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Uncertainty remains about the optimal monotherapy for hypertension, with current guidelines recommending any primary agent among the first-line drug classes thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, and non-dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, in the absence of comorbid indications. Randomised trials have not further refined this choice. We developed a comprehensive framework for real-world evidence that enables comparative effectiveness and safety evaluation across many drugs and outcomes from observational data encompassing millions of patients, while minimising inherent bias. Using this framework, we did a systematic, large-scale study under a new-user cohort design to estimate the relative risks of three primary (acute myocardial infarction, hospitalisation for heart failure, and stroke) and six secondary effectiveness and 46 safety outcomes comparing all first-line classes across a global network of six administrative claims and three electronic health record databases. The framework addressed residual confounding, publication bias, and p-hacking using large-scale propensity adjustment, a large set of control outcomes, and full disclosure of hypotheses tested. Using 4·9 million patients, we generated 22 000 calibrated, propensity-score-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing all classes and outcomes across databases. Most estimates revealed no effectiveness differences between classes; however, thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics showed better primary effectiveness than angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors: acute myocardial infarction (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75–0·95), hospitalisation for heart failure (0·83, 0·74–0·95), and stroke (0·83, 0·74–0·95) risk while on initial treatment. Safety profiles also favoured thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics over angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. The non-dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers were significantly inferior to the other four classes. This comprehensive framework introduces a new way of doing observational health-care science at scale. The approach supports equivalence between drug classes for initiating monotherapy for hypertension—in keeping with current guidelines, with the exception of thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics superiority to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and the inferiority of non-dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers. US National Science Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, Janssen Research & Development, IQVIA, South Korean Ministry of Health & Welfare, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

ObjectiveTo examine COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness over six 7-day intervals after the first dose and assess underlying bias in observational data.Design and settingRetrospective cohort study using Columbia University Irving Medical Center data linked to state and city immunisation registries.Outcomes and measuresWe used large-scale propensity score matching with up to 54 987 covariates, fitted Cox proportional hazards models and constructed Kaplan-Meier plots for two main outcomes (COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-associated hospitalisation). We conducted manual chart review of cases in week 1 in both groups along with a set of secondary analyses for other index date, outcome and population choices.ResultsThe study included 179 666 patients. We observed increasing effectiveness after the first dose of mRNA vaccines with week 6 effectiveness approximating 84% (95% CI 72% to 91%) for COVID-19 infection and 86% (95% CI 69% to 95%) for COVID-19-associated hospitalisation. When analysing unexpectedly high effectiveness in week 1, chart review revealed that vaccinated patients are less likely to seek care after vaccination and are more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 during the encounters for other conditions. Secondary analyses highlighted potential outcome misclassification for International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis, the influence of excluding patients with prior COVID-19 infection and anchoring in the unexposed group. Long-term vaccine effectiveness in fully vaccinated patients matched the results of the randomised trials.ConclusionsFor vaccine effectiveness studies, observational data need to be scrutinised to ensure compared groups exhibit similar health-seeking behaviour and are equally likely to be captured in the data. While we found that studies may be capable of accurately estimating long-term effectiveness despite bias in early weeks, the early week results should be reported in every study so that we may gain a better understanding of the biases. Given the difference in temporal trends of vaccine exposure and patients’ baseline characteristics, indirect comparison of vaccines may produce biased results.

Observational healthcare data, such as electronic health records and administrative claims, offer potential to estimate effects of medical products at scale. Observational studies have often been found to be nonreproducible, however, generating conflicting results even when using the same database to answer the same question. One source of discrepancies is error, both random caused by sampling variability and systematic (for example, because of confounding, selection bias, and measurement error). Only random error is typically quantified but converges to zero as databases become larger, whereas systematic error persists independent from sample size and therefore, increases in relative importance. Negative controls are exposure–outcome pairs, where one believes no causal effect exists; they can be used to detect multiple sources of systematic error, but interpreting their results is not always straightforward. Previously, we have shown that an empirical null distribution can be derived from a sample of negative controls and used to calibrate P values, accounting for both random and systematic error. Here, we extend this work to calibration of confidence intervals (CIs). CIs require positive controls, which we synthesize by modifying negative controls. We show that our CI calibration restores nominal characteristics, such as 95% coverage of the true effect size by the 95% CI. We furthermore show that CI calibration reduces disagreement in replications of two pairs of conflicting observational studies: one related to dabigatran, warfarin, and gastrointestinal bleeding and one related to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We recommend CI calibration to improve reproducibility of observational studies.

The authors of this protocol describe a similarity-based, large-scale approach to predicting novel drug-drug interactions (DDIs) integrating a reference standard database of known DDIs with drug similarity information from a variety of sources. Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a major cause of adverse drug effects and a public health concern, as they increase hospital care expenses and reduce patients' quality of life. DDI detection is, therefore, an important objective in patient safety, one whose pursuit affects drug development and pharmacovigilance. In this article, we describe a protocol applicable on a large scale to predict novel DDIs based on similarity of drug interaction candidates to drugs involved in established DDIs. The method integrates a reference standard database of known DDIs with drug similarity information extracted from different sources, such as 2D and 3D molecular structure, interaction profile, target and side-effect similarities. The method is interpretable in that it generates drug interaction candidates that are traceable to pharmacological or clinical effects. We describe a protocol with applications in patient safety and preclinical toxicity screening. The time frame to implement this protocol is 5–7 h, with additional time potentially necessary, depending on the complexity of the reference standard DDI database and the similarity measures implemented.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is determined by an interplay of monogenic, polygenic, and environmental risks. Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and COL4A-associated nephropathy (COL4A-AN) represent the most common forms of monogenic kidney diseases. These disorders have incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity, and we hypothesize that polygenic factors explain some of this variability. By combining SNP array, exome/genome sequence, and electronic health record data from the UK Biobank and All-of-Us cohorts, we demonstrate that the genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) significantly predicts CKD among ADPKD monogenic variant carriers. Compared to the middle tertile of the GPS for noncarriers, ADPKD variant carriers in the top tertile have a 54-fold increased risk of CKD, while ADPKD variant carriers in the bottom tertile have only a 3-fold increased risk of CKD. Similarly, the GPS significantly predicts CKD in COL4A-AN carriers. The carriers in the top tertile of the GPS have a 2.5-fold higher risk of CKD, while the risk for carriers in the bottom tertile is not different from the average population risk. These results suggest that accounting for polygenic risk improves risk stratification in monogenic kidney disease. Polygenic factors may partially explain the observed variability in the penetrance of monogenic diseases. Here, the authors show that a polygenic risk score for chronic kidney disease is significantly associated with a higher risk of renal dysfunction in the two most common monogenic forms of kidney disease, suggesting that accounting for polygenic factors improves risk stratification in monogenic kidney disease.

Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual's blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges.

Observational research promises to complement experimental research by providing large, diverse populations that would be infeasible for an experiment. Observational research can test its own clinical hypotheses, and observational studies also can contribute to the design of experiments and inform the generalizability of experimental research. Understanding the diversity of populations and the variance in care is one component. In this study, the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) collaboration created an international data network with 11 data sources from four countries, including electronic health records and administrative claims data on 250 million patients. All data were mapped to common data standards, patient privacy was maintained by using a distributed model, and results were aggregated centrally. Treatment pathways were elucidated for type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and depression. The pathways revealed that the world is moving toward more consistent therapy over time across diseases and across locations, but significant heterogeneity remains among sources, pointing to challenges in generalizing clinical trial results. Diabetes favored a single first-line medication, metformin, to a much greater extent than hypertension or depression. About 10% of diabetes and depression patients and almost 25% of hypertension patients followed a treatment pathway that was unique within the cohort. Aside from factors such as sample size and underlying population (academic medical center versus general population), electronic health records data and administrative claims data revealed similar results. Large-scale international observational research is feasible.

The growing amount of data in operational electronic health record systems provides unprecedented opportunity for its reuse for many tasks, including comparative effectiveness research. However, there are many caveats to the use of such data. Electronic health record data from clinical settings may be inaccurate, incomplete, transformed in ways that undermine their meaning, unrecoverable for research, of unknown provenance, of insufficient granularity, and incompatible with research protocols. However, the quantity and real-world nature of these data provide impetus for their use, and we develop a list of caveats to inform would-be users of such data as well as provide an informatics roadmap that aims to insure this opportunity to augment comparative effectiveness research can be best leveraged.

To determine whether natural language processing (NLP) can effectively detect adverse events defined in the New York Patient Occurrence Reporting and Tracking System (NYPORTS) using discharge summaries. An adverse event detection system for discharge summaries using the NLP system MedLEE was constructed to identify 45 NYPORTS event types. The system was first applied to a random sample of 1,000 manually reviewed charts. The system then processed all inpatient cases with electronic discharge summaries for two years. All system-identified events were reviewed, and performance was compared with traditional reporting. System sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value, with manual review serving as the gold standard. The system correctly identified 16 of 65 events in 1,000 charts. Of 57,452 total electronic discharge summaries, the system identified 1,590 events in 1,461 cases, and manual review verified 704 events in 652 cases, resulting in an overall sensitivity of 0.28 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17–0.42), specificity of 0.985 (CI: 0.984–0.986), and positive predictive value of 0.45 (CI: 0.42–0.47) for detecting cases with events and an average specificity of 0.9996 (CI: 0.9996–0.9997) per event type. Traditional event reporting detected 322 events during the period (sensitivity 0.09), of which the system identified 110 as well as 594 additional events missed by traditional methods. NLP is an effective technique for detecting a broad range of adverse events in text documents and outperformed traditional and previous automated adverse event detection methods.

The aim of this study was to develop a method based on natural language processing (NLP) that automatically maps an entire clinical document to codes with modifiers and to quantitatively evaluate the method. An existing NLP system, MedLEE, was adapted to automatically generate codes. The method involves matching of structured output generated by MedLEE consisting of findings and modifiers to obtain the most specific code. Recall and precision applied to Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) coding were evaluated in two separate studies. Recall was measured using a test set of 150 randomly selected sentences, which were processed using MedLEE. Results were compared with a reference standard determined manually by seven experts. Precision was measured using a second test set of 150 randomly selected sentences from which UMLS codes were automatically generated by the method and then validated by experts. Recall of the system for UMLS coding of all terms was .77 (95% CI .72–.81), and for coding terms that had corresponding UMLS codes recall was .83 (.79–.87). Recall of the system for extracting all terms was .84 (.81–.88). Recall of the experts ranged from .69 to .91 for extracting terms. The precision of the system was .89 (.87–.91), and precision of the experts ranged from .61 to .91. Extraction of relevant clinical information and UMLS coding were accomplished using a method based on NLP. The method appeared to be comparable to or better than six experts. The advantage of the method is that it maps text to codes along with other related information, rendering the coded output suitable for effective retrieval.