available, and continue to evolve, to minimize biases and limitations of real-world observational studies, thereby optimizing their validity and reliability In future, datasets from individual MS databases and registries should be aggregated into big data algorithms to develop new tools that will enable the implementation of personalized medicine Real-world observational studies have the potential to answer questions about multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment that randomized controlled trials cannot. Trojano and colleagues discuss the pitfalls and necessary safeguards in observational studies, and the insights that such studies have provided into treatment decisions for patients with MS. The complexity of multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment means that doctors and decision-makers need the best available evidence to make the best decisions for patient care. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are accepted as the gold standard for assessing the efficacy and safety of any new drug, but conclusions of these trials do not always aid in daily decision-making processes. Indeed, RCTs are usually conducted in ideal conditions, so can measure efficacy only in restricted and unrepresentative populations. In the past decade, a growing number of MS databases and registries have started to produce long-term outcome data from large cohorts of patients with MS treated with disease-modifying therapies in real-world settings. Such observational studies are addressing issues that are otherwise difficult or impossible to study. In this Review, we focus on the most recently published observational studies designed to identify predictors of poor outcome and treatment response or failure, and to evaluate the relative and long-term effectiveness of currently used MS treatments. We also outline the statistical approaches that are most commonly used to reduce bias and limitations in these studies, and the challenges associated with the use of 'big MS data' to facilitate the implementation of personalized medicine in MS.

Blood Neurofilament light chain (NfL) has been suggested as a promising biomarker in several neurological conditions. Since blood NfL is the consequence of leaked NfL from the cerebrospinal fluid, differences in individuals’ Body Mass Index (BMI) or blood volume (BV) might affect its correlation to other biomarkers and disease outcomes. Here, we investigated the correlation between plasma NfL, BMI, and BV in 662 controls and 2,586 multiple sclerosis cases. We found a significant negative correlation between plasma NfL, BMI/BV in both groups. Our results highlight the potential confounding effect of BMI/BV on associations between blood NfL and disease outcomes.

Gender differences in earnings exist worldwide. Gender segregation or familial status have been previously stated as possible explanations for these differences as well as health differences between women and men. Women are diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) as twice much as men. Moreover, MS limitations may affect the work capacity of people with MS (PwMS) implying a reduction in their earnings. We aimed to explore gender differences in earnings among people with MS and without MS and between groups of those diagnosed while also considering types of occupation and family composition, and how these possible differences relate to sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP). We conducted a population-based cohort study in Sweden with microdata from several nationwide registers. PwMS aged 19–57 years (n = 5128) living in Sweden and 31,767 matched references from the population without MS. Outcome measures included earnings, number of SA and DP days combined (SA/DP). A four-way weighted least-squares analysis of covariance was performed to explore the associations of gender, MS, type of occupation, and family composition with earnings. Risk of SA and DP days was assessed with logistic regression. Overall, and across all occupations, women earned less than men, although less so among managers with MS. Annual gender differences in earnings were larger if living with children at home compared to not living with children. Nevertheless, these gender differences decreased after adjusting for SA/DP, both among PwMS and references. PwMS had considerably more SA/DP days than references. Women also had more SA/DP days than men. We observed that working women earned less than working men, and that gender differences in earnings were present in all occupations, although less evident among PwMS in managerial positions. The combination of gender, occupation, family composition, and MS, was associated with earnings, even when adjusting for the number of SA and DP days.

Background Machine learning models for repeated measurements are limited. Using topological data analysis (TDA), we present a classifier for repeated measurements which samples from the data space and builds a network graph based on the data topology. A machine learning model with cross-validation is then applied for classification. When test this on three case studies, accuracy exceeds an alternative support vector machine (SVM) voting model in most situations tested, with additional benefits such as reporting data subsets with high purity along with feature values. Results For 100 examples of 3 different tree species, the model reached 80% classification accuracy after 30 datapoints, which was improved to 90% after increased sampling to 400 datapoints. The alternative SVM classifier achieved a maximum accuracy of 68.7%. Using data from 100 examples from each class of 6 different random point processes, the classifier achieved 96.8% accuracy, vastly outperforming the SVM. Using two outcomes in neuron spiking data, the TDA classifier was similarly accurate to the SVM in one case (both converged to 97.8% accuracy), but was outperformed in the other (relative accuracies 79.8% and 92.2%, respectively). Conclusions This algorithm and software can be beneficial for repeated measurement data common in biological sciences, as both an accurate classifier and a feature selection tool.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with immunoglobulin gamma (IgG) oligoclonal bands (OCB) in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) have different genetic backgrounds and brain MRI features compared to those without. In this study, we aimed to determine whether CSF-OCB status is associated with long-term disability outcomes. We used Swedish MS register data on clinically definite MS patients with known OCB status. Date of birth, age at MS onset, and time to sustained Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) milestones 3, 4, and 6; time to conversion to secondary progressive (SP) MS, sex, and immunomodulatory treatment (IMTs) duration were collected. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to investigate the association between OCB status and risk of reaching each milestone. The OCB-positive group reached disability milestones at an earlier time and younger age. OCB-positivity significantly increased the risk of reaching EDSS 3.0 (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.48, P < 0.001) and 4.0 (HR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.63, P < 0.001). The OCB-positive group had a 20% higher risk of conversion to SPMS. CSF-OCB presence is associated with higher risk of reaching EDSS milestones and conversion to SPMS. Our findings suggest higher disease modifying effect of OCB presence in the early inflammatory stages of MS .

Tobacco smoke is an important modifiable environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. The population attributable fraction (AF) of MS due to smoking can be used to assess the contribution of smoking to the risk of MS development. We conducted a matched case-control study, including individuals with MS and population-based controls. Overall, sex- and genetic risk score-stratified AF due to smoking were calculated by fitting logistic regression models. We included 9,419 individuals with MS and 9,419 population-based matched controls. At the time of MS onset 44.1% of persons with MS and 35.9% of controls ever regularly smoked of which 38.1% and 29.2% were still smoking. The overall AF was 13.1% (95%CI: 10.7 to 15.4). The AF was 10.6% (95%CI: 7.4 to 13.7) in females and 19.1% (95%CI: 13.1 to 25.1) in males. The AF was 0.6% (95%CI: 0.0 to 2) in ex-smokers. In those having human leucocyte antigen (HLA) and non-HLA risk scores above the median levels of controls, the AF was 11.4% (95%CI: 6.8 to 15.9) and 12% (95%CI: 7.7 to 16.3), respectively. The AF was 17.6% (95%CI: 10.2 to 24.9) and 18.6% (95%CI: 5.5 to 31.6) in those with HLA and non-HLA risk scores below the median levels in controls, respectively. We noticed a decline in AF in recent birth cohorts. This study indicates that at least 13% of cases of MS could be prevented through the avoidance of tobacco smoking. Considering the prevalence of MS, this represents a very large group of people in absolute number.

Background: Levels of CXCL13, a potent B-cell chemoattractant, are elevated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) during multiple sclerosis (MS) and are associated with markers of MS activity. Levels decrease upon effective treatments. Objective: Here we validate the potential role of CSF CXCL13 as a biomarker for aspects of MS in a large amount of clinical material, the majority collected at early diagnostic work-up. Methods: CXCL13 was measured by ELISA in 837 subjects: relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS; n = 323), secondary progressive MS (SPMS; n = 40), primary progressive MS (PPMS; n = 24), clinically isolated syndrome (CIS; n = 79), other neurological diseases (ONDs; n = 181), ONDs with signs of inflammation or viral/bacterial infections (iONDs; n = 176) and healthy controls (n = 14). Results: Subjects with viral/bacterial infections had extremely high CXCL13 levels compared to all included groups (p < 0.0001). CXCL13 was otherwise significantly higher in MS compared to the remaining controls (p < 0.0001), and CIS (p < 0.01). A significant and positive correlation between CXCL13 and relapse rate, the results obtained for the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and the number of lesions detected by MRI was demonstrated. CXCL13 was increased in CIS conversion to clinically definite MS (p < 0.001). Oligoclonal immunoglobulin band (OCB)-positive CIS or MS had significantly increased CXCL13 levels compared to OCB-negative CIS or MS (p < 0.001 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Conclusion: CXCL13 was associated with disease exacerbations and unfavourable prognosis in RRMS. Increased CXCL13 was not specific for MS since subjects with viral/bacterial infections exhibited even higher levels. High levels predicted CIS conversion to MS. We suggest that measurement of CSF CXCL13 can be part of the armamentarium in the diagnostic and prognostic work-up in MS and be of help in future treatment decisions.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic led to vast changes in working life and conditions in which we work. These changes may affect people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) differently. We aimed to describe the working situation of PwMS during the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic’s impact on their working lives. Methods All individuals aged 20–50 listed in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry were invited to participate in an online survey in 2021. Closed and open-ended responses linked to individual-level register data were used in this exploratory mixed-methods study. Differences in the proportions reporting specific impacts were assessed with chi-square tests by sex, MS severity, education, and profession. The open-ended answers were analysed through content analysis. Results Over 8500 PwMS were invited (52% response rate). We included the 3887 respondents who answered questions about the impact of the pandemic on working life. Most (93.7%) reported being in paid work. An impact of the ongoing pandemic to one’s daily occupation was reported by 26.2%, with different characteristics observed across the impacts. Four categories of type of answers were identified from the open-ended answers: Direct impact on one’s occupation, Disclosing or concealing MS in the workplace, Worry and uncertainty, and Broader impact to life situation. Conclusions PwMS navigated the pandemic by interrupting as well as continuing their working lives. Many PwMS reported that the pandemic did not affect their work situation. However, the reported impacts differed among the participants and a sense of uncertainty and worry was often underlying their statements. Lessons from the pandemic may support future work participation.

Neutralizing anti-drug antibodies (NAbs) to interferon beta (IFNβ) develop in up to 47% of multiple sclerosis (MS) treated patients inhibiting treatment effect of IFNβ. However, the long-term effect of NAbs remain unknown. To investigate the long-term consequences of high titer NAbs to IFNβ on disease activity and progression in MS patients. An observational study including data from all IFNβ treated relapsing remitting MS patients with sufficient NAb test results from the Swedish MS registry. Patients were classified into either confirmed 'high titer' or 'persistent negative' groups and analyzed for differences in disease activity and progression over time. A total of 197 high-titer and 2907 persistent negative patients with 19969.6 follow up years of data were included. High titer NAbs were associated with a higher degree of disease activity at baseline. However, even when accounting for this, the presence of high titer NAbs were also associated with higher disease activity during IFNβ treatment. This persisted even after the next DMT start, suggesting that earlier high titers may partially reduce the effect of later treatments. No difference was found in confirmed disability progression. High titer NAbs to IFNβ are associated with higher disease activity, persisting even after IFNβ discontinuation or switch. These results support use of highly efficient treatment earlier in patients with active disease, to avoid these complications.