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Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been among the leading advances in biomedicine in recent years. As a proxy of genetic liability, PRSs are utilised across multiple fields and applications. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been developed to optimise their predictive accuracy, these typically distil genetic liability to a single number based on aggregation of an individual’s genome-wide risk alleles. This results in a key loss of information about an individual’s genetic profile, which could be critical given the functional sub-structure of the genome and the heterogeneity of complex disease. In this manuscript, we introduce a ‘pathway polygenic’ paradigm of disease risk, in which multiple genetic liabilities underlie complex diseases, rather than a single genome-wide liability. We describe a method and accompanying software, PRSet, for computing and analysing pathway-based PRSs, in which polygenic scores are calculated across genomic pathways for each individual. We evaluate the potential of pathway PRSs in two distinct ways, creating two major sections: (1) In the first section, we benchmark PRSet as a pathway enrichment tool, evaluating its capacity to capture GWAS signal in pathways. We find that for target sample sizes of >10,000 individuals, pathway PRSs have similar power for evaluating pathway enrichment as leading methods MAGMA and LD score regression, with the distinct advantage of providing individual-level estimates of genetic liability for each pathway -opening up a range of pathway-based PRS applications, (2) In the second section, we evaluate the performance of pathway PRSs for disease stratification. We show that using a supervised disease stratification approach, pathway PRSs (computed by PRSet) outperform two standard genome-wide PRSs (computed by C+T and lassosum) for classifying disease subtypes in 20 of 21 scenarios tested. As the definition and functional annotation of pathways becomes increasingly refined, we expect pathway PRSs to offer key insights into the heterogeneity of complex disease and treatment response, to generate biologically tractable therapeutic targets from polygenic signal, and, ultimately, to provide a powerful path to precision medicine.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified ~20 melanoma susceptibility loci, most of which are not functionally characterized. Here we report an approach integrating massively-parallel reporter assays (MPRA) with cell-type-specific epigenome and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) to identify susceptibility genes/variants from multiple GWAS loci. From 832 high-LD variants, we identify 39 candidate functional variants from 14 loci displaying allelic transcriptional activity, a subset of which corroborates four colocalizing melanocyte cis -eQTL genes. Among these, we further characterize the locus encompassing the HIV-1 restriction gene, MX2 (Chr21q22.3), and validate a functional intronic variant, rs398206. rs398206 mediates the binding of the transcription factor, YY1, to increase MX2 levels, consistent with the cis -eQTL of MX2 in primary human melanocytes. Melanocyte-specific expression of human MX2 in a zebrafish model demonstrates accelerated melanoma formation in a BRAF V600E background. Our integrative approach streamlines GWAS follow-up studies and highlights a pleiotropic function of MX2 in melanoma susceptibility. There are more than 20 known melanoma susceptibility genes. Here, using a massively parallel reporter assay, the authors identify risk-associated variants that alter gene transcription, and demonstrate that expression of one such gene, MX2 , leads to the promotion of melanoma in a zebrafish model.

Testing one SNP at a time does not fully realise the potential of genome-wide association studies to identify multiple causal variants, which is a plausible scenario for many complex diseases. We show that simultaneous analysis of the entire set of SNPs from a genome-wide study to identify the subset that best predicts disease outcome is now feasible, thanks to developments in stochastic search methods. We used a Bayesian-inspired penalised maximum likelihood approach in which every SNP can be considered for additive, dominant, and recessive contributions to disease risk. Posterior mode estimates were obtained for regression coefficients that were each assigned a prior with a sharp mode at zero. A non-zero coefficient estimate was interpreted as corresponding to a significant SNP. We investigated two prior distributions and show that the normal-exponential-gamma prior leads to improved SNP selection in comparison with single-SNP tests. We also derived an explicit approximation for type-I error that avoids the need to use permutation procedures. As well as genome-wide analyses, our method is well-suited to fine mapping with very dense SNP sets obtained from re-sequencing and/or imputation. It can accommodate quantitative as well as case-control phenotypes, covariate adjustment, and can be extended to search for interactions. Here, we demonstrate the power and empirical type-I error of our approach using simulated case-control data sets of up to 500 K SNPs, a real genome-wide data set of 300 K SNPs, and a sequence-based dataset, each of which can be analysed in a few hours on a desktop workstation.

The genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach has discovered hundreds of genetic variants associated with diseases and quantitative traits. However, despite clinical overlap and statistical correlation between many phenotypes, GWAS are generally performed one-phenotype-at-a-time. Here we compare the performance of modelling multiple phenotypes jointly with that of the standard univariate approach. We introduce a new method and software, MultiPhen, that models multiple phenotypes simultaneously in a fast and interpretable way. By performing ordinal regression, MultiPhen tests the linear combination of phenotypes most associated with the genotypes at each SNP, and thus potentially captures effects hidden to single phenotype GWAS. We demonstrate via simulation that this approach provides a dramatic increase in power in many scenarios. There is a boost in power for variants that affect multiple phenotypes and for those that affect only one phenotype. While other multivariate methods have similar power gains, we describe several benefits of MultiPhen over these. In particular, we demonstrate that other multivariate methods that assume the genotypes are normally distributed, such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and MANOVA, can have highly inflated type-1 error rates when testing case-control or non-normal continuous phenotypes, while MultiPhen produces no such inflation. To test the performance of MultiPhen on real data we applied it to lipid traits in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966). In these data MultiPhen discovers 21% more independent SNPs with known associations than the standard univariate GWAS approach, while applying MultiPhen in addition to the standard approach provides 37% increased discovery. The most associated linear combinations of the lipids estimated by MultiPhen at the leading SNPs accurately reflect the Friedewald Formula, suggesting that MultiPhen could be used to refine the definition of existing phenotypes or uncover novel heritable phenotypes.

The Kobayashi score (KS) predicts intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Japanese children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and has been used to select patients for early corticosteroid treatment. We tested the ability of the KS to predict IVIG resistance and coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in 78 children treated for KD in our UK centre. 19/59 children were IVIG non-responsive. This was not predicted by a high KS (11/19 IVIG non-responders, compared with 26/40 responders, had a score ≥4; p=0.77). CAA were not predicted by KS (12/20 children with CAA vs 25/39 with normal echo had a score ≥4; p=0.78). Low albumin and haemoglobin, and high C-reactive protein were significantly associated with CAA. The KS does not predict IVIG resistance or CAA in our population. This highlights the need for biomarkers to identify children at increased risk of CAA, and to select patients for anti-inflammatory treatment in addition to IVIG.

Background Detection of genomic inversions remains challenging. Many existing methods primarily target inzversions with a non repetitive breakpoint, leaving inverted repeat (IR) mediated non-allelic homologous recombination (NAHR) inversions largely unexplored. Result We present npInv, a novel tool specifically for detecting and genotyping NAHR inversion using long read sub-alignment of long read sequencing data. We benchmark npInv with other tools in both simulation and real data. We use npInv to generate a whole-genome inversion map for NA12878 consisting of 30 NAHR inversions (of which 15 are novel), including all previously known NAHR mediated inversions in NA12878 with flanking IR less than 7kb. Our genotyping accuracy on this dataset was 94%. We used PCR to confirm the presence of two of these novel inversions. We show that there is a near linear relationship between the length of flanking IR and the minimum inversion size, without inverted repeats. Conclusion The application of npInv shows high accuracy in both simulation and real data. The results give deeper insight into understanding inversion.

Here we present BridgePRS, a novel Bayesian polygenic risk score (PRS) method that leverages shared genetic effects across ancestries to increase PRS portability. We evaluate BridgePRS via simulations and real UK Biobank data across 19 traits in individuals of African, South Asian and East Asian ancestry, using both UK Biobank and Biobank Japan genome-wide association study summary statistics; out-of-cohort validation is performed in the Mount Sinai (New York) Bio Me biobank. BridgePRS is compared with the leading alternative, PRS-CSx, and two other PRS methods. Simulations suggest that the performance of BridgePRS relative to PRS-CSx increases as uncertainty increases: with lower trait heritability, higher polygenicity and greater between-population genetic diversity; and when causal variants are not present in the data. In real data, BridgePRS has a 61% larger average R 2 than PRS-CSx in out-of-cohort prediction of African ancestry samples in Bio Me ( P  = 6 × 10 −5 ). BridgePRS is a computationally efficient, user-friendly and powerful approach for PRS analyses in non-European ancestries. A powerful Bayesian method, BridgePRS, leverages shared genetic effects across ancestries to increase polygenic risk score portability in non-European populations.

Background Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis that mainly affects children under 5 years of age. Up to 30% of patients develop coronary artery abnormalities, which are reduced with early treatment. Timely diagnosis of KD is challenging but may become more straightforward with the recent discovery of a whole-blood host response classifier that discriminates KD patients from patients with other febrile conditions. Here, we bridged this microarray-based classifier to a clinically applicable quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay: the Kawasaki Disease Gene Expression Profiling (KiDs-GEP) classifier. Methods We designed and optimized a qRT-PCR assay and applied it to a subset of samples previously used for the classifier discovery to reweight the original classifier. Results The performance of the KiDs-GEP classifier was comparable to the original classifier with a cross-validated area under the ROC curve of 0.964 [95% CI: 0.924–1.00] vs 0.992 [95% CI: 0.978–1.00], respectively. Both classifiers demonstrated similar trends over various disease conditions, with the clearest distinction between individuals diagnosed with KD vs viral infections. Conclusion We successfully bridged the microarray-based classifier into the KiDs-GEP classifier, a more rapid and more cost-efficient qRT-PCR assay, bringing a diagnostic test for KD closer to the hospital clinical laboratory. Impact A diagnostic test is needed for Kawasaki disease and is currently not available. We describe the development of a One-Step multiplex qRT-PCR assay and the subsequent modification (i.e., bridging) of the microarray-based host response classifier previously described by Wright et al. The bridged KiDs-GEP classifier performs well in discriminating Kawasaki disease patients from febrile controls. This host response clinical test for Kawasaki disease can be adapted to the hospital clinical laboratory.

Ancestry informative markers (AIMs) are genetic loci showing alleles with large frequency differences between populations. AIMs can be used to estimate biogeographical ancestry at the level of the population, subgroup (e.g. cases and controls) and individual. Ancestry estimates at both the subgroup and individual level can be directly instructive regarding the genetics of the phenotypes that differ qualitatively or in frequency between populations. These estimates can provide a compelling foundation for the use of admixture mapping (AM) methods to identify the genes underlying these traits. We present details of a panel of 34 AIMs and demonstrate how such studies can proceed, by using skin pigmentation as a model phenotype. We have genotyped these markers in two population samples with primarily African ancestry, viz. African Americans from Washington D.C. and an African Caribbean sample from Britain, and in a sample of European Americans from Pennsylvania. In the two African population samples, we observed significant correlations between estimates of individual ancestry and skin pigmentation as measured by reflectometry (R(2)=0.21, P<0.0001 for the African-American sample and R(2)=0.16, P<0.0001 for the British African-Caribbean sample). These correlations confirm the validity of the ancestry estimates and also indicate the high level of population structure related to admixture, a level that characterizes these populations and that is detectable by using other tests to identify genetic structure. We have also applied two methods of admixture mapping to test for the effects of three candidate genes (TYR, OCA2, MC1R) on pigmentation. We show that TYR and OCA2 have measurable effects on skin pigmentation differences between the west African and west European parental populations. This work indicates that it is possible to estimate the individual ancestry of a person based on DNA analysis with a reasonable number of well-defined genetic markers. The implications and applications of ancestry estimates in biomedical research are discussed.

Simulation is an invaluable tool for investigating the effects of various population genetics modeling assumptions on resulting patterns of genetic diversity, and for assessing the performance of statistical techniques, for example those designed to detect and measure the genomic effects of selection. It is also used to investigate the effectiveness of various design options for genetic association studies. Backward-in-time simulation methods are computationally efficient and have become widely used since their introduction in the 1980s. The forward-in-time approach has substantial advantages in terms of accuracy and modeling flexibility, but at greater computational cost. We have developed flexible and efficient simulation software and a rescaling technique to aid computational efficiency that together allow the simulation of sequence-level data over large genomic regions in entire diploid populations under various scenarios for demography, mutation, selection, and recombination, the latter including hotspots and gene conversion. Our forward evolution of genomic regions (FREGENE) software is freely available from www.ebi.ac.uk/projects/BARGEN together with an ancillary program to generate phenotype labels, either binary or quantitative. In this article we discuss limitations of coalescent-based simulation, introduce the rescaling technique that makes large-scale forward-in-time simulation feasible, and demonstrate the utility of various features of FREGENE, many not previously available.