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47 result(s) for "Hussain, Azfar"
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Observed Trends and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation and Their Global Teleconnections in the Upper Indus Basin, Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya
Having an extreme topography and heterogeneous climate, the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is more likely to be affected by climate change and it is a crucial area for climatological studies. Based on the monthly minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation from nine meteorological stations, the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results show a widespread significant increasing trend of 0.14 °C/decade for Tmax, but a significant decreasing trend of −0.08 °C/decade for Tmin annually, during 1955–2016 for the UIB. Seasonally, warming in Tmax is stronger in winter and spring, while the cooling in Tmin is greater in summer and autumn. Results of seasonal Tmax indicate increasing trends in winter, spring and autumn at rates of 0.38, 0.35 and 0.05 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing in summer with −0.14 °C/decade. Moreover, seasonal Tmin results indicate increasing trends in winter and spring at rates of 0.09 and 0.08 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing significantly in summer and autumn at rates of −0.21 and −0.22 °C/decade respectively for the whole the UIB. Precipitation exhibits an increasing trend of 2.74 mm/decade annually, while, increasing in winter, summer and autumn at rates of 1.18, 2.06 and 0.62 mm/decade respectively. The warming in Tmax and an increase in precipitation have been more distinct since the mid-1990s, while the cooling in Tmin is observed in the UIB since the mid-1980s. Warming in the middle and higher altitude (1500–2800 m and >2800 m) are much stronger, and the increase is more obvious in regions with elevation >2800 m. The wavelet analysis illustrated sporadic inter-annual covariance of seasonal Tmax, Tmin and precipitation with ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO in the UIB. The periodicities were usually constant over short timescales and discontinuous over longer timescales. This study offers a better understanding of the local climate characteristics and provides a scientific basis for government policymakers.
Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan
In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify the associations between regional temperature change and global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Pacific/North American Index (PNA), North Pacific Pattern (NP), Western Pacific Index (WP), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator to compute the temperature changes in Pakistan and its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It is found that the temperature in Pakistan has increased significantly at 0.23 °C dec −1 in the last 62 years, which is also higher than the global average increase. This increase is more evident in region IV and V in spring at 0.63 and 0.43 °C dec −1 respectively, followed by summer and autumn. Temperature changes in Pakistan and its sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP and WHWP with higher mean significant coherences. Overall, temperature changes are significantly influenced by multiple interactions of global teleconnections, and these combinations indicate that the integrated influence of teleconnections can better explain the regional temperature changes. The teleconnections with broader significant influence over Pakistan are NP + WP + WHWP, followed by Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, and PNA), and Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, and NAO) indices as revealed by the mean significant coherences of 0.82, 0.82 and 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA and WHWP showed significant correlation with higher magnitudes of 0.44, 0.42 and 0.20 respectively, indicating the modulation effect of these teleconnections on temperature changes over Pakistan. The combined impacts from the various teleconnections represent a considerable advancement in the accuracy of significant temperature variations over the country. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in terms of better planning and policies in light of climate change as well as atmospheric circulation variability.
Spatiotemporal Runoff Analysis and Associated Influencing Factors in Chitral Basin, Pakistan
Global warming has accelerated climate and weather changes, impacting the regional water cycle. This study assesses the temporal trends of seasonal and annual runoff in the Chitral River Basin (CRB) and its responses to regional climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) and oceanic indices at large scales (i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test, the Sequential Mann–Kendall test (SQMK) and Sen Slope (SS) is used to evaluate trends and magnitude. In contrast, wavelet analysis is used to assess the coherence. In general, precipitation increases in winter, summer and autumn, whereas it decreases in spring. The temperature increased significantly in winter and spring, while a significant increase in seasonal and annual runoff was evident. Annual NDVI increased, whereas the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) decreased. Generally, runoff has significant inter-annual coherences with regional environmental factors, and a significant coherence with NDVI. Monthly runoff has a positive coherence with temperature and NDVI, whereas it has a negative correlation with precipitation, NDWI, and NDSI. In general, ENSO, IOD and PDO show a positive correlation with runoff. The MWC findings indicate that annual runoff prevailed interannual signals with local environmental factors and with the Pacific Ocean, whereas interannual and interdecadal coherences are obvious with the Atlantic Ocean. The results have significant implications for decision-makers seeking to enhance water resource planning, disaster prevention, and mitigation, especially in global warming and the intensification of human activities that influence hydroclimatic changes at high altitudes.
Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan
The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, determining the extent of such variations on regional and local scales is imperative. We used monthly precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in northern Pakistan (NP) to document the observed changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. The station density in the NP is small and unevenly distributed; therefore, ERA-5 reanalysis data were used to supplement the observed dataset to assess the spatial trends in NP. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE), and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were performed to assess the trends. In addition, the wavelet analysis technique was used to determine the association of precipitation with various oceanic indices from 1960 to 2016. Results indicate that maximum precipitation was shown in the annual and summer seasons. In NP, annual, winter, spring, and summer precipitation declined, while an increase in autumn was observed at a rate of 0.43 mm/decade between 1989 and 2016. The spatial trends for observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets were almost similar in winter, spring, and autumn; however, some disagreement was observed in both datasets in the summer and annual precipitation trends in NP during 1960–2016. Between 1989 and 2016, summer and annual precipitation increased significantly in Region III. However, seasonal and annual precipitation decreased in NP between 1960 and 2016. Moreover, there were no prominent trends in annual precipitation until the mid-1980s, but an apparent increase from 1985 onwards. Annual precipitation increased in all elevations except at the 500–1000 m zone. The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) shared notable interannual coherences among all indices above 16–64 months. Inter-decadal coherence with the ENSO, AO (Arctic Oscillation), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in NP for 128 months and above. Generally, AO, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) exhibited less coherence with precipitation in NP. The regression of seasonal and annual precipitation revealed that winter and spring precipitation levels had higher linear regression with the AO and ENSO, respectively, while both the AO and ENSO also dominated at the annual scale. Similarly, the IOD and PDO indices had a higher influence in summer precipitation. The findings may help water resource managers and climate researchers develop a contingency plan for better water resource management policies in the face of changing climate change in Pakistan, particularly in NP.
IoT for Development of Smart Dairy Farming
Internet of things (IoT) and data-driven techniques are creating greater opportunities for smart dairy farming. The demand for milk is continuously increasing due to increasing population of the world. The consumption of the dairy products is more in developed countries as compared to developing countries. To meet this increased demand for milk products, better technological techniques for improving milk yield are required. It is expected that the use of IoT and different AI techniques can assist a farmer to overcome different traditional farming challenges and increase the milk production. In this research, the authors address different challenges that a dairy farmer has to face in daily life. Brief introduction of smart dairy farming (SDF) is presented with respect to the innovation in production and the processes of smart dairy farming. This review focuses on different aspects of smart dairy farming, and finally a state-of-the-art framework that can assist the farmers to increase the milk yield by using different latest technologies has been proposed. These technological methods can decrease the factors negatively affecting milk production and increase those positively affecting production with minimal resources.
Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations
Background The high burden of malaria and limited funding means there is a necessity to maximize the allocative efficiency of malaria control programmes. Quantitative tools are urgently needed to guide budget allocation decisions. Methods A geospatial epidemic model was coupled with costing data and an optimization algorithm to estimate the optimal allocation of budgeted and projected funds across all malaria intervention approaches. Interventions included long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent presumptive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp), seasonal mass chemoprevention in children (SMC), larval source management (LSM), mass drug administration (MDA), and behavioural change communication (BCC). The model was applied to six geopolitical regions of Nigeria in isolation and also the nation as a whole to minimize incidence and malaria-attributable mortality. Results Allocative efficiency gains could avert approximately 84,000 deaths or 15.7 million cases of malaria in Nigeria over 5 years. With an additional US$300 million available, approximately 134,000 deaths or 37.3 million cases of malaria could be prevented over 5 years. Priority funding should go to LLINs, IPTp and BCC programmes, and SMC should be expanded in seasonal areas. To minimize mortality, treatment expansion is critical and prioritized over some LLIN funding, while to minimize incidence, LLIN funding remained a priority. For areas with lower rainfall, LSM is prioritized over IRS but MDA is not recommended unless all other programmes are established. Conclusions Substantial reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality can be made by optimal targeting of investments to the right malaria interventions in the right areas.
An increasing trend in daily monsoon precipitation extreme indices over Pakistan and its relationship with atmospheric circulations
This study assessed spatiotemporal trends in daily monsoon precipitation extremes at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales (June, July, August, and September) and their links with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan. The study used observed precipitation data from fifty in-situ stations and reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) during 1981–2018. A suite of seven extreme precipitation indices and non-parametric statistical techniques were used to infer trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices. An increase in frequency and intensity of overall extreme indices was evident, with a maximum tendency in the country’s northwestern (z-score=>2.5), central, and eastern (z-score > 4) monsoon-dominant parts. The northern and southwestern parts of the country exhibited a slight decrease (z-score <–2) in frequency and intensity. The Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE) shows an increase in western parts (0.20 days) indicating a shift in the maxima of the monsoon precipitation. The regional precipitation shows an increase in wet days (R1 mm) with higher values of mMK (3.71) and SSE (0.3) in region 2 Similar results of moderate regional increase are evident for extreme indices except regions 1 and 3. The extreme 1-day maximum precipitation increased in region 3 (mMK: 1.39, SSE: 2.32). The extremely wet days (R99p TOT) precipitation has a moderate increase in all regions with a decrease in region 1. The temporal mutations showed dynamic changes, clearly reflecting the country’s historical extreme events. The frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes negatively correlated with the altitude (R = −0.00039). The probability density function (PDF) showed a significant increase in the density during June and September with a probabilistic positive shift during July and August. The intensified mid-latitude westerlies and subtropical zonal easterlies teleconnections, strengthening of the monsoon trough, and land-ocean thermal contrast are the potential drivers of the increasing trend in precipitation extremes. The current study could serve as a benchmark for future researchers and policymakers to devise effective mitigation strategies for sustainable development.
A Comprehensive Review on Thermal Coconversion of Biomass, Sludge, Coal, and Their Blends Using Thermogravimetric Analysis
Lignocellulosic biomass is a vital resource for providing clean future energy with a sustainable environment. Besides lignocellulosic residues, nonlignocellulosic residues such as sewage sludge from industrial and municipal wastes are gained much attention due to its large quantities and ability to produce cheap and clean energy to potentially replace fossil fuels. These cheap and abundantly resources can reduce global warming owing to their less polluting nature. The low-quality biomass and high ash content of sewage sludge-based thermal conversion processes face several disadvantages towards its commercialization. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize these residues in combination with coal for improvement in energy conversion processes. As per author information, no concrete study is available to discuss the synergy and decomposition mechanism of residues blending. The objective of this study is to present the state-of-the-art review based on the thermal coconversion of biomass/sewage sludge, coal/biomass, and coal/sewage sludge blends through thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to explore the synergistic effects of the composition, thermal conversion, and blending for bioenergy production. This paper will also contribute to detailing the operating conditions (heating rate, temperature, and residence time) of copyrolysis and cocombustion processes, properties, and chemical composition that may affect these processes and will provide a basis to improve the yield of biofuels from biomass/sewage sludge, coal/sewage sludge, and coal/biomass blends in thermal coconversion through thermogravimetric technique. Furthermore, the influencing factors and the possible decomposition mechanism are elaborated and discussed in detail. This study will provide recent development and future prospects for cothermal conversion of biomass, sewage, coal, and their blends.
Tenosynovial Giant Cell Tumor Treatment Revolution: Vimseltinib's Edge Over Pexidartinib
This paper compares vimseltinib and pexidartinib in treating TGCT, highlighting key differences in their efficacy and safety, with vimseltinib showing better tumor reduction. Vimseltinib is more selective for CSF1R, leading to fewer side effects and no liver toxicity, whereas pexidartinib carries a higher risk of hepatotoxicity. Overall, vimseltinib offers better effectiveness and safety.
How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries
Introduction With limited funds available, meeting global health targets requires countries to both mobilize and prioritize their health spending. Within this context, countries have recognized the importance of allocating funds for HIV as efficiently as possible to maximize impact. Over the past six years, the governments of 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America have used the Optima HIV tool to estimate the optimal allocation of HIV resources. Methods Each study commenced with a request by the national government for technical assistance in conducting an HIV allocative efficiency study using Optima HIV. Each study team validated the required data, calibrated the Optima HIV epidemic model to produce HIV epidemic projections, agreed on cost functions for interventions, and used the model to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds to best address national strategic plan targets. From a review and analysis of these 23 country studies, we extract common themes around the optimal allocation of HIV funding in different epidemiological contexts. Results and discussion The optimal distribution of HIV resources depends on the amount of funding available and the characteristics of each country's epidemic, response and targets. Universally, the modelling results indicated that scaling up treatment coverage is an efficient use of resources. There is scope for efficiency gains by targeting the HIV response towards the populations and geographical regions where HIV incidence is highest. Across a range of countries, the model results indicate that a more efficient allocation of HIV resources could reduce cumulative new HIV infections by an average of 18% over the years to 2020 and 25% over the years to 2030, along with an approximately 25% reduction in deaths for both timelines. However, in most countries this would still not be sufficient to meet the targets of the national strategic plan, with modelling results indicating that budget increases of up to 185% would be required. Conclusions Greater epidemiological impact would be possible through better targeting of existing resources, but additional resources would still be required to meet targets. Allocative efficiency models have proven valuable in improving the HIV planning and budgeting process.