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Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage between atmospheric evaporative demand E₀ and actual evapotranspiration (ET) is leveraged in a new drought index based solely on E₀—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). EDDI measures the signal of drought through the response of E₀ to surface drying anomalies that result from two distinct land surface–atmosphere interactions: 1) a complementary relationship between E₀ and ET that develops under moisture limitations at the land surface, leading to ET declining and increasing E₀, as in sustained droughts, and 2) parallel ET and E₀ increases arising from increased energy availability that lead to surface moisture limitations, as in flash droughts. To calculate EDDI from E₀, a long-term, daily reanalysis of reference ET estimated from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) standardized reference ET equation using radiation and meteorological variables from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) is used. EDDI is obtained by deriving empirical probabilities of aggregated E₀ depths relative to their climatologic means across a user-specific time period and normalizing these probabilities. Positive EDDI values then indicate drier-than-normal conditions and the potential for drought. EDDI is a physically based, multiscalar drought index that that can serve as an indicator of both flash and sustained droughts, in some hydroclimates offering early warning relative to current operational drought indices. The performance of EDDI is assessed against other commonly used drought metrics across CONUS in Part II.

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies. Key Points Baseflows decrease despite higher annual precipitation and groundwater recharge Groundwater discharge to streams inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff Surface and groundwater interactions important for projected hydrologic change

Precipitation, soil moisture, and air temperature are the most commonly used climate variables to monitor drought; however, other climatic factors such as solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity can be important drivers in the depletion of soil moisture and evolution and persistence of drought. This work assesses the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) at multiple time scales for several hydroclimates as the second part of a two-part study. EDDI and individual evaporative demand components were examined as they relate to the dynamic evolution of flash drought over the central United States, characterization of hydrologic drought over the western United States, and comparison to commonly used drought metrics of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and the evaporative stress index (ESI). Two main advantages of EDDI over other drought indices are that it is independent of precipitation (similar to ESI) and it can be decomposed to identify the role individual evaporative drivers have on drought onset and persistence. At short time scales, spatial distributions and time series results illustrate that EDDI often indicates drought onset well in advance of the USDM, SPI, and SSI. Results illustrate the benefits of physically based evaporative demand estimates and demonstrate EDDI’s utility and effectiveness in an easy-to-implement agricultural early warning and long-term hydrologic drought–monitoring tool with potential applications in seasonal forecasting and fire-weather monitoring.

The paucity of long-term observations, particularly in regions with heterogeneous climate and land cover, can hinder incorporating climate data at appropriate spatial scales for decision-making and scientific research. Numerous gridded climate, weather, and remote sensing products have been developed to address the needs of both land managers and scientists, in turn enhancing scientific knowledge and strengthening early-warning systems. However, these data remain largely inaccessible for a broader segment of users given the computational demands of big data. Climate Engine ( http://ClimateEngine.org ) is a web-based application that overcomes many computational barriers that users face by employing Google’s parallel cloud-computing platform, Google Earth Engine, to process, visualize, download, and share climate and remote sensing datasets in real time. The software application development and design of Climate Engine is briefly outlined to illustrate the potential for high-performance processing of big data using cloud computing. Second, several examples are presented to highlight a range of climate research and applications related to drought, fire, ecology, and agriculture that can be rapidly generated using Climate Engine. The ability to access climate and remote sensing data archives with on-demand parallel cloud computing has created vast opportunities for advanced natural resource monitoring and process understanding.

Groundwater is the most ubiquitous source of liquid freshwater globally, yet its role in supporting diverse ecosystems is rarely acknowledged 1 , 2 . However, the location and extent of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are unknown in many geographies, and protection measures are lacking 1 , 3 . Here, we map GDEs at high-resolution (roughly 30 m) and find them present on more than one-third of global drylands analysed, including important global biodiversity hotspots 4 . GDEs are more extensive and contiguous in landscapes dominated by pastoralism with lower rates of groundwater depletion, suggesting that many GDEs are likely to have already been lost due to water and land use practices. Nevertheless, 53% of GDEs exist within regions showing declining groundwater trends, which highlights the urgent need to protect GDEs from the threat of groundwater depletion. However, we found that only 21% of GDEs exist on protected lands or in jurisdictions with sustainable groundwater management policies, invoking a call to action to protect these vital ecosystems. Furthermore, we examine the linkage of GDEs with cultural and socio-economic factors in the Greater Sahel region, where GDEs play an essential role in supporting biodiversity and rural livelihoods, to explore other means for protection of GDEs in politically unstable regions. Our GDE map provides critical information for prioritizing and developing policies and protection mechanisms across various local, regional or international scales to safeguard these important ecosystems and the societies dependent on them. Mapping of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, which support biodiversity and rural livelihoods, shows they occur on more than one-third of global drylands analysed, but lack protections to safeguard these critical ecosystems and the societies dependent upon them from groundwater depletion.

Terrestrial open water evaporation is difficult to measure both in situ and remotely yet is critical for understanding changes in reservoirs, lakes, and inland seas from human management and climatically altered hydrological cycling. Multiple satellite missions and data systems (e.g., ECOSTRESS, OpenET) now operationally produce evapotranspiration (ET), but the open water evaporation data produced over millions of water bodies are algorithmically produced differently than the main ET data and are often overlooked in evaluation. Here, we evaluated the open water evaporation algorithm, AquaSEBS, used by ECOSTRESS and OpenET against 19 in situ open water evaporation sites from around the world using MODIS and Landsat data, making this one of the largest open water evaporation validations to date. Overall, our remotely sensed open water evaporation retrieval captured some variability and magnitude in the in situ data when controlling for high wind events (instantaneous: r 2  = 0.71; bias = 13% of mean; RMSE = 38% of mean). Much of the instantaneous uncertainty was due to high wind events ( u  > mean daily 7.5 m·s −1 ) when the open water evaporation process shifts from radiatively-controlled to atmospherically-controlled; not accounting for high wind events decreases instantaneous accuracy significantly (r 2  = 0.47; bias = 36% of mean; RMSE = 62% of mean). However, this sensitivity minimizes with temporal integration (e.g., daily RMSE = 1.2–1.5 mm·day −1 ). To benchmark AquaSEBS, we ran a suite of 11 machine learning models, but found that they did not significantly improve on the process-based formulation of AquaSEBS suggesting that the remaining error is from a combination of the in situ evaporation measurements, forcing data, and/or scaling mismatch; the machine learning models were able to predict error well in and of itself (r 2  = 0.74). Our results provide confidence in the remotely sensed open water evaporation data, though not without uncertainty, and a foundation by which current and future missions may build such operational data.

Phenology of plants is important for ecological interactions. The timing and development of green leaves, plant maturity, and senescence affects biophysical interactions of plants with the environment. In this study we explored the agreement between land-based camera and satellite-based phenology metrics to quantify plant phenology and phenophases dates in five plant community types characteristic of the semi-arid cold desert region of the Great Basin. Three years of data were analyzed. We calculated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for both land-based cameras (i.e., phenocams) and Landsat imagery. NDVI from camera images was calculated by taking a standard RGB (red, green, and blue) image and then a near infrared (NIR) plus RGB image. Phenocam NDVI was calculated by extracting the red digital number (DN) and the NIR DN from images taken a few seconds apart. Landsat has a spatial resolution of 30 m2, while phenocam spatial resolution can be analyzed at the single pixel level at the scale of cm2 or area averaged regions can be analyzed with scales up to 1 km2. For this study, phenocam regions of interest were used that approximated the scale of at least one Landsat pixel. In the tall-statured pinyon and juniper woodland sites, there was a lack of agreement in NDVI between phenocam and Landsat NDVI, even after using National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery to account for fractional coverage of pinyon and juniper versus interspace in the phenocam data. Landsat NDVI appeared to be dominated by the signal from the interspace and was insensitive to subtle changes in the pinyon and juniper tree canopy. However, for short-statured sagebrush shrub and meadow communities, there was good agreement between the phenocam and Landsat NDVI as reflected in high Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r > 0.75). Due to greater temporal resolution of the phenocams with images taken daily, versus the 16-day return interval of Landsat, phenocam data provided more utility in determining important phenophase dates: start of season, peak of season, and end of season. More specific species-level information can be obtained with the high temporal resolution of phenocams, but only for a limited number of sites, while Landsat can provide the multi-decadal history and spatial coverage that is unmatched by other platforms. The agreement between Landsat and phenocam NDVI for short-statured plant communities of the Great Basin, shows promise for monitoring landscape and regional-level plant phenology across large areas and time periods, with phenocams providing a more comprehensive understanding of plant phenology at finer spatial scales, and Landsat extending the historical record of observations.

Rising evaporative demand (ETo) with a warming climate contributes to diminished water availability in water-stressed agricultural regions globally. While increased ETo typically necessitates increased irrigation, we explore how crop phenological response can moderate this challenge. Focusing on five key agricultural crops in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), we employ coupled water balance and phenology models to project crop water demands as a function of increased ETo and changing phenology. All crops exhibited accelerated growth from a shortened growing season with warming. The shortened crop maturation period partially to fully offset increased crop water demands due to rising ETo, with the largest phenological influence for annual crops such as tomato and corn. By contrast, models that do not account for phenological changes showed increased irrigation demands of approximately 3.5%–4.5% per °C of global warming primarily due to increased ETo. Integration with dynamic phenological models for the five key crops across the extent of agricultural land in the SJV showed a 1.6% decrease in irrigation needs under a 2 °C warming scenario. While phenological change alongside plant physiological responses to increased atmospheric CO2 may help buffer the impact of climate change on crop irrigation demand, decreased crop yields with a shorter growing season and continued reliance of groundwater reserves for agricultural water use and reduced spring snowpack will threaten coupled agricultural and water security in the region.

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks.

High frequency and spatially explicit irrigated land maps are important for understanding the patterns and impacts of consumptive water use by agriculture. We built annual, 30 m resolution irrigation maps using Google Earth Engine for the years 1986–2018 for 11 western states within the conterminous U.S. Our map classifies lands into four classes: irrigated agriculture, dryland agriculture, uncultivated land, and wetlands. We built an extensive geospatial database of land cover from each class, including over 50,000 human-verified irrigated fields, 38,000 dryland fields, and over 500,000 km 2 of uncultivated lands. We used 60,000 point samples from 28 years to extract Landsat satellite imagery, as well as climate, meteorology, and terrain data to train a Random Forest classifier. Using a spatially independent validation dataset of 40,000 points, we found our classifier has an overall binary classification (irrigated vs. unirrigated) accuracy of 97.8%, and a four-class overall accuracy of 90.8%. We compared our results to Census of Agriculture irrigation estimates over the seven years of available data and found good overall agreement between the 2832 county-level estimates (r 2 = 0.90), and high agreement when estimates are aggregated to the state level (r 2 = 0.94). We analyzed trends over the 33-year study period, finding an increase of 15% (15,000 km 2 ) in irrigated area in our study region. We found notable decreases in irrigated area in developing urban areas and in the southern Central Valley of California and increases in the plains of eastern Colorado, the Columbia River Basin, the Snake River Plain, and northern California.