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511 result(s) for "Islam, Kamrul"
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Regional variations of contraceptive use in Bangladesh: A disaggregate analysis by place of residence
This study advances current knowledge on contraceptive use in Bangladesh by providing new insights into the extent of regional variations in contraceptive use across rural and urban areas of Bangladesh. We examined the regional variations in contraceptive use among 15,699 currently married women ages 15-49 years using data from the 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). Multivariate logistic regression models of contraceptive use were calibrated with sociodemographic attributes and cultural factors. Based on the aggregate sample (i.e., rural and urban combined), we found significant regional variations in contraceptive use across the administrative divisions in Bangladesh. Based on a disaggregate sample (i.e., rural and urban separately), we found that there were significant differences in divisional variations in contraceptive use in rural areas. In contrast, no significant variation in contraceptive use across divisions in urban areas of Bangladesh was found. More specifically, among women living in rural areas, the Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions had higher odds of contraceptive use than the Barisal division, whereas the Chittagong and Sylhet divisions had much lower odds of contraceptive use even after adjusting for selected sociodemographic attributes and cultural factors. A separate analysis of the divisional variations in usage of modern methods of contraception also revealed similar findings with only one exception. Findings of this study provide an evidence-based direction for adapting a pragmatic approach to reducing the divisional disparity of contraceptive use in rural areas of Bangladesh.
Adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh: Trends and determinants
While studies on fertility and contraceptives issues are available, until recently adolescent motherhood has not received enough attention among policy makers in understanding adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh. We aimed to examine the trends and determinants of adolescent motherhood among women aged 15-49 years. For trend analysis we used all the 7 waves of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS, 1993-2014) data but for multivariate analysis 4 waves of BDHS (2004-2014). Two separate analyses were carried out on ever married women aged 15-49: (1) teenage girls aged 15-19 and (2) adult women aged 20 and above. The prevalence of adolescent motherhood had declined to a slower pace from 1993 to2014 (from 33.0% to 30.8%). Lower spousal age gap and higher education were found to be associated with lower likelihood of adolescent motherhood both among teenage girls [OR 0.447 (0.374-0.533)] and adult women [OR 0.451 (0.420-0.484)]. Teenage girls in the poorest wealth quintile [OR 1.712 [1.350-2.173] were more likely to experience adolescent motherhood than the richest wealth quintile. Teenage girls who had no education were found to have 2.76 times higher odds of adolescent motherhood than their counterparts who had higher than secondary education. Concerning the time effect, the odds of adolescent motherhood among adult women was found to decline overtime. Despite substantial decrease in total fertility rate in Bangladesh adolescent motherhood is still highly prevalent though declining from 1993 to 2014. Social policies including those addressing poverty, ensuring greater emphasis on education for women; and adolescent mothers in rural areas are needed.
Neurobiochemical Cross-talk Between COVID-19 and Alzheimer’s Disease
COVID-19, the global threat to humanity, shares etiological cofactors with multiple diseases including Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Understanding the common links between COVID-19 and AD would harness strategizing therapeutic approaches against both. Considering the urgency of formulating COVID-19 medication, its AD association and manifestations have been reviewed here, putting emphasis on memory and learning disruption. COVID-19 and AD share common links with respect to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors and pro-inflammatory markers such as interleukin-1 (IL-1), IL-6, cytoskeleton-associated protein 4 (CKAP4), galectin-9 (GAL-9 or Gal-9), and APOE4 allele. Common etiological factors and common manifestations described in this review would aid in developing therapeutic strategies for both COVID-19 and AD and thus impact on eradicating the ongoing global threat. Thus, people suffering from COVID-19 or who have come round of it as well as people at risk of developing AD or already suffering from AD, would be benefitted.
Climate change in Bangladesh: Temperature and rainfall climatology of Bangladesh for 1949–2013 and its implication on rice yield
Bangladesh has been ranked as one of the world’s top countries affected by climate change, particularly in terms of agricultural crop sector. The purpose of this study is to identify spatial and temporal changes and trends in long-term climate at local and national scales, as well as their implications for rice yield. In this study, Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect significant trends and the magnitude of changes in temperature and rainfall. The temperature and rainfall data observed and recorded at 35 meteorological stations in Bangladesh over 65-years in the time span between the years 1949 and 2013 have been used to detect these changes and trends of variation. The results show that mean annual T mean , T min , and T max have increased significantly by 0.13°C, 0.13°C, and 0.13°C/decade, respectively. The most significant increasing trend in seasonal temperatures for the respective T mean , T min , and T max was 0.18°C per decade (post-monsoon), 0.18°C/decade (winter), and 0.23°C/decade (post-monsoon), respectively. Furthermore, the mean annual and pre-monsoon rainfall showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 4.20 mm and 1.35 mm/year, respectively. This paper also evaluates climate variability impacts on three major rice crops, Aus, Aman, and Boro during 1970–2013. The results suggest that crop yield variability can be explained by climate variability during Aus , Aman , and Boro seasons by 33, 25, and 16%, respectively. Maximum temperature significantly affected the Aus and Aman crop yield, whereas rainfall significantly affected all rice crops’ yield. This study sheds light on sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change, which all relevant authorities should investigate in order to examine climate-resilient, high-yield crop cultivation.
Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? Exploring causes of heat waves in a tropical country
Heat waves significantly impact people’s lives and livelihoods and are becoming very alarming and recognized as hot topics worldwide, including in Bangladesh. However, much less is understood regarding recent hotspots, the frequency of heat waves over time, and their underlying causes in Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to explore the current scenario and frequency of heat waves and their possible causes across Bangladesh. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope techniques were used to determine seasonal and annual temperature trend patterns of heat wave frequencies. Daily maximum temperature datasets collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during 1991–2021 are applied. The frequency of days with Tmax≥ 36°C as the threshold was used to compute different types of heat waves based on the BMD’s operational definition. The results show that the mild heat wave (MHW) days followed the subsequent hotspot order: Rajshahi (103) > Chuadanga (79), Ishurdi (60), and Jessore (58), respectively. The frequency of days with Tmax≥36°C was persistence for many days in 2014, especially in the western part of Bangladesh compared to other parts. Similarly, the heat waves condition shown its deadliest event by increasing more days in 2021. The highest increasing trend was identified at the Patuakhali site, with a rate of 0.516 days/year, while the highest decreasing trend was noticed at the Chuadanga site, with a rate of -0.588 days/year. The frequency of days (Tmax≥36°C) is an increasing trend in the south-western part of Bangladesh. The synoptic condition in and around Bangladesh demonstrates that the entrance of heat waves in Bangladesh is due to the advection of higher temperatures from the south/southwest of the Bay of Bengal. The outcomes will guide the national appraisal of heatwave effects, shedding light on the primary causes of definite heatwave phenomena, which are crucial for developing practical adaptation tools.
Artificial Intelligence in Photovoltaic Fault Identification and Diagnosis: A Systematic Review
Photovoltaic (PV) fault detection is crucial because undetected PV faults can lead to significant energy losses, with some cases experiencing losses of up to 10%. The efficiency of PV systems depends upon the reliable detection and diagnosis of faults. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques has been a growing trend in addressing these issues. The goal of this systematic review is to offer a comprehensive overview of the recent advancements in AI-based methodologies for PV fault detection, consolidating the key findings from 31 research papers. An initial pool of 142 papers were identified, from which 31 were selected for in-depth review following the PRISMA guidelines. The title, objective, methods, and findings of each paper were analyzed, with a focus on machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches. ML and DL are particularly suitable for PV fault detection because of their capacity to process and analyze large amounts of data to identify complex patterns and anomalies. This study identified several AI techniques used for fault detection in PV systems, ranging from classical ML methods like k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and random forest to more advanced deep learning models such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Quantum circuits and infrared imagery were also explored as potential solutions. The analysis found that DL models, in general, outperformed traditional ML models in accuracy and efficiency. This study shows that AI methodologies have evolved and been increasingly applied in PV fault detection. The integration of AI in PV fault detection offers high accuracy and effectiveness. After reviewing these studies, we proposed an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based method for PV fault detection and classification.
Spatiotemporal analysis and predicting rainfall trends in a tropical monsoon-dominated country using MAKESENS and machine learning techniques
Spatiotemporal rainfall trend analysis as an indicator of climatic change provides critical information for improved water resource planning. However, the spatiotemporal changing behavior of rainfall is much less understood in a tropical monsoon-dominated country like Bangladesh. To this end, this research aims to analyze spatiotemporal variations in rainfall for the period 1980–2020 over Bangladesh at seasonal and monthly scales using MAKESENS, the Pettitt test, and innovative trend analysis. Multilayer Perception (MLP) neural network was used to predict the next 8 years' rainfall changes nationally in Bangladesh. To investigate the spatial pattern of rainfall trends, the inverse distance weighting model was adopted within the ArcGIS environment. Results show that mean annual rainfall is 2432.6 mm, of which 57.6% was recorded from July to August. The Mann–Kendall trend test reveals that 77% of stations are declining, and 23% have a rising trend in the monthly rainfall. More than 80% of stations face a declining trend from November to March and August. There is a declining trend for seasonal rainfall at 82% of stations during the pre-monsoon, 75% during the monsoon, and 100% during the post-monsoon. A significant decline trend was identified in the north-center during the pre-monsoon, the northern part during the monsoon, and the southern and northwestern portions during the post-monsoon season. Predicted rainfall by MLP till 2030 suggests that there will be little rain from November to February, and the maximum fluctuating rainfall will occur in 2025 and 2027–2029. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data findings suggested that changing rainfall patterns in Bangladesh may have been driven by rising or reducing convective precipitation rates, low cloud cover, and inadequate vertically integrated moisture divergence. Given the shortage of water resources and the anticipated rise in water demand, the study's findings have some implications for managing water resources in Bangladesh.
Optimizing the multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs for climate simulation over Bangladesh
This study aims to enhance the precision of climate simulations by optimizing a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for simulating precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin). Bangladesh, with its susceptibility to rapid seasonal shifts and various forms of flooding, is the focal point of this research. Historical simulations of 19 CMIP6 GCMs are meticulously compared with ERA5 data for 1986–2014. The bilinear interpolation technique is used to harmonize the resolution of GCM data with the observed grid points. Seven distinct error metrics, including Kling-Gupta Efficiency and normalized root mean squared error, quantify the grid-to-grid agreement between GCMs and ERA5 data. The metrics are integrated into the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for seasonal and annual rankings of GCMs. Finally, the ensemble means of top-performing models are estimated using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Arithmetic Mean (AM) for relative comparison. The outcomes of this study underscore the variability in GCM performance across different seasons, necessitating the development of an overarching ranking system. Results reveal ACCESS.CM2 is the preeminent GCM for precipitation, with an overall rating matric of 0.99, while INM.CM4.8 and UKESM1.0.LL excel in replicating Tmax and Tmin, with rating matrices of 1.0 and 0.88. In contrast, FGOALS.g3, KACE.1.0.G, and CanESM5 are the most underperformed models in estimating precipitation, Tmx, and Tmn, respectively. Overall, there are five models, ACCESS.ESM1.5, ACCESS.CM2, UKESM1.0.LL, MRI.ESM2.0, EC.Earth3 performed best in simulating both precipitation and temperature. The relative comparison of the ensemble means of the top five models revealed that the accuracy of BMA with Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.82, 0.65, and 0.82 surpasses AM with KGE of 0.59, 0.28, and 0.45 in capturing the spatial pattern of precipitation, Tmax and Tmin, respectively. This study offers invaluable insights into the selection of GCMs and ensemble methodologies for climate simulations in Bangladesh. Improving the accuracy of climate projections in this region can contribute significantly to climate science.
Predicting Road Crash Severity Using Classifier Models and Crash Hotspots
The rapid increase in traffic volume on urban roads, over time, has altered the global traffic scenario. Additionally, it has increased the number of road crashes, some of which are severe and fatal in nature. The identification of hazardous roadway sections using the spatial pattern analysis of crashes and recognition of the primary and contributing factors may assist in reducing the severity of road traffic crashes (R.T.C.s). For crash severity prediction, along with spatial patterns, various machine learning models are used, and the spatial relations of R.T.C.s with neighboring areas are evaluated. In this study, tree-based ensemble models (gradient boosting and random forest) and a logistic regression model are compared for the prediction of R.T.C. severity. Sample data of road crashes in Al-Ahsa, the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, were obtained from 2016 to 2018. Random forest (R.F.) identifies significant features strongly correlated with the severity of the R.T.C.s. The analysis findings showed that the cause of the crash and the type of collision are the most crucial elements affecting the severity of injuries in traffic crashes. Furthermore, the target-specific model interpretation results showed that distracted driving, speeding, and sudden lane changes significantly contributed to severe crashes. The random forest (R.F.) method surpassed other models in terms of injury severity, individual class accuracies, and collective prediction accuracy when using k-fold (k = 10) based on various performance metrics. In addition to taking into account the machine learning approach, this study also included spatial autocorrelation analysis based on G.I.S. for identifying crash hotspots, and Getis Ord Gi* statistics were devised to locate cluster zones with high- and low-severity crashes. The results demonstrated that the research area’s spatial dependence was very strong, and the spatial patterns were clustered with a distance threshold of 500 m. The analysis’s approaches, which included Getis Ord Gi*, the crash severity index, and the spatial autocorrelation of accident incidents according to Moran’s I, were found to be a successful way of locating and rating crash hotspots and crash severity. The techniques used in this study could be applied to large-scale crash data analysis while providing a useful tool for policymakers looking to improve roadway safety.
Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling and Future Potential Landscape Risk Assessment Using Markov-CA Model and Analytical Hierarchy Process
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has directly played an important role in the observed climate change. In this paper, we considered Dujiangyan City and its environs (DCEN) to study the future scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 based on the 2018 simulation results from 2007 and 2018 LULC maps. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of future LULCC, including the future potential landscape risk (FPLR) area of the 2008 great (8.0 Mw) earthquake of south-west China. The Cellular automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) model and multicriteria based analytical hierarchy process (MC-AHP) approach have been considered using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The analysis shows future LULC scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 along with the FPLR pattern. Based on the results of the future LULCC and FPLR scenarios, we have provided suggestions for the development in the close proximity of the fault lines for the future strong magnitude earthquakes. Our results suggest a better and safe planning approach in the Belt and Road Corridor (BRC) of China to control future Silk-Road Disaster, which will also be useful to urban planners for urban development in a safe and sustainable manner.