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Background Emicizumab (ACE910) is a bispecific antibody mimicking the cofactor function of activated coagulation factor VIII. In phase I–I/II studies, emicizumab reduced the bleeding frequency in patients with severe hemophilia A, regardless of the presence of factor VIII inhibitors, at once-weekly subcutaneous doses of 0.3, 1, and 3 mg/kg. Methods Using the phase I–I/II study data, population pharmacokinetic and repeated time-to-event (RTTE) modeling were performed to quantitatively characterize the relationship between the pharmacokinetics of emicizumab and reduction in bleeding frequency. Simulations were then performed to identify the minimal exposure expected to achieve zero bleeding events for 1 year in at least 50% of patients and to select the dosing regimens to be tested in phase III studies. Results The RTTE model adequately predicted the bleeding onset over time as a function of plasma emicizumab concentration. Simulations suggested that plasma emicizumab concentrations of ≥  45 μg/mL should result in zero bleeding events for 1 year in at least 50% of patients. This efficacious exposure provided the basis for selecting previously untested dosing regimens of 1.5 mg/kg once weekly, 3 mg/kg every 2 weeks, and 6 mg/kg every 4 weeks for phase III studies. Conclusions A pharmacometric approach guided the phase III dose selection of emicizumab in hemophilia A, without conducting a conventional dose-finding study. Phase III studies with the selected dosing regimens are currently ongoing. This case study indicates that a pharmacometric approach can substitute for a conventional dose-finding study in rare diseases and will streamline the drug development process.

The pharmacokinetics (PKs) of mycophenolic acid (MPA) exhibit considerable complexity and large variability. We developed a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model to predict the complex PK of MPA by examining an absorption model. Forty‐two patients who had undergone renal transplantation were included in this study. popPK analysis, incorporating several absorption models, was performed using the nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling program NONMEM. The MPA area under the concentration‐time curve at 0–12 h (AUC0–12) was simulated using the final model to calculate the recommended dose. The PK of MPA was adequately described using a two‐compartment model incorporating sequential zero‐ and first‐order absorption with lag time. Total body weight, renal function (RF), and posttransplantation day (PTD) were included as covariates affecting MPA PK. The final model estimates were 7.56, 11.6 L/h, 104.0 L, 17.3 L/h, 169.0 L, 0.0453, 0.283, and 1.95 h for apparent nonrenal clearance, apparent renal clearance, apparent central volume of distribution, apparent intercompartmental clearance, apparent peripheral volume of distribution, absorption half‐life, lag time, and duration of zero‐order absorption, respectively. Simulation results showed that a dose regimen of 500–1000 mg twice daily is recommended during the early posttransplantation period. However, dose reduction could be required with increased PTD and decreased RF. The complex PK of MPA was explained using an absorption model. The developed popPK model can provide useful information regarding individual dosing regimens based on PTD and RF.

Ibandronate, a nitrogen-containing bisphosphonate, is a bone resorption inhibitor widely used to prevent and treat osteoporosis. To optimize the design for a long-term clinical study of ibandronate, modeling and simulation (M&S) was performed based on the result of population pharmacodynamic analysis using the data of a short-term clinical study. A population pharmacodynamic model was constructed by the urinary C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (uCTx) and the lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) data obtained in clinical studies, including a phase II study of Japanese osteoporosis patients treated with ibandronate for 6 months. Changes in BMD over a period of 3 years were simulated from the population pharmacodynamic parameters of the patients in this phase II study. The relationship between uCTx and BMD was well described by this modeling. The functions of disease progression and supplemental treatment were incorporated into the model to simulate a long-term clinical study with high accuracy. A long-term clinical study with a 3-year treatment was conducted after this M&S. The percentage change from baseline in observed BMD values were found to be similar to the prospectively simulated values. This study showed that M&S could be a useful and powerful tool for designing and conducting long-term clinical studies when carried out in the following sequence: (1) conduct a short-term clinical study; (2) perform M and (3) conduct the long-term clinical study. Application of this procedure to various other treatment agents will establish the usefulness of M&S for long-term clinical studies and bring further efficiencies to drug development.