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The air–sea exchange of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays an important role in mediating the climate state. The dominant role the SO plays in storing anthropogenic heat and carbon is a direct consequence of the unique and complex ocean circulation that exists there. Previous generations of climate models have struggled to accurately represent key SO properties and processes that influence the large-scale ocean circulation. This has resulted in low confidence ascribed to twenty-first-century projections of the state of the SO from previous generations of models. This analysis provides a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributed to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent important observationally based SO properties. Additionally, a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 performance relative to CMIP3 and CMIP5 is presented. CMIP6 models show improved performance in the surface wind stress forcing, simulating stronger and less equatorward-biased wind fields, translating into an improved representation of the Ekman upwelling over the Drake Passage latitudes. An increased number of models simulate an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport within observational uncertainty relative to previous generations; however, several models exhibit extremely weak transports. Generally, the upper SO remains biased warm and fresh relative to observations, and Antarctic sea ice extent remains poorly represented. While generational improvement is found in many metrics, persistent systematic biases are highlighted that should be a priority during model development. These biases need to be considered when interpreting projected trends or biogeochemical properties in this region.

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. Key Points Description of the Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model A cross‐time‐scale evaluation of the GC3 configuration is presented Overall, GC3 is an improvement on previous configurations

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models are increasingly employed to provide regional climate predictions. For the quality of forecasts to improve, regional biases in climate models must be diagnosed and reduced. The evolution of biases as initialized forecasts drift away from the observations is poorly understood, making it difficult to diagnose the causes of climate model biases. This study uses two seasonal forecast systems to examine drifts in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation, and compares them to the long-term bias in the free-running version of each model. Drifts are considered from daily to multi-annual time scales. We define three types of drift according to their relation with the long-term bias in the free-running model: asymptoting, overshooting and inverse drift. We find that precipitation almost always has an asymptoting drift. SST drifts on the other hand, vary between forecasting systems, where one often overshoots and the other often has an inverse drift. We find that some drifts evolve too slowly to have an impact on seasonal forecasts, even though they are important for climate projections. The bias found over the first few days can be very different from that in the free-running model, so although daily weather predictions can sometimes provide useful information on the causes of climate biases, this is not always the case. We also find that the magnitude of equatorial SST drifts, both in the Pacific and other ocean basins, depends on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Averaging over all hindcast years can therefore hide the details of ENSO state dependent drifts and obscure the underlying physical causes. Our results highlight the need to consider biases across a range of timescales in order to understand their causes and develop improved climate models.

In this study, the quality of near-surface current forecasts from the FOAM ocean forecasting system is assessed using the trajectories of Lagrangian drifting buoys. A method is presented for deriving pseudo-Eulerian estimates of ocean currents from the positions of Surface Velocity Program drifters and the resulting data are compared to velocities observed by the global tropical moored buoy array. A quantitative analysis of the global FOAM velocities is performed for the period 2007 and 2008 using currents derived from over 3000 unique drifters (providing an average of 650 velocity observations per day). A potential bias is identified in the Southern Ocean which appears to be caused by wind-slip in the drifter dataset as a result of drogue loss. The drifter-derived currents are also used to show how the data assimilation scheme and a recent system upgrade impact upon the quality of FOAM current forecasts.

The present generation of global climate models is characterised by insufficient reflection of short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean due to a misrepresentation of clouds. This is a significant concern as it leads to excessive heating of the ocean surface, sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we modify cloud microphysics in a recent version of the Met Office's Unified Model and show that choosing a more realistic value for the shape parameter of atmospheric ice crystals, in better agreement with theory and observations, benefits the simulation of short-wave radiation. In the model, for calculating the growth rate of ice crystals through deposition, the default assumption is that all ice particles are spherical in shape. We modify this assumption to effectively allow for oblique shapes or aggregates of ice crystals. Along with modified ice nucleation temperatures, we achieve a reduction in the annual-mean short-wave cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean by up to ∼4 W m−2 and seasonally much larger reductions compared to the control model. By slowing the growth of the ice phase, the model simulates substantially more supercooled liquid cloud.

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12[deg], and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4[deg]; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12[deg] global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ∼ 8% of regions < 500m deep, but this increases to ∼ 70% for a 1/72[deg] model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art.We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12[deg] global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-[straight epsilon] vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1/4[deg] global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1/72[deg] global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1/12[deg] global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1[deg] global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conclude that for computationally expensive models (e.g. for oceanographic research or operational oceanography), resolving scales to ∼ 1.5km would be routinely practical in about a decade given substantial effort on numerical and computational development. For complex Earth system models, this extends to about 2 decades, suggesting the focus here needs to be on improved process parameterisation to meet these challenges.

Oscillations at, or close to, the intertial frequency are widely observed in shelf seas where frictional damping is weak. In the vicinity of latitudes 30 degree N and S, such motions may become significantly enhanced by a resonance in which the local inertial frequency coincides with that of diurnal forcing. Under these conditions, regular daily variations in wind stress tend to produce large anticyclonic motions that may extend throughout the water column as shown in the analytical theory of Craig. Here the authors examine new observations from a location close to the critical latitude on the Namibian shelf in the Southern Hemisphere. The measurements cover almost the full depth (175 m) of the water column by using upward and downward looking ADCPs suspended in midwater. The observed flow involves a steady drift to the north (maximum similar to 11 cm s super(-1) at 40 m) but the kinetic energy budget is dominated by anticyclonic circular motions with speeds in the surface layers exceeding 40 cm s super(-1) at times. Comparably energetic motions (speed >35 cm s super(-1)) were found in the lower layers of the stratified water column where, below 70 m, there was a consistent phase shift, relative to the near-surface motion, of similar to 180 degree . During the observation period, the winds at the nearest land station, 130 km distant, exhibited significant diurnal variation with a stress magnitude of up to 0.1 Pa and almost equal, and in-phase, components of coast-normal and coast-parallel wind stress. The principal features of the observations are interpreted in terms of an analytical model of two uncoupled layers in which the bottom layer is forced by through the coast-normal pressure gradient set up by the oscillatory wind stress. This pressure gradient is of comparable magnitude, but opposite in phase, to the surface forcing and this accounts for the relatively energetic phase-shifted motions in the lower layers. In areas of low tidal energy close to the critical latitude, diurnal oscillations of the kind observed here should be considered as an important candidate source for vertical mixing.

During the last 100 years, many desert grasslands have been replaced by shrublands. One possible mechanism by which shrubs outcompete grasses is through the release of compounds that interfere with neighboring plants. Our objective was to examine the movement of secondary compounds from the leaf surface of creosotebush and tarbush to surrounding soil surfaces via precipitation. Units consisting of a funnel and bottle were used to collect stemflow, throughfall, and interspace precipitation samples from 20 creosotebush (two morphotypes) and 10 tarbush plants during three summer rainfall events in 1998. Precipitation samples were analyzed for total phenolics (both species) and nordihydroguaiaretic acid (creosotebush only). Phenolics were detected in throughfall and stemflow of both species with stemflow containing greater concentrations than throughfall (0.088 and 0.086 mg/ml for stemflow and 0.022 and 0.014 mg/ml for throughfall in creosotebush morphotypes U and V, respectively: 0.044 and 0.006 mg/ml for tarbush stemflow and throughfall, respectively). Nordihydroguaiaretic acid was not found in any precipitation collections. The results show that phenolic compounds produced by creosotebush and tarbush can be transported to the soil surface by precipitation, but whether concentrations are ecologically significant is uncertain. Nordihydroguaiaretic acid was not present in the runoff from creosotebush.