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A phase 2 trial compared various doses of milvexian with standard enoxaparin for thromboprophylaxis after total knee replacement. Venous thromboembolism occurred in 7 to 8% of patients who received 200 mg of milvexian once or twice daily and in 21% of those who received enoxaparin. The risk of bleeding was similar with milvexian and enoxaparin.

The benefit of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation is based on a balance between reduction in ischaemic stroke and increase in major bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve the prognostication of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. We developed and internally validated a new biomarker-based risk score for major bleeding in 14 537 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to apixaban versus warfarin in the ARISTOTLE trial and externally validated it in 8468 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial. Plasma samples for determination of candidate biomarker concentrations were obtained at randomisation. Major bleeding events were centrally adjudicated. The predictive values of biomarkers and clinical variables were assessed with Cox regression models. The most important variables were included in the score with weights proportional to the model coefficients. The ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00412984 and NCT00262600, respectively. The most important predictors for major bleeding were the concentrations of the biomarkers growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs) and haemoglobin, age, and previous bleeding. The ABC-bleeding score (age, biomarkers [GDF-15, cTnT-hs, and haemoglobin], and clinical history [previous bleeding]) score yielded a higher c-index than the conventional HAS-BLED and the newer ORBIT scores for major bleeding in both the derivation cohort (0·68 [95% CI 0·66–0·70] vs 0·61 [0·59–0·63] vs 0·65 [0·62–0·67], respectively; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0008). ABC-bleeding score also yielded a higher c-index score in the the external validation cohort (0·71 [95% CI 0·68–0·73] vs 0·62 [0·59–0·64] for HAS-BLED vs 0·68 [0·65–0·70] for ORBIT; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0016). A modified ABC-bleeding score using alternative biomarkers (haematocrit, cTnI-hs, cystatin C, or creatinine clearance) also outperformed the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores. The ABC-bleeding score, using age, history of bleeding, and three biomarkers (haemoglobin, cTn-hs, and GDF-15 or cystatin C/CKD-EPI) was internally and externally validated and calibrated in large cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulation therapy. The ABC-bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores and should be useful as decision support on anticoagulation treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation. BMS, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche Diagnostics.

Time in therapeutic range (TTR) of international normalized ratio (INR) of 2.0 to 3.0 is important for the safety and effectiveness of warfarin anticoagulation. There are few data on TTR among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in community-based clinical practice. Using the US Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF), we examined TTR (using a modified Rosendaal method) among 5,210 patients with AF on warfarin and treated at 155 sites. Patients were grouped into quartiles based on TTR data. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with generalized estimating equations was used to determine patient and provider factors associated with the lowest (worst) TTR. Overall, 59% of the measured INR values were between 2.0 and 3.0, with an overall mean and median TTR of 65% ± 20% and 68% (interquartile range [IQR] 53%-79%). The median times below and above the therapeutic range were 17% (IQR 8%-29%) and 10% (IQR 3%-19%), respectively. Patients with renal dysfunction, advanced heart failure, frailty, prior valve surgery, and higher risk for bleeding (ATRIA score) or stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score) had significantly lower TTR (P < .0001 for all). Patients treated at anticoagulation clinics had only slightly higher median TTR (69%) than those not (66%) (P < .0001). Among patients with AF in US clinical practices, TTR on warfarin is suboptimal, and those at highest predicted risks for stroke and bleeding were least likely to be in therapeutic range.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Little is known about the impact of OSA on AF treatment and long-term outcomes. We studied whether patients with OSA have a greater likelihood of progressing to more persistent forms of AF or require more hospitalizations and/or worse outcomes compared with patients without OSA. A total of 10,132 patients were enrolled between June 2010 and August 2011 in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) and followed for up to 2 years. The prevalence of OSA and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment was captured at baseline. The association between OSA and major cardiovascular outcomes was analyzed using multivariable hierarchical logistic regression modeling and Cox frailty regression model. Of the 10,132 patients with AF, 1,841 had OSA. Patients with OSA were more symptomatic (22% vs 16% severe/disabling symptoms; P < .0001) and more often on rhythm control therapy (35% vs 31%; P = .0037). In adjusted analyses, patients with OSA had higher risk of hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .0078), but no difference in the risks of death (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.77-1.15; P = .54); the composite of CV death, myocardial infarction, and stroke/transient ischemic attack (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85-1.34; P = .57); major bleeding (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.96-1.46; P = .11); or AF progression (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.28; P = .51). Patients with OSA on CPAP treatment were less likely to progress to more permanent forms of AF compared with patients without CPAP (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94; P = .021). Compared with those without, AF patients with OSA have worse symptoms and higher risks of hospitalization, but similar mortality, major adverse cardiovascular outcome, and AF progression rates. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT01165710 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and multiple studies have reported increasing AF incidence rates over time, although the underlying explanations remain unclear. To estimate AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 in a community-based setting and to investigate possible explanations for increasing AF by evaluating the changing features of incident AF cases and the pool of patients at risk for AF over time. This cohort study included 500 684 patients who received primary care and other health care services for more than 2 years through a single integrated health care delivery network in Pennsylvania. Data collection was conducted from January 2003 to December 2018. The base study population had no documentation of AF in the electronic medical record for at least 2 years prior to baseline. Data analysis was conducted from May to December 2019. Incident AF cases were identified through diagnostic codes recorded at inpatient or outpatient encounters. Age- and sex-adjusted AF incidence rates were estimated by calendar year from 2006 to 2018 both overall and across subgroups, including according to diagnostic setting (inpatient vs outpatient) and priority (primary vs secondary diagnosis). Among 514 293 patients meeting criteria for the base study population, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 47 (18) years and 282 103 (54.9%) were women; 13 609 (2.6%) met AF diagnostic criteria on or prior to the baseline date and were excluded. Among 500 684 patients free of AF at baseline, standardized AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 increased from 4.74 (95% CI, 4.58-4.90) to 6.82 (95% CI, 6.65-7.00) cases per 1000 person-years, increasing significantly over time (P < .001). Incidence rates increased in all age and sex subgroups, although absolute rate increases were largest among those aged 85 years or older. The fraction of incident AF cases among individuals aged 85 years or older increased from 135 of 1075 (12.6%) in 2006 to 451 of 2427 (18.6%) in 2017. Patients with incident AF were more likely over time to have high body mass index (1351 of 3389 patients [39.9%] in 2006-2008 vs 4504 of 9214 [48.9%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), hypertension (2764 [81.6%] in 2006-2008 vs 7937 [86.1%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), and ischemic stroke (328 [9.7%] in 2006-2008 vs 1455 [15.8%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), but less likely to have coronary artery disease (1533 [45.2%] in 2006-2008 vs 3810 [41.4%] in 2015-2018; P < .001). Among 22 077 new cases of AF, 9146 (41.4%) were diagnosed as inpatients and 5731 (26.0%) as the primary diagnosis. Incidence rates of AF increased significantly in all diagnostic setting and priority pairings (eg, inpatient, primary: rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). Among patients at risk for AF, high BMI and hypertension increased over time (BMI: 71 433 of 198 245 [36.0%] in 2007 to 130 218 of 282 270 [46.1%] in 2017; hypertension: 79 977 [40.3%] in 2007 to 134 404 [47.6%] in 2017). Documentation of short-term ECG increased over time (23 297 of 207 349 [11.2%] in 2008 to 45 027 [16.0%] in 2017); however, long-term ECG monitoring showed no change (1871 [0.9%] in 2007 to 4036 [1.4%] in 2017). In this community-based study, AF incidence rates increased significantly during the study period. Concurrent increases were observed in AF risk factors in the at-risk population and short-term ECG use.

Oral vitamin K antagonists are highly efficacious in the prevention and treatment of thromboembolic disease. Optimal use of these agents in clinical practice is challenged by their narrow therapeutic window. The proportion of time spent in the International Normalized Ratio (INR) range of 2.0–3.0 [time in the therapeutic range (TTR)] has been closely associated with adverse outcomes, i.e., stroke, hemorrhage, mortality. Although TTR is a validated marker, it has several limitations. TTR does not capture short-term risks associated with highly variable periods or periods characterized by extreme deviations in INR. Because TTR measurement is limited to consecutive periods of warfarin exposure, it does not inform the risks associated with gap periods of 56 days or greater as these time intervals are excluded from end-point rate calculations. Because individuals with gaps in monitoring represent a different patient population than those without gaps, e.g., less adherent, more acutely ill, more frequent transitions in health status, TTR analyses are likely most valid and informative for individuals with uninterrupted monitoring of the INR. Duration of warfarin therapy and patient-specific factors have also been shown to influence TTR. Younger age, female sex, lower income, black race, frequent hospitalizations, polypharmacy, active cancer, decompensated heart failure, substance abuse, psychiatric disorders, dementia, and chronic liver disease have all been associated with lower TTR. Targeted strategies to improve TTR are urgently needed.

In this study of research published in six prominent medical journals, the proportion of female first authors increased from 6 percent in 1970 to 29 percent in 2004 and the proportion of female senior authors increased from 4 percent to 19 percent. These increases have occurred during a period of dramatic growth in the number of female physicians — about 50 percent of medical students are now women, as compared with only 6 percent in 1960. In this study of research published in six prominent medical journals, the proportion of female first authors increased from 6 percent in 1970 to 29 percent in 2004 and the proportion of female senior authors increased from 4 percent to 19 percent. During the past four decades, the participation of women in medicine has increased dramatically. Women now represent 49 percent of all medical students, 1 as compared with 6 percent in 1960. 2 Overall, 25 percent of practicing physicians in the United States are women, 3 and women now make up 32 percent of full-time medical faculty members. 4 However, there is considerable evidence that women continue to be underrepresented in the top tiers of academic medicine. 5 – 7 Women currently make up 10 percent of medical school deans, 11 percent of department chairs, and 14 percent of full professors among the clinical faculty in medical . . .

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of stroke that can be attenuated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Vitamin K antagonist use is limited, in part, by the high incidence of complications when patients' international normalized ratios (INRs) deviate from the target range. The primary objective of ARISTOTLE is to determine if the factor Xa inhibitor, apixaban, is noninferior to warfarin at reducing the combined endpoint of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) and systemic embolism in patients with AF and at least 1 additional risk factor for stroke. We have randomized 18,206 patients from over 1,000 centers in 40 countries. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive apixaban or warfarin using a double-blind, double-dummy design. International normalized ratios are monitored and warfarin (or placebo) is adjusted aiming for a target INR range of 2 to 3 using a blinded, encrypted point-of-care device. Minimum treatment is 12 months, and maximum expected exposure is 4 years. Time to accrual of at least 448 primary efficacy events will determine treatment duration. The key secondary objectives are to determine if apixaban is superior to warfarin for the combined endpoint of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) and systemic embolism, and for all-cause death. These will be tested after the primary objective using a closed test procedure. The noninferiority boundary is 1.38; apixaban will be declared noninferior if the 95% CI excludes the possibility that the primary outcome rate with apixaban is >1.38 times higher than with warfarin. ARISTOTLE will determine whether apixaban is noninferior or superior to warfarin in preventing stroke and systemic embolism; whether apixaban has particular benefits in the warfarin-naïve population; whether it reduces the combined rate of stroke, systemic embolism, and death; and whether it impacts bleeding.

Significant racial/ethnic differences exist in the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, less is known about racial/ethnic differences in quality of life (QoL), treatment, and outcomes associated with AF. Using data from the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation, we compared clinical characteristics, QoL, management strategies, and long-term outcomes associated with AF among various racial/ethnic groups. We analyzed 9,542 participants with AF (mean age 74 ± 11 years, 43% women, 91% white, 5% black, 4% Hispanic) from 174 centers. Compared with AF patients identified as white race, patients identified as Hispanic ethnicity and those identified as black race were younger, were more often women, and had more cardiac and noncardiac comorbidities. Black patients were more symptomatic with worse QoL and were less likely to be treated with a rhythm control strategy than other racial/ethnic groups. There were no significant racial/ethnic differences in CHA2DS2-VASc stroke or ATRIA bleeding risk scores and rates of oral anticoagulation use were similar. However, racial and ethnic minority populations treated with warfarin spent a lower median time in therapeutic range of international normalized ratio (59% blacks vs 68% whites vs 62% Hispanics, P < .0001). There was no difference in long-term outcomes associated with AF between the 3 groups at a median follow-up of 2.1 years. Relative to white and Hispanic patients, black patients with AF had more symptoms, were less likely to receive rhythm control interventions, and had lower quality of warfarin management. Despite these differences, clinical events at 2 years were similar by race and ethnicity.

The Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial showed that apixaban is better than warfarin at prevention of stroke or systemic embolism, causes less bleeding, and results in lower mortality. We assessed in this trial's participants how results differed according to patients' CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, and HAS-BLED scores, used to predict the risk of stroke and bleeding. ARISTOTLE was a double-blind, randomised trial that enrolled 18 201 patients with atrial fibrillation in 39 countries. Patients were randomly assigned apixaban 5 mg twice daily (n=9120) or warfarin (target international normalised ratio 2·0–3·0; n=9081). The primary endpoint was stroke or systemic embolism. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding. We calculated CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, and HAS-BLED scores of patients at randomisation. Efficacy analyses were by intention to treat, and safety analyses were of the population who received the study drug. ARISTOTLE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00412984. Apixaban significantly reduced stroke or systemic embolism with no evidence of a differential effect by risk of stroke (CHADS2 1, 2, or ≥3, p for interaction=0·4457; or CHA2DS2VASc 1, 2, or ≥3, p for interaction=0·1210) or bleeding (HAS-BLED 0–1, 2, or ≥3, p for interaction=0·9422). Patients who received apixaban had lower rates of major bleeding than did those who received warfarin, with no difference across all score categories (CHADS2, p for interaction=0·4018; CHA2DS2VASc, p for interaction=0·2059; HAS-BLED, p for interaction=0·7127). The relative risk reduction in intracranial bleeding tended to be greater in patients with HAS-BLED scores of 3 or higher (hazard ratio [HR] 0·22, 95% CI 0·10–0·48) than in those with HAS-BLED scores of 0–1 (HR 0·66, 0·39–1·12; p for interaction=0·0604). Because apixaban has benefits over warfarin that are consistent across patient risk of stroke and bleeding as assessed by the CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, and HAS-BLED scores, these scores might be less relevant when used to tailor apixaban treatment to individual patients than they are for warfarin. Further improvement in risk stratification for both stroke and bleeding is needed, particularly for patients with atrial fibrillation at low risk for these events. Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer.