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River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion 1 – 3 . However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains—25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming 4 has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise 5 , however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally. A global study of river deltas shows a net increase in delta area by about 54 km 2  yr −1 over the past 30 years, in part due to deforestation-induced sediment delivery increase.

Channel geometry in tidally influenced river deltas can show a mixed scaling behavior between that of river and tidal channel networks, as the channel forming discharge is both of river and tidal origin. We present a method of analysis to quantify the tidal signature on delta morphology, by extending the hydraulic geometry concept originally developed for river channel networks to distributary channels subject to tides. Based on results from bathymetric surveys, a systematic analysis is made of the distributary channels in the Mahakam Delta (East Kalimantan, Indonesia). Results from a finite element numerical model are used to analyze the spatial variation of river and tidal discharges throughout the delta. The channel geometry of the fluvial distributary network scales with bifurcation order, until about halfway the radial distance from the delta apex to the sea. In the seaward part of the delta, distributary channels resemble funnel shaped estuarine channels. The break in morphology, which splits the delta into river‐ and tide‐dominated parts, coincides with a break in the ratio between tidal to fluvial discharges. Downstream hydraulic geometry exponents of the cross‐sectional area show a transition from the landward part to the seaward part of the delta. The numerical simulations show that the tidal impact on river discharge division at bifurcations increases with the bifurcation order, and that the variation of river discharge throughout the network is largely affected by the tides. The tidal influence is reflected by the systematic variation of downstream hydraulic geometry exponents. Key Points Hydraulic geometry concept applied to a mixed river‐tide dominated delta River‐dominated part of a channel network has a consistent hydraulic geometry Tide‐dominated channels impacted by nonlinear river‐tide interactions

In rivers worldwide, multiple scales of dunes coexist. It is unknown how the larger, primary dunes interact with secondary bedforms that are superimposed. We test the hypothesis that streamwise variability in the sediment flux inferred from the downstream migration of secondary bedforms explains migration of the host dune, based on bathymetric data from a lowland, sand‐bedded river. Results indicate that transport estimated from secondary bedform migration increases along the host dune stoss, eroding the stoss slope. When the superimposed bedforms disintegrate at the primary lee slopes, results indicate that all sediment transport associated to secondary bedform migration is arrested in the lee of the host dune, explaining migration of the host dune. When secondary dunes persist however, only part of the sediments transport linked to secondary dunes contributes to the migration of the host dune. This study gives novel insight into the fundamental mechanisms controlling the kinematics of compound dunes. Plain Language Summary Dunes are undulating features that can develop on a sandy river bed. They migrate downstream as a result of sediments moving from the stoss, the upstream facing slope of the dune, to the lee, the downstream slope of the dune. Sometimes, multiple scales of dunes coexist, where trains of small dunes travel over larger dunes. In this study we investigate how two dune scales interact and how they contribute to the downstream transport of bed sediments. This is done based on a series of field campaigns in the River Waal. The results indicate that migrating secondary dunes contribute to the displacement of the host dune, the dune over which they migrating. In some cases, secondary dunes travel over the host dune stoss and disintegrate at the host dune lee, depositing sediment there. In other cases, secondary dunes travel over the full length of the host dune toward the next, downstream dune. In this case, part of the sediments transport linked to the secondary dunes contributes to the downstream displacement of the host dune, and part of the sediments are transported to the next primary dune. Key Points Secondary bedforms are omnipresent and are key to understanding primary dune behavior Sediment transport rates linked to migration of superimposed river bedforms increase over the host dune stoss and decrease over the lee side Secondary bedforms control migration of the host dune, both when they persist over the host dune and when they disintegrate at the lee side

The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is one of the world’s largest river-tidal systems with rapidly changing hydrology and morphology following the construction of multiple dams. The effects of dam construction may extend to the region close to the coast, where channel stability depends on the asymmetry of the tide. Here, we focus on the possible effects of changing discharge regimes on tidal asymmetry in the YRE. Specifically, we focus on the difference in duration between ebb and flood, quantified as tidal duration asymmetry, because it has strong implications for residual sediment transport and can be derived from available water level data. To cope with nonstationary tides under the influence of a time-varying river discharge, a nonstationary harmonic analysis tool (NS_TIDE) is applied to explore the spatiotemporal variations in tidal duration asymmetry, under the influence of different combinations of tidal constituents. Tidal duration asymmetry initially increases, then slightly decreases, in an upstream direction. It experiences significant seasonal variations in response to rapidly varying discharge: tides are more asymmetric upstream of Zhenjiang in the dry season and more asymmetric downstream in the wet season. The combined effects of discharge regulation and morphological changes cause seasonal alterations in tidal duration asymmetry. In the wet season, reduced river discharge caused by water storage and climate change enhance the asymmetry upstream (+11.74% at Wuhu, +7.19 at Nanjing) while the asymmetry is weakened downstream (−2.90% at Zhenjiang, −7.19 at Jiangyin) following the TGD’s operation. Downstream channel erosion caused by post-TGD lower sediment loads has become the dominant factor weakening tidal asymmetry in most parts of the YRE in the dry season. Understanding these evolutions of tidal duration asymmetry under the hydrological and morphological effects has important implications for the management of estuarine ecosystem and navigation.

River confluences, which are characterized by complex hydrodynamics, are key nodes for flood control and environmental protection. Two field surveys were carried out at the confluence of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake to investigate the transient character of flow structures, which are often assumed steady. Repeat‐transect acoustic Doppler current profile measurements were processed and analyzed, adopting a new method to separate mean flow from turbulence and measurement error based on physics‐informed generalized Tikhonov regularization. The two field surveys were characterized by two distinct mixing interface modes: A so‐called Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) mode, and a wake mode. In KH mode, large‐scale flow fluctuations were observed. These flow fluctuations exert a substantial influence on the alternation of secondary flows by changing the water surface pressure gradient, affecting the intensity of secondary flows rather than their spatial structure. We infer that temperature‐induced stratification is the main cause of this. In the wake mode, multiple vortices in the wake region at the confluence apex also produced flow fluctuations, directly related to the primary velocity gradient. We argue that even for constant incoming flows, secondary flow at river confluences can exhibit channel‐scale unsteadiness related to migration of the turbulent mixing interface. Our findings highlight the crucial role of density effects in regulating secondary flow unsteadiness, which is essential for understanding contaminant and sediment dispersal in river systems. Plain Language Summary Secondary flow at river confluences is the vertical circulation of water perpendicular to the streamwise river axis. It is capable of transporting suspended sediment or pollutants from the river's surface and bottom to either of the two opposite banks. This feature affects river morphology as well as the aquatic ecological environment. It is commonly assumed that secondary flow remains steady in field observations, and time‐averaging is employed to obtain this steady flow pattern. To investigate the hypothesized transient character of secondary flow, we applied principles from water flow physics on acoustic flow measurements. This approach eliminated flow velocity data contributions from turbulence and measurement errors, allowing us to obtain near‐instantaneous secondary flow structures. The results reveal that the interaction between incoming flows at the confluence can cause the secondary flow indeed to change over time. These variations depend on the discharge and density difference between waters in the two rivers. Our findings suggest that secondary flows are less stable than commonly assumed, and time‐averaged flow field measurements may be insufficient when aiming to understand flow dynamics at river confluences. Key Points The mechanisms governing unsteady secondary flow at a large scale river confluence depend on the occurring flow mode In Kelvin‐Helmholtz mode, primary flow fluctuations translate to secondary flow variation by alternating centrifugal and pressure forcing In wake mode, vortex within mixing interface cause the secondary flow structure to be unsteady near the confluence apex

Acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) are a global standard in observing flow fields in rivers, estuaries and the coastal ocean. To date, it remains a labor intensive challenge to isolate mean flow fields governed by river discharge, tides and atmospheric forcing on the one hand, from small‐scale turbulence, positioning imprecision, Doppler noise and erroneous backscatter, on the other hand. Here, we introduce a generic, new method of combining raw shipborne ADCP transect data with continuity and smoothness constraints to obtain better estimates of turbulence‐averaged three‐dimensional flow velocities in any type of open water body. The physical constraints are enforced with variable relative importance via generalized Tikhonov regularization. We demonstrate that in complex estuarine flow, this procedure allows for more reliable estimates of tidal amplitudes, phases and their gradients than what is possible with a purely data‐based approach, by testing the method's generalization capabilities and robustness to turbulence and measurement noise on a data set retrieved at a tidal channel junction. The increased adherence to mass conservation and robustness to noise of various kinds allows for more reliable and verifiable estimates of Reynolds‐averaged flow components, and subsequently, of terms in the Navier‐Stokes equations. Plain Language Summary Vessel‐mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) are often used to measure open‐channel flow and derived quantities such as river discharge, bed shear stress and tidal flow amplitudes. Depending on the measurement setup and the detail of processes and patterns to be resolved, this estimation procedure can be heavily influenced by measurement noise, positioning inaccuracy and turbulent fluctuations, reducing the accuracy of flow estimates. In the present work, we use physical laws to improve the reliability and robustness of the inversion algorithm that converts raw ADCP data to flow vectors. As a proof of concept, the method is applied to a real data set that was collected for cross‐river transects in a tidal channel. Key Points A generic, new framework for analyzing vessel‐mounted ADCP data is introduced and validated Flow velocity estimation is improved using physics‐informed generalized Tikhonov regularization As a proof of concept, the method is applied to cross‐sectional data collected in complex estuarine flow

Storm surges are among the deadliest natural hazards, but understanding and prediction of year-to-year variability of storm surges is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that the interannual variability of observed storm surge levels can be explained and further predicted, through a process-based study in Hong Kong. We find that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a compound impact on storm surge levels through modulating tropical cyclones (TCs) and other forcing factors. The occurrence frequencies of local and remote TCs are responsible for the remaining variability in storm surge levels after removing the ENSO effect. Finally, we show that a statistical prediction model formed by ENSO and TC indices has good skill for prediction of extreme storm surge levels. The analysis approach can be applied to other coastal regions where tropical storms and the climate variability are main contributors to storm surges. Our study gives new insight into identifying ‘windows of opportunity’ for successful prediction of storm surges on long-range timescales.

River deltas, where ocean tides can often freely propagate into the river, are focal points of human settlement. Beneath the delta surface, groundwater stored in the soil strata fluctuates with river tides, resulting in pressure variations within the soil strata. Here, we introduce a novel ultra‐weak fiber‐optic instrument to test the hypothesis that tide‐induced groundwater level variations induce periodic soil stratum deformation. Using borehole deployments ranging over 70 m in the subsurface of the Yangtze Delta, we observe semidiurnal and spring–neap cycles of soil stratum deformation and reveal its dependence on lithology and depth. This allows us to coin the new term “soil stratum tide,” defined as the periodic deformation of soil strata in response to pressure fluctuations induced by tides in open water. High‐accuracy monitoring of the breathing of tidal deltas enables calibrating Earth observation systems, analysis of delta subsidence, and safeguarding of infrastructure jeopardized by soil stratum deformation. Plain Language Summary River deltas are important population centers, and deformation of their subsurface endangers the safety of nearly half a billion people worldwide. In tidal deltas, groundwater stored in soil strata fluctuates with river tides, resulting in pressure changes within the soil strata. Whether these pressure variations translate into expansion–shrinking cycles of the soil strata remains unknown to date. We break new ground in this field by developing a fiber‐optic instrument with microstrain accuracy and meter‐scale resolution. Using this novel sensing approach, we observe tidal soil stratum deformations beneath the Yangtze Delta and evaluate their dependence on lithology and depth. We coin the new term “soil stratum tide”, and pave the way for high‐accuracy deformation monitoring of the shallow subsurface of river deltas. Key Points We develop a novel quasidistributed ultra‐weak fiber Bragg grating instrument to observe and measure subtle subsurface deformation Our monitoring data provide the first view on soil stratum tidal deformation to date The energy of soil stratum tides is dominantly controlled by subsoil stiffness, permeability, and pore pressure tidal amplitude

Geometric characteristics of subaqueous bedforms, such as height, length and leeside angle, are crucial for determining hydraulic form roughness and interpreting sedimentary records. Traditionally, bedform existence and geometry predictors are primarily based on uniform, cohesionless sediments. However, mixtures of sand, silt and clay are common in deltaic, estuarine, and lowland river environments, where bedforms are ubiquitous. Therefore, we investigate the impact of fine sand and silt in sand‐silt mixtures on bedform geometry, based on laboratory experiments conducted in a recirculating flume. We systematically varied the fraction of sand and silt for different discharges, and utilized an acoustic Doppler velocimeter to measure flow velocity profiles. The final bed geometry was captured using a line laser scanner. Our findings reveal that the response of bedforms to an altered fine sediment percentage is ambiguous, and likely depends on, among others, bimodality‐driven bed mobility and sediment cohesiveness. When fine, non‐cohesive material (fine sand or coarse silt) is mixed with the base material (medium sand), an increased dune height and length is observed, possibly caused by the hiding‐exposure effect, resulting in enhanced mobility of the coarser material. However, weakly cohesive fine silt suppresses dune height and length, possibly caused by reduced sediment mobility. Finally, in the transition from dunes to upper stage plane bed, there are indications that the bed becomes unstable and dune heights vary over time. The composition of the bed material does not significantly impact the hydraulic roughness, but mainly affects roughness via the bed morphology, especially the leeside angle. Plain Language Summary Underwater bedforms, such as dunes, are often found on the bed of rivers and deltas. These rhythmic undulations have specific shapes and sizes, and they affect how water flows. When the bed of the river is made up of sand, we can predict the dune height and length. However, mixtures of different‐sized sediments are common in rivers, and it is unknown how this impacts the geometry of the dunes. Therefore, we did experiments in a flume, a laboratory facility to simulate a river, and we tested different sediment bed mixtures. We found that replacing part of the base material with non‐cohesive fine particles leads to longer dunes, likely caused by increased mobility of the base material. However, for weakly cohesive fine particles, the effect was the opposite, and the dunes became shorter, probably due to the limited mobility of the sediment. Finally, we observed that under high flow conditions, the bed became unstable and different dune shapes occurred. We found that the friction the water experiences is not directly impacted by the sediment bed mixtures, but is mostly affected by the shape of the bedforms. Key Points An increased dune length due to a larger fraction of finer, non‐cohesive material in a sand bed, implies an increased mobility of the sand A decreased dune size due to a larger fraction of finer, weakly cohesive silt in a sand bed, implies a decreased mobility of the sand Sediment bed composition indirectly affects hydraulic roughness by altering bedform geometry

Conceptually, tidal rivers are seen as narrow channels along which the cross-section geometry remains constant and the bed is horizontal. As tidal waves propagate along such a channel, they decrease exponentially in height. The more rapid the decrease, the stronger the river flow. Near the coast, the tidally averaged width and depth change little throughout the year, even if the river discharge varies strongly between the seasons. However, further upstream, the water depth varies considerably with the river discharge. Recent observations from the Kapuas River, Indonesia, show that the water surface forms a backwater profile when the river flow is low. In this case, the depth converges, i.e. it gradually decreases between the river mouth and the point where the bed reaches sea level. This effect distinctly influences how tidal waves propagate up river so that their wave height does not decrease exponentially any more. We present a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon, which reveals several so far overlooked aspects of river tides. These aspects are particularly relevant to low river flow. Along the downstream part of the tidal river, depth convergence counteracts frictional damping so that the tidal range is higher than expected. Along the upstream parts of the tidal river, the low depth increases the damping so that the tide more rapidly attenuates. The point where the bed reaches sea level effectively limits the tidal intrusion, which carries over to the overtide and the subtidal water level set-up.