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"Iimi, Atsushi"
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Performance-Based Road Contracts in Zambia
Public infrastructure procurement involves significant incentive problems because contracts are often incomplete. Output- and performance-based road contract (OPRC) is an innovative contractual scheme that has been developed in the road sector. Unlike traditional input-based procurement methods, contractors can freely design, invest in, and maintain roads to deliver an agreed level of road functionality, which helps to ensure the sustainability of road maintenance. Using data from Zambia, this paper shows that major reconstruction works under OPRC arrangements are effective at increasing agricultural production. In particular, small-scale farmers who currently use only a few advanced inputs, can benefit from improved connectivity from improved roads. The results also indicate the possibility of improved accessibility, which allows new economic opportunities for farmers who currently do not participate in market transactions.
Journal Article
Spatial Autocorrelation Panel Regression: Agricultural Production and Transport Connectivity
Transport infrastructure is an important determinant of agricultural productivity. Using various new spatial data, the paper measures different types of transport accessibility and estimates their impacts in Ethiopia. The paper takes advantage of a historical event that Ethiopia, a landlocked country, ceased freight rail operations connecting its capital and the main seaport in the late 2000s. Using the substantial changes in transport accessibility, the spatial autocorrelation panel regression is applied to show that the proximity to close markets and the access to the port are of particular importance for agricultural production. The elasticity is estimated at about −0.05 to −0.13, depending on type of accessibility. It is also found that there are considerable spillover effects that come from the spatial autocorrelation errors, meaning that crop production at one place is affected by its neighborhood environment, possibly including land fertility and weather conditions.
Journal Article
Estimating the demand for informal public transport: evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar
Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urban infrastructure development tends to lag behind rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growing gap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes, the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. The paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibus sector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a recent user survey of thousands of people. It is found that the demand for informal public transport is generally inelastic. Essentially, people have no other choice but to use this kind of public transport. While the time elasticity is estimated at − 0.02 to − 0.05, the price elasticity is − 0.05 to − 0.06 for short-distance travelers, who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demand also increases with income. Regardless of the income level, everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functions indicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in transit. The paper shows that combining these improvements and fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducing traffic congestion in the city.
Journal Article
Energy-Saving Effects of Progressive Pricing and Free CFL Bulb Distribution Program
In Africa, about 70 percent of the total population still lives without electricity. Significant resources are needed to meet the gap. Demand-side management is crucial to curb the increasing demand even in developing countries. A traditional approach is to raise prices, but promoting energy-efficient products such as compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) bulbs is also a win-win proposition. While end-users can reduce their spending, power utilities can avoid costly investments in new generation capacity. This paper estimates the effects of progressive pricing as well as CFL distribution program in Ethiopia. It is found that the increasing block tariff structure reduced the demand: the price elasticity is estimated at 0.29. This is particularly useful to influence large-volume users, who are presumably the rich. The CFL program is also found effective to contain the electricity demand. The estimated impact is about 45 kWh per customer. This is significant energy savings particularly for low-volume users.
Journal Article
Auction Reforms for Effective Official Development Assistance
Auctions, which are applicable to aid-related procurement systems, have been recently recognized as an important tool for improving economic efficiency. Using data on procurement auctions for Japanese official development assistance projects, the equilibrium bid function is estimated. The data reveals that a 1% increase in the number of bidders decreases the equilibrium bid by about 0.2%. This implies that strengthening competition at procurement auctions lowers contract prices and mitigates the heavy indebtedness of developing countries. Auctions are also instrumental in fostering local business environment and governance. For intensifying bidding competition, it is useful to introduce an electronic bidding system, encourage local firms to jointly bid, and relax excessive qualification requirements.
Journal Article
Multidimensional Auctions for Public Energy Efficiency Projects: Evidence from Japanese Esco Market
Competitive bidding is an important policy tool for governments to procure goods and services at the lowest possible cost in the market. Under the traditional public procurement system, however, it is difficult to purchase a highly customized object, such as energy efficiency services, because not only prices but also other nonmonetary aspects need to be taken into account. Multidimensional auctions are useful in such cases. The paper examines the cluster of characteristics of the winning bids of multidimensional auctions for public energy service company (ESCO) projects in Japan. As theory predicts, it is found that the competition effect is significant. Other institutional aspects—such as preannouncement of an energy savings target—are also found important to promote energy efficiency. The results also indicate that the public sector should absorb the regulatory and institutional risks that are related to ESCO projects.
Journal Article
Testing Low-Balling Strategy in Rural Road Procurement
A \"low-balling strategy\" by bidding contractors has increasingly been recognized as an important issue in public infrastructure procurement. Public works contracts are often imperfect and renegotiated after the contract award. Given the expectation for ex post adjustments, bidders seem motivated to take advantage of the low-balling strategy. This paper analyzes the endogeneity between the bid strategy and ex post adjustments. Using procurement data on rural road projects in Nepal, it shows that the bid strategy and adjustments are determined endogenously in the system. Anticipating cost and time overruns, firms would likely undercut normal bid prices. Then, ex post contract adjustments actually happen, because of their too aggressive bids.
Journal Article
Did Botswana Escape from the Resource Curse?
Botswana is typical of the countries that are endowed with abundant natural resources. Although it is commonly accepted that resource-rich economies tend to fail in accelerating growth, Botswana has experienced the most remarkable economic performance in the region. Using the latest cross-country data, this study empirically readdresses the question of whether resource abundance can contribute to growth. It finds that governance determines the extent to which the growth effects of resource wealth can materialize. In developing countries in particular, the quality of regulation, such as the predictability of changes of regulations, and anticorruption policies, such as transparency and accountability in the public sector, are most important for effective natural resource management and growth.
eBook
Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana
Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.
eBook