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Background and aimsThe aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a ‘real world’ surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.Patients and methodsWe had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.ResultsThe aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79–0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.ConclusionsThe results from this ‘real-world’ cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

Background Depression is common among patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), but reports of its prevalence are highly variable. We performed a systematic review to (i) describe the prevalence of depression in axSpA, (ii) compare its prevalence between axSpA, ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axSpA (nr-axSpA) cohorts, and (iii) compare disease activity and functional impairment between those with and without depression. Methods We searched Medline, PubMed, Web of Science, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, the Cochrane library and conference abstracts of the European League Against Rheumatism, British Society for Rheumatology and American College of Rheumatology using a predefined protocol in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Meta-analysis was performed using quality-effects model. Results Fifteen original articles and one abstract were included for analysis; 14 studies described AS cohorts and two nr-axSpA. Three screening criteria and one diagnostic criterion were used to define depression. Prevalence ranged from 11 to 64% depending on criteria and thresholds used. Pooled prevalence of at least moderate depression was 15% using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) threshold of ≥ 11. The prevalence of depression was similar between axSpA, AS and nr-axSpA cohorts. Patients with depression had significantly worse disease activity, including higher BASDAI by 1.4 units (95% CI 1.0 to 1.9), ASDAS by 0.5 units (95% CI 0.3 to 0.7) and ESR by 3.5 mm/h (95% CI 0.6 to 6.4). They also had greater functional impairment with higher BASFI and BASMI by 1.2 units (95% CI 0.6 to 1.8) and 0.6 units (95% CI 0.3 to 0.8), respectively. Mean age of each study cohort inversely correlated with depression prevalence. Conclusions Depression is common among axSpA patients and is associated with more severe disease activity and functional impairment. Identifying and managing depression should form part of their holistic care. Further longitudinal studies are needed to explore the impact of depression on treatment outcomes and axSpA treatment on symptoms of depression.

Standard bodyweights are an essential component of calculations that summarise many population-level measures in companion animals, including the defined daily doses for veterinary species (DDDVet) reporting antimicrobial usage. Standard species bodyweights may originate from data derived from clinical records, but current methods to obtain these values risk inaccuracy because they exclude measurements obtained from juvenile animals and consider only individuals that have achieved stable adult bodyweight. This study aimed to improve the accuracy of standard population level species bodyweights through the development of a prediction modelling approach to estimate point mean population bodyweight in dogs, cats, rabbits, and guinea pigs. Data were obtained from the VetCompass database and included bodyweight measurements from approximately three million dogs, two million cats, 220,000 rabbits and 62,000 guinea pigs across 1,800 veterinary practices in the United Kingdom. Initially, Loess models were used to identify the age at which juvenile animals transitioned from growth to stable adult bodyweight. Linear mixed effects models were developed to predict juvenile growth, calibrated such that predicted cessation of growth matched that observed in the Loess models. The prediction models were then used to adjust bodyweight measurements obtained from clinical records of juvenile patients, allowing historical measurements to be included for estimation of a point mean population bodyweight on a subsequent specified target date. Juvenile growth transitioned to stable adult bodyweight at approximately 14 months in dogs, and 13 months in cats, rabbits, and guinea pigs. Point mean whole-population bodyweights estimated on 31 st December for each year 2014 – 2023 found that the mean bodyweight of cats, rabbits, and guinea pigs was approximately 4.2 kg, 2.3 kg, and 1.0 kg respectively and changed little over this time period. However, dogs showed a trend to lower mean bodyweight over time, with a mean value of 17.6 kg in 2014, reducing to 16.1 kg by 2023.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing is a key weapon against antimicrobial resistance. Diagnostic microbiology laboratories use one-size-fits-all testing approaches that are often imprecise, inefficient, and inequitable. Here, we report a personalised approach that adapts laboratory testing for urinary tract infection to maximise the number of appropriate treatment options for each patient. We develop and assess susceptibility prediction models for 12 antibiotics on real-world healthcare data using an individual-level simulation study. When combined with decision thresholds that prioritise selection of World Health Organisation Access category antibiotics (those least likely to induce antimicrobial resistance), the personalised approach delivers more susceptible results (results that encourage prescription of that antibiotic) per specimen for Access category antibiotics than a standard testing approach, without compromising provision of susceptible results overall. Here, we show that personalised antimicrobial susceptibility testing could help tackle antimicrobial resistance by safely providing more Access category antibiotic treatment options to clinicians managing urinary tract infection. Authors present a personalised approach to clinical laboratory testing of antibiotics, based on real-time mathematical modelling, that encourages the use of drugs less likely to cause antimicrobial resistance, without compromising on overall antibiotic treatment options for prescribers.

The aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to: (1) describe the prevalence of commonly reported comorbidities in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), (2) compare the incidence and/or prevalence of comorbidities between PsA and control populations; and (3) examine the impact of comorbidities on PsA outcomes. We systematically searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science using a predefined protocol in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Studies reporting only one comorbidity, or a few closely related diseases within one organ system, were excluded. Where possible, meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models. We included 39 studies amounting to over 152 thousand PsA patients. We performed meta-analysis for the prevalence of 21 commonly reported comorbidities. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (pooled prevalence 34%), metabolic syndrome (29%), obesity (27%), hyperlipidaemia (24%) and any cardiovascular diseases (19%). Eleven studies consistently showed higher prevalence of comorbidities in PsA than controls. Five studies showed that comorbid patients had more severe disease, poorer quality of life, and increased discontinuation of treatment. Comorbidities, particularly cardiometabolic disorders, were highly prevalent in PsA and more common than in healthy controls. Comorbidities were associated with adverse disease features, but more research is needed on their impact on longitudinal outcomes such as treatment response, work productivity and mortality.

The fecal metabolome in early life has seldom been studied. We investigated its evolution in pre-term babies during their first weeks of life. Multiple (n = 152) stool samples were studied from 51 babies, all <32 weeks gestation. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were analyzed by headspace solid phase microextraction gas chromatography mass spectrometry. Data were interpreted using Automated Mass Spectral Deconvolution System (AMDIS) with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) reference library. Statistical analysis was based on linear mixed modelling, the number of VOCs increased over time; a rise was mainly observed between day 5 and day 10. The shift at day 5 was associated with products of branched-chain fatty acids. Prior to this, the metabolome was dominated by aldehydes and acetic acid. Caesarean delivery showed a modest association with molecules of fungal origin. This study shows how the metabolome changes in early life in pre-term babies. The shift in the metabolome 5 days after delivery coincides with the establishment of enteral feeding and the transition from meconium to feces. Great diversity of metabolites was associated with being fed greater volumes of milk.

Various factors including body weight-associated treatment cost may influence the probability of dispensing antibiotics to dogs in first-opinion practice, but their effect on specific drug choice remains unclear. Multiple membership regression modeling was used to investigate the probability of dispensing 12 different antibiotics to dogs of different weights in the context of various disease presentations, using anonymized data obtained from electronic health records of 18 clinics between 2020 and 2022. Data from 14,259 dogs were analyzed. Treatment choice varied significantly with animal weight. Higher body weight was associated with an increased likelihood of dispensing lower cost antimicrobials such as amoxicillin and trimethoprim sulfonamide, while use of higher cost antimicrobials such as cefovecin was strongly biased to smaller animals. However, these effects were limited when restricted treatment options were available for the target condition. This work demonstrates that anticipated financial costs may result in different treatment choices for canine patients depending on their body weight. Further work is needed to understand the impact of financial pressures on veterinarians' treatment choices, and the implications for the optimization of antimicrobial stewardship in first opinion practice.

Background Covid-19 healthcare worker testing, isolation and quarantine policies had to balance risks to patients from the virus and from staff absence. The emergence of the Omicron variant led to dangerous levels of key-worker absence globally. We evaluated whether using two manufacturers’ lateral flow tests (LFTs) concurrently improved SARS-CoV-2 Omicron detection significantly and was acceptable to hospital staff. In a nested study, to understand risks of return to work after a 5-day isolation/quarantine period, we examined virus culture 5–7 days after positive test or significant exposure. Methods Fully-vaccinated Liverpool (UK) University Hospitals staff participated (February-May 2022) in a random-order, open-label trial testing whether dual LFTs improved SARS-CoV-2 detection, and whether dual swabbing was acceptable to users. Participants used nose-throat swab Innova and nose-only swab Orient Gene LFTs in daily randomised order for 10 days. A user-experience questionnaire was administered on exit. Selected participants gave swabs for viral culture on days 5–7 after symptom onset or first positive test. Cultures were considered positive if cytopathic effect was apparent or SARS-CoV-2 N gene sub-genomic RNA was detected. Results Two hundred and twenty-six individuals reported 1466 pairs of LFT results. Tests disagreed in 127 cases (8.7%). Orient Gene was more likely (78 cf. 49; OR: 2.1, 1.1–4.1; P  = 0.03) to be positive. If Innova was swabbed second, it was less likely to agree with a positive Orient Gene result (OR: 2.7, 1.3–5.2; P  = 0.005); swabbing first with Innova made no significant difference (OR: 1.1, 0.5–2.3; P  = 0.85). Orient Gene positive Innova negative result-pairs became more frequent over time (OR: 1.2, 1.1–1.3; P  < 0.001). Of individuals completing the exit questionnaire, 90.7% reported dual swabbing was easy, 57.1% said it was no barrier to their daily routine and 65.6% preferred dual testing. Respondents had more confidence in dual versus single test results. Viral cultures from days 5–7 were positive for 6/31 (19.4%, 7.5%-37.5%) and indeterminate for 11/31 (35.5%, 19.2%-54.6%) LFT-positive participants, indicating they were likely still infectious. Conclusions Dual brand testing increased LFT detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen by a small but meaningful margin and was acceptable to hospital workers. Viral cultures demonstrated that policies recommending safe return to work ~ 5 days after Omicron infection/exposure were flawed. Key-workers should be prepared for dynamic self-testing protocols in future pandemics. Trial registration https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN47058442 (26 January 2022).

Background Our study examines if SARS-CoV-2 infections varied by vaccination status, if an individual had previously tested positive and by neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation across the Delta and Omicron epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2. Methods Population cohort study using electronic health records for 2.7 M residents in Cheshire and Merseyside, England (3rd June 2021 to 1st March 2022). Our outcome variable was registered positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Explanatory variables were vaccination status, previous registered positive test and neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation. Cox regression models were used to analyse associations. Results Originally higher SARS-CoV-2 rates in the most socioeconomically deprived neighbourhoods changed to being higher in the least deprived neighbourhoods from the 1st September 2021, and were inconsistent during the Omicron wave. Individuals who were fully vaccinated (two doses) were associated with fewer registered positive tests (e.g., individuals engaged in testing between 1st September and 27th November 2021—Hazards Ratio (HR) = 0.48, 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) = 0.47–0.50. Individuals with a previous registered positive test were also less likely to have a registered positive test (e.g., individuals engaged in testing between 1st September and 27th November 2021—HR = 0.16, 95% CIs = 0.15–0.18. However, the Omicron period saw smaller effect sizes for both vaccination status and previous registered positive test. Conclusions Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Delta and Omicron waves reveals a dynamic pandemic that continues to affect diverse communities in sometimes unexpected ways.