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The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect midlatitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures. Arctic Ocean Climate change Ecology Geopolitics Indigenous Peoples Sea ice

Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from extended foraging periods in formerly ice-covered seas, but (3) they may face increasing competition from seasonally migrant species, which will likely infiltrate Arctic habitats. The means to track and assess Arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management.

Advocates of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) have promoted its use in scientific research, impact assessment, and ecological understanding. While several examples illustrate the utility of applying TEK in these contexts, wider application of TEK‐derived information remains elusive. In part, this is due to continued inertia in favor of established scientific practices and the need to describe TEK in Western scientific terms. In part, it is also due to the difficulty of accessing TEK, which is rarely written down and must in most cases be documented as a project on its own prior to its incorporation into another scientific undertaking. This formidable practical obstacle is exacerbated by the need to use social science methods to gather biological data, so that TEK research and application becomes a multidisciplinary undertaking. By examining case studies involving bowhead whales, beluga whales, and herring, this paper describes some of the benefits of using TEK in scientific and management contexts. It also reviews some of the methods that are available to do so, including semi‐directive interviews, questionnaires, facilitated workshops, and collaborative field projects.

Local communities throughout the world are experiencing extensive social, cultural, economic, environmental, and climatic changes. Rather than passively accepting the effects of such changes, many communities are responding in various ways to take advantage of opportunities and to minimize negative impacts. We review examples from 13 cases around the world to identify patterns in how communities have been able to respond to change. Communities are able to respond by making changes in the time and location of activities, by using different species, by developing or using new technologies, and by organizing themselves internally or in networks. The possible responses a community can make on its own constitute the autonomous response space. When communities work with others to respond, they are in the collaborative response space. These findings suggest that assessments concerning climate and other forms of change should include local responses as a foundation for policy recommendations, recognizing that both autonomous and collaborative responses can contribute to adaptation. Policies designed to achieve adaptation or sustainability should consider ways to expand the autonomous response space, thus freeing local initiative, while also making the collaborative response space more cooperative, thus providing support to communities rather than imposing limitations.

Human-environment connections are the subject of much study, and the details of those connections are crucial factors in effective environmental management. In a large, interdisciplinary study of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem involving disciplines from physical oceanography to anthropology, one of the research teams examined commercial fisheries and another looked at subsistence harvests by Alaska Natives. Commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests are extensive, demonstrating strong connections between the ecosystem and the humans who use it. At the same time, however, both research teams concluded that the influence of ecosystem conditions on the outcomes of human activities was weaker than anticipated. Likely explanations of this apparently loose coupling include the ability of fishers and hunters to adjust to variable conditions, and the role of social systems and management in moderating the direct effects of changes in the ecosystem. We propose a new conceptual model for future studies that incorporates a greater range of social factors and their dynamics, in addition to similarly detailed examinations of the ecosystem itself.

Iñupiaq, Yup’ik, and Cup’ik hunters in 14 Alaska Native communities described a rapidly changing marine environment in qualitative traditional knowledge interviews conducted over the course of a decade with 110 individuals. Based on their observations, sea ice conditions are the most notable change, with later freeze-up, thinner and less reliable ice, and earlier and more rapid break-up. Marine mammal populations in northern and western Alaska have been affected by changes in the physical environment, with alterations to migratory timing and routes, distribution, abundance, health, and behavior. Despite these changes, marine mammal populations in the region remain generally healthy and abundant. For hunters, access is the biggest challenge posed by changing conditions. Sea ice is less safe for travel, particularly for more southerly communities, making hunting more dangerous or impossible. Rapid break-up has reduced the time available for hunting amid broken ice in spring, formerly a dependable and preferred season. Social change also affects the ways in which hunting patterns change. Increased industrial development, for example, can also alter marine mammal distribution and reduce hunting opportunity. Reduced use of animal skins for clothing and other purposes has reduced demand. More powerful and reliable engines make day trips easier, reducing the time spent camping. An essential component of adjustment and adaptation to changing conditions is the retention of traditional values and the acquisition of new information to supplement traditional knowledge. Our findings are consistent with, and add detail to, what is known from previous traditional knowledge and scientific studies. The ways in which hunters gather new information and incorporate it into their existing understanding of the marine environment deserves further attention, both as a means of monitoring change and as a key aspect of adaptation. While the changes to date have been largely manageable, future prospects are unclear, as the effects of climate change are expected to continue in the region, and ecological change may accelerate. Social and regulatory change will continue to play a role in fostering or constraining the ability of hunters to adapt to the effects of climate change.

Climate change is impacting the subsistence livelihoods of many indigenous communities in the Arctic. We describe how structured decision analysis (SDA), informed by traditional ecological knowledge, can be used to understand the mechanisms of how climate change influences subsistence species and their harvest, and to build upon existing adaptive strategies and decision-making processes. In the Iñupiat community of Wainwright, Alaska, we test SDA as a potential framework by which vulnerabilities of subsistence systems can be identified and climate change adaptations can be prioritized. Over the course of five workshops, participants identified issues of concern, assessed the benefits and trade-offs of different strategies to enhance the safety of subsistence activities, identified factors influencing key subsistence species and their accessibility, and assessed the dependence of animals and their harvest on sea ice. Furthermore, we asked workshop participants to assess whether subsistence resources have increased, decreased, or remained stable over the past decade. Declining caribou populations and unsafe ice conditions for hunters were of particular concern in Wainwright. Participants identified high priority safety strategies such as a new docking facility, safety workshops, a hunter meeting place, and search and rescue boats. Because of its coastal location on a lagoon at the mouth of a river, Wainwright has a highly diverse subsistence system that may in part buffer the negative effects of climate change. Furthermore, most species or groups harvested in Wainwright were assessed as stable or increasing. Nevertheless, of the five most important subsistence species in Wainwright, one experienced recent population declines (caribou) and the harvest of three others depends on the presence of thick, reliable shorefast ice. We propose that SDA can be a useful tool to assess the vulnerability of subsistence systems to climate change, and can be used to prioritize strategies to adapt to climate change.

[...] researchers and locals should collaborate to establish new ways of gathering traditional knowledge. [...] we need to develop better ways of managing this information.

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO 2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.