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Emissions of most pollutants that result in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) formation have been decreasing in the United States. However, this trend has not been uniform across all sectors or regions of the economy. We use integrated assessment models (IAMs) to compute marginal damages for PM2.5-related emissions for each county in the contiguous United States and match location-specific emissions with these marginal damages to compute economy-wide gross external damage (GED) due to premature mortality. We note 4 key findings: First, economy-wide, GED has decreased by more than 20% from 2008 to 2014. Second, while much of the air pollution policies have focused to date on the electricity sector, damages from farms are now larger than those from utilities. Indeed, farms have become the largest contributor to air pollution damages from PM2.5-related emissions. Third, 4 sectors, comprising less than 20% of the national gross domestic product (GDP), are responsible for ∼75% of GED attributable to economic activities. Fourth, uncertainty in GED estimates tends to be high for sectors with predominantly ground-level emissions because these emissions are usually estimated and not measured. These findings suggest that policymakers should target further emissions reductions from such sectors, particularly in transportation and agriculture.

Recycling lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) can supplement critical materials and improve the environmental sustainability of LIB supply chains. In this work, environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption, energy consumption) of industrial-scale production of battery-grade cathode materials from end-of-life LIBs are compared to those of conventional mining supply chains. Converting mixed-stream LIBs into battery-grade materials reduces environmental impacts by at least 58%. Recycling batteries to mixed metal products instead of discrete salts further reduces environmental impacts. Electricity consumption is identified as the principal contributor to all LIB recycling environmental impacts, and different electricity sources can change greenhouse gas emissions up to five times. Supply chain steps that precede refinement (material extraction and transport) contribute marginally to the environmental impacts of circular LIB supply chains (<4%), but are more significant in conventional supply chains (30%). This analysis provides insights for advancing sustainable LIB supply chains, and informs optimization of industrial-scale environmental impacts for emerging battery recycling efforts. Battery recycling LCA shows that recycling can reduce 58% of environmental impacts of making mixed salt solutions compared to conventional mining. Electricity and hydrometallurgical processes dominate impacts and show improvement opportunities.

Emissions from electric vehicles depend on when they are charged and which power plants meet the electricity demand. We introduce a new metric, the critical emissions factors (CEFs), as the emissions intensity of electricity that needs to be achieved when charging to ensure electric vehicles achieve lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions parity with some of the most efficient gasoline hybrid vehicles across the United States. We use a consequential framework, consider 2018 as our reference year, and account for the effects of temperature and drive cycle on vehicle efficiency to account for regional climate and use conditions. We find that the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt battery electric vehicles reduce lifecycle emissions relative to Toyota Prius and Honda Accord gasoline hybrids in most of the United States. However, in rural counties of the Midwest and the South, power grid marginal emissions reductions of up to 208 gCO 2 /kWh are still needed for these electric vehicles to have lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline hybrids. Except for the Northeast and Florida, the longer-range Tesla Model S battery-electric luxury sedan has higher emissions than the hybrids across the U.S., and the emissions intensity of the grid would need to decrease by up to 342 gCO 2 /kWh in some locations for it to achieve carbon parity with hybrid gasoline vehicles. Finally, we conclude that coal retirements and stricter standards on fossil fuel generators are more effective in the medium term at reducing consequential electric vehicle emissions than expansion of renewable capacity.

Despite decades of development, proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) still lack wide market acceptance in vehicles. To understand the expected trajectories of PEMFC attributes that influence adoption, we conducted an expert elicitation assessment of the current and expected future cost and performance of automotive PEMFCs. We elicited 39 experts’ assessments of PEMFC system cost, stack durability, and stack power density under a hypothetical, largescale production scenario. Experts assessed the median 2017 automotive cost to be $75/kW, stack durability to be 4,000 hours, and stack power density to be 2.5 kW/L. However, experts ranged widely in their assessments. Experts’ 2017 best cost assessments ranged from $40 to $500/kW, durability assessments ranged from 1,200 to 12,000 hours, and power density assessments ranged from 0.5 to 4 kW/L. Most respondents expected the 2020 cost to fall short of the 2020 target of the US Department of Energy (DOE). However, most respondents anticipated that the DOE’s ultimate target of $30/kW would be met by 2050 and a power density of 3 kW/L would be achieved by 2035. Fifteen experts thought that the DOE’s ultimate durability target of 8,000 hours would be met by 2050. In general, experts identified high Pt group metal loading as the most significant barrier to reducing cost. Recommended research and development (R&D) funding was allocated to “catalysts and electrodes,” followed in decreasing amount by “fuel cell performance and durability,” “membranes and electrolytes,” and “testing and technical assessment.” Our results could be used to inform public and private R&D decisions and technology roadmaps.

Wind and solar electricity generation account for 14% of total electricity generation in the United States and are expected to continue to grow in the next decade. While increased renewable penetration reduces system-wide emissions, the intermittent nature of these resources disrupts conventional thermal plant operations. Generation displacement exhibits a nonlinear relationship, as thermal units forced to operate at suboptimal levels experience efficiency penalties. Here we show that as renewable generation rises, thermal plants often operate sub-optimally, increasing emissions when forced to respond to variability. Using hourly emissions and generation data from California and Texas, we find that solar and wind energy significantly reduce expected emissions under normal operating conditions - by 92.6% in California and 91.1% in Texas. However, if renewables force plants to operate inefficiently, emissions from natural gas and coal plants could increase by 12% to 26%. These results highlight the complex interactions between renewable energy growth and thermal plant emissions, indicating that careful management of renewables integration is crucial to minimizing overall system-level CO 2 emissions, especially in electricity grids with inflexible thermal capacity. As renewable energy grows, fossil fuel power plants often operate inefficiently, raising emissions. This study shows that while wind and solar lower CO 2 overall, poor thermal plant performance under variable demand can offset some of the benefits.

Electric vehicles will contribute to emissions reductions in the United States, but their charging may challenge electricity grid operations. We present a data-driven, realistic model of charging demand that captures the diverse charging behaviours of future adopters in the US Western Interconnection. We study charging control and infrastructure build-out as critical factors shaping charging load and evaluate grid impact under rapid electric vehicle adoption with a detailed economic dispatch model of 2035 generation. We find that peak net electricity demand increases by up to 25% with forecast adoption and by 50% in a stress test with full electrification. Locally optimized controls and high home charging can strain the grid. Shifting instead to uncontrolled, daytime charging can reduce storage requirements, excess non-fossil fuel generation, ramping and emissions. Our results urge policymakers to reflect generation-level impacts in utility rates and deploy charging infrastructure that promotes a shift from home to daytime charging. The electrification of transport could present problems for power grids if charging is not managed well. Powell et al. model deep electrification scenarios for the western United States to understand how different types of charging control and scenarios of charging infrastructure produce different impacts.

Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Science , this issue p. eaas9793 Some energy services and industrial processes—such as long-distance freight transport, air travel, highly reliable electricity, and steel and cement manufacturing—are particularly difficult to provide without adding carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere. Rapidly growing demand for these services, combined with long lead times for technology development and long lifetimes of energy infrastructure, make decarbonization of these services both essential and urgent. We examine barriers and opportunities associated with these difficult-to-decarbonize services and processes, including possible technological solutions and research and development priorities. A range of existing technologies could meet future demands for these services and processes without net addition of CO 2 to the atmosphere, but their use may depend on a combination of cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.

Until there is an effective implementation of COVID-19 vaccination program, a robust testing strategy, along with prevention measures, will continue to be the most viable way to control disease spread. Such a strategy should rely on disparate diagnostic tests to prevent a slowdown in testing due to lack of materials and reagents imposed by supply chain problems, which happened at the beginning of the pandemic. In this study, we have established a single-tube test based on RT-LAMP that enables the visual detection of less than 100 viral genome copies of SARS-CoV-2 within 30 min. We benchmarked the assay against the gold standard test for COVID-19 diagnosis, RT-PCR, using 177 nasopharyngeal RNA samples. For viral loads above 100 copies, the RT-LAMP assay had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 96.1%. Additionally, we set up a RNA extraction-free RT-LAMP test capable of detecting SARS-CoV-2 directly from saliva samples, albeit with lower sensitivity. The saliva was self-collected and the collection tube remained closed until inactivation, thereby ensuring the protection of the testing personnel. As expected, RNA extraction from saliva samples increased the sensitivity of the test. To lower the costs associated with RNA extraction, we performed this step using an alternative protocol that uses plasmid DNA extraction columns. We also produced the enzymes needed for the assay and established an in-house-made RT-LAMP test independent of specific distribution channels. Finally, we developed a new colorimetric method that allowed the detection of LAMP products by the visualization of an evident color shift, regardless of the reaction pH.

Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.

Unabated coal power in India must be phased out by mid-century to achieve global climate targets under the Paris Agreement. Here we estimate the costs of hybrid power plants—lithium-ion battery storage with wind and solar PV—to replace coal generation. We design least cost mixes of these technologies to supply stylized baseload and load-following generation profiles in three Indian states—Karnataka, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Our analysis shows that availability of low cost capital, solar PV capital costs of at least $250 kW −1 , and battery storage capacity costs at least 50% cheaper than current levels will be required to phase out existing coal power plants. Phaseout by 2040 requires a 6% annual decline in the levelized cost of hybrid systems over the next two decades. We find that replacing coal generation with hybrid systems 99% of the hours over multiple decades is roughly 40% cheaper than 100% replacement, indicating a key role for other low cost grid flexibility mechanisms to help hasten coal phaseout. Solar PV is more suited to pairing with short duration storage than wind power. Overall, our results describe the challenging technological and policy advances needed to achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.