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"Irvine, Ian"
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Shock and awe or incentive-compatible harm reduction? Graphic health warnings on tobacco packages
Background
Graphic Health Warnings (GHWs) on cigarette packages were first introduced in Canada in 2001 and will become mandatory in the US as of January 2022. While previous studies have evaluated the impacts of GHWs, the data used in these studies have several shortcomings. The objective of this paper was to investigate the likely impact of such warnings in the US based upon the experience of Canada using hitherto unexplored monthly cigarette sales data, and to explore if alternative approaches involving risk-reduced products might be more successful in reducing smoking.
Methods
We used quasi-experimental segmented regression and difference-in-differences analyses. Data on monthly sales (i.e., shipments) of cigarettes from Canadian manufacturers to Canadian retailers during 1995–2005 were obtained from Statistics Canada.
Results
We found that GHWs did not have a significant impact on the sales of cigarettes in Canada. We propose an alternative type of graphical health messaging that actively combines information on how to quit with the legally required messaging. The novelty of the proposal is that it is incentive compatible for the supply side of the market and if adopted in several states, the measure could be tested by using a suitable treatment–control design.
Conclusions
Our findings imply that we should not expect any notable decline in sales or consumption as a result of implementation of GHWs in the US. The main impact of GHWs will be to add to the anti-smoking culture that has grown steadily over several decades, and this may impact smoking in the longer term.
Journal Article
The simple analytics of tobacco taxation with illegal supply
This paper examines the impact of tobacco excise taxes where legal and illegal supplies coexist. The government's objective is to minimize cigarettes smoked in the economy (or to maximize revenue or to minimize illegal activity). It reacts to a competitive illegal supply in an adjoining jurisdiction. A model of consumer choice is used to demonstrate how demand response to tax changes can yield counterintuitive results. While the model mimics the Canadian market, similar situations characterize the US and European markets. A novel element of the paper is the treatment of externalities on the supply side rather than the demand side. Ce mémoire examine l'impact des taxes sur la vente de tabac quand des offres légale et illégale coexistent. L'objectif du gouvernement est de minimiser les cigarettes fumées dans l'économie (ou de maximiser le revenu fiscal ou de minimiser l'activité illégale). Il doit prendre en compte l'offre concurrentielle illégale dans une juridiction contiguë. On utilise un modèle de choix du consommateur pour montrer comment la réaction de la demande aux changements dans les taxes peut engendrer des résultats contre-intuitifs. Bien que le modèle soit conçu pour le marché canadien, on trouve des situations avec des caractéristiques similaires dans les marchés américain et européens. Un élément novateur du mémoire est sa prise en compte des externalités du côté de l'offre plutôt que du côté de la demande.
Journal Article
The summon stone
The Merdrun, cruel warriors blooded by thousands of years of slaughter, are gather in the void between the worlds. Their summon stone is waking, corrupting good people as well as bad, and turning arcane places into magically polluted wastelands. If it is not destroyed it will create a portal and call this marauding army out of exile. Sulien, a nine-year-old girl endowed with untold gifts, sees the Merdrun leader in a nightmare - and he sees her. Karan and Llian must stop the greatest warrior in the void, to save their daughter and their world.
Book
The Taxation of Nicotine in Canada: A Harm-Reduction Approach to the Profusion of New Products
The Study in Brief A growing segment of the nicotine consumption market in Canada comes from so-called alternative nicotine delivery systems (ANDS).This class includes electronic-cigarettes (e-cigs), heated tobacco sticks and oral tobacco products. [...]policymakers must take this into account when considering tax rates for nicotine/tobacco-based products. The model here is Sweden where tobacco-related illnesses are a small fraction of the average levels experienced in the rest of Europe. Since the consumption of nicotine is habit forming, in some cases to the point of addiction, and can have adverse effects, particularly on youth, its use should be taxed beyond the basic sales-tax rate, even if its delivery is separated from combustible tobacco. [...]policymakers must take this into account when considering tax rates for nicotine/tobacco-based products. Since the 1963 US Surgeon General's report alerted the world to the dangers of smoking, reducing tobacco use in Canada has been a stated goal of every government.
Journal Article
CLEARING THE AIR: THE TAXATION AND REGULATION OF REDUCED-HARM NICOTINE PRODUCTS
[...]of high prices for legal combustibles, a thriving illegal market accompanies the legal market. In an enlightening paper, Balfour and twelve colleagues (2021) - all former presidents of the Society for Research in Nicotine and Tobacco - conducted a broad review of the literature and, on that basis, advocated for the public health community to pay more attention to e-cigarettes potential to reduce smokingrelated death and disease, better communication regarding the relative risks of smoking and vaping, and policies designed around relative riskcommunication. [...]this introduction, our approach recognizes that nicotine comes in many forms, some vastly more dangerous than others. [...]public policy's role is to ensure that individuals who might derive a benefit (perceived or real) from its use are informed of the risks that accompany its different forms while erecting barriers to its use in the case of youth.
Journal Article