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Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state-space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as 'cryptic poaching'. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching.

Efforts to restore ecosystems often focus on reintroducing apex predators to re-establish coevolved relationships among predators, herbivores and plants. The preponderance of evidence for indirect effects of predators on terrestrial plant communities comes from ecosystems where predators have been removed. Far less is known about the consequences of their restoration. The effects of removal and restoration are unlikely to be symmetrical because removing predators can create feedbacks that reinforce the effects of predator loss. Observational studies have suggested that the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park initiated dramatic restoration of riparian ecosystems by releasing willows from excessive browsing by elk. Here, we present results from a decade-long experiment in Yellowstone showing that moderating browsing alone was not sufficient to restore riparian zones along small streams. Instead, restoration of willow communities depended on removing browsing and restoring hydrological conditions that prevailed before the removal of wolves. The 70-year absence of predators from the ecosystem changed the disturbance regime in a way that was not reversed by predator reintroduction. We conclude that predator restoration may not quickly repair effects of predator removal in ecosystems.

Statistical methods emphasizing formal hypothesis testing have dominated the analyses used by ecologists to gain insight from data. Here, we review alternatives to hypothesis testing including techniques for parameter estimation and model selection using likelihood and Bayesian techniques. These methods emphasize evaluation of weight of evidence for multiple hypotheses, multimodel inference, and use of prior information in analysis. We provide a tutorial for maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters and model selection using information theoretics, including a brief treatment of procedures for model comparison, model averaging, and use of data from multiple sources. We discuss the advantages of likelihood estimation, Bayesian analysis, and meta-analysis as ways to accumulate understanding across multiple studies. These statistical methods hold promise for new insight in ecology by encouraging thoughtful model building as part of inquiry, providing a unified framework for the empirical analysis of theoretical models, and by facilitating the formal accumulation of evidence bearing on fundamental questions.

A central challenge in ecology is to understand the interplay of internal and external controls on the growth of populations. We examined the effects of temporal variation in weather and spatial variation in vegetation on the strength of density dependence in populations of large herbivores. We fit three subsets of the model$\\text{ln}(N_{t})=a+(1+b)\\times \\text{ln}(N_{t-1}+c\\times \\text{ln}(N_{t-2})$to five time series of estimates ($N_{t}$) of abundance of ungulates in the Rocky Mountains, USA. The strength of density dependence was estimated by the magnitude of the coefficient b. We regressed the estimates of b on indices of temporal heterogeneity in weather and spatial heterogeneity in resources. The 95% posterior intervals of the slopes of these regressions showed that temporal heterogeneity strengthened density-dependent feedbacks to population growth, whereas spatial heterogeneity weakened them. This finding offers the first empirical evidence that density dependence responds in different ways to spatial heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity.

Sustaining wildlife and pastoral communities in savannas worldwide depends on understanding how landscapes provide for their needs. The composite effects of multiple forces shape herbivore distribution in savannas. We propose a model describing the distribution of animal density along two resource utilization gradients. The model estimates where animals are most abundant in relation to water and pastoral settlements and how strongly they respond to these gradients, as indicated by the location of peak densities in landscape space and degree of attraction of animals to these locations. We use the model to show that distances to water and settlements interactively influence the distribution of wild herbivore and livestock densities in a semiarid protected and pastoral African savanna. The herbivores were distributed along distance from water and settlement gradients according to four distinct patterns, suggesting the preponderance of constrained foraging. The impact of distance to water and settlement on herbivore distribution was modified by land use type and temporal variation in rainfall, and also varied among different species of wildlife and between wildlife and livestock. Wild herbivores peaked in density farther from settlements than from water and were much more strongly attracted to their points of maximum density in the pastoral than in the protected land. The point of maximum density was farther removed from settlements in the protected than in the pastoral landscape where the wild herbivores were compressed into smaller suitable habitats. The interaction between distances from settlement and water produced discernible spatial segregation among species in terms of the locations of their points of maximum density, presumably to minimize interspecific competition for forage and water. Settlements exerted relatively stronger influence on livestock distribution than water, resulting in densities that declined exponentially away from settlements at all distances from water.

It is widely believed that wild and domestic herbivores have modified the structure and composition of arid and semi-arid plant communities of western North America, but these beliefs have rarely been tested in long-term, well-replicated studies. We examined the effects of removing large herbivores from semi-arid shrublands for 40-50 years using 17 fenced exclosures in western Colorado, USA. Shrub cover was greater (F=5.87, P=0.0020) and cover (F=3.01, P=0.0601) and frequency (F=3.89, P=0.0211) of forbs was less inside the exclosures (protected) relative to grazed plots. However, we found no significant effects (minimum P=0.18) of protection from grazing on cover or frequency of grasses, biotic crusts, or bare soil. Although mean species richness and diversity were similar between treatments, protected areas had much higher dominance by fewer species, primarily sagebrush. Exclusion of herbivores changed the relationship between species richness and evenness. Consistent with theoretical expectations, species evenness was positively correlated with richness in protected plots (r ²=0.54). However, contrary to theory, evenness and richness were inversely related in grazed plots (r ² adjacent=0.72, r ² distant=0.84). We suggest that these differences resulted because grazing acts as a stressor promoting facilitative relationships between plant species that might compete for resources in the absence of grazing. We conclude that exclusion of grazing in the sites we studied caused minor changes in cover and diversity of herbaceous plants, but caused a clear increase in the cover of shrubs. Importantly, the exclusion of ungulates changed the relationship between evenness and richness.

The question of how much time a foraging herbivore should spend in a patch of food poses a central challenge in classical foraging theory. However, there remains uncertainty about the relevance of the patch paradigm to foraging decisions by large herbivores. This paper examines evidence for successfully predicting and quantifying patch departure decisions for large mammalian herbivores foraging across several spatial and temporal scales. Departure decisions at fine scales are influenced by tradeoffs between maximizing intake rate and food quality. Classical models for departure decisions at larger spatial scales, particularly the marginal value theorem, appear inadequate. We advocate exploring alternative models for predictions of residence time at the patch scale.

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications. Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody-plant communities are key components in multiple-trophic-level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine-grained beaver pond sediments and coarse-grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate-driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20-30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver-pond and willow-mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.

Adaptive management has emerged as the prevailing approach for combining environmental research and management to advance science and policy. Adaptive management, as originally formulated by Carl Walters in 1986, depends on the use of Bayesian models to provide a framework to accumulate knowledge. The emergence of ecological forecasting using the Bayesian framework has provided robust tools and supports a new approach to informing adaptive management, which can be particularly useful in developing policy for managing infectious disease in wildlife. We used the potential infection of elk populations with chronic wasting disease in the Jackson Valley of Wyoming and the National Elk Refuge as a model system to show how Bayesian forecasting can support adaptive management in anticipation of management challenges. The core of our approach resembles the sex‐ and age‐structured, discrete time models used to support management decisions on elk harvest throughout western North America. Our model differs by including stages for CWD‐infected and unaffected animals. We used data on population counts, sex and age classification, and CWD testing, as well as results from prior research, in a Bayesian statistical framework to predict model parameters and the number of animals in each age, sex, and disease stage over time. Initial forecasts suggested CWD may reach a mean prevalence in the population of 12%, but uncertainty in this forecast is large and we cannot rule out a mean forecasted prevalence as high as 20%. Using recruitment rates observed during the last two decades, the model predicted that a CWD prevalence of 7% in females would cause the population growth rate (λ) to drop below 1, resulting in population declines even when female harvest was zero. The primary value of this ecological forecasting approach is to provide a framework to assimilate data with understanding of disease processes to enable continuous improvement in understanding the ecology of CWD and its management.