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If output gaps in a currency union are not sufficiently coherent, the common monetary policy will not be optimal for all countries or regions in the union. It is common practice to measure coherence of output gaps by a correlation coefficient. We propose new measures of output gap coherence, which take differences in the signs and/or amplitudes of the output gaps more adequately into account than the correlation coefficient. We apply these measures to the euro area, using the US as a benchmark. We also examine how sensitive our findings are to different ways of calculating the output gaps.

We investigate the propagation of financial turbulence via trade, capital flows, and distance channels in the pre-crisis and Global Financial Crisis periods by modeling spillover and interdependence effects, using spatial econometric techniques. Financial turbulence is proxied by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans in a country. Spillover effects are defined as significant changes in the linkages between countries due to a shock, and interdependence effects as strong linkages among pairs of countries independent of shocks. Using annual data of 40 countries from 2003 to 2010, we find that interdependence and spillover effects should be jointly analyzed. Furthermore, our results suggest that the capital flows channel is more important than the other two channels in capturing propagation of financial turbulence. By deriving what is known in the spatial econometrics literature as direct and indirect effect estimates, we show that the marginal effects of macroeconomic variables (like GDP growth, inflation, and credit growth) on financial turbulence take different forms during a crisis than in tranquil periods.

Objective: To describe the systematic analysis of constitutional de novo apparently balanced translocations in patients presenting with abnormal phenotypes, characterise the structural chromosome rearrangements, map the translocation breakpoints, and report detectable genomic imbalances. Methods: DNA microarrays were used with a resolution of 1 Mb for the detailed genome-wide analysis of the patients. Array CGH was used to screen for genomic imbalance and array painting to map chromosome breakpoints rapidly. These two methods facilitate rapid analysis of translocation breakpoints and screening for cryptic chromosome imbalance. Breakpoints of rearrangements were further refined (to the level of spanning clones) using fluorescence in situ hybridisation where appropriate. Results: Unexpected additional complexity or genome imbalance was found in six of 10 patients studied. The patients could be grouped according to the general nature of the karyotype rearrangement as follows: (A) three cases with complex multiple rearrangements including deletions, inversions, and insertions at or near one or both breakpoints; (B) three cases in which, while the translocations appeared to be balanced, microarray analysis identified previously unrecognised imbalance on chromosomes unrelated to the translocation; (C) four cases in which the translocation breakpoints appeared simple and balanced at the resolution used. Conclusions: This high level of unexpected rearrangement complexity, if generally confirmed in the study of further patients, will have an impact on current diagnostic investigations of this type and provides an argument for the more widespread adoption of microarray analysis or other high resolution genome-wide screens for chromosome imbalance and rearrangement.

Turner's syndrome is a sporadic disorder of human females in which all or part of one X chromosome is deleted. Intelligence is usually normal but social adjustment problems are common. Here we report a study of 80 females with Turner's syndrome and a single X chromosome, in 55 of which the X was maternally derived (45,X[m]) and in 25 it was of paternal origin (45,X[p]). Members of the 45,X[p] group were significantly better adjusted, with superior verbal and higher-order executive function skills, which mediate social interactions. Our observations suggest that there is a genetic locus for social cognition, which is imprinted and is not expressed from the maternally derived X chromosome. Neuropsychological and molecular investigations of eight females with partial deletions of the short arm of the X chromosome indicate that the putative imprinted locus escapes X-inactivation, and probably lies on Xq or close to the centromere on Xp. If expressed only from the X chromosome of paternal origin, the existence of this locus could explain why 46,XY males (whose single X chromosome is maternal) are more vulnerable to developmental disorders of language and social cognition, such as autism, than are 46,XX females.

Background: In cultured, dividing transformed T lymphocytes and in dividing bone marrow cells from normal men and those with a haematological malignancy, sex chromosome aneuploidy has been found to increase in prevalence and degree with age. This has rarely been investigated in non-dividing uncultured blood samples. The loss and gain of the X chromosome in dividing transformed lymphocytes in women with age is much more frequent than that of the Y chromosome in males. However, paradoxically X chromosome aneuploidy is rarely seen in the dividing cells of bone marrow of females. Methods: In blood samples from 565 men with breast cancer and 54 control men from the England and Wales general population, 80 cell nuclei per sample were scored for presence of X and Y chromosomes using fluorescent centromeric probes. Results: Sex chromosome aneuploidy, largely Y chromosome loss, was present in 63% of cases and 57% of controls, with the prevalence and degree of aneuploidy increasingly sharply and highly significantly with age. At ages 65–80 years, 71% of cases and 85% of controls showed aneuploidy and 15% and 25%, respectively, had ⩾10% of cells aneuploid. Allowing for age, aneuploidy was less prevalent ( P =0.03) in cases than controls. Conclusion: Sex chromosome aneuploidy in non-dividing nuclei of peripheral blood cells is frequent in adult men, the prevalence and degree increasing sharply with age. The possible relation of sex chromosome aneuploidy to breast cancer risk in men, and to cancer risk generally, needs further investigation, ideally in cohort studies.

A computational parameter study of the viscous axisymmetric supersonic flow over a double cone is made with a view to determining the boundary of the region in which such flows are unsteady. The study is restricted to the case when the boundary layer is laminar. The features of both the steady and unsteady flows in different characteristic regions of the parameter space are described. In particular, the phenomenon of pulsating flow typical of spiked blunt bodies (small first-cone angle, $\\theta _1$, and large second-cone angle, $\\theta _2$), is shown to be inviscid in nature. In $\\theta _1$–$\\theta _2$ space, the region of unsteady flow is enclosed in a loop with a lower and an upper $\\theta _2$ branch with a maximum $\\theta _1$ between. The location of the lower $\\theta _2$ branch is determined by the second-cone detachment angle $\\theta _{2d}$. For this reason, the gas model in one of the conditions is chosen to be thermally perfect carbon dioxide (at Mach number 8) for which $\\theta _{2d}$ is quite large. In the other cases, the gas model is perfect-gas nitrogen at Mach numbers 2, 4 and 7.7. In the hypersonic range, within the uncertainties, and in the parameter range covered, the unsteadiness boundary is shown to depend on only three dimensionless parameters.

We examine the dynamic impact of household borrowing on the trade balance using data from 32 developing countries and 36 developed countries over the 1980-2020 period. Our findings suggest that the impact of household borrowing on the trade balance is negative, both in the short and long run, but the effects are more pronounced in developing countries. Moreover, we find that for developing countries the negative effect of household borrowing on the trade balance is achieved via boosting imports. In developed countries, household borrowing stimulates both imports and exports, where the effect on imports is larger.

One of the most dramatic effects of vibrational and chemical non-equilibrium in hypersonic flows occurs in the bow-shock detachment process in flow over a wedge. This was shown theoretically and in reflected shock tunnel experiments by Hornung & Smith (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 93, 1979, pp. 225–239). In the present work, the effect is first demonstrated by computation of two-dimensional non-equilibrium flows. The effect of the finite transverse extent of the wedge is then studied by three-dimensional computations of non-relaxing flows. An analytical formula is obtained that gives the shock detachment distance of a finite wedge for ideal-gas and equilibrium flows. In the experiment, the finite transverse extent of the wedge competes with the non-equilibrium effects, as each introduces a new length scale. The carbon dioxide and nitrogen flows of the experiment are therefore computed in three dimensions and with two-temperature chemistry accounting for vibrational and chemical non-equilibrium. In the case of nitrogen flow, the agreement between experiment and computation is not good, the experimental detachment distance being larger. A number of possible reasons are quantitatively examined. A conclusive resolution of the discrepancy is considered to require a repeat of the experiment with more accurately characterized conditions. In the case of the carbon dioxide experiments, the computed results agree remarkably well with experiment. This is partially due to the fact that the condition is very close to equilibrium, where the sensitivity of the detachment process to relaxation effects is small. The analytical expression for the dimensionless detachment distance agrees very well with all the three-dimensional computations of non-relaxing flows.

Cattel’s (Multivar Behav Res 1:245–276, 1966) heuristic determines the number of factors as the elbow point between ‘steep’ and ‘not steep’ in the scree plot. In contrast, an elbow is by definition absent in points on a hyberbole with corresponding equisized surfaces. We formalize this heuristic and propose a criterion to determine the number of factors by comparing surfaces under the scree plot. Monte Carlo simulations shows that the finite-sample properties of our proposed criterion outperform benchmarks in the dynamic factor model literature.

The paper contributes to a small but growing literature that estimates tax reaction functions of governments competing with other governments. We analyze consumption tax competition between US states, employing a panel of state-level data for 1977–2003. More specifically, we study the impact of a state’s spatial characteristics (i.e., its size, geographic position, and border length) on the strategic interaction with its neighbors. For this purpose, we calculate for each state an average effective consumption tax rate, which covers both sales and excise taxes. In addition, we pay attention to dynamics by including lagged dependent variables in the tax reaction function. We find overwhelming evidence for strategic interaction among state governments, but only partial support for the effect of spatial characteristics on tax setting. Tax competition seems to have lessened in the 1990s compared to the early 1980s.