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172 result(s) for "JORDAN, CHRIS E."
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The importance of warm habitat to the growth regime of cold-water fishes
A common goal of biological adaptation planning is to identify and prioritize locations that remain suitably cool during the summer. This implicitly devalues areas that are ephemerally warm, even if they are suitable most of the year for mobile animals. Here we develop an alternative conceptual framework, the growth regime, which considers seasonal and landscape variation in physiological performance, focusing on riverine fish. Using temperature models for 14 river basins, we show that growth opportunities propagate up and down river networks on a seasonal basis, and that downstream habitats that are suboptimally warm in summer may actually provide the majority of growth potential expressed annually. We demonstrate with an agent-based simulation that the shoulder-season use of warmer downstream habitats can fuel annual fish production. Our work reveals a synergy between cold and warm habitats that could be fundamental to support cold-water fisheries, and highlights the risk in conservation strategies that underappreciate warm habitats.Modelling riverine fish growth across warm and cool sections of a river network, the authors demonstrate that habitats that are suboptimally warm in summer may actually provide the majority of growth potential. This highlights a risk in conservation strategies that devalue ephemerally warm habitats.
Alteration of stream temperature by natural and artificial beaver dams
Beaver are an integral component of hydrologic, geomorphic, and biotic processes within North American stream systems, and their propensity to build dams alters stream and riparian structure and function to the benefit of many aquatic and terrestrial species. Recognizing this, beaver relocation efforts and/or application of structures designed to mimic the function of beaver dams are increasingly being utilized as effective and cost-efficient stream and riparian restoration approaches. Despite these verities, the notion that beaver dams negatively impact stream habitat remains common, specifically the assumption that beaver dams increase stream temperatures during summer to the detriment of sensitive biota such as salmonids. In this study, we tracked beaver dam distributions and monitored water temperature throughout 34 km of stream for an eight-year period between 2007 and 2014. During this time the number of natural beaver dams within the study area increased by an order of magnitude, and an additional 4 km of stream were subject to a restoration manipulation that included installing a high-density of Beaver Dam Analog (BDA) structures designed to mimic the function of natural beaver dams. Our observations reveal several mechanisms by which beaver dam development may influence stream temperature regimes; including longitudinal buffering of diel summer temperature extrema at the reach scale due to increased surface water storage, and creation of cool-water channel scale temperature refugia through enhanced groundwater-surface water connectivity. Our results suggest that creation of natural and/or artificial beaver dams could be used to mitigate the impact of human induced thermal degradation that may threaten sensitive species.
Ecosystem experiment reveals benefits of natural and simulated beaver dams to a threatened population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss)
Beaver have been referred to as ecosystem engineers because of the large impacts their dam building activities have on the landscape; however, the benefits they may provide to fluvial fish species has been debated. We conducted a watershed-scale experiment to test how increasing beaver dam and colony persistence in a highly degraded incised stream affects the freshwater production of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Following the installation of beaver dam analogs (BDAs), we observed significant increases in the density, survival and production of juvenile steelhead without impacting upstream and downstream migrations. The steelhead response occurred as the quantity and complexity of their habitat increased. This study is the first large-scale experiment to quantify the benefits of beavers and BDAs to a fish population and its habitat. Beaver mediated restoration may be a viable and efficient strategy to recover ecosystem function of previously incised streams and to increase the production of imperiled fish populations.
Ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines
Reproductive tactics and migratory strategies in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines are inextricably linked through the effects of migration (or lack thereof) on age and size at maturity. In this review, we focus on the ecological and evolutionary patterns of freshwater maturation in salmonines, a key process resulting in the diversification of their life histories. We demonstrate that the energetics of maturation and reproduction provides a unifying theme for understanding both the proximate and ultimate causes of variation in reproductive schedules among species, populations, and the sexes. We use probabilistic maturation reaction norms to illustrate how variation in individual condition, in terms of body size, growth rate, and lipid storage, influences the timing of maturation. This useful framework integrates both genetic and environmental contributions to conditional strategies for maturation and, in doing so, demonstrates how flexible life histories can be both heritable and subject to strong environmental influences. We review evidence that the propensity for freshwater maturation in partially anadromous species is predictable across environmental gradients at geographic and local spatial scales. We note that growth is commonly associated with the propensity for freshwater maturation, but that life-history responses to changes in growth caused by temperature may be strikingly different than changes caused by differences in food availability. We conclude by exploring how contemporary management actions can constrain or promote the diversity of maturation phenotypes in Pacific and Atlantic salmonines and caution against underestimating the role of freshwater maturing forms in maintaining the resiliency of these iconic species.
Using Inverse Probability Bootstrap Sampling to Eliminate Sample Induced Bias in Model Based Analysis of Unequal Probability Samples
In ecology, as in other research fields, efficient sampling for population estimation often drives sample designs toward unequal probability sampling, such as in stratified sampling. Design based statistical analysis tools are appropriate for seamless integration of sample design into the statistical analysis. However, it is also common and necessary, after a sampling design has been implemented, to use datasets to address questions that, in many cases, were not considered during the sampling design phase. Questions may arise requiring the use of model based statistical tools such as multiple regression, quantile regression, or regression tree analysis. However, such model based tools may require, for ensuring unbiased estimation, data from simple random samples, which can be problematic when analyzing data from unequal probability designs. Despite numerous method specific tools available to properly account for sampling design, too often in the analysis of ecological data, sample design is ignored and consequences are not properly considered. We demonstrate here that violation of this assumption can lead to biased parameter estimates in ecological research. In addition, to the set of tools available for researchers to properly account for sampling design in model based analysis, we introduce inverse probability bootstrapping (IPB). Inverse probability bootstrapping is an easily implemented method for obtaining equal probability re-samples from a probability sample, from which unbiased model based estimates can be made. We demonstrate the potential for bias in model-based analyses that ignore sample inclusion probabilities, and the effectiveness of IPB sampling in eliminating this bias, using both simulated and actual ecological data. For illustration, we considered three model based analysis tools--linear regression, quantile regression, and boosted regression tree analysis. In all models, using both simulated and actual ecological data, we found inferences to be biased, sometimes severely, when sample inclusion probabilities were ignored, while IPB sampling effectively produced unbiased parameter estimates.
Developing an Effective Model for Predicting Spatially and Temporally Continuous Stream Temperatures from Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperatures
Although water temperature is important to stream biota, it is difficult to collect in a spatially and temporally continuous fashion. We used remotely-sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST) data to estimate mean daily stream temperature for every confluence-to-confluence reach in the John Day River, OR, USA for a ten year period. Models were built at three spatial scales: site-specific, subwatershed, and basin-wide. Model quality was assessed using jackknife and cross-validation. Model metrics for linear regressions of the predicted vs. observed data across all sites and years: site-specific r2 = 0.95, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) = 1.25 °C; subwatershed r2 = 0.88, RMSE = 2.02 °C; and basin-wide r2 = 0.87, RMSE = 2.12 °C. Similar analyses were conducted using 2012 eight-day composite LST and eight-day mean stream temperature in five watersheds in the interior Columbia River basin. Mean model metrics across all basins: r2 = 0.91, RMSE = 1.29 °C. Sensitivity analyses indicated accurate basin-wide models can be parameterized using data from as few as four temperature logger sites. This approach generates robust estimates of stream temperature through time for broad spatial regions for which there is only spatially and temporally patchy observational data, and may be useful for managers and researchers interested in stream biota.
Using Beaver Dams to Restore Incised Stream Ecosystems
Biogenic features such as beaver dams, large wood, and live vegetation are essential to the maintenance of complex stream ecosystems, but these features are largely absent from models of how streams change over time. Many streams have incised because of changing climate or land-use practices. Because incised streams provide limited benefits to biota, they are a common focus of restoration efforts. Contemporary models of long-term change in streams are focused primarily on physical characteristics, and most restoration efforts are also focused on manipulating physical rather than ecological processes. We present an alternative view, that stream restoration is an ecosystem process, and suggest that the recovery of incised streams is largely dependent on the interaction of biogenic structures with physical fluvial processes. In particular, we propose that live vegetation and beaver dams or beaver dam analogues can substantially accelerate the recovery of incised streams and can help create and maintain complex fluvial ecosystems.
Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.
A Large-Scale, Multispecies Status Assessment: Anadromous Salmonids in the Columbia River Basin
Twelve salmonid evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) throughout the Columbia River Basin are currently listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act; these ESUs are affected differentially by a variety of human activities. We present a standardized quantitative status and risk assessment for 152 listed salmonid stocks in these ESUs and 24 nonlisted stocks. Using data from 1980-2000, which represents a time of stable conditions in the Columbia River hydropower system and a period of ocean conditions generally regarded as poor for Columbia Basin salmonids, we estimated the status of these stocks under two different assumptions: that hatchery-reared spawners were not reproducing during the period of the censuses, or that hatchery-reared spawners were reproducing and thus that reproduction from hatchery inputs was masking population trends. We repeated the analyses using a longer time period containing both \"good\" and \"bad\" ocean conditions (1965-2000) as a first step toward determining whether recent apparent declines are a result of sampling a period of poor ocean conditions. All the listed ESUs except Columbia River chum showed declining trends with estimated long-term population growth rates (λ's) ranging from 0.85 to 1.0, under the assumption that hatchery fish were not reproducing and not masking the true λ. If hatchery fish were reproducing, the estimated λ's ranged from 0.62 to 0.89, indicating extremely low natural reproduction and survival. For most ESUs, there was no significant decline in population growth rates calculated for the 1980-2000 vs. 1965-2000 time periods, suggesting that the current population status for most ESUs is not solely a result of changes in ocean conditions, and that without other changes, risks will persist even during upturns in ocean conditions. However, estimated population growth rates for the Snake River spring-summer chinook salmon and steelhead ESUs were significantly lower during the longer time period. This difference may be due to a period of dam building on the Snake River during the 1960s and 1970s. For 33 stocks and seven ESUs, the probability of extinction could be estimated. The estimates were generally low for all ESUs with the exception of Upper Columbia River spring chinook and Upper Willamette River steelhead. The probability of 90% decline could be estimated for all stocks. The mean probability of 90% decline in 50 years was highest for Upper Columbia River spring chinook (95% mean probability across all stocks within the ESU) and Lower Columbia River steelhead (80% mean probability). We estimated the effects of two different management actions on long-term growth rates for the ESUs. Harvest reductions offer a means to mitigate risks for ESUs that bear substantial harvest pressure, but they are unlikely to increase population growth rates enough to produce stable or increasing trends for all ESUs. Similarly, anticipated improvements to passage survival through the Snake and mainstem Columbia hydropower systems may be important, but additional actions are likely to be necessary to recover affected ESUs.