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"Jacoby, Linda S"
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Crime, Violence, and Global Warming
Crime, Violence, and Global Warming introduces the many connections between climate change and criminal activity. Conflict over natural resources can escalate to state and non-state actors, resulting in wars, asymmetrical warfare, and terrorism. Crank and Jacoby apply criminological theory to each aspect of this complicated web, helping readers to evaluate conflicting claims about global warming and to analyze evidence of the current and potential impact of climate change on conflict and crime. Beginning with an overview of the science of global warming, the authors move on to the links between climate change, scarce resources, and crime. Their approach takes in the full scope of causes and consequences, present and future, in the United States and throughout the world. The book concludes by looking ahead at the problem of forecasting future security implications if global warming continues or accelerates. This fresh approach to the criminology of climate change challenges readers to examine all sides of this controversial question and to formulate their own analysis of our planet's future.
eBook
2 - What Is Global Warming?
In this chapter, we introduce students to the basic notion of global warming. We begin with a discussion of the historical ordinariness of global temperature swings, reviewing patterns of temperature changes across glaciations in the most recent glacial period. This is followed by a discussion of the nature of greenhouse gases, how they heat the planet, and the centrality of CO2 in the production of weather. The earth’s energy budget is presented as a chart that illustrates how various elements of the planet and its atmosphere interact to arrive at average temperatures. Following this is a discussion of human-created sources of greenhouse gases heating the planet, and here we introduce the concept of climate forcings, or external variables that are responsible for causing global temperature increases (or decreases). Primary and secondary feedbacks are shown as mechanisms in which warming, once it reaches a certain level, tends to become self-fulfilling, increasing the rate and level of heating beyond human capacity to intervene. Critical tipping points, or points at which fundamental changes in the climate will occur, are followed by a discussion of climate sensitivity, which is the assessment of the amount of temperature increase associated with increments of greenhouse gases. Finally, we ask “how hot will it get,” and close with a discussion of overall heating capacity for short- and long-term periods and a discussion of the duration of greenhouse gases, once introduced into the atmosphere.
Book Chapter
8 - The Future of Migration: A Planet of Megacities
The central theme of this chapter is that the greatest migration in the history of the human race, the movement of people to coastal megacities, is on a collision course with rising seas, with no good outcomes foreseen. The chapter begins with a discussion of migration patterns as they pertain to megacities—cities over 10 million—and megadeltas, which are large cities located on expansive, fertile coastal deltas around the world. Several megacities are briefly reviewed. We discuss their projected population growth, their access to fresh water, and their precarious locations on low-lying, ocean-facing deltas. Next, we discuss the megacity phenomenon. Modernization, as it occurred in the United States and Europe in the nineteenth century, is only now occurring in the developing world. Citizens across the globe seek the same advantages produced by earlier waves of modernization. A consequence of this is urbanization, which is the steady movement of people from rural to urban areas, with the vast majority moving to megacities. Increasingly, the cities are a core city surrounded by a large zone characterized by migrant settlers, inequality, and poverty. Some of these zones contain millions of citizens, and the core city cannot afford basic services such as sewer, security, water, and public health care. Consequently, they are vulnerable to high levels of crime of all types, and increasingly, of organized crime. These areas are fated for disaster: they tend to be where the oceans are inundating low areas of the city.
Book Chapter
7 - Refugee Migration and Settlement Amid Climate change: A Prescription for violence?
This chapter begins with a discussion of the term “refugee,” and distinguishes the terms refugee, climate refugee, and global warming refugee. Refugees, we note, are substantially vulnerable to violence of all kinds, from governments to organized crime to small business entrepreneurs. A discussion of Typhoon Haiyan, seemingly the most powerful cyclonic storm in our history, shows how large populations can emerge who are destitute and absent resources even when they decide to stay in their home areas, and consequently become a substantial economic strain for local governments. An alternative perspective is presented, arguing that after calamity, those most severely damaged can provide a stabilizing force for their communities. We follow this discussion with a section on refugees and opportunity theory. Refugees, because their wealth is typically either what they carry or their own bodies, and because they rarely have adequate security or guardianship, are vulnerable to the most horrific crimes, in particular, sex slavery (though arguably some crimes are quite a bit worse). This is followed by an exploration of the effects of global warming on refugee populations, with a particular focus on a four degree Celsius increase in global temperatures. We close by noting that the status “climate refugee” is not currently recognized by the United Nations, putting millions of individuals at risk without help of international intervention.
Book Chapter
4 - Modeling the Relationship Between Global Warming, Violence, and Crime
One of the challenges of global warming research to the social sciences is that physical science research modalities are different. Consequently, efforts to tie it to the social sciences, particularly those related to violence and crime, are difficult to develop. This chapter looks at two models to assess the linkages between global warming and crime. The first, the Homer-Dixon model, uses a resource scarcity model to look at these linkages. According to the Homer-Dixon model, many aspects of global warming produce scarcities such as food shortages, ranch and farmland loss, and clean-water shortages. By tracing the indirect effects of scarcities through intervening variables of migration and state hardening, the model allows us to see various kinds of crime and violence that might happen under global warming conditions. The second model is the Agnew model, developed to assess theoretical linkages between crime and global warming, primarily focusing on social disorganization and strain perspectives. The second model fills a critical shortcoming in the first model; it provides a nuanced notion of crime and crime theory. Hence, it provides a needed “back end” of crime outcomes to tie into the Homer-Dixon model. Also, we discuss the way in which many dimensions of global warming can be modeled relatively straightforwardly into a routine activities perspective, where the social and economic disruptions caused by global warming give rise to new patterns of human activity and, consequently, new patterns of criminal and predatory activities.
Book Chapter
12 - Conclusion: Whither the Social Contract?
This chapter briefly summarizes and makes recommendations. This book has, on each substantive topic, asked three questions: (1) What is the current state of the risk, (2) what are the central developments for risk in the coming years in each area considered, and (3) how will global warming affect those risks? We present highlights of the central findings. Those findings are organized under the following categories: Aspects of global warming, resource scarcities, migration, crime and violence, and state security. We then present our recommendations. Our recommendations are specifically for the fields of criminology and criminal justice, though they are equally applicable to sister fields of public administration, sociology, political science, and military science. Six recommendations are provided. These include aligning part of our methods and stats with earth sciences so that we can work together in anticipating, mitigating, or adapting to global warming changes; developing the field focus on global warming that a strong peer-reviewed journal would provide; and procuring scholarships and developing postdoctorate opportunities in the field of global warming.
Book Chapter