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The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

This paper analyses the allocation of climate adaptation aid in subnational and local jurisdictions in Ecuador. It examines the influence of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and local capacity as independent variables of aid allocation. The study introduces projections of physical vulnerability to determine whether inter-generational aspects of climate justice are taken into account and uses geographically weighted regression models to study the spatial distribution of aid allocation. The findings show that physical and socioeconomic vulnerabilities influence adaptation aid allocation. However, projected changes in patterns of precipitation and temperatures are not associated with this variable. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of current climate aid is uneven, leaving clusters of vulnerable jurisdictions unattended. Finally, the study finds no association between local capacity and adaptation aid allocation. Findings suggest that the allocation of adaptation aid may not contribute to achieving adaptation scenarios where justice for current and future generations is central to decision-making. Este artículo analiza la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación climática en jurisdicciones subnacionales y locales en Ecuador. Examina la influencia de la vulnerabilidad física y socioeconómica y la capacidad local como variables independientes de la asignación de la ayuda. El estudio introduce proyecciones de vulnerabilidad física para determinar si se tienen en cuenta los aspectos intergeneracionales de la justicia climática y utiliza modelos de regresión ponderados geográficamente para estudiar la distribución espacial de la asignación de ayuda. Los hallazgos muestran que las vulnerabilidades físicas y socioeconómicas influyen en la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación. Sin embargo, los cambios proyectados en los patrones de precipitación y temperatura no están asociados con esta variable. Además, la distribución espacial de la ayuda climática actual es desigual, dejando desatendidos grupos de jurisdicciones vulnerables. Finalmente, el estudio no encuentra asociación entre la capacidad local y la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación. Los hallazgos sugieren que la tendencia actual puede no contribuir a lograr escenarios de adaptación que sean justos para las generaciones actuales y futuras.

The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

Globally, increasing competition for water and the effects of climate change have heightened the need to assess the sustainability of irrigation systems, particularly in strategic ecosystems such as the Andean páramos. However, there is a gap in methodological tools that integrate indicators adapted to community-based contexts and aligned with global frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Principles for Responsible Investment in Agriculture and Food Systems (RAI Principles). This study aims to define indicators for evaluating the sustainability of community-managed irrigation systems in Ecuador. The MESMIS framework and the Delphi technique were applied using a participatory approach that involved community leaders, technicians, academics, and students. A total of 31 indicators were defined, organized into seven attributes and five dimensions (environmental, social, economic, political, and technological), and aligned with nine SDGs and seven RAI Principles. The results reveal critical issues related to water use efficiency, governance, equity, and system resilience. The proposed framework enables a comprehensive and context-specific evaluation of irrigation systems and provides a practical tool for public policy design. In conclusion, this research helps bridge the existing methodological gap and reinforces the role of community irrigation systems as key pillars for sustainable and resilient agriculture. A nivel global, la creciente competencia por el agua y los efectos del cambio climático han acentuado la necesidad de evaluar la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de riego, especialmente en ecosistemas estratégicos como los páramos andinos. Sin embargo, existe un vacío en herramientas metodológicas que integren indicadores adaptados a contextos comunitarios y alineados con marcos globales como los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) y los Principios de Inversión Responsable en Agricultura (CSA-IRA). Esta investigación tiene como objetivo definir los indicadores para evaluar la sostenibilidad de sistemas de riego comunitarios en Ecuador. Se consideró la metodología MESMIS y la técnica Delphi mediante un enfoque participativo que incluyó líderes comunitarios, técnicos, académicos y estudiantes. Se definieron 31 indicadores, organizados en siete atributos y cinco dimensiones (ambiental, social, económica, política y tecnológica), articulados con nueve ODS y siete Principios CSA-IRA. Los resultados evidencian puntos críticos en la eficiencia hídrica, gobernanza, equidad y resiliencia de los sistemas. La propuesta permite una evaluación integral y contextualizada de los sistemas de riego, y ofrece una herramienta práctica para el diseño de políticas públicas. En conclusión, se contribuye a cerrar el vacío metodológico existente y se fortalece el rol de los sistemas de riego comunitarios como pilares para una agricultura sostenible y resiliente. A nivel global, la creciente competencia por el agua y los efectos del cambio climático han acentuado la necesidad de evaluar la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de riego, especialmente en ecosistemas estratégicos como los páramos andinos. Sin embargo, existe un vacío en herramientas metodológicas que integren indicadores adaptados a contextos comunitarios y alineados con marcos globales como los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) y los Principios de Inversión Responsable en Agricultura (CSA-IRA). Esta investigación tiene como objetivo definir los indicadores para evaluar la sostenibilidad de sistemas de riego comunitarios en Ecuador. Se consideró la metodología MESMIS y la técnica Delphi mediante un enfoque participativo que incluyó líderes comunitarios, técnicos, académicos y estudiantes. Se definieron 31 indicadores, organizados en siete atributos y cinco dimensiones (ambiental, social, económica, política y tecnológica), articulados con nueve ODS y siete Principios CSA-IRA. Los resultados evidencian puntos críticos en la eficiencia hídrica, gobernanza, equidad y resiliencia de los sistemas. La propuesta permite una evaluación integral y contextualizada de los sistemas de riego, y ofrece una herramienta práctica para el diseño de políticas públicas. En conclusión, se contribuye a cerrar el vacío metodológico existente y se fortalece el rol de los sistemas de riego comunitarios como pilares para una agricultura sostenible y resiliente.

This article identifies homogeneous precipitation regions in Ecuador and their relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using monthly records from 215 rain stations for the 1968–2014 period. A k-means clustering analysis was used to divide the study area into k regions based on monthly and annual precipitation variables and geographic location (latitude, longitude, and altitude). The robustness of each cluster was evaluated using the “silhouette” coefficient. The groupings were then validated using the regional vector method (RVM). Twenty-two regions of homogeneous precipitation were identified. Seven regions are related to regional climate processes on the Pacific coast (unimodal precipitation). Two regions in the western foothills of the Andes show significant orographic rainfall. Eight regions in the inter-Andean region present a bimodal precipitation regime characterized by a reduction of precipitation from north to south and local variability. Five regions were identified in the Amazon area: three on the outer flanks of the eastern mountain range, one sub-Andean area, and one in the Amazon plain with regular rainfall throughout the year, influenced by the Amazon basin. Although Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is strongly related to precipitation in the coastal regions of Ecuador, our findings indicate that SST influence varies among the regions of the country because Ecuador is influenced by the modes of precipitation variability in Colombia and Peru.

The aggressiveness of the rain contributes to the erosivity of the soil in high mountain regions, and therefore to the sedimentation in the lower part of the watershed. The reduction of uncertainty about the aggressiveness of rain in coastal and Andean regions contributes to the formulation of mitigation measures that contribute to the reduction of erosion and loss of nutrients. This study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of climatic aggressiveness in the Guayas river watershed located on the coast and the equatorial Andes. Registered monthly data of 30 rainfall stations for the period of 1968-2014 was selected. Homogeneous precipitation zones were determined by the k-means method. The results indicated two predominant homogenous regions, the first located to the west in the coastal and Andean zone (85.2% of the area of the Watershed), with a high and very high aggressiveness index, while the distribution of precipitation in the second region (High mountain) resulted from very low to low aggressiveness. The greater potential aggressiveness of rain corresponds to a greater accumulation of average annual rainfall, which indicates a high seasonal influence of rainfall, that is, a greater amount of rainfall can precipitate in a reduced number of consecutive months. The concentration values reveal a regional gradient in the east-west direction, which goes from moderately to strongly seasonal. The trend analysis of the monthly rainfall concentration shows no significant changes in the study period. However, our findings explain why the western and southern region of the Guayas river watershed is exposed to sedimentation problems in the lower part, product of the erosive capacity of rain in the higher and middle part of the watershed. La agresividad de la lluvia contribuye a la erosividad del suelo en regiones de alta montaña, y por tal a la sedimentación en la parte baja de la cuenca. La reducción de incertidumbre acerca de la agresividad de la lluvia en regiones costeras y andinas contribuye a la formulación de medidas de mitigación que contribuyan a la reducción de erosión y pérdida de nutrientes. Este estudio presenta un análisis espacial y temporal de la agresividad climática en la cuenca del río Guayas ubicada en la costa y Andes ecuatoriales. Se seleccionó datos mensuales registrados de 30 estaciones pluviométricas para el periodo de 1968-2014. Se determinó zonas homogéneas de precipitación mediante el método k-means. Los resultados indicaron dos regiones homogeneas predominantes, la primera ubicada al oeste en la zona costera y andina (85.2% del área de la Cuenca), con un índice de agresividad alto y muy alto, mientras que la distribución de la precipitación en la segunda región (Alta montaña) resultó de muy baja a baja agresividad. La mayor agresividad potencial de la lluvia le corresponde una mayor acumulación de precipitación promedio anual, lo que indica una alta influencia estacional de las lluvias, i.e, una mayor cantidad de lluvia puede precipitar en un número reducido de meses consecutivos. Los valores de concentración revelan una gradiente regional en dirección este-oeste, que va de moderadamente a fuertemente estacional. El análisis de tendencias de la concentración de lluvia mensual no muestra cambios significativos en el periodo de estudio. No obstante, nuestros hallazgos explican el porqué la región oeste y sur de la cuenca del río Guayas está expuesta a problemas de sedimentación en la parte baja, producto de la capacidad erosiva de la lluvia en la parte alta y media de la cuenca. A agressividade das chuvas contribui com a erosão do solo nas regiões de alta montanha e, portanto, para a sedimentação na parte inferior da bacia. A redução da incerteza sobre a agressividade das chuvas nas regiões costeiras e andinas contribui para a formulação de medidas de mitigação que contribuem para a redução da erosão e perda de nutrientes. Este estudo apresenta uma análise espacial e temporal da agressividade climática na bacia do rio Guayas, localizada na região da costa e Andes do Equador. Foram selecionados dados mensais registrados de 30 estações pluviométricas para o período 1968-2014. As zonas de precipitação homogênea foram determinadas usando o método de k-médias. Os resultados indicaram duas regiões homogêneas predominantes, a primeira localizada a oeste da zona costeira e andina (85,2% da área da bacia), com um índice de agressividade alto e muito alto, enquanto a distribuição da precipitação na segunda região (Alta montanha) foi de muito baixa a baixa agressividade. O maior potencial de agressividade da chuva corresponde a um maior acúmulo de precipitação médio anual, o que indica uma alta influência sazonal das chuvas, ou seja, uma quantidade maior de chuva pode precipitar em um número reduzido de meses consecutivos. Os valores de concentração revelam um gradiente regional na direção leste-oeste que tem variação sazonal de moderada a forte. As análises das tendências da concentração mensal das chuvas não mostram mudanças significativas no período do estudo. Porém, nossas descobertas explicam o motivo das regiões oeste e sul da bacia do rio Guayas estarem expostas a problemas de sedimentação na parte inferior, resultado da capacidade erosiva da chuva na parte superior e média da bacia.

Globally, increasing competition for water and the effects of climate change have heightened the need to assess the sustainability of irrigation systems, particularly in strategic ecosystems such as the Andean páramos. However, there is a gap in methodological tools that integrate indicators adapted to community-based contexts and aligned with global frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Principles for Responsible Investment in Agriculture and Food Systems (RAI Principles). This study aims to define indicators for evaluating the sustainability of community-managed irrigation systems in Ecuador. The MESMIS framework and the Delphi technique were applied using a participatory approach that involved community leaders, technicians, academics, and students. A total of 31 indicators were defined, organized into seven attributes and five dimensions (environmental, social, economic, political, and technological), and aligned with nine SDGs and seven RAI Principles. The results reveal critical issues related to water use efficiency, governance, equity, and system resilience. The proposed framework enables a comprehensive and context-specific evaluation of irrigation systems and provides a practical tool for public policy design. In conclusion, this research helps bridge the existing methodological gap and reinforces the role of community irrigation systems as key pillars for sustainable and resilient agriculture.

Wildfire occurrence has increased sharply in the last two decades in the Peruvian Andes. There is, however, little research on wildfires and their impacts. This study explores the conditions conducive to wildfire during 2020. MODIS images were collected to estimate the development of vegetation. In addition, ground-based monthly and satellite-based daily precipitation data were collected. Daily precipitation regularity was evaluated using a concentration index (CI), while monthly precipitation was used to estimate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). We used also the Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI), which is a useful indicator of vegetation dynamics based on vegetation moisture. Our results do not indicate a direct link between rainfall regularity (lowest  CI values) and development of vegetation. Although the SPI drought analysis using seasonal rainfall indicated nearly normal conditions during 2019–2020, analysis of dry-day frequency (DDF) suggests that the dry period played an important role between September and November 2020, producing conditions similar to the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2016. GVMI also showed below-average values from April to November. We corroborate the usefulness of DDF for monitoring the potential increase in wildfire conditions. A controlled burn policy could offer a more useful way to reduce the impacts of wildfire.

La agresividad de la lluvia contribuye a la erosividad del suelo en regiones de alta montaña, y por tal a la sedimentación en la parte baja de la cuenca. La reducción de incertidumbre acerca de la agresividad de la lluvia en regiones costeras y andinas contribuye a la formulación de medidas de mitigación que contribuyan a la reducción de erosión y pérdida de nutrientes. Este estudio presenta un análisis espacial y temporal de la agresividad climática en la cuenca del río Guayas ubicada en la costa y Andes ecuatoriales. Se seleccionó datos mensuales registrados de 30 estaciones pluviométricas para el periodo de 1968-2014. Se determinó zonas homogéneas de precipitación mediante el método k-means. Los resultados indicaron dos regiones homogeneas predominantes, la primera ubicada al oeste en la zona costera y andina (85.2% del área de la Cuenca), con un índice de agresividad alto y muy alto, mientras que la distribución de la precipitación en la segunda región (Alta montaña) resultó de muy baja a baja agresividad. La mayor agresividad potencial de la lluvia le corresponde una mayor acumulación de precipitación promedio anual, lo que indica una alta influencia estacional de las lluvias, i.e, una mayor cantidad de lluvia puede precipitar en un número reducido de meses consecutivos.  Los valores de concentración revelan una gradiente regional en dirección este-oeste, que va de moderadamente a fuertemente estacional. El análisis de tendencias de la concentración de lluvia mensual no muestra cambios significativos en el periodo de estudio. No obstante, nuestros hallazgos explican el porqué la región oeste y sur de la cuenca del río Guayas está expuesta a problemas de sedimentación en la parte baja, producto de la capacidad erosiva de la lluvia en la parte alta y media de la cuenca.

In this paper, we analyze the allocation of climate adaptation aid in sub-national and local jurisdictions in Ecuador. We examine the influence of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and local capacity as explanatory variables for aid allocation. As part of the study, we introduce projections of physical vulnerability to determine whether inter-generational aspects of climate justice are taken into account, and use geographically weighted regression models to study the spatial distribution of aid allocation in sub-national and local jurisdictions. The findings show that physical and socioeconomic vulnerabilities influence the allocation of adaptation aid. However, projected changes in patterns of precipitation and temperatures are not associated with this variable. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of current climate aid is uneven, leaving clusters of vulnerable jurisdictions unattended. Finally, the study finds no association between local capacity and the allocation of adaptation aid. Findings suggests a bias towards allocating more adaptation aid in areas with more intense current weather events, and that the allocation of adaptation aid may not contribute to creating adaptation scenarios where justice for current and future generations is central to decision-making.